James Loney straight up.

Lowell (legitimate player = 2 1st round picks due to impending FA status), Bowden (top prospect), Hansen (used to be top prospect, will require tweaking), Murphy (cheap 4th OF), Pauley (AAAA arm)

James Loney straight up.

I don't think I'd do that. Loney won't show the power of Teixeira, but in other ways is a better hitter (especially for average) than Teixeira, is just over 4 years younger, and the salary difference for 2008 is likely to be well over $10 million - enough to sign a good player, or the difference between a fill in player at another position and a superstar.

Let's put it this way - the difference over the next 4+ years in salary between Teixeira and Loney (figuring Teixeira will sign a huge contract after 2008) is enough to eat Pierre's remaining contract, with a lot of money left over. But I'm not convinced the performance difference will be all that great - Teixeira's an excellent hitter, but not one of the great hitters in baseball, once you take away the effects of playing in a great hitter's park. And I expect Loney to hit like Mark Grace - but with a better batting average. IOW, a very good hitter, but not a truly elite first baseman. Sort of like Teixeira's overall value.

Keep in mind that I'm a Loney fanboy - but Teixeira IS overrated.

Keep in mind that I'm a Loney fanboy - but Teixeira IS overrated.

Maybe a little, but I don't think near to the extent that you're making it out to be. Teixeira is a guy who has hit 30+ HRs every year. With the exception of this year, he's played in 140 games or more (162 the last two years). He's 27, so just entering his prime. Consistently he puts up ~.370 in OBP and a BA between .280-.300. That's a damn good player. Is he David Ortiz? No, but he's a good player that is going to show a ton of power, get on base while still maintaining good contact rates, and his best years may still be coming. Overpaid, yeah, but who isn't?

I like Loney, too. But, if he's Mark Grace II, then I think you have to make this trade. In Grace's best seasons he was hitting .315-.330, so if you're expecting more than that, you're basically looking for Tony Gwynn. I don't think Loney's that good.

a very good hitter, but not a truly elite first baseman. Sort of like Teixeira's overall value.

If Teixiera isn't considered an elite 1B (and that would probably depend on the definition of elite and who is 1B), then Loney is well below him. Positional value has to account for something. Just like Mark Grace was nowhere near close to an elite 1B because he didn't hit for power, Loney will have the same problem. Power's a premium, you have to pay for it. Especially when you really don't have an answer for it somewhere else.

I'm wary of texas hitters.

I like Loney, too. But, if he's Mark Grace II, then I think you have to make this trade. In Grace's best seasons he was hitting .315-.330, so if you're expecting more than that, you're basically looking for Tony Gwynn. I don't think Loney's that good.

I know he hasn't hit many homers in the minors but Loney did hit a fair share of doubles and looks like the type of hitter that will add power as he ages. In addition, he has hit 7 homers in 209 AB which isn't bad for a young guy.

He just looks like a Derek Lee type.

Incidentally, if Loney is Mark Grace II, then with the money difference, wouldn't this be a terrible trade?

Teixeira is a guy who, despite all the expectations, has so far put up one excellent complete season - in 2005, when he was seventh in the league in OPS+. The other years he's been in the 120s, which is good but not great for a first baseman.

Incidentally, a small sample size factoid I noticed - through the age that Loney is (as of last night's game) Teixeira had 237 major league plate appearances, while Loney has had 230. Teixeira hit .248/.339/.468 in them, while Loney has hit .330/.387/.555. Yes, Loney's totals are likely flukish, but that's interesting to say the least.

Power is nice, but I'm more concerned about the total package - and Loney was always considered by scouts in the minors to have a beautiful swing that would produce a high batting average in the majors, combined with a decent walk rate and good doubles power. I would suspect he's not likely to be as good as Teixeira's best seasons, but he should be very valuable still. And you omitted one of my major points. The price difference. Loney has 5 years after this one until free agency. During that time Teixeira will be paid vastly more than Loney - conservatively $60 million, maybe as much as $90 million. That's money that can be spent elsewhere by the Dodgers. For instance, if they decided to pursue ARod after this season, having that much extra money in the budget would make a huge difference. Or if they want to go after Zambrano, that money would be the difference between signing him and signing a fourth starter type. The Dodgers would be better off getting major help elsewhere, than trading Loney and paying Teixeira.

The Rangers aren't going to be beating the Mariners down the stretch, are they?

I'm wary of texas hitters

Because ...? If it's because the park inflates their numbers, just deflate them a little; I imagine that will be the case with Teix. But most of the star hitters who have left Texas over the years have done just as well elsewhere, allowing for different contexts. Juan Gonzalez hit a ton in Cleveland. Palmeiro did fine in Baltimore. AROD won another MVP in New York. Pudge had a couple of excellent years left after leaving Texas. I don't think there's any reason to believe that the park in Texas creates an illusion of good hitting by players who are actually mediocre.

I just hope Little Jon gets more than Kei Igawa, Carl Pavano, and Cory Lidle when he giftwraps Teixeira to the MFY.

I just hope Little Jon gets more than Kei Igawa, Carl Pavano, and Cory Lidle when he giftwraps Teixeira to the MFY.


Don't worry, he won't take on Pavano's contract, he'll make sure he gets Tyler Clipboard.

btw, I used the Cory Lidle joke here first. Just wanted to make that clear.

Jim Bowden or Ned Colletti will trade for Lidle this year.

Ned Colletti will trade for Lidle this year.

And it will be a better trade than most of the ones he's made so far.