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From the Sox point of view, they seem to be fixated on Salty (which I guess aligns with the Rangers' preference to keep Teagarden); I think there are still some questions about whether or not he'll stick behind the plate so I doubt the Sox would give up Buchholz for him, but I think they'd let Texas choose between Bowden and Masterson as the basis for a deal.
At least as of last July the Rangers didn't seem to think much of Bowden. As you'll recall, BA reported that the Rangers preferred Kason Gabbard to Bowden in the Gagne deal.
Now, Bowden has probably upped his value since then and the report was a little vague so it may be leaving out important pieces of information, but it's a serious potential hangup in the supposedly obvious Tex catching for Sox pitching rumored deals.
Sox fans don't want to give up Buchholz for any of the Rangers catchers. And while Sox fans may think of Bowden and Masterson as very valuable plan B prospects to deal, the Rangers may see those two as a guy they liked less than Gabbard not so long ago and a nice ROOGY setup man.
If so, then it's going to be tough for the Sox and Rangers to find a match even though each team does have excess of what they other team wants.
I don't see how Texas gives up Salty for less than Buchholz. Elite catching prospects are certainly at least as scarce as elite pitching prospects, and Buchholz hasn't exactly established himself at the big league level either.
Whatever risk there is of Saltalamacchia not sticking at C is certainly matched by the risk of Buchholz flaming out. I'd say the risk of the pitcher is likely to be greater.
I had forgotten about Gabbard. However we don't know exactly how the offer for Gagne was structured; I don't think the Sox offered Murphy, Beltre, and Bowden or Gabbard with the Rangers choosing Gabbard. I think the offered deals were either Murphy, Gabbard, and Beltre or Murphy and Bowden (maybe + something) with the Rangers prefering Beltre to Bowden.
If Salty were an elite catching prospect, he wouldn't be available at all. There are too many questions about his ability to stick behind the dish (with the rumor being that the Rangers don't think he'll stick, but the Sox thinking he will). He doesn't have much value as a 1Bman. Based on his stuff, I think Buchholz has a lot less "flame out potential."
Most of the "flame out" potential for a 23 year-old SP is injury. Stuff has nothing to do with it.
This is a good point, but at the same time it's the boat the Rangers are in by wanting young pitching. I think any team would have a much harder time making a case for going into negotiations saying "we are actively trying to trade for a riskier commodity. And because the commodity we want carries more risk, we expect to get a better return." I think most teams expect the distribution of risk to be based on the players in question.
In this case it is probably up to the Rangers to do their due dilligence on the medical records of their potential trade targets (and in this case both Masterson and Bowden are at least guys with big, pitcher's frames) rather than taking an approach where they should get a much better prospect by assessing risk across an abstract population.
I was going to make fun of this post, but I:
1) Had no idea Greinke was still only 24. It seems like he's been in the majors for 8 years. (He has been a regular for 5, since he was 20.)
2) Had no idea he threw 200 IP of 120+ ERA+ last year, after being moved back to the rotation.
If you add them altogether, maybe they can combine to form one good first baseman, a la Voltron?
Whoo, boy. The one game I made it up to from Austin this year, Davis played third. He for goddamned sure doesn't *look* any good with the glove. His arm isn't very good, either. I grew up watching Steve Buechele and Dean Palmer. I know from, um, "interesting" fielding third basemen. Davis is no 3b.
The problem with Jacobs is that he's bad, not that he's a first baseman.
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