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Saturday, May 24, 2008

Dallas News: Sherrington: Volquez for Hamilton? Texas Rangers got this one right (RR)

Come on now, which would you rather have? A centerfielder who might win the Triple Crown? Or a staff ace with an ERA even Bob Gibson would envy?

Judging the winner in a pitcher-for-position-player trade is a difficult proposition. Skill sets don’t match. One guy plays every day; the other, one in five.

Fortunately for these purposes, anyway, no sport quantifies its values like baseball does. The Hardball Times, an on-line baseball magazine, takes Bill James’ win shares, a complicated formula that judges a player’s contribution to a team’s victories regardless of position, and tweaks it.

The result: Through May 21, Hamilton tied for fifth in both leagues in win shares with 10. Volquez had eight. But in the category of win shares percentage, which measures a player’s contribution in light of his playing time, Volquez ranks far ahead of Hamilton.

Now that we’ve applied the calculus, let’s consider factors that won’t make us both dizzy.

I hear Fritzy Voltho’s new Neuro-Linguistic Programming and Hypnoshocktherapy Anti-Dizziness mega-store in downtown Dallas is working wonders with this problem!

Repoz Posted: May 24, 2008 at 08:57 AM | 17 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsCincinnatiTexas

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   1. Bob Dernier Cri  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 09:39 AM (#2793188)
in the category of win shares percentage, which measures a player's contribution in light of his playing time, Volquez ranks far ahead

Um ... I'm dizzy ... would that be because he's a starting pitcher and only plays every fifth day? I mean, he's not going to get any more "playing time" than he's getting right now, is he? I need to get over to that mega-store ...
   2. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates)  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 10:35 AM (#2793209)
With the obvious proviso that beat writers have to churn out columns, I personally think this Volquez for Hamilton trade was great for both sides, and I love when that happens.
   3. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 11:19 AM (#2793222)
Does win shares adjust for replacement level or otherwise reflect the relative scarcity of positions?
Wouldn't you have to know that to fully judge the trade?
   4. frannyzoo  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 11:43 AM (#2793231)
Well it's hard to argue with success. The Rangers prove that hitting is more important than pitching, and have been proving it for years now.
   5. ghost of perros  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 11:48 AM (#2793233)
Good not so much that both teams apparently came out ahead on the trade, but that both players have overcome adversity and are fulfilling their talents.

Happy to have both on my fantasy roster.
   6. scareduck  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 02:22 PM (#2793346)
People keep saying this as though it meant something. The Rangers needed starting pitching much more than they needed an outfield bat. I just don't get it.
   7. Templeusox has reached his genetic threshold  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 02:31 PM (#2793355)
It's pretty fun going into circa-05/06 Josh Hamilton threads and reading the comments. Not that I could blame anyone for thinking he was out of the game for good, I certainly did too, but it's still fun nonetheless.
   8. JJ1986  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 03:09 PM (#2793380)
How is win shares percentage even calculated? Volquez has faced 250 batters this year. Hamilton has 228 PA. That's not much of a difference.
   9. the Tuque of Flatbush  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 03:34 PM (#2793400)
I'm just waiting for Dusty Baker to gnaw off Volquez's arm with his file-sharpened teeth.
   10. Voros  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 03:35 PM (#2793402)
Danny Herrera has also had a decent start to 2008 and got be LOOGY help for the Reds should they need some.

My problem with the "trade helps both teams argument" is that those trades tend to happen when both teams trade from surplus in one area to make up scarcity in another. The Reds did that in this trade, but the Rangers really didn't. The Rangers needed pitching as much or more than the Reds did.

Now granted the Reds turned their surplus of capable outfielders into Corey Patterson somehow, so I suppose both teams wound up dealing from scarcity for something they had a surplus of (the Reds lead the National League in strikeouts right now) but it didn't seem that way at the time.
   11. Darren  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 04:35 PM (#2793420)
Who would be playing the OF if Hamilton wasn't? He's probably a similarly big upgrade over his replacement to Volquez.
   12. Voros  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 05:13 PM (#2793438)
Well there's Jason Botts for starters (since Murphy can play center).
   13. Excel Hearts Choi  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 05:36 PM (#2793471)
Botts is a butcher with the glove. Putting him in the OF would be a defensive mistake.

If fielding is a big part of pitching, then Rangers did a good job in upgrading their OF defense in a very spacious park that has wind problems. Boggs (and then Bradley when healthy), Murphy, and Hamilton could all play CF, yet they play all three OF positions. Having them all in the OF on a regular basis means that a lot more balls will be outs. I don't have any numbers to back up my claim, but I think the difference between the Rangers with Hamilton and the Rangers with Volquez is closer than many think. The "Rangers need pitching" line is getting old. People have been saying it for several years, but that does not make it true. The Rangers need to improve their defense. Having good pitchers is but one piece to this puzzle; talented fielders are another. It is entirely possible that the Rangers can trade a pitcher without damaging their commitment to improving defense.
   14. Darren  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 05:41 PM (#2793479)
Murphy's defense in CF, IIRC, was passable, but not by any means good. Is Botts a good player?
   15. Excel Hearts Choi  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 05:45 PM (#2793482)
Is Botts a good player?


He needs to be given a long,hard look. He is best suited for DH, and I can't think of any teams that are willing to deal with a struggling DH for the remainder of the season to see if he can prove himself.
   16. Pat Rapper's Delight  Posted: May 24, 2008 at 06:10 PM (#2793496)
I think I'd wait until seeing if Hamilton could remain both drug and injury free for a full season before declaring the Rangers the "winner" of this exchange.
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