As a White Sox fan, I hope (a) there's someone more involved AND (b) all of this cost saving isn't just going into Reinsdorf's pocket.

The Reds aren't that close to the WC. And even if Bailey's star as faded a bit, I'd still rather have the years. Was the relationship that badly poisoned?

How is Dye's defense? UZR on fangraphs has him as -15, -17, and -17 the last three years. In the limited time I've seen him out there he certainly didn't look that bad, but if he is I would think Bailey is probably too much to give up.

Good trade by the White Sox. Decent trade for the Reds, although its a shame that the Reds had to sell low on Bailey. But it was pretty certain that it wasn't going to happen for him in Cincinnati under Baker.

Dye for one-year at $12M is a good stopgap. The Reds could also look to trade him at the deadline, if/when they're out of contention.

Bailey's stock has been falling for a couple straight years, but he's still just 22. I don't know if US Cellular is an ideal ballpark (particularly for a flyball pitcher with the first name "Homer"), but it's not like Great American is that forgiving either.

My immediate reaction to this deal is that it's a steal for the White Sox. Dye isn't getting any younger, and despite his early struggles, Homer Bailey remains a premium power pitching prospect. Bailey is just the sort of arm who Don Cooper has shown a terrific ability to get the most out of, and this deal also clears plenty of cash out for the White Sox. The Reds add a big bat without taking away from the big league club, so I suppose they're happy. My takeaway is that prospects like Bailey don't come around every day, and I'm sure Kenny Williams is giddy to add a big time young arm like Bailey.

Does this classify as a WTF trade? I'm not real sure what Jocketty is trying to do, unless he's getting rid of players from the old regime. If this is true, then I'm more and more impressed with Kenny Williams as time goes on.

Could be that the Reds keeping Dye until he can be traded for prospects later in the year to a contending team. Also, Dye might be a type-A free agent after 2009. Either way, the Reds are looking at good prospects at the end of their relationship with Dye.

Probably not as good as Homer Bailey, though. But if Homer's conflicts with the club are too great, they might have felt it necessary to dump him, improve the team short term, and then hope they can get a worthwhile prospect at the trading deadline or with the draft picks.

I believe that Bailey also only has one option year left:
- his contract was purchased in June 2007;
- optioned in July 2007; and
- optioned again coming out of spring training in 2008).

So he'll have to be up for good in 2010 or will have to pass through waivers. Given how he fared last year in both the majors and AAA, it's possible that his team in 2010 will face a difficult choice and risk losing him with no compensation. At the same time, he'd have minimal trade value with no options left in 2010, so it seems to me that the Reds are just trying to minimize their losses.

How is Dye's defense? UZR on fangraphs has him as -15, -17, and -17 the last three years. In the limited time I've seen him out there he certainly didn't look that bad, but if he is I would think Bailey is probably too much to give up.

My opinion: He was absolutely terrible in 2007, when he was playing with a bad quad. He was only bad last year. Evidently UZR doesn't agree with me, but plus-minus does (-41 in '07, -17 in '08). OK reads, bad acceleration, good arm, makes good throws.

This is probably his last year as a right fielder a team can live with, I'm thinking. But if he's not 100 percent at any time during the season, he's a triple waiting to happen.

Bailey is just the sort of arm who Don Cooper has shown a terrific ability to get the most out of

Just looking at their BB-Ref pages, he really looks a lot like Gavin Floyd - top 10 pick in the draft out of high school, terrible major-league pitcher at age 22. I suppose it still remains to be seen what the rest of Floyd's career is going to look like, but if Don Cooper can get Bailey and Floyd to regularly put up seasons that look like Floyd's 2008 season, he's the best pitching coach this side of Leo Mazzone (and maybe the other side of Mazzone too).

what

I'm liking the Royals chances of avoiding the cellar for a second straight year.

I'm liking the Royals chances of avoiding the cellar for a second straight year.

Just wait until the Royals trade away Thrill Meche.

Coming to the NL and that ballpark Dye could hit 40 odd homers if he stays in the lineup for 150 games.

But that gains the Reds exactly what?

I guess I struggle to understand what end goal is being served.

And as for prospects for when Dye leaves, well, Bailey IS a prospect. Even after a pretty forettable 2008 the talent is still there.

Source vs. Source!

LAS VEGAS - While the White Sox awaited word on whether free-agent Orlando Cabrera would decline their salary arbitration offer, two trade scenarios were shot down Sunday night on the eve of the winter meetings.

A source familiar with the talks rejected a report in the Dayton Daily News quoting a "major-league source close to the situation" that a deal to send Sox right fielder Jermaine Dye to Cincinnati for pitcher Homer Bailey "was done and would be announced this week."

I'm liking the Royals chances of avoiding the cellar for a second straight year.


Fear Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp!

Source vs. Source!
LAS VEGAS - While the White Sox awaited word on whether free-agent Orlando Cabrera would decline their salary arbitration offer, two trade scenarios were shot down Sunday night on the eve of the winter meetings.

A source familiar with the talks rejected a report in the Dayton Daily News quoting a "major-league source close to the situation" that a deal to send Sox right fielder Jermaine Dye to Cincinnati for pitcher Homer Bailey "was done and would be announced this week."

The Sun-Times Sox writer just Twittered that the deal was off, that Kenny wanted to take another look at it...

"With baseball’s annual winter meetings unfurling this week at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, rumors run rampant."

I love the winter meetings. I love the rumors, love the trades, love any chance to talk about baseball during the off-season.

As for the actual trade, I don't like it for the Reds. I'd rather give Bailey another year to prove himself than have one year of Dye trying to help the team compete for 80 wins.

Can somebody explain how UZR and plus/minus are calculated?

But it was pretty certain that it wasn't going to happen for him in Cincinnati under Baker.

If that's true, then this is just throwing good money after bad.

The one advantage that a non-contending team has is the ability to take on risk. Bailey has a huge level of variability, and is thus a good risk for the Reds to take. The Reds have realized this in the past (giving Josh Hamilton a chance), so I don't know why they would punt on Bailey for one year of Dye.

I don't know why they would punt on Bailey for one year of Dye.

Unless It's Red Dye!

If this trade happens, I can understand why the Reds would do it. They wouldnt be trying for 80 wins, they would be trying for the postseason. With a pitching staff based on Harang/Volquez/Arroyo/Cueto/Cordero and a core of talented position players who are in their 20's, they have a shot at it. Maybe theyre not one jermaine dye away from 100 wins, but they arent some barren sinkhole like Washington and SF. Given that they havent been to the playoffs in eons, and this particular core of players' window of opportunity is the next few years, I can understand going for it. You can't catch lightning in a bottle without holding your arms out in a storm.

Bailey's stock has been falling for a couple straight years, but he's still just 22.

What aging corner OF will Hughes be dealt for next year?

Manny

Everybody involved is denying that this trade is close to happening.

Aforementioned Twitter from "Not That" Joe Cowley:

Maybe when KW said he needed to address the outfield next he meant make it worse. Homer Bailey? Danny Wright thinks Bailey is a "neck."

I might agree, if I knew who Danny Wright was or what a "neck" means in this context.

I'd imagine "neck" is shorthand for "redneck." At least that's how it's often used down here (Georgia).

I think it's an OK deal for the Reds, in part because I'm not all that sanguaine about Bailey's chances. He's got a good FB, but has trouble throwing the curve for strikes, and the change is pretty marginal. That sounds like a reliever to me, and possibly a Professor Farnsworth-type reliever at that.

According to mlb.com, Jocketty told the Dayton Daily News it's "not even close" to being done.

Danny Wright is a former Sox pitching prospect, though he was never the caliber of Bailey. And I don't recall Wright having much of a redneck persona.

The Sun-Times Sox writer just Twittered that the deal was off, that Kenny wanted to take another look at it...

If it's really Williams that's backing out of this deal (and Joe Cowley is hardly the best source for this sort of thing), then he's nuts. Right now, it's a total buyer's market for 30-something slugging corner outfielders with defensive problems. If Williams had the opportunity to get someone of Bailey's caliber for Dye, he needed to jump on that.

Sounds like it's moot, but considering the way Gavin Floyd got turned around by the Sox and the way Jon Danks development seemingly accelerated -- I don't know that, were I another AL Central team, I'd particularly care to see Bailey heading to the south side.

Danks + Floyd doesn't mean that they can fix Bailey, but if the Sox were to have anywhere near the same success with him, that would be a scary good top 3, all of whom would be under 25.

Danks + Floyd doesn't mean that they can fix Bailey, but if the Sox were to have anywhere near the same success with him, that would be a scary good top 3, all of whom would be under 25.

Plus Poreda hopefully coming soon.

I honestly don't know how to evaluate Don Cooper. I mean, I know that a number of guys have found success in Chicago when they didn't find it elsewhere, but I also get concerned about what happened after the '06 season. If you'll recall, Kenny went out and got a bunch of guys that Coop was supposed to fix, and pretty much ALL of them sucked in '07.

Danks + Floyd doesn't mean that they can fix Bailey, but if the Sox were to have anywhere near the same success with him, that would be a scary good top 3, all of whom would be under 25.

Top 3? Does Buehrle have to knife somebody to get any notice?

I assume that Buehrle will be traded.

OK, I'm only kidding, but I wonder what he'd bring in trade. Cot's says that he has a limited NTC through July of 2010, and that his salary goes up to $15M per year if he's traded. But Cot's also says that another year gets added to his deal (at $15M per), so he'd be signed for 4 years, $60M. Buehrle's got a 122 career ERA+ (better than Peavy!), he's entering his age 30 year, and he has AVERAGED 33 starts and 225 IP the past 8 years.

No offense intended towards Buehrle - I thought it was customary to ignore him in such discussions.

Danks + Floyd doesn't mean that they can fix Bailey, but if the Sox were to have anywhere near the same success with him, that would be a scary good top 3, all of whom would be under 25.

And I think that Clayton Richard can be a decent starter as well. That's a good, cheap rotation right there, and if the Sox sign someone like Garland or Sheets and move Richard to the bullpen, that's even better.

Right field becomes a hole offensively, but that's not too hard to solve.

Harang/Volquez/Arroyo/Cueto/Cordero

Nate:

That's putting a lot of faith in Cueto, Volquez and Harang all coming back strong. Cueto was running on fumes at the end. Volquez rebounded from a poor mid-Summer to finish solid but was clearly pushed. Harang to me is the question mark in that while he did SEEM to finish fairly well his strikout rate was down. He wasn't walking anyone but he wasn't finishing either.

And who plays a legit shortstop and who catches? Is the presumption that Gonzalez comes back ok? And Hanigan behind the plate?

I have been out of the loop so somebody fill me in on the perceived plan here.....

Plus Poreda hopefully coming soon.

Poreda's a reliever. He's a two pitch pitcher.

If Williams had the opportunity to get someone of Bailey's caliber for Dye, he needed to jump on that.

Um, no. The Reds would easily win this deal. Not only did Bailey just fall flat on his face, but there have always been serious questions about his work ethic going all the way back to when he was drafted. Plus, this is a guy who wanted to go back to AAA last year because he didn't like the atmosphere of the majors. Yes, the guy's got a ton of natural talent. But, he also sounds like an A-1 ####### and he's lazy. Those type of guys don't last with the White Sox and Ozzie.

The Reds would easily win this deal.

How so? If you haven't noticed, old, slow sluggers who can't play defense are a dime a dozen this winter. Getting anything at all of value for Dye is a White Sox win.

How so? If you haven't noticed, old, slow sluggers who can't play defense are a dime a dozen this winter. Getting anything at all of value for Dye is a White Sox win.

Anything at all of value. Homer Bailey, to me, doesn't fit that.

Is Jimmy P the White Sox version of Vaux or something?

Is Jimmy P the White Sox version of Vaux or something?

1. I don't know enough about Vaux to judge this statement, but somehow, I bet it's not flattering to me.
2. I guess I'm supposed to jump up and down about trading away a proven player (who actually is good and isn't just a "Proven Veteran") for a former top prospect who has some major faults?
3. I'm not against trading away good players for prospects (I liked the Big Game Javy trade), but get something good to great for your best players. This is a team that won the division and will compete for the division again next year. The object is still to win.

I don't know enough about Vaux to judge this statement, but somehow, I bet it's not flattering to me.

Vaux has a reputation for negativity and pessimism regarding the Tigers.

Jermaine Dye is a solid player and all but he's getting a bit old and Homer Bailey is nothing to sneeze at. The White Sox did just fine with another million-dollar-arm-ten-cent-head guy they picked up from Anaheim.

If this deal actually did go through, what would Chicago's outfield look like?

If this deal actually did go through, what would Chicago's outfield look like?

Wouldn't that have to wait until after the free agent corner outfield picture gets sorted out. With the glut of them out there, surely some guy is going to be able to be had for, perhaps not a Lohseian figure, but a pretty attractive price.

Wouldn't that have to wait until after the free agent corner outfield picture gets sorted out. With the glut of them out there, surely some guy is going to be able to be had for, perhaps not a Lohseian figure, but a pretty attractive price.

I was wondering if they had made any decisions about CF yet. Does Chicago have in-house options aside from Jerry Owens?

Vaux has a reputation for negativity and pessimism regarding the Tigers.

Actually, I'm quite positive about the Sox. All last offseason, I was one of the only people saying the team could compete and to not tear it apart. I didn't flat out say they'd win, but I did say with a few dominoes falling they could. I say the same for next season, too.

Jermaine Dye is a solid player and all but he's getting a bit old and Homer Bailey is nothing to sneeze at. The White Sox did just fine with another million-dollar-arm-ten-cent-head guy they picked up from Anaheim.

True. But, I'm also looking at Bailey's minor league numbers, and while they're good, they aren't great to me. His strikeout rate has been falling, and he gave up a ton of hits last year. He's a high-walk pitcher. You're right, they did have success with Jenks. Of course, they got him for nothing. Dye's their starting RF who puts up 30 HR a year. That's not nothing.

If this deal actually did go through, what would Chicago's outfield look like?

####.
Quentin - Anderson/Owens - Fields/Wise/Lillibridge/FA

Jimmy P, I don't think that you are Vaux-like, but I do think that you need to consider the big picture. Dye for Bailey is really one year of Dye for six years of Bailey + $11.5M in cost savings in '09. So obviously it depends on whether Bailey turns into a productive major league pitcher, and on whether the White Sox could get something more attractive for Dye (my understanding is that there are a few different teams interested -- Stark says the Braves, Royals, Reds, Rays and Mets all have some interest). But for me, a lot depends on how (or perhaps whether) the $11.5M is used. If the White Sox use the $11.5M to sign Furcal, or Dunn, or Sheets, then I'm more than cool with a Dye for Bailey deal. If the $11.5M is just going in to Reinsdorf's "pay off Judith" fund, not so much.

Dye for Bailey is really one year of Dye for six years of Bailey + $11.5M in cost savings in '09. So obviously it depends on whether Bailey turns into a productive major league pitcher, and on whether the White Sox could get something more attractive for Dye (my understanding is that there are a few different teams interested -- Stark says the Braves, Royals, Reds, Rays and Mets all have some interest). But for me, a lot depends on how (or perhaps whether) the $11.5M is used. If the White Sox use the $11.5M to sign Furcal, or Dunn, or Sheets, then I'm more than cool with a Dye for Bailey deal. If the $11.5M is just going in to Reinsdorf's "pay off Judith" fund, not so much.

I don't see the Sox being big players in the free agent market. Reinsdorf has a policy of no pitching contracts for more than 3 years, so I can't see them picking up Sheets. They seem dead set on Alexei at SS, and I can't see them picking up Dunn because he's a station to station guy, and they don't want more of them. So, the $11.5 million would have to be used in a trade or just banked. I think keeping him for a better deal, or just keeping him to play, is much better than taking a former top prospect who has issues with his head and his numbers just to get "something". This isn't a last place team.

Maybe the Sox are clearing money to sign Sabathia. Stranger things have happened.

Actually, I'm quite positive about the Sox.

Sorry, I wasn't trying to use the Vaux line as an insult. I was just puzzled by your approach.

The absoluteness of what you said that lead me to think that you were going out of your way to bemoan your team. You didn't say: "Bailey is a questionable bet to be a good MLB pitcher". Instead it was "Bailey is nothing of value," a statement as extreme as it is blatantly wrong. He may or may not pan out but a 22-yo with plus stuff on the cusp of the majors (and just 4 years away from being a top ten pick and a year or two away from being one of the best pitching prospects in the minors) undoubtedly has value.

The Poreda comment, I thought, kind of came from the same place. You seemed to be oddly certain of the outcome there, and not for any reason I could readily think of. A lack of a 3rd pitch in a prospect is definitely a concern, but it to be so sure, right now, that he WILL NOT be a starter seems to be jumping the gun a little bit, especially if you have not even seen the guy pitch. He very well may be a long-term relief pitcher but it is silly to act as if that is a definite scenario right now, especially if all there is to base that off is what you have heard.

I was wondering if they had made any decisions about CF yet. Does Chicago have in-house options aside from Jerry Owens?

Dewayne Wise! Brian N. Anderson!

"He may or may not pan out but a 22-yo with plus stuff on the cusp of the majors (and just 4 years away from being a top ten pick and a year or two away from being one of the best pitching prospects in the minors) undoubtedly has value."

Technically, yes, in that he can apparently be traded for Jermaine Dye, who has value. The problem in my mind, and perhaps in Jimmy's as well, is that Bailey seems like a depreciating asset. If he can't back up that prospect ranking (and I don't think that he will), then his perceived value as a commodity is gone. We aren't speaking about an arbitrary construct - we're speaking about an actual individual, who is either going to succeed or fail. And if I think that this specific individual is going to fail (and I do), then I'm going to think that any trade to acquire him is a bad one.

We aren't speaking about an arbitrary construct - we're speaking about an actual individual, who is either going to succeed or fail. And if I think that this specific individual is going to fail (and I do), then I'm going to think that any trade to acquire him is a bad one.

This is how I feel. I don't think he's going to succeed. So, if the idea of trading Dye is to get better, or move a valuable piece at his peak value (it truly won't ever be higher), then I think they can do a lot better than Homer Bailey. If the idea is to just pick up $11.5 million for Reinsdorf's coffers, then it's probably a pretty fair trade.

He very well may be a long-term relief pitcher but it is silly to act as if that is a definite scenario right now, especially if all there is to base that off is what you have heard.

Every summary of Poreda I've read is that he's a two pitch pitcher. They've all said his two pitches are really really good, but at the end of the day, he's a two pitch pitcher. I wouldn't count on him as a starter, and I honestly don't think the White Sox are either.

if the idea of trading Dye is to get better, or move a valuable piece at his peak value (it truly won't ever be higher), then I think they can do a lot better than Homer Bailey.

I think you overestimate how much Jermaine Dye is worth in trade right now. He's a good hitter and by all accounts a really good human being, but there are a lot of guys with his skill set floating around right now looking for jobs. Dye's not worth zero in trade, but the Sox can't expect to get a whole lot. I'd say he's certainly less valuable than Nick Swisher, and the Sox got bubkus for Swisher.

Now, if the White Sox had to pick up a chunk of Dye's salary to get Bailey, then I'd agree that it would be a bad trade for them. But one-for-one, with the Reds picking up Dye's salary? In that case, even if Bailey was a bust, it wouldn't be a terrible trade for the Sox.

I'd say he's certainly less valuable than Nick Swisher, and the Sox got bubkus for Swisher.

Wow. I can't even believe this.

I don't know what's controversial about that. Dye is several years older, he's a year or two away from being a full-time DH, and is only signed for one year at what is likely to be an above-market contract. Unless you think that Swisher's 2008 represents his true talent level going forward (and I don't), I think Swisher clearly has more trade value at this moment in time.

Well, he's probably more valuable in the abstract, but I'm not sure that around baseball he is perceived that way, which means he might actually have less actual trade value.

Put it this way - if you have Swisher, right now, and someone offers you Jermaine Dye for him, do you take it? I sure don't.

Put it this way - if you have Swisher, right now, and someone offers you Jermaine Dye for him, do you take it? I sure don't.

If I have any plans of going to the playoffs next year, of course I take it.

If I think Nick Swisher sucks and will be a negative asset on his contract going forward, I take it.

I think there's a very good chance that Swisher will be just as productive as Jermaine Dye in 2009, to say nothing of 2010 and beyond.

Why wouldn't you like this trade for Chi (assuming they're not sending money)?

You could just turn around and sign one of the other good bat/no glove options, Abreu/Burrell/Dunn for like 3/35.
Thome will be done soon, so the ChiSox will have room at DH.

Basically, you don't hurt the team, you don't increase the budget this year, and you get Bailey for free.

Dye was a nice acquisition on Kenny Williams' part, World Series MVP, one MVP-calibre regular season, and two other nice years. Nevertheless, parting with the 35 year-old is probably a good call at this point. I think it has become painfully obvious the man is a liability in RF, and who knows how the inevitable move to DH affects his psyche/numbers/etc. He may have a few good seasons left in the tank, but I don't think he is a fit in the NL, and if Kenny Williams can find a GM who is willing to part with a decent prospect, I'm not opposed to him pulling the trigger.

Regarding Bailey, wtf happened last season? I know he was once considered an uber-prospect, and I like Don Cooper's track record with these types, but the numbers don't look pretty. Was he learning a new pitch?

"Put it this way - if you have Swisher, right now, and someone offers you Jermaine Dye for him, do you take it? I sure don't."

Is Swish back on the vitamins or not? Swish's loss of bat-speed over the past two seasons boggles the mind, but the explanation for the loss probably doesn't. I'd take Dye and feel fairly confident that I made the right call.

I am very ambivcalent about this, but not surprised. It fits in well with what I see as the Jocketty/Baker M.O: Get rid of attitude problems and add reliable vets. I thought, going into the off-season, that the Reds should try to get Juan Rivera t cover a corner and Cesar Izturis to give them a good glove at SS to help move the pitching forward.

Having traded Bailey for Dye, I still think they should try to get Izturis, and now they should try to get another veteran OF as well.

As to Bailey, I would have tried him in the pen. Given Don Cooper's record as noted, Bailey may make it in Chicago.

Having traded Bailey for Dye, I still think they should try to get Izturis, and now they should try to get another veteran OF as well.

As to Bailey, I would have tried him in the pen. Given Don Cooper's record as noted, Bailey may make it in Chicago.

Just FWIW, RR, no deal has been made. That's not to say the deal won't happen, but as of now Dye is a Sock and Bailey is a Red.

Just FWIW, RR, no deal has been made.

Thanks. I just got off work and was going on the headline above.

I would only be okay with this deal if the savings from being rid of Dye's contract are spent on a CF/RF/3B/2B/P. I do not have any confidence that Bailey is going to amount to anything.