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Saturday, November 28, 2009

Dobrow: Save this Franchise: Brewers will require a little magic to repair

Money-Coutts and BS Walks...or something like that.

3. Make a plan for Prince. The Brewers can forestall the inevitable if they want, but the bottom line is this: They won’t be able to afford the guy once he’s up for a new contract. By the time Scott Boras has finished inserting double-reverse out clauses and NLDS MVP bonuses into Fielder’s next deal, it’ll amount to at least 20 percent of the Brewers’ payroll. You can’t tie up that much cash in a corner man.

Hence it’s time to start laying the groundwork for a Fielder deal, whether you plan to complete it tomorrow or on July 31. There was chatter last offseason that the Giants were willing to deal Matt Cain straight up for him, which may have changed (if the Giants see Pablo Sandoval as their first baseman of the future) or may not (if the Giants decide they can’t bear the eventual price of keeping the Lincecum/Cain duo intact). Either way, it doesn’t hurt to ask.

The Brewers also oughta put in a call to Boston, which has the young, cheap arms (Clay Buchholz et al) that the Brewers would need to make a Fielder deal feasible. If they can make a trade along those lines, they can take the current-year savings and get in on the John Lackey bidding. Filling first base won’t be tough in this saturated market, either. Carlos Delgado, Adam LaRoche, etc.

Unrelated to the to-deal-or-not-to-deal discussion: Raise your hand if you think Prince Fielder will age well. Yeah. Me neither.

Repoz Posted: November 28, 2009 at 04:56 AM | 13 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralBusinessMilwaukee

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   1. Evil Twin  Posted: November 28, 2009 at 09:56 AM (#3398008)
I'd say the trade for Gomez pretty much says that the Brewers are going to keep Fielder as long as possible. The offense is built around Fielder and Braun.

There's no big secret for what the Brewers are doing this year. See if they can get some regression towards average from Parra and Bush, another fine season from Gallardo, and try to find some upgrades for the rest of the rotation. The starting pitching was so awful that even something vaguely in the range of average will be a significant improvement and could vault them into 85+ win territory.

And if they don't make those improvements, maybe they'll do something at the deadline. Then again, they didn't do anything last year when they could have sold off Cameron, Counsell, Hoffman, and possibly Kendall.
   2. ugen64  Posted: November 28, 2009 at 09:05 PM (#3398348)
Giants send random prospect to Red Sox for Mike Lowell + half his salary
Sign Johnny Damon for 1 year / $10 million

C - Posey
1B - Sandoval
2B - Sanchez
SS - Renteria
3B - Lowell
RF - Fred Lewis?
CF - Rowand
LF - Damon

SP - Lincecum
SP - Cain
SP - Sanchez
SP - Zito
SP - Bumgarner/whatever

IANA Giants fan.

The Giants were 7 games back. If Jonathan Sanchez improves (i.e. his ERA goes down to his FIP), the 5th starter throws 160 innings of 4.50 ERA ball, Posey plays well, either Freddy Sanchez or Renteria bounces back, and Lewis plays like he did in 2007-08 given playing time (all of which are plausible - even probable), that's easily a 3-4 win improvement right there. In addition to that, if you trade Cain for Fielder, realistically you're only going to gain around 4 wins (Fielder's 5 wins + Cain's replacement being about 1 win worse than him - that's optimistic if anything), while using up all of your payroll room. I think Lowell + Damon are worth 4 wins, more if Lowell's range returns. They're a bit cheaper, and you keep Cain, who is one of the faces of the franchise.
   3. Barnaby Jones  Posted: November 28, 2009 at 10:00 PM (#3398378)
By the time Scott Boras has finished inserting double-reverse out clauses and NLDS MVP bonuses into Fielder’s next deal, it’ll amount to at least 20 percent of the Brewers’ payroll.


This whole sentence is super dumb.

a) Playoff MVP bonuses are hardly confined to Borasian contracts. They are fairly standard at this point.
b) If Fielder is willing to sign for 20 percent of their 80 million dollar payroll ($16 million), they should jump on that opportunity and thank their lucky stars.
   4. Tripon  Posted: November 28, 2009 at 10:02 PM (#3398381)
There is no NLDS MVP.
   5. snapper  Posted: November 28, 2009 at 10:06 PM (#3398385)
There is no NLDS MVP.

So, NLDS MVP bonuses are the new market inefficiency?
   6. Frank Rook  Posted: November 28, 2009 at 10:07 PM (#3398386)
There is no NLDS MVP.


No reason for that to stop an agent. If it gets added later on, the player is set. Forward thinking, and all.
   7. JoeHova  Posted: November 28, 2009 at 10:56 PM (#3398407)
This guy appears to be a total moron. It's not really worth saying more than that.
   8. RollingRicky  Posted: November 29, 2009 at 02:45 AM (#3398463)
This guy appears to be a total moron. It's not really worth saying more than that.


I don't think he said anything dumb in actual substance - the NLDS MVP quip was just a throwaway line. It is certainly true that Prince will command mega-millions on the open market.
   9. RMc is the Commissioner of Baseball  Posted: November 29, 2009 at 08:05 AM (#3398493)
Make a plan for Prince.

Have him put out an album a year again, like in the old days. And make a proper sequel to Purple Rain (we're pretending Graffiti Bridge didn't happen, thank you very much).
   10. TVerik and his cavalcade of whimsy  Posted: November 29, 2009 at 08:08 AM (#3398494)
Is the NLDS line snark? Does this guy know that there's no NLDS MVP? It stuck out at me.
   11. Sweatpants  Posted: November 29, 2009 at 08:14 AM (#3398498)
I remember reading somewhere that someone once had an NLDS MVP clause negotiated into his contract - he got a bonus if he won the award (which, as many have pointed out, doesn't exist). I took the line to be a joking reference to that incident.
   12. McGwire's Silence (Sowers the Seed of Love)  Posted: November 29, 2009 at 02:37 PM (#3398701)
Wait, what about his trade proposals for Gamel?
Gamel, whose calamitous throws from third to first make me wonder if he has webbed fingers, could stick as a DH in Oakland (with a B-grade reliever coming back to Milwaukee) or Baltimore (for a prospect like Jake Arrieta?).


Arrieta = 'B-Reliever', right?
   13. whoisalhedges  Posted: November 30, 2009 at 10:56 AM (#3399095)
You know, I don't think Prince will age well, but he really could surprise us.

Although he looks slow due to his being short and round (and he's not exactly a burner, anyway), he's not as slow as a lot of power-hitting, weak-glove 1Bs. He does have a couple of inside-the-park HRs in his career, one of which was legit (and the other was when the RF couldn't get the ball out from under the padding of the wall). He also hits more doubles than one would expect from the truly slow power hitter. Additionally, his career high in GIDP was 18 in his first full season -- yes, he hits the ball in the air more than on the ground, but he can beat one out on occasion.

He has James' famous "old-player skills" (walks, power, not much in the way of speed or defense), but again, this comparison is imperfect. Bill's prototypical "old-player" in the '80s was Tom Brunansky. Prince hit .299 last year, .284 so far for his career. Not exactly Brunanskyan territory. His glove was a bit better last year (owing possibly to his trimmed-down physique), he played in all 162 games (157, 158, 159, 162 in his four full years in the majors).

So we have an iron man (so far), who isn't fast but isn't super slow either, who hits for a good average, who isn't good with the glove but not owing to a lack of athleticism... I'm not so sure he's finished by 32.

Of course, not being sure isn't the same as thinking the Brewers can or should sign him long-term. The odds are against Prince Fielder being a valuable major leaguer at 35; but he's got a better shot at it than some of his comps.
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