Well, I'm sure that Ned can trade Billingsley, Loney, and Kemp for a proven Vet - maybe two, if one of them has a rotator cuff injury.

It's been a long while since I entered an offseason with such concern.
Ned has a lot of talent at his disposal, and I haven't been much impressed with his work thus far.

good thing the dodgers have all those Proven Veterans who all Know How To Win at the end of the year

Kent's enjoyed a year far beyond what I was expecting. A .500-plus SLG at age 39 is outstanding.
Gonzo, to my surprise, had something in the tank although he ran too hot and cold for my taste.
But Nomar is burnt toast. And Pierre's season was exactly as disappointing as what we predicted last winter.

so how awesome can loney be?

in 2006 age 22 season

102ABS 284/342/559 8bb 10k 15 XBH


in 2007 age 23 season

298AB 326/377/527 25bb 43k 33 XBH



He is pretty awesome now but, how much more awesome can he get?

Loney just reminds me of a lefthanded Derrek Lee in the very limited time I've seen him play.

so how awesome can loney be?

Good question:

2007 AAA: 279/345/382
2006 AAA: 380/426/546 (great BA, not great anything else)
2005 AA: 284/357/419

other than 170 AB in rookie ball in 2002, Loney has never had a good ISO. He has also generally struck out much less in the majors than in the minors, which is odd. Of course he's still quite young.

Derrek Lee with fewer walks but maybe a bit more BA would seem a pretty good comp. Unfortunately so would the bipolar Sean Casey. With a little more power, he's Justin Morneau.

If Loney adds a big chunk of consistent power, then he'll be awesome -- and of course that's possible given his age. If he starts to K back at his minor-league rates (2006 AAA notwithstanding) and this power "spike" is a fluke, he'll be average-ish for a 1B. If he stays where he is, he's a very solid, valuable player.

But I just don't think he's going to take that step to become a superstar, his track record's too inconsistent.

Walt --

other than 170 AB in rookie ball in 2002, Loney has never had a good ISO. He has also generally struck out much less in the majors than in the minors, which is odd. Of course he's still quite young.

Loney was Mr. Pouty when he had a terrific spring and got demoted to AAA anyway. I think you're right about the ISO being a problem, especially at first. On the other hand, he's doing about as well this season in that regard (~.200-ish ISO, typical of his minor league career save for his 2007 at Las Vegas) as he has at other times.

But I just don't think he's going to take that step to become a superstar, his track record's too inconsistent.

Hard to say. Let's see him get a couple of years under his belt.

other than 170 AB in rookie ball in 2002, Loney has never had a good ISO.
Isn't an injured wrist partly to blame for that?
(Checks Google)
Here's THT's look at Loney, as of last winter.
Sure, enough there was a wrist injury, from a HBP. Also, he had an infected finger that cost him nearly two months of the '04 season.
Constancio's take was that Loney's upside was Shawn Green. That's pretty good.

Part of the news last night was that Saito got beaten. (I was watching it live - Vin Scully's call on local TV.) Even with that failure, Saito has been marvelous this year. (Just before it went bad, Vin was pushing the notion of Saito for Cy Young - it may be a stretch, but Vin wasn't embarassed to say it.) But he's also 37 years old. And one of the two best everyday players for the Dodgers this year has been Jeff Kent, who is 39. At the same time that they're looking forward to the Martin/Loney/Kemp/LaRoche/Billingsley years, they also have to worry about replacing Saito and Kent. (OK, maybe Broxton is the closer-in-waiting. But he hasn't been Saito-good this year.)

And yes, Kent and Penny (ERA+ 157) originally came to Dodgers as DePo acquisitions.

Part of the news last night was that Saito got beaten. (I was watching it live - Vin Scully's call on local TV.)

The Rockies announcers noted that until Holliday singled with two outs in the ninth, the Rox hadn't gotten a hit off Saito all year. I think they were 0-for-16 at that point.

I think Ned has performed poorly so far, but he hasn't done anything catastrophically boneheaded either- players like Loney and Kemp are still with the organization despite predictions they'd be dealt for pocket lint after Ned's moves "blocked" them.

The Dodgers have a ton of revenue even if McCourt's pockets are otherwise not too deep. Baseball owner's tend to spend based upon team revenues not owner's pockets, otherwise Minnesota would have one of the highest payroll's in baseball.

The most unproductive players on the team have been Nomah, Furcal and Pierre
Furcal likely is still a better player than he's shown this year, Pierre needs to be benched,
Nomar is likely a bettter hitter than he showed this year, but not enough to be a starting 1B

What to do?
Nomar: Play Loney at 1B, Betemit at 3B (oops), play LaRoche at 3b (is he healthy?)
Pierre: recognoze the fact that Pierre is just Endy Chavez with better luck in playing time- play Ethier and Kemp as much as possible- look for a replacement for LGone
Furcal: fix 3b and of first, Furcal issue may resolve on its own.

Then:
Kent- will need to give thought to his replacement
SP= everyone needs help in their rotation- the Dodgers have guys like Billinglsy-

This team could easily contend next year
This team would probably be in first NOW had thwy just given CF to Kemp, 1B to Loney and 3B to Betemit. Would that have been reasonable?

Loney hit .284/.342/.559 in 48 games in 2006, was superlative in AAA, players have been handed starting jobs with less before.
Kemp hit .253/.289/.448 in 54 games as a 21 year old after hitting .329/.374/.540 in AAA.
The major league line wasn't great- but he showed good pop for a 21 year old, his career minor league line was .310/.358/.518 and he was young for his levels- at 22 I think it should have been expected that he'd outplay Pierre.
Betemit was 25 and a career .271/.332/.433 hitter in 669 at bats. who'd hit .263/.326/.469 in 140 games in 2006. Not great but certainly adequate for a 3B.

Making those decisions could also have freed up a lot of $ which could have been used to acquire a REAL impact bat.

This team would probably be in first NOW had thwy just given CF to Kemp, 1B to Loney and 3B to Betemit. Would that have been reasonable?

More so than signing Juan Pierre (aka Slappy McPopup) to a five-year deal.

Nomar shouldn't be on a contending team in any capacity. His bat isn't even worth carrying on the bench anymore, and this was obvious from his second half last year at the time they extended him.

Third base is more of a problem, because it's not clear that any of Wilson Betemit or Andy LaRoche (especially given LaRoche's questionable attitude about conditioning) would have been good all year long. But the Dodgers should have been willing to try. That they have not highlights Colletti's major fault, i.e., preferring veterans too much.

That Betemit trade was a real weird move. They already had a quite good bullpen, plus 30 or 40 starters who weren't very good at starting and could be used in the bullpen. The Proctologist hasn't even been used in any save situations, and he only has 4 "Games Finished".

Yeah, getting Proctor was weird - all the more so since Jonathan Meloan had been dominating (albeit AA) at the time. He probably wasn't quite ready - but since a lot of people suspected that Proctor was showing the effects of being overworked, it was worth a try before trading Betemit.

I'm wondering if the best way to get rid of Pierre is to force another team to take him if they want one of the prospects.
Something like, Meloan and Pierre for a LAIM or LA3B.
Not advocating, but just a thought.