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Friday, August 04, 2006

Don’t Walk:  The oddities of Francoeur

Mac Thomason looks at players that have had similar traits to Jeff Francoeur…

That’s not missing anything. Nobody’s done it. But his homers are off… Maybe he’ll end up with 25 and 15:
ALL LEAGUES & TEAMS
ALL YEARS
ALL POSITIONS
HOMERUNS >= 25
WALKS <= 15
Same deal. How about his current 20 — what if he doesn’t hit another homer and draws five walks?

Maybe not as in-depth as saber kids would like (no era or park adjustment, use of semi-arbitrary cutoffs, ect) but a very interesting casual look at players (like DiMaggio, Pudge, Belle, Sosa....and Daryle Ward and ABNER DALRYMPLE!?) who have shown similar statistical extremeness in homers and walks to Frenchy

MM1f Posted: August 04, 2006 at 03:01 AM | 25 comment(s)
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   1. Elevate Phil Coorey Later Posted: August 04, 2006 at 05:44 AM (#2126649)
J Leeds on his current visit to Australia gave me a Francour jersey. The Braves are now my NL team.

Just had to post that...carry on...
   2. El Hijo del Ron Santo (Alan Keiper) Posted: August 04, 2006 at 07:03 AM (#2126658)
And of course, Abner Dalrymple did that in the year the Cubs counted balls hit past their 250 ft. left field fence as home runs.
   3. El Hijo del Ron Santo (Alan Keiper) Posted: August 04, 2006 at 07:04 AM (#2126659)
And by Cubs, I mean White Stockings.
   4. Toolsy McClutch Posted: August 04, 2006 at 10:03 AM (#2126782)
The whole situation is neat. I was one of the people predicting the complete meltdown (and send down) of JF, but I actually enjoy seeing him make a go of it. The abnormalities are what make life fun.
   5. Mac Thomason Posted: August 04, 2006 at 10:12 AM (#2126790)
What I didn't note and probably should have remembered is that it took six balls for a walk in 1884.
   6. JPWF13 Posted: August 04, 2006 at 10:52 AM (#2126833)
I was watching a game recently, and Frenchy actually took a pitch- it was a ball- a little high, I was suprised because it was possibly teh most hittable pitch he got that at bat- he swung at everything else, including the ball that was low and outside - which he actually pulled for a single-

not a hard hit- more of a location single-
pretty terrible at bat actually- except for the outcome (and he's hitting .257 so it's not like he's hacking his way to a .300 average)
hell even the swing that produced the hit was terrible- he was off balance- couldn't put any force into it- seeing eye hit.

the ANNOUNCERS went on and on for the rest of the inning about how it was a GREAT AT BAT.


All I could think was WTF?????
   7. DosRafaels Posted: August 04, 2006 at 01:56 PM (#2127115)
I was watching a game recently, and Frenchy actually took a pitch- it was a ball- a little high, I was suprised because it was possibly teh most hittable pitch he got that at bat


That's the hilarious thing about Frenchy. I mean the guy will take a pitch right down the middle and swing at something that looks like its about to hit B.Cox on the bench. He just has no mental conception of a strike zone. None. The word abnormal used earlier in the thread is the best thing to describe the guy. I mean as much as we've all been wowed by the ability of Vlad to hit something approaching his head, what Frenchy is doing is unprecedented in the 20 years I've been watching baseball.
   8. Marcus Giles 2 Posted: August 04, 2006 at 02:02 PM (#2127132)
I saw this article early this morning and spent some time taking another look at Francoeur's swing.

Jeff Francoeur Swing Analysis Part 2

apparantly this is what Bobby Cox had to say about Francouer in the AJC:

Asked if he was concerned about Francoeur seeing only five pitches in four at-bats, Braves manager Bobby Cox said an emphatic, “No.’
“It doesn’t bother me one bit,” Cox said. “Not where he is hitting in the lineup. Not a bit. If he isn’t aggressive, it takes away from him a little bit.”



In regard to what Cox said about his approach, it wouldn't bother me either if Francoeur didn't so clearly have an incredible amount of ability. Cox is right though, from the standpoint that Francoeur's swing will not really allow him to be more patient. Why it does bother me is because I don't seem him doing this same thing and really realizing his potential. We'll see though...I wish him the best (I live in a suburb right next to where McCann and Francoeur grew up and the hometown thing is pretty cool)
   9. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: August 04, 2006 at 02:21 PM (#2127164)
I mean as much as we've all been wowed by the ability of Vlad to hit something approaching his head, what Frenchy is doing is unprecedented in the 20 years I've been watching baseball.


but Francouer DOESN'T hit pitches like that--his hits come on "regular" strikes; unlike Vlad & Yogi who could take a "bad ball" (meaning a waste pitch that should be unhittable) and drive it with power. Francouer can't do that.

I think opposing pitchers should be fined every time they throw Frenchy a strike
   10. NJ in DC (Now with Law School!!!) Posted: August 04, 2006 at 02:26 PM (#2127175)
As I said during the Yankees-Braves series, I've never seen a more undisciplined hitter. I mean, there might have ben guys with lower walk totals or whatever, but no one with plate discipline so obviously bad. He has no concept of the strike zone.
   11. Marcus Giles 2 Posted: August 04, 2006 at 03:01 PM (#2127234)
something really amazing was an at-bat he had the other day where he saw about 9 pitches, all strikes. It got to 0-2 and he just kept swinging, strike or not. It was really amazing. I don't remember seeing a 9 pitch AB where each pitch went for a strike
   12. Robert in Redondo Posted: August 04, 2006 at 03:19 PM (#2127261)
I think opposing pitchers should be fined every time they throw Frenchy a strike

Absolutely. I think Francoeur's mind is already 95% of the way made up whether he's going to swing before the pitch is even thrown. Every scouting report on him should lead with "Never throw a strike" in bold.

For a good laugh, check out his stats on a 3-2 count this year. He will literly swing at anything offered on 3-2.

And of course the worst part is nobody in the Braves organization understands that there is a problem here.
   13. Aspiring One-Armed Economist (6 - 4 - 3) Posted: August 04, 2006 at 03:43 PM (#2127292)
And of course the worst part is nobody in the Braves organization understands that there is a problem here.

I am not sure about that. Its possible that agree that there is a problem, but think that having him try to alter his approach will do more harm than good. If he doesn't improve one bit and simply continues to do what he's done for the last year and a half for the next 15 years, then he'll have had a solid career.
   14. Dizzypaco Posted: August 04, 2006 at 03:50 PM (#2127301)
If he doesn't improve one bit and simply continues to do what he's done for the last year and a half for the next 15 years, then he'll have had a solid career.

I'm not sure what this is based on, because he's a pretty terrible baseball player right now. He's a corner outfielder with a .281 on base percentage and a .445 slugging percentage. He has to improve just to get to mediocre. The only thing that makes him look respectable is the hot streak that started his career.
   15. JPWF13 Posted: August 04, 2006 at 04:40 PM (#2127367)
I mean, there might have ben guys with lower walk totals or whatever, but no one with plate discipline so obviously bad.


guys like Garvey, Buckner and Al Oliver had extremely low walk totals, not so much because they had no patience and couldn't recognize a ball/strike (they weren't good at it- but not abominable like Frenchy)- but they had such good contact skills that it was hard for them to go through several pitches without putting the ball in play.

with Frenchy it's random- when he doesn't swing it seems like whether the ball is hittable or not doesn't matter. I think he decides before the pitch is thrown whther or not to swing.
   16. Dan Turkenkopf Posted: August 04, 2006 at 04:55 PM (#2127382)
with Frenchy it's random- when he doesn't swing it seems like whether the ball is hittable or not doesn't matter. I think he decides before the pitch is thrown whther or not to swing.


Is there any chance of an eye problem? That seems like the description you'd hear if the batter just couldn't see the ball.
   17. bunyon Posted: August 04, 2006 at 05:16 PM (#2127399)
You should also consider that people in the organization think there is a problem but don't think going to the press and discussing it is part of the solution.


Talking honestly to the media is not the key to winning baseball games. If you're right and no one is working with him on this issue, then sure that is bad. My guess is they are. Of course, I'm guessing coaches since he was 7 have been trying to work with him on this.
   18. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 04, 2006 at 05:26 PM (#2127411)
As I said during the Yankees-Braves series, I've never seen a more undisciplined hitter. I mean, there might have ben guys with lower walk totals or whatever, but no one with plate discipline so obviously bad. He has no concept of the strike zone.


Jose Guillen, when he first came up with the Pirates, was about as bad. I see a lot of similarities.

-- MWE
   19. JPWF13 Posted: August 04, 2006 at 05:34 PM (#2127421)
Is there any chance of an eye problem? That seems like the description you'd hear if the batter just couldn't see the ball.


I don't think so- he actually makes contact on some of this crap he swings at. I think he just never bothered to learn to swing only if the ball is "here" and to take if the ball is somewhere else-

I mean we (almost) all played little league, and most hitters know after the fact if the ball is a strike or not- but there's little or no connection between the part of their brain that says, "strike" or "ball" and the part that says "swing". Some hitters figure out that the only way they'll gwt to HIT is if they swing at everything- if you're a patient hitter you won't get to "HIT" because the pitchers at that level don't throw enough strikes.

The guys who never learn after the pitch is thrown selectivity (ie: decide to swing or not after the pitch is thrown) generally get weeded out as you move up from little league to JV to Varsity HS to the minors/college. For Frenchy to make it all the way to the MLB is extraordinary- but he probably never HAD to learn selectivity, because even without it, he could hit any pitching short of MLB caliber- and as godawful his OBP is- he's not the worst hitter in MLB either.

Personally, I don't think he's going to remotely approach what his potential could have been if at 17/18 his coach stuck him in a batting cage every effing day, and said he couldn't leave until for 20 straight pitches (random balls & strikes) he swung at every strike and took every ball.
   20. JPWF13 Posted: August 04, 2006 at 05:42 PM (#2127426)
Jose Guillen, when he first came up with the Pirates, was about as bad. I see a lot of similarities.


I think Jose was seen as un-coachable from the get go- no one has said that about Frenchy- it's more like he's been mis-coached- but Atl is a good oprganization...

If Frenchy wanders in the wilderness awhile like Guillen before getting his act together (more or less), I think Atl fans will be greatly disappointed.

What's really amazing is that most ATL fans think Frenchy is a good/great hitter, NOW, in 2006.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: August 04, 2006 at 06:07 PM (#2127456)
If he doesn't improve one bit and simply continues to do what he's done for the last year and a half for the next 15 years, then he'll have had a solid career.

No he won't. His career EQA is now 256, below league average, which is not "solid" for a corner OF. And of course this year it's even worse. That 256 is now the same as Ryan Langerhans's career EQA. His career ISO is now 208 which is nothing special for a corner OF (he doesn't hit a lot of doubles). 270/300/480 is basically Tony Batista (255/300/455, 249 EQA) at a corner OF spot. Nice 4th OF though.

Now, I have no problem with folks arguing that he'll develop, comparing him to Jose Guillen, etc. And if Bobby Cox isn't worried, who am I to question him. What I am saying is that he needs to improve to be an average, much less good, corner OF ... and great seems so far off as to be unattainable.

He's much younger, but he seems like Mark Quinn, who seemingly took pride in not walking (and who oddly walked decently at age 26 then turned into an insane hacker at 27).

Francoeur has a 7/1 K/BB ratio for his career and 9/1 this season. Even Jose Guillen was only 5/1 in his youth. Soriano had 1 year at 7/1 (2002) but is under 4/1 for his career. Ivan Rodriguez (from the article's list) was never worse than 3/1. Albert Belle was 4/1 in the beginning. Even Wily Mo Pena, about whom I've had similar doubts, has never been worse than 6/1 and is 5/1 for his career.

And now the coup de grace:

Francoeur: 33.8 AB per BB
OZZIE Guillen: 28 AB per BB

Francoeur has to improve.
   22. baudib Posted: August 04, 2006 at 06:27 PM (#2127476)
He will.
   23. battlekow Posted: August 04, 2006 at 09:36 PM (#2127887)
He will.

Well, if he gets any worse, he'll lose his job.
   24. OCF Posted: August 04, 2006 at 09:43 PM (#2127918)
Re: the inclusion of Abner Dalrymple on this list.

The White Stockings played in a field, Lake Front Park, that had a ridiculously shallow left field fence. It was so extreme, that in most years, a ground rule specified that balls hit over it would be doubles. Playing with that ground rule in 1883, the entire team hit 13 home runs.

In 1884, for whatever reason, balls hit over the short fence were ruled home runs. Of the 322 home runs hit in the entire 8-team league, 142 of them were hit by White Stocking players, including 13 by King Kelly, 21 by Cap Anson, 22 by Dalrymple, 25 by Fred Pfeffer, and 27 by Ed Williamson. In 1885, the team moved to a different park, and the team HR total went down to 54, led by Dalrymple's 11. (Williamson hit 3 HR in 1885.) Williamson's 27 HR would stand as the (generally unknown) major league record until 1919 when a certain superstar Red Sox pitcher started playing more outfield.

Kelly and George Gore drew plenty of walks in 1884. The rest of the team? Here are some of the HR/BB totals:

Silver Flint (C) 9/7
Anson (1B) 21/29
Pfeffer (2B) 25/25
Williamson (3B) 27/42
Tom Burns (SS) 7/13
Dalrymple (LF) 22/14
Billy Sunday (4th OF) 4/4
John Clarkson (P) 3/2

Williamson attracted considerable support in the early years of Hall of Merit voting, but that support waned, and he is now a fringe candidate, hanging on deep in the backlog with a few loyal supporters. Exactly what to do with that 27-HR season of his has always been one of the issues surrounding his candidacy. But the team doesn't lack for elected Hall of Merit members: Anson, Gore, Kelly, and Clarkson.
   25. Mac T Posted: August 04, 2006 at 10:45 PM (#2128131)
Francoeur has been a little hit-unlucky this year and probably should be hitting about .280, which would get his OBP in the .300 range. Which is still pretty lousy...

Homer tonight. 21/10.
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