DRays Bay: Anderson: High Stakes for Kazmir

Or as Vanny Clyburn has been calling him..."Kazmirage."

Something that has flown under the radar for the Rays is the performance of Scott Kazmir. The team is winning despite Kazmir’s tRA sitting at 3.99, the highest since 2005. Is there a reason for the young ace’s regression, or is it simply a hiccup in his promising career?

...Kazmir is throwing the same amount of strikes as he did in prior seasons, and more first pitch strikes, yet his average pitch total per plate appearance is up to 4.3 some bit higher than 4.06 last season. Kazmir is getting a few more strikes swinging and less strikes looking. Hitters are swinging at 50% of Kazmir’s pitches and 78% of his strikes (both increases by 2% over last season) and making contact 74% of the time, which is again slightly up from last season. Last season post-all star break Kazmir had an amazing run and averaged nearly 15 swinging strikes and seven groundballs over his last 15 starts. Post all-star break this season Kazmir is averaging 12 swinging strikes and five groundballs.

It’s probably not time to worry because Kazmir is still a good pitcher, but adjustments will need to be made if the Pitchf/x data is indeed correct. Kazmir has to bring his pitches per plate appearance down in order to become more efficient, in nearly 2,300 pitches Kazmir has gotten through 126.3 innings, Roy Halladay worked through 159.3 innings on roughly the same amount.