my memories are dim on Old Comiskey

There's an excellent reason for that if you did in fact go there.

If you never went, that's an even better reason, I must admit.

Appropros of nothing whatsoever, I hate the "takes on" headlines. Hate them.

Appropros of nothing whatsoever, I hate the "takes on" headlines. Hate them.

Agreed. I only give it a pass when the subject is notoriously difficult or reclusive.

Appropros of nothing whatsoever, I hate the "takes on" headlines. Hate them.

TVerik Takes on "Takes on" Headlines!

Voros is a Count Five fan? That's cool!

Words to live by:

Go after bad ideas, but be kind to the people who have them.

Voros is a Count Five fan?

I thought everyone was at least for Psychotic Reaction.

Voros comes accross as a decent guy, but I suspect for him he'll be "defending" until he's 80.

I personally loved DIPS, I put it to a couple of guys who used to play a little ball when they were younger and they thought it made a lot of sense right off the bat. It's not the holy grail, just another tool in the tool box. The fact that it predicts ERA better than ERA seems to get no mainstraim notice. Ah well.

my memories are dim on Old Comiskey

There's an excellent reason for that if you did in fact go there.

If you never went, that's an even better reason, I must admit.

I always liked going to Old Comiskey, it was poorly lit which made for a horrible TV presentation, but it was fun at the stadium. Then again I'm probably not the best expert on stadiums since all I really care about is having a seat close to the action and being able to get to the stadium easily. Palm trees, swimming pools, ferris wheels, throwing cages, sushi, and all that other crap is meaningless to me.

Is it me or does it sound like Baseball has chewed up Voros and spit him out? He sounds like a child star who wants nothing to do with Hollywood. I don't know him, I've never read his blog, and I'm an idiot, so there's three points against what I'm saying.

Personally, I think the idea of the Three True Outcomes (walks, strikouts and home runs) is the most important sabermetric concept ever. Obviously, BABIP is the same thing (oppositely).

I always liked going to Old Comiskey, it was poorly lit which made for a horrible TV presentation, but it was fun at the stadium.

Oh, I had GT's there, no doubt, but really, it wasn't a nice place except for there was a ballgame going on.

Personally, I think the idea of the Three True Outcomes (walks, strikouts and home runs) is the most important sabermetric concept ever. Obviously, BABIP is the same thing (oppositely).

Not only do a I agree 100%, but I'd say that it's influenced my thinking on topics outside of baseball pretty heavily. It's such an awesome illustration of finding a way to make better predictions by eliminating a lot of the 'noise' from a set of data and focusing on the 'signal'. Right now I'm attempting to do the equivalent on the results of fishing tournaments.

Personally, I think the idea of the Three True Outcomes (walks, strikouts and home runs) is the most important sabermetric concept ever.

What is the "idea of the TTO"?

What is the "idea of the TTO"?

I'd say it's that those are a better predictor of pitcher ERA than ERA itself is. That's a huge, huge, huge finding. It seems obvious now, but nobody was aware of it ten years ago.

Of course you can do even better by adding in other factors, like GB/FB ratio. But the initial idea was the biggest leap forward.

If he wanted to pick his own nickname, why not "Tim"?

That's better than Phil.

So you aren't talking about Rob Deer.

I get the impression Voros has either gone, or perhaps more likely, is going through some real personal troubles. It seems he keeps making cryptic comments about his state of mind. Maybe it's just me, but I find it a bit unsettling. It seems like he wants to talk about it, or is doing all he can to not talk about it. There's a kind of trauma that's coming through since he resurfaced.

Voros, if you're listening: you have more friends than perhaps you realize.

TTO came out of rec.sport.baseball

Long before the concepts mentioned in #13. Don't recall who first came up with it, though it does sound like something Gary Huckabay would say.

In 1996 Ben Hitz had the following .sig

Void Where Prohibited * Laden With Cosmic Significance
Ayatollah of the Three True Outcomes, etc.
Rob Deer Fan Club (RDFCect, find out what it means to me)

There was also the Church of the Deer. Same basic concept. A semi-joke.

Appropros of nothing whatsoever, I hate the "takes on" headlines. Hate them.

Larry King does this. "Bill Maher Speaks Out!"

As if an interview with Bill Maher is as difficult to secure as one with Howard Hughes.

Voros, if you're listening: you have more friends than perhaps you realize.

Yes, all these random weirdos around the interweb who have read your work would do anything for you in a time of crisis.

I have to agree that Voros comes off as a little mentally wobbly. Sort of Aspergers, really.

"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man."

-- George Bernard Shaw

I agree that Voros comes off a little troubled over the last month in his blogging and comments both in this interview and in a thread we had at btf a month ago. I hope he's doing good.

Voros, if you're listening: you have more friends than perhaps you realize.

Yea.

Yes, all these random weirdos around the interweb who have read your work would do anything for you in a time of crisis.

Few things, 1) don't be so extreme - it's not a mater of "do anything" or doing nothing. Sometimes just being there for some moral support can be beneficial.

2) You can flip it around. If you don't think random weirdos on the interweb aren't really much in terms of friends, then it also stands to reason that he's gotten fewer enemies than he might think. In particular, I remember him making a comment in last month's thread from his website where he complained about having many people literally hating him for coming up with DIPS. . . . Yea, I hope he's doing alright.

Just RTFI. I never knew Voros wasn't his real name.

"TTO came out of rec.sport.baseball"

It might have existed offline before that; maybe back in '93. I think that I read something like that in some Red Sox book. It might've been a Blohard thing. Of course, I could be FOS.

'93 isn't before rsbb.

I'm pretty sure I'd heard of the TTO back when I started off in rsb. (93-94ish). Not that that pins things down at all.

Voros, I think, has been pretty upfront about where "he is", as far as these sorts of things go.

I get the impression Voros has either gone, or perhaps more likely, is going through some real personal troubles. It seems he keeps making cryptic comments about his state of mind. Maybe it's just me, but I find it a bit unsettling. It seems like he wants to talk about it, or is doing all he can to not talk about it. There's a kind of trauma that's coming through since he resurfaced.

A reference to Seroquel will do that. It's not a drug you pop for fun.

Sometimes just being there for some moral support can be beneficial.

Well said. I'll be a random fan cheering for Voros from life's left-field bleacher section.

Voros has never strucken me as a weird guy socially, more like he combines a dry, self-deprecating wit, with a lack of desire to be diplomatic. I keep telling the guy a little glad-handing would go a long way, but it's just not his style.

I've never had the pleasure of meeting the V-man in person, but I've known him for 12 or 13 years now and I care about him and what happens to him and I'm sure there are plenty of others that do. And I know there are plenty of people that care about me, too - when my grandfather died last year, I got a lot of messages of support from people, like Chris Dial, who I consider good friends (I had an extremely close relationship with my grandfather).

Voros has obviously had some problems in his life (as mentioned, Seroquel isn't like popping Sudafed or Tylenol), but it's good to have him around. Some of these debates are hard for him because he ends up getting involved with people who have been railing against a mythical Voros construct for the last 5 years and frequently he didn't even have the option of putting in a word in his own behalf.

Some of these debates are hard for him because he ends up getting involved with people who have been railing against a mythical Voros construct for the last 5 years and frequently he didn't even have the option of putting in a word in his own behalf.

He's like BTF's own version of Sven (Blue Lion).

More seriously, Voros reminds me of some of my favorite guys in academics, in that I think he's a pretty nice guy and that puts him at a huge disadvantage in a non-negligibly large sea of people with a lot less talent who are much bigger ass holes. I think he has a way of thinking outside of the box and every field needs guys like him, including sabermetrics. Some people push the field deeper and that's their talent, but Voros is one of those guys who tries to push it sideways, which is just as important.

My big mistake was giving away my "Psychotic Reaction" moment for free. Oh well.

I wonder how many million-dollar ideas have been given away for nothing or virtually nothing in baseball? Even if Voros could have monetized DIPS itself, how could he have possibly received anything close to fair value for it? All that happens is the super-rich get richer.

More seriously, Voros reminds me of some of my favorite guys in academics, in that I think he's a pretty nice guy and that puts him at a huge disadvantage in a non-negligibly large sea of people with a lot less talent who are much bigger ass holes. I think he has a way of thinking outside of the box and every field needs guys like him, including sabermetrics. Some people push the field deeper and that's their talent, but Voros is one of those guys who tries to push it sideways, which is just as important.

That's a good way of putting it. Back in my Usenet days, Voros was always one of my favorite posters: funny and smart, with a different view of things than everyone else. His making the big time kind of came out of nowhere, as it probably did for him. I wish him the best.

I wonder how many million-dollar ideas have been given away for nothing or virtually nothing in baseball?

The world is rife with folks who had an idea and wonder why it doesn't make them rich. Obsessing on such things can unhinge folks, like the guy in Chicago who killed a patent lawyer last year for the crime of telling him his idea wasn't good. My father personally knows a guy who twenty years ago came up with a way of taping cars for being painted...well, without going into details, he thinks 3M stole the idea and the guy is still trying to get 3M to pay for it. Then there's the Hart Schaffner Marx sandwich-sign guys in the Chicago Loop who claim HSM stole their designs...are they still out there? I would suppose so, they were there the entire time I worked in Chicago, they seemed pretty focused.

You have to let it go.

Asperger's?

I may have a virtual smorgasboard of mental disorders, but that's not one of them.

On me not getting rich, I'm fully aware of how many people didn't get rich off of innovations. The Wright Brothers didn't (or not as much as they would have liked) and I'm no Orville Wright.

It's more or less a joke. It's just not easy to walk into some place looking for work with "statistical consultant to baseball operations for the Boston Red Sox" as one of your resume lines. They generally have you escorted out by security, or look uneasy that someone delusional is sitting across for them. They'd be right on the second point, but it's still unsettling:

Interviewer: I have to tell you Mr. McCracken, we don't generally hire janitors here who have done statistical analysis for a baseball front office. Couldn't you find work that better suits you somewhere else?

Me: No, Best Buy said they weren't hiring...

And seroquel's not too bad. I originally took it for what was diagnosed as a mild case of Bipolar II (the functional form of Bipolar as opposed to the Baby Face Nelson kind from Oh Brother Where Art Thou). I'm still taking it, but a much lower dose and at night to help me sleep. I'm pretty sure I have some mild form of Bipolar, but I don't think it can be cured, and not sure that it should be. I don't think DIPS in its entirety happens without it (there was a lot of 3:30 am work there).

I really appreciate the well wishing, and its my own personal weakness to dwell on the negative about my life and not appreciate the positive. I will keep trying hard to remember that in the future. In general, the real bad spots were a while ago. The blog and my other comments are simply referencing that and poking a little fun at it, as part of my way of dealing with it. Feeling bad for someone who got to win the ultimate championship in the sport he loves is kind of silly. I feel a little bad that some of you guys don't know what it's like, as insignificant as my contributions to it probably were.

Thanks again for the kind words. And Dan, I didn't know you're granddad died, my condolences.

Oops, I have to go. My electroshock therapy begins in 20 minutes and they turn the dial up a little if you're late.

The blog and my other comments are simply referencing that and poking a little fun at it, as part of my way of dealing with it.
That's how it comes across. Anyhoo, here's a little more well wished your way.

Yes, all these random weirdos around the interweb who have read your work would do anything for you in a time of crisis.

Late to the party I see, but I for a rebuttal to this comment, see this story:

Macdonald Lays Down Sacrifice, Everyone Wins

"Right now I'm attempting to do the equivalent on the results of fishing tournaments."

This could be the funniest thing I've ever read on Primer. I hope was intended to be humorous.