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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Ever wonder what would happen if you mixed one-part Jesus Melendez and one-part Bad News Cubs?
Bill James has forgotten more about the game of baseball than I’ll ever know. He’s been the baseball equivalent of Isaac Newton as it pertains to statistical analysis. He’s employed as Senior Baseball Operations Advisor with the Red Sox, and I write articles for this website in my spare time with no compensation. He has two World Series rings and I can’t find my high school class ring. So please spare me the flames – I know I’m going to baseball hell for the dual sins of challenging what James says and rooting for the Yankees, not to mention not having all that big of a problem with the DH.
In The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract James ranks White and Rice as the 25th and 27th best leftfielders of all time respectively. He goes into detail as to why White is better. The crux of James’ argument is that White was more valuable than Rice by translating their respective “Run Values” to “Win Values” by adjusting for league, park, and outs. I will make no attempt to even pretend I understand the math involved with that. It’s not that I can’t; it’s that I don’t want to. If that invalidates my argument in your mind, so be it. I’m an advocate of sabermetrics, but only to a point. Games are still played on the field, not on a calculator. If baseball truly is our national pastime, then I think we need to address it on a level that Joe Baseball Fan can understand without breaking out his slide rule.
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without breaking out his slide rule
well, he's got two of the key words--he forgot "spreadsheet", though
(This catch phrase of mine isn't going to stick, is it?)
Then it be so.
Regardless of what you might think about the rest of the author's article - and the cited paragraph doesn't do the full article justice; it's actually a very well-written critique - he is spot-on with this sentence. Whatever James's other flaws as an analyst, he's always excelled at bringing the discussion to a level which allows the average fan to engage in the discussion.
-- MWE
I made the point back when I was fighting in the Rice wars that while I agree with James' conclusion on their 5 year peaks, Rice looks better than White if you use 3 years, 4 years, 6 years, or pretty much any other definition of peak. Not a lot better, bit just a wee tiny bit better.
The author talks about the effects of expansion in the middle of White's peak. Another similarity as the American League expanded again right in time for Rice's peak.
White was a better fielder than Rice, but the same park effects we account for in offense need to be considered on defense. The gap between them is not as huge as it appears at first glance. Last I talked to Michael Humphreys, DRA did not park adjust.
Having read the White/Rice comment, I can comment that (a) it was quite easy to understand, as Mike is exactly correct that this is perhaps James' greatest skill as an analyst and (b) I'm unconvinced. White was a lot closer to Rice in value than I thought, but you have to juke a few stats to get him above Rice.
Carcetti's going to run you out on a rail if you juke the stats!
Bill James talks as pretty as Clay Davis.
It was still pretty radical at the time for Bill James to make a strong case that Roy White was even in the same ballpark as Jim Rice. It's one of his better essays, I think, and very easy to understand without a slide rule or anything.
White dined out against the Indians, but then so did everyone else for years before and after.
Like White on Rice.
Stuck Inside Mom's Basement With the Spreadsheet Blues Again
Isn't that kinda what Win Shares was designed to do?
I always struggled in school with writing because I was always trying to write what I thought my teachers wanted me to write. Probably a German Catholic thing. I always felt that I had some inner writer dying to get out. Now that I've done it a few times, I find it relaxing just writing what I want while trying to craft it to make it as interesting as possible.
And any style tips (too many commas or parenthetical expressions?) are welcome.
EDIT: fixed grammar
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