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Monday, March 24, 2008

Dugout Central: Caimano: Robinson Cano is Better Than You Think

But maybe not as good as John “CANO WILL WIN MULTIPLE BATTING CROWNS” Sterling or Bobby “Cano’s gonna hit 40 HR’s one year” Murcer think he’ll be.

As good as Cano has been, he still isn’t a great or fully developed player. The two things most likely to stunt his growth are his plate control and his fielding. Cano more than doubled his career high in walks last year when he drew 39 free passes. Needless to say, that number is still far too low, but at least it’s moving in the right direction. If he can continue to learn from a dugout full of patient teammates, his offensive numbers could approach those of the best active second baseman, Chase Utley of the Phillies.

...Does all this mean that Robinson Cano is destined for the Hall of Fame? No, he still has a long, long way to go before anyone can legitimately begin making that claim. It does mean, however, that he’s better than most baseball fans think he is, and that his continued improvement is critical to the Yankees’ ability to continue to be one of the best teams in the majors. This year marks the rebuilding of the Yankees’ pitching staff, but other than Cano and possibly Melky Cabrera, we have yet to see the next generation of hitters. Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada won’t last forever, and New York needs Cano to be the bridge between its current superstars and those they hope to develop in the next few years.

Repoz Posted: March 24, 2008 at 06:45 AM | 44 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralNY Yankees

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Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. TomH Posted: March 24, 2008 at 07:30 AM (#2718240)
Freddy Sanchez + 10 singles into home runs = R Cano

Freddy Sanchez is better than you think!
   2. rfloh Posted: March 24, 2008 at 07:53 AM (#2718245)
#1

Cano is 25, Sanchez is 30
   3. The Essex Snead Posted: March 24, 2008 at 09:28 AM (#2718287)
It would be great if folks made loads of spurious assertions (like #1), and other folks actually responded to each one in a po-faced manner (like #2).
   4. RB in NYC (Now with an Apartment!) Posted: March 24, 2008 at 09:42 AM (#2718292)
Also, I like how:

"2006 Batting Champion + A bunch more power" is somewhat supposed to equal "Insult!"
   5. Mister High Standards Posted: March 24, 2008 at 09:47 AM (#2718294)
I think Cano, is worse than most people think. I think he is a good player, not a star level player.
   6. Shooty misses Bill King Posted: March 24, 2008 at 09:53 AM (#2718298)
Are there any players rated exactly correct by everybody?
   7. aleskel Posted: March 24, 2008 at 09:55 AM (#2718301)
Are there any players rated exactly correct by everybody?

Neifi!
   8. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 24, 2008 at 09:56 AM (#2718302)
Some time in the next three years Cano will probably be the best position player on the Yankees. He's probably the second or third best right now. I don't know if that's how people rate him.
   9. Mister High Standards Posted: March 24, 2008 at 09:58 AM (#2718305)
Some time in the next three years Cano will probably be the best position player on the Yankees. He's probably the second or third best right now. I don't know if that's how people rate him.


So your saying at some point in the next 3 years Cano will be better than A-rod? Pass.
   10. Mister High Standards Posted: March 24, 2008 at 09:58 AM (#2718306)
Are there any players rated exactly correct by everybody?


Yes, every player is rated exactly correctly by me.
   11. kevin Posted: March 24, 2008 at 09:58 AM (#2718307)
As good as Cano has been, he still isn’t a great or fully developed player.


Actually, he is. It just seems like he isn't because he plays in the same division with Pedroia.
   12. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 24, 2008 at 10:03 AM (#2718312)
So your saying at some point in the next 3 years Cano will be better than A-rod? Pass.

The difference between the two isn't that great thanks to defense. If A-rod turns in another 135 OPS+ at some point and Cano hits around what he hit in 05 for a full season, he'll be the better player.
   13. Mister High Standards Posted: March 24, 2008 at 10:14 AM (#2718327)
The difference between the two isn't that great thanks to defense. If A-rod turns in another 135 OPS+ at some point and Cano hits around what he hit in 05 for a full season, he'll be the better player.


Cano picks up 5-10 runs on position. He is not a tremendous defensive player, it's unlikely he can make up the difference, especially when their likly offensive production is vastly different.
   14. Bob Dernier Ressort Posted: March 24, 2008 at 10:26 AM (#2718337)
Geez, everybody should have the Yankees' problems. Ian Kinsler might be the best ballplayer on the Rangers right now, all things (experience, durability, consistency, potential) considered. Kinsler is not as good a hitter as Cano, they're maybe about even as fielders, and Kinsler is four months older. IOW the guy that some are saying is not as great as he's made out to be might be the best player on some other clubs.
   15. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 24, 2008 at 10:29 AM (#2718340)
He is not a tremendous defensive player

From TFA:

His 2007 season, rated a +17, was above average

His ZR had him around 10 runs above average. Is he Adam Everett? No. Is he a much better defender than A-rod, who is right around average defensively? Yeah. You and I don't agree on his offensive ceiling, so I'm not expecting you to agree with me. But as long as I don't believe Cano has had his best season by 24, which I don't, there's no reason to not expect him to start matching up with A-rod soon since A-rod will be 32 next year and Cano will be 25. I do not think Cano will ever have a season like A-rod had last year, but 04 and 06 are part of A-rod's performance record too. I think it's likely that Cano exceeds A-rod once in the next three years.
   16. Mister High Standards Posted: March 24, 2008 at 10:32 AM (#2718346)
From watching Cano play, I don't doubt he is average defensivly. I don't doubt he is slightly above average. I do doubt he is signifigantly better than A-rod after positional adjustment.
   17. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 24, 2008 at 10:35 AM (#2718349)
I do doubt he is signifigantly better than A-rod after positional adjustment.

Then we're going to disagree.
   18. The Good Face Posted: March 24, 2008 at 10:37 AM (#2718352)
The difference between the two isn't that great thanks to defense. If A-rod turns in another 135 OPS+ at some point and Cano hits around what he hit in 05 for a full season, he'll be the better player.


It's certainly possible if A-Rod has another off year and Cano puts up a OPS+ over 125, although A-Rod's basestealing/baserunning probably puts him somewhere between .5 and 1 win better than Cano, which would cover any positional adjustment. Really just evidence of how damn good A-Rod is rather than an indictment of Cano, who I like a lot.
   19. Sometimes it Rains (sj) Posted: March 24, 2008 at 10:45 AM (#2718359)
Actually, Cano is just as good as I think!
   20. catomi01 Posted: March 24, 2008 at 10:53 AM (#2718370)
can we all just agree that Andy Stankiewicz is the best middle infielder the yankees have ever had? I would have said Wayne Tolleson, who was certainly better than Cano and that Jeter guy, but a mustache injury in 1988 derailed what should have been a hall of fame career.
   21. Bob Dernier Ressort Posted: March 24, 2008 at 11:07 AM (#2718391)
I remain an Enrique Wilson fan.
   22. galaxieboi Posted: March 24, 2008 at 12:23 PM (#2718473)
Where do you guys see Cano developing? 25+ homerun power? 75 walks? I'm not dissing him, I actually think he's a fantastic ballplayer.
   23. kevin Posted: March 24, 2008 at 12:36 PM (#2718488)
Where do you guys see Cano developing? 25+ homerun power? 75 walks?


In their dreams.
   24. RB in NYC (Now with an Apartment!) Posted: March 24, 2008 at 12:44 PM (#2718499)
He could hit 25 homers in a year, that would hardly shock me. But I think he's more a 15-20 HR guy, with 40 2B.

And I love Cano, but if he walked 75 times in a season I'd be floored. He still doesn't have 75 walks in his career.

All that, plus excellent defense, means he's my guy for best AL second baseman over the next ten or so years.
   25. bibigon Posted: March 24, 2008 at 12:45 PM (#2718501)
PECOTA has Cano overtaking A-Rod in value in 2011. That sounds about right to me.
   26. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: March 24, 2008 at 12:46 PM (#2718503)
I can see Cano at 27 have a better year than ARod at 34.
   27. aleskel Posted: March 24, 2008 at 12:51 PM (#2718508)
Where do you guys see Cano developing? 25+ homerun power?

I don't know about the "+" part, but he did hit 19 in 2007. Could he hit 6 more this year? Sure, why not.
   28. kevin Posted: March 24, 2008 at 01:03 PM (#2718522)
All that, plus excellent defense, means he's my guy for best AL second baseman over the next ten or so years.


Pedroia farts in your generale direction.
   29. RB in NYC (Now with an Apartment!) Posted: March 24, 2008 at 01:15 PM (#2718535)
Why doesn't Petunia actually have a single season where he is more valuable than Cano before he starts treating me like a Japanese fan with the nerve to enjoy a baseball?
   30. Larry Bowa Approves of The Justin Upton (1k5v3L) Posted: March 24, 2008 at 01:21 PM (#2718544)
kevin, you are the best thing to happen to BTF since Jack O'Keefe's letters
   31. CrosbyBird Posted: March 24, 2008 at 01:31 PM (#2718552)
And clearly Cashman didn't want to sign A-Rod to a big extension, or he would have done it before the opt out.

If you count intangibles, Pedroia is already better than Babe Ruth.
   32. PreservedFish Posted: March 24, 2008 at 01:32 PM (#2718556)
Where do you guys see Cano developing? 25+ homerun power?

I can see it, easily. There is power in his swing. I don't know where this comes from, but my image of Cano in 8 years is of a very muscular, Ruben Sierra-like man, playing first or DHing. And a bulked up slow Cano will hit 30 homeruns in his best years.

The 75 walks I have no idea about. But if he progresses like I think he will the walks will go up, if only because he will be pitched more carefully.
   33. B. Selig Posted: March 24, 2008 at 01:37 PM (#2718565)
Actually, Cano is just as good as I think!


No, the headline was talking to me.
   34. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 24, 2008 at 01:40 PM (#2718566)
The 75 walks I have no idea about. But if he progresses like I think he will the walks will go up, if only because he will be pitched more carefully.

Cano makes contact too easily to walk 75 times. He's more likely to hit .360 to get his OBP up among the great hitters than he is to walk 75 times.

The 25 HRs I see coming at some point, I don't know how consistent it will be though.
   35. Larry Bowa Approves of The Justin Upton (1k5v3L) Posted: March 24, 2008 at 01:55 PM (#2718584)
Career stats

Pedroia:
Home: .334 .391 .482 .873 OPS (299 ab)
Away: .265 .335 .365 .700 OPS (310 ab)

Cano:
Home: .296 .329 .468 .797 OPS (767 ab)
Away: .330 .361 .508 .870 OPS (854 ab)

Pedroia at Yankee Stadium
.273 .351 .394 .745 OPS (33 ab)

Cano at Fenway Park
.359 .389 .563 .952 OPS (103 ab)

The reason Pedroia is even in this discussion (which, granted, is being stoked by a deranged man who dreams of being sandwiched between Pedroia and Ellsbury) is that he's playing in a ballpark that forgives his piddling power and rewards him with an significant number of doubles he has no business getting. Fenway Park, ironically, was probably made for Cano. He'd be an MVP candidate if he played 81 games at Fenway...
   36. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 24, 2008 at 01:58 PM (#2718590)
The reason Pedroia is even in this discussion

He's not, there's no need to make it a serious comparision.
   37. JPWF13 Posted: March 24, 2008 at 02:01 PM (#2718593)
The reason Pedroia is even in this discussion

He's not, there's no need to make it a serious comparision.


Yes but the Cano/Petunia threads have been fun :-)

At least Kevin hasn't tried arguing that Petunia > Wright in awhile....
   38. The Good Face Posted: March 24, 2008 at 02:07 PM (#2718596)
Where do you guys see Cano developing? 25+ homerun power?

I don't know about the "+" part, but he did hit 19 in 2007. Could he hit 6 more this year? Sure, why not.


What he said. Also, some of it is probably based on amateur scouting... Cano really stings the ball. Unlike some high average guys who slap and spray the ball around, Cano can and does drive pitches on a regular basis.
   39. Shock Posted: March 24, 2008 at 02:12 PM (#2718605)
...

Can we just say Cano is underrated by Sox fans and overrated by Yankee fans and leave it at that?
   40. jmurph Posted: March 24, 2008 at 02:27 PM (#2718622)
Can we just say Cano is underrated by Sox fans and overrated by Yankee fans and leave it at that?


No. I'm a Sox fan and will happily acknowledge that Cano is much more valuable than Pedroia is (and I love Pedroia).

We're still right about Nomar over Jeter, though, right? Right? Come on, you guys remember Nomar. Twitchy fella? Married to that Mia Hamm.
   41. JPWF13 Posted: March 24, 2008 at 02:39 PM (#2718631)
We're still right about Nomar over Jeter, though, right? Right? Come on, you guys remember Nomar. Twitchy fella? Married to that Mia Hamm.


WERE right, past tense, NoMAH was more valuable than Jeter before he started getting hurt.
   42. Dizzypaco Posted: March 24, 2008 at 02:51 PM (#2718655)
Can we just say Cano is underrated by Sox fans and overrated by Yankee fans and leave it at that?

No, we can say that Cano is underrated by Kevin and overrated by Yankee fans.

Seriously, there are two important questions here. What is Cano's upside, and what is he likely to do. People sometimes confuse the two. Cano has a terrific upside - he might turn into one of the best players in the league. On the other hand, there are lots and lots of examples of guys as good as Cano at the same age, and who don't really develop much. What is Cano likely to do? Personally, I think Cano is very good now, but I wouldn't put even money on him developing much further. At the same time, I would put money on him having a terrific year at some point.
   43. Toolsy McClutch Posted: March 24, 2008 at 04:06 PM (#2718792)
I'm pretty high on Cano, I could see him besting 30HRs within 2 years. Course, I was also a fan of this guy.
   44. chris p Posted: March 24, 2008 at 04:15 PM (#2718803)
WERE right, past tense, NoMAH was more valuable than Jeter

thanks to the steroids.
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