small.... sample..... size.....

Though it is true that Jorge's not exactly a great defensive catcher. while i'm really surpirsed at how good Cervelli's catching game is.

For a more reasonable perspective on this issue, see this article in the Tuesday NY Times.

This is some shoddy analysis.

history will insist that Posada and Varitek are comparable players, won't it? because of the damn rivalry? ####### espn.....

This is the same guy that wrote a hatchet job on Posada last year. Yankee fans are a fickle lot, but I don't believe I've ever seen so much Posada-hate from one before...

More interesting will be the Yankee decision when Jose Molina comes back. They're not going to carry three catchers in the bigs, and I believe Cervelli has options and that Molina does not. So I suspect that Cervelli would go down, but there'll be some major media whining.

but Cervelli is batting .298 to Posada’s .288, which is not bad.

This essay is an embarassment and this particular statement is a groaner. Cervelli's OPS+ is 71. Posada's is 144. Apples and oranges. This guy has a serious axe to grind.

This essay is an embarassment and this particular statement is a groaner. Cervelli's OPS+ is 71. Posada's is 144. Apples and oranges. This guy has a serious axe to grind.

Well, I don't think OPS+ is going to convince anyone who is convinced by this guy. It's better to point out that he has one walk and two extra base hits -- both doubles. He has about the emptiest .298 batting average ever.

He has about the emptiest .298 batting average ever.

Baggypants Moskowitz..."Suzyn...if given the chance, I believe Cervilli can hit .300 in the majors."

Cervelli was hitting .190 in AA when called up. He's done better than expected for an emergency call-up, but that .298 batting average vastly inflates his contribution since he has little power and drawn only 1 walk in 19 games. The alleged advantage in handling the pitchers may also be largely illusory since Posada's numbers are inflated from catching those disastrous early-season starts by Wang.

All that having been said, I'd take an offensive contribution like Cervelli can offer, if this is sustainable - from a backup catcher. Molina doesn't feature the BA upside, and isn't noticeably (by me) better behind the plate.

Cervelli has been pretty impressive so far. He looks like a guy who could have a very nice career ahead of himself as a backup and if he lucks into a good season at the right time could make himself some stupid money in free agency.

And speaking as a Red Sox fan I agree 100% that he should start over Posada.

Baggypants Moskowitz..."Suzyn...if given the chance, I believe Cervilli can hit .300 in the majors."

... he said between fingerscoops from the press box ice cream bowl.

Anyone who advocates benching a catcher with a 144 OPS+ should have his blog (and his children) taken away.

And frankly, the Yankees don’t need the home runs right now—they lead the league with 102 home runs….by 10.

That's about the stupidest piece of analysis I've seen this year.

I think he's advocating benching the DH with the 120 OPS+.

*looks up Matsui's numbers*

I'm really stunned that he's producing at a 120 OPS+ level. If I had to guess, I'd have come up with about 90. He's looked incredibly putrid at the plate to my eyes recently.

I think he's advocating benching the DH with the 120 OPS+.

OK, then just take away the children.

I'm really stunned that he's producing at a 120 OPS+ level. If I had to guess, I'd have come up with about 90. He's looked incredibly putrid at the plate to my eyes recently.

Matsui is incredibly streaky. When he's going bad, he is absolutely atrocious. Swing-and-a-miss at balls in the dirt, and rolling over on outside pitches for routine grounders to 2B.

They really should rest him more when he's slumping. When's Nady back?

He's looked incredibly putrid at the plate to my eyes recently.

He went through a brutal stretch at the beginning of June (May 29-June 8: .136/.269/.273) and before that he was hitting for power but not much else (May 15-28: .237/.293/.553). But he got a day off for the Boston series and he's hit a ton (.375/.524/.813) since then.

I was trying to come up with a way to chart OPS over the course of the year. But with the declining value of each PA towards the end of the year, I think it might be a problem math-wise.

I was trying to come up with a way to chart OPS over the course of the year. But with the declining value of each PA towards the end of the year, I think it might be a problem math-wise.

How about a rolling 10-game average? If you have game-by-game stats, it should be easy to set up in a spreadsheet.

All that having been said, I'd take an offensive contribution like Cervelli can offer, if this is sustainable - from a backup catcher. Molina doesn't feature the BA upside, and isn't noticeably (by me) better behind the plate.

This pretty much. Molina is a fine defender, but I'm not convinced he's any better than Cervelli, and Cervelli can at least outrun my grandmother.

Also, although I'm fine with the notion of Burnett having a personal caddy if he really hates throwing to Posada, the idea of cutting the playing time of your 144 OPS+ catcher so a defensive whiz with a 71 OPS+ can start is so dense that it's actually warping spacetime.

Molina has a good rep but has gotten fat and immobile IMO. I think he frames well enough but when he drops to block and then tries to get up he looks like an old man scrambling to his feet. Cervelli is better and so was Cash.

Cervelli was hitting .190 in AA when called up. He's done better than expected for an emergency call-up, but that .298 batting average vastly inflates his contribution since he has little power and drawn only 1 walk in 19 games. The alleged advantage in handling the pitchers may also be largely illusory since Posada's numbers are inflated from catching those disastrous early-season starts by Wang.

His horrific start in AA this year non-withstanding, his minor league track record over the last 3 year does suggest that he could hit a little. and maybe even take some walks, but he'll be a guy with occasional gap power at best.

Still, if he starts walking a bit more and can turn in something in the semblance of a 90ish OPS+, then you'd seriously consider having him catch most of the game next year and have Jorge DH. if only due to the health issues and Cervelli's arm.

Still, if he starts walking a bit more and can turn in something in the semblance of a 90ish OPS+, then you'd seriously consider having him catch most of the game next year and have Jorge DH. if only due to the health issues and Cervelli's arm.

No way. Unless Posada simply can't catch at all. You limit Posada to maybe 90-100 games.

Is Cervelli the Yankees version of Omir Santos?

Is Cervelli the Yankees version of Omir Santos?

Apparently.

I don't know why people still don't grasp that a player who combines below average defense and an elite bat at a defensive-oriented position, is a really valuable thing, and his value goes down if you try to move him down the defensive spectrum. See Jeter, Derek, and Posada, Jorge.

I'm also fascinated by the heavy weight people are placing on catcher defense, despite the fact that we can't even begin to quantify most of it.

Which people? Just because we can't quantify it doesn't mean that scouts and people who work full-time looking at players can't judge catcher defense.

Is Cervelli the Yankees version of Omir Santos?

Apparently.

As a Mets fan, this statement pisses me off. Sure, people are falling in love with Cervelli to the point where they are advocating sitting a vastly superior player. And sure, Posada is much better than the two players Santos somehow moved ahead of on the Mets' depth chart. In those ways (which is probably all that was meant), the comparison is fare. But Francisco Cervelli is a far superior player to Omir Santos.

Cervelli is a 23 year old with a career .273/.374/.381 minor league line. That is not the kind of player you want to play over Jorge Posada, but there's reason to believe he could eventually hold his own in the majors.

Omir Santos is a 28 year old with a career .258/.303/.348 line in the minors. That anyone could think he should be playing in the major leagues as a backup, let alone a starter is very very frustrating. Jerry Manuel says there is a Schneider/Santos platoon for now, but that it will change based on who plays better, which basically means that Schneider will outhit Santos for about a month, Manuel won't realize it, and then Santos will play every day for the rest of the season. Sorry to hijack, but it pisses me off.

Hey, I hate Santos as much as the next guy. Basically the only thing I know about Cervelli is what I've read in this thread, which made him sound Santos like.

Which people? Just because we can't quantify it doesn't mean that scouts and people who work full-time looking at players can't judge catcher defense.

The people who want Cervelli to catch and Posada to DH.

I don't care if people can judge good from bad, which is not even established for many aspects of catching. If we have no idea whether the difference is 5 runs, or 10 or 15, you just can't advocate displacing a much, much better hitter for an allegedly superior defender.

Based on the state of knowledge today, we don't even know if Cervelli is a better defender than Posada. Posada could be 10 runs better p.a. at calling a game (pulling a number out of my ass), more than offsetting any advantage in arm and passed balls.

I actually want Cervelli and Molina to catch more.

Because Posada should DH more. Posada should DH in every game he is not catching. Look, Matsui's knee is a time bomb. As soon as he goes on the DL, let Posada catch 1-2 games a week, Molina catch a couple, and Cervelli catch a couple.

If only because we can hopefully extend the life of Posada's bat.

I actually want Cervelli and Molina to catch more.

Because Posada should DH more. Posada should DH in every game he is not catching. Look, Matsui's knee is a time bomb. As soon as he goes on the DL, let Posada catch 1-2 games a week, Molina catch a couple, and Cervelli catch a couple.

I disagree. Cervelli and Molina are offensive black holes. Literally, in the sense that they both suck. Obviously Posada should be getting ample time off from catching considering his age and recent injury history, but the fewer games the Yankees are punting a lineup spot with a terrible hitter, the better. Health allowing, I'm putting Posada behind the plate 4 days a week.

I disagree. Cervelli and Molina are offensive black holes. Literally, in the sense that they both suck. Obviously Posada should be getting ample time off from catching considering his age and recent injury history, but the fewer games the Yankees are punting a lineup spot with a terrible hitter, the better. Health allowing, I'm putting Posada behind the plate 4 days a week.

Concur. It would be nice to have a decent hitting backup C so Posada could catch ~80 games and DH 60-70, but the Yankees don't have that guy.

Then, say next year, the yanks invest in a better catcher than Molina/Cervelli. Then their backup C is posada, only with a bat good enough to DH.

You can rotate the other position players into a DH role, resting people without losing their production.

I would rather see Molina/Cervelli in the lineup 4 days a week than 7 days a week.

WE MUST PROTECT THIS CATCHER!

NYTimes reporting Sammy was on the 2003 positive list. Someone with the keys, approve.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/sports/baseball/17doping.htm

I'm also fascinated by the heavy weight people are placing on catcher defense, despite the fact that we can't even begin to quantify most of it.

Wow, that's DiPerna-level stupidity right there.

Then, say next year, the yanks invest in a better catcher than Molina/Cervelli. Then their backup C is posada, only with a bat good enough to DH.

You can rotate the other position players into a DH role, resting people without losing their production.

That would be ideal.

The Yankees situation is kind of odd in that Cervelli/Molina are not particularly bad by backup catcher standards. It's just that most starting catchers aren't particularly good hitters anyway, so plugging in a 70ish OPS+ guy to fill in as your backup isn't a big deal. When your starting catcher hits like Posada, the dropoff is glaringly obvious, and coupled with Posada's fragility puts them in a place where they really need a second "starting quality" catcher.

You'd essentially carry three catchers, SJ?

I'd think you want to carry five outfielders instead; even the current team has five "outfielders" (even if Hideki hasn't seen his glove recently).

I'm also fascinated by the heavy weight people are placing on catcher defense, despite the fact that we can't even begin to quantify most of it.

Wow, that's DiPerna-level stupidity right there.

Please show me your estimates of how many runs above or below average Posada's game calling was worth last year? We don't even know if it was above or below average. Fangraphs doesn't even try to calculate catcher defensive value.

All we have is anecdotal BS based on pitchers liking to throw to a guy.

What is stupidity is complaining about the likely slightly below average defense of a catcher with a 124 career OPS+ who currently has a 144 OPS+.

You'd essentially carry three catchers, SJ?

whats the difference between carrying three catchers, and carrying 2 catcher and a guy who can't play the field?

You know, the 61 Yankees* carried three catchers and they did OK. Three catchers is not a death sentence.

*Molina is not going to be Elston Howard, but Cervelli could turn into Blanchard, right?

No? still, that team had three catchers.

To carry three catchers, one would have to be able to play somewhere else. Yogi and Blanchard both played extensively in the OF.

The Yankees could really us a OF/C or 3B/C hybrid. Brandon Inge would be a nice pickup for the Yankees if Detroit ever looks to shed some salary.

All we have is anecdotal BS based on pitchers liking to throw to a guy.

I am not sure this is BS.

We have Berroa on the team, and I'd much rather have three catchers on the roster than him.

I am not sure this is BS.

It's BS b/c we can't quantify the impact, or even know if there's an impact.

It's BS b/c we can't quantify the impact, or even know if there's an impact

Just because you can't quantify something, doesn't mean you it is BS.

If pitchers don't like throwing to a catcher, or if he is calling the wrong pitches at the wrong time, that matters.


Simply because you assign a value to it doesn't make it any less a part of the game.

The Yankees could really us a OF/C or 3B/C hybrid. Brandon Inge would be a nice pickup for the Yankees if Detroit ever looks to shed some salary.

Pablo Sandoval does this with the Giants. He's a pretty good hitter to boot.

If there was some reason why the Yankee fourth outfielder had to leave the game, I'm sure that Matsui could strap on the equipment and play there. As a matter of fact, the Yankees have a plethora of guys (especially compared to recently) who could fake CF in an emergency.

The modern game makes it seem that 13-man pitching staffs are the norm. So that leaves room for twelve position players. Take the starting eight out of that, and you're left with four bench spots. You'll have a backup catcher, a utility infielder, a fourth outfielder, and one other guy. I guess that other guy can be a C/DH, but your team is awful thin in positional depth.

You know, the 61 Yankees* carried three catchers and they did OK. Three catchers is not a death sentence.
*Molina is not going to be Elston Howard, but Cervelli could turn into Blanchard, right?

The chances of Cervelli turning into 1961 Johnny Blanchard seem pretty slim. Yogi playing a lot of leftfield made carrying 3 catchers possible, the bats of Howard (153 OPS+) & Blanchard (167 OPS+) made it a smart move, and it was before the DH slot commanded a roster spot. The case for both Molina & Cervelli appears less compelling.

It was a joke. The 1961 Yankees were the 1961 Yankees for a reason.

Just because you can't quantify something, doesn't mean you it is BS.

It's not BS, but it does mean we shouldn't give it as much weight in our analysis. It means you shouldn't pay for it as much. This is akin to why fantasy owners in auctions spend more money on hitting than on pitching. Nobody doubts that pitching is half the total points allocated, but because they can't be predicted as well, people know better than to spend half their auction dollars on it.

Put another way, lets say I had a +5 RAA hitting CF, who was +10 by my best defensive estimate, and I've got a +5 RAA hitting C, who is also +10 by my best defensive estimate. All else equal, and I can only sign one of these guys, you agree I should take the center fielder, right?

It's not BS, but it does mean we shouldn't give it as much weight in our analysis. It means you shouldn't pay for it as much. This is akin to why fantasy owners in auctions spend more money on hitting than on pitching. Nobody doubts that pitching is half the total points allocated, but because they can't be predicted as well, people know better than to spend half their auction dollars on it.

Put another way, lets say I had a +5 RAA hitting CF, who was +10 by my best defensive estimate, and I've got a +5 RAA hitting C, who is also +10 by my best defensive estimate. All else equal, and I can only sign one of these guys, you agree I should take the center fielder, right?


Exactly my point.

And, if your choice is a) +5 RAA, +10 Def CF or b) +20 RAA, -5 Def CF, you pick b) b/c you're more confident in the offensive statistics.

Even more, if a) and b) are C, b/c the catcher defensive stats don't even attempt to capture game calling and pitcher handling, which are a big part of real world C defense.

The affinity people have for catchers who can't hit, and the distaste people have for catchers who can, is really interesting. The silliness of this never ceases to amaze me.

No, Cervelli's defense -- to the extent it can be quantified -- doesn't come close to making up the massive gap in offense. How absurd.

No, one shouldn't move Posada to DH and replace Matsui's bat with Cervelli's. How absurd.

The value of having an elite hitter for the position who can field the position adequately is continually underestimated, to the point of being utterly bizarre.

Meh, I want Posada's bat in the lineup, and I want him to be healthy. He is among my favorite Yankees of all time, and I don't want him on the DL every other month for the next three years.

He is older, and very old for a catcher. He needs more rest than just the day after a night game.

I don't know why people still don't grasp that a player who combines below average defense and an elite bat at a defensive-oriented position, is a really valuable thing, and his value goes down if you try to move him down the defensive spectrum. See Jeter, Derek, and Posada, Jorge.

I'm also fascinated by the heavy weight people are placing on catcher defense, despite the fact that we can't even begin to quantify most of it

This would be true in a vaccume. but the real key issue here is that Jorge Posada is turning 39 next year. making him more of the DH/C is more about protecting him from the DL than anything else. This is on the assumption that Cervelli's walk rate in the minor start comming back to him , I'm obviously not advocating starting a 70ish OPS+ guy everyday. but with his body of work in the minor and everything else considered. it's not absurd to think that he might put up something of a 90ish OPS+ in the majors.

As for Catcher's defense, yeah, it's hard to quantify. but it's even harder to say it really doesn't matter. and from all the obvious (SB/CS) and not so obvious (CERA and general feel of them in game) it's hard to see how anyone can say Cervelli isn't a major upgrade defensively from Jorge Posada. if simply due to the fact that Jorge probably isn't much younger than his dad.

Matsui's contract is up after this year and it's highly unlikely that they bring him back. so the DH spot is open anyway. they could either sign a perment DH or they'll end up rotating guys in the DH. the later seems more likely given that most Yankees hit like DHs anyway. and looking at their current guys, no one make more sense to stay at DH more often than Jorge.

Exactly, if Posada is 27 this isn't even a discussion.