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Saturday, September 06, 2008

Dugout Central: Ehrke: Another 30-game Winner Just Isn’t Possible

Shhh…Don’t tell that to Chuck Seelbach. (brought up from the Htrae Facefolders…Seelbach won 30 games in my old Strat-O league!)

No one today pitches 28 complete game victories. Starters are too dependent on their bullpens to win 30 games. Let’s “go Pythagorean” one more time. Let’s assume our possible 30 game winner averages seven innings per start – 245 innings, a real workhorse by today’s standard. This means he needs his bullpen to pick up the other two innings. The average major league bullpen has an ERA of 4.03. Allowing 7% more unearned runs, they surrender about 4.31 runs per nine or 0.958 runs in their two innings of work. Remember, to win 30 games for a typical team the pitcher must keep his runs allowed below 1.89 per nine. The bullpen just surrendered 0.958 of those 1.89 runs. The starter can only allow 0.932 runs in his seven innings of work. That means that after making adjustments for unearned runs the starter must maintain an ERA of 1.11 or less to win 30 times.

No one’s going to record a 1.11 ERA.

Repoz Posted: September 06, 2008 at 12:33 PM | 30 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Hal Chase Headley Lamarr Hoyt Wilhelm (ACE1242) Posted: September 06, 2008 at 12:58 PM (#2931050)
average major league bullpen
...
typical team


Okay, let's put him in front of a good bullpen on an atypical team. Or is "no one going to do that"?
   2. Babe Adams Posted: September 06, 2008 at 02:14 PM (#2931077)
Dean won 30 with 33 starts. Grove won 31 with 30 starts.
   3. Boots Day Posted: September 06, 2008 at 02:47 PM (#2931096)
Pitchers don't even get 30 decisions any more. Even a workhorse like Roy Halladay has a career high of 29 decisions. How's he going to win 30 games?
   4. RJ in TO Posted: September 06, 2008 at 02:58 PM (#2931105)
Through his sheer awesomeness.

On a more serious note, Halladay is one of the few pitchers I could see making a legitimate run at 30 (assuming things break right). After all, he throws a ton of innings in general, always goes deep into games, has been relatively free of arm trouble, and has expressed a willingness to pitch in a 4 or 4.5 man rotation (for a GM who has also previously expressed interest in using a 4 man rotation), which could get him into the high 30s in starts. He also pitches for a team with a very good defense and bullpen, both of which will help him.

Now, with all that being said, I think the likelihood of him even getting 25 wins in a season is at maybe 5% at the high end, and the odds of getting 30 wins being somewhere less than 1%.

EDIT: Interesting fact - Halladay has gone less than 6 innings in only 1 start this year.
   5. The District Attorney Posted: September 06, 2008 at 03:49 PM (#2931131)
Dean won 30 with 33 starts. Grove won 31 with 30 starts.
Heh, yeah, this is true! If a guy started 20-30 times and was also used out of the bullpen in tie games, that would actually make it much easier for him to win 30 than it would if he were a full-time starter.

Don't see that happening either, though.
   6. plink Posted: September 06, 2008 at 04:12 PM (#2931137)
On a more serious note, Halladay is one of the few pitchers I could see making a legitimate run at 30 (assuming things break right). After all, he throws a ton of innings in general, always goes deep into games, has been relatively free of arm trouble


Halladay has made more than 32 starts in a season only twice - in 2002 and 2003. Sure, if everything breaks his way he could do it, but he does seem to have to be shut down for a couple starts every year.

Sabathia seems almost as likely to win 30. Speaking of which: would it be easier to win 30 in the AL or NL?
   7. Boots Day Posted: September 06, 2008 at 04:17 PM (#2931141)
Sabathia's been about as good as a starter can be with Milwaukee, and he's won nine games in 12 starts. At that rate, he would need to start 40 games to win 30.
   8. RJ in TO Posted: September 06, 2008 at 04:30 PM (#2931147)
Halladay has made more than 32 starts in a season only twice - in 2002 and 2003. Sure, if everything breaks his way he could do it, but he does seem to have to be shut down for a couple starts every year.


In 2002, he led the AL in innings.
In 2003, he led the AL in innings.
In 2004, he had shoulder weakness, and was shut down for a good chunk of the second half
In 2005, he had a line drive hit off his leg, which is a fluke injury, and was on pace to lead the AL in innings at the time (141 IP at the ASB - damn bastard Kevin Mench).
In 2006, he missed a couple starts with forearm tightness, and still finished 4th in the AL in innings.
In 2007, he missed time with appendicitis, which is extremely unlikely to reoccur, and still finished 3rd in the AL in innings.
In 2008, he's on pace to clear 32 starts and lead the AL in innings.

For a pitcher, he's much more durable than most, and a significant percentage of his time missed can be accounted for as "fluke" incidents, unrelated to his arm.
   9. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: September 06, 2008 at 04:55 PM (#2931165)
In 2007, he missed time with appendicitis, which is extremely unlikely to reoccur, and still finished 3rd in the AL in innings.


Primey for Ryan Jones for this line!!!
   10. Billy Ripken's Obscenity Bat (Soul Man) Posted: September 06, 2008 at 04:58 PM (#2931166)
I don't think anyone's going to win 30 games with pitcher usage currently being what it is, but it's not impossible. I mean, Bob Welch won 27 in 1990. He didn't lead the A's in starts or IP...he wasn't even the best pitcher on the team that season. When you've got a team with a few huge offensive weapons (3 regulars w/OPS+ over 140) and a lights-out bullpen, anything can happen.

And if anyone wants to say that pitchers finished what they started back then...Welch threw 2 complete games all season.
   11. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:17 PM (#2931180)
Well, Bob Welch did start 35 games that year..... (the amazing thing is that Welch had 33 decisions in 35 games).
   12. RJ in TO Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:20 PM (#2931182)
Well, Bob Welch did start 35 games that year


And the league leader had 36, so it's not like Welch was miles behind.
   13. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:26 PM (#2931189)
You missed the point - what I was implying is that Welch had more starts than pitchers are getting nowadays....
   14. depletion Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:28 PM (#2931193)
That this article was written sort of guarantees that someone will win 30 in the next few years.
All it takes is a really great, durable pitcher and a really great offense. Volquez on the Red Sox with A-rod and Pujols at 3rd and 1st base. Santana on the Mets with the same two offensive additions. A really good bullpen would help, too. When you have 30 teams, there are going to be some outliers with really great offenses. Over the course of a number of years, one of those teams might have a really great starter and bullpen.
   15. RJ in TO Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:30 PM (#2931195)
You missed the point - what I was implying is that Welch had more starts than pitchers are getting nowadays....


Well, the league leader is still usually at about 35, so it's not a big difference.
   16. Boots Day Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:31 PM (#2931197)
You missed the point - what I was implying is that Welch had more starts than pitchers are getting nowadays....

Not really. 35 starts is still the most common league-leading total.
   17. Fancy Pants Handle is the AntAgonizer Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:34 PM (#2931199)
The average major league bullpen has an ERA of 4.03. Allowing 7% more unearned runs, they surrender about 4.31 runs per nine or 0.958 runs in their two innings of work.

Ugh, this is horrible, horrible, horrible analysis. If the starter is coming out after 7 with a lead, you're going to use the front end of your bullpen, which evan on an average team is much, much, much better than this (unless it's a blowout, in which case it doesn't matter anyway). Your basically eliminating the 4+ ERA guys, and going with the sub-3's...

Not saying anyone is going to win 30 anytime soon though...
   18. The Most Interesting Man In The World Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:41 PM (#2931205)
As Yogi Berra or Romeo Void would say, "Never say never".

I will go ahead and wager that the next 30 game winner will be a knuckleballer who can start and relieve, and be on a good team w/ great defense, etc.

What I think is more unlikely than a 30 game winner: Someone to win AND lose 20 in the same season.
   19. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:52 PM (#2931212)
Ryan/Boots day,

I think you are implying correlation between the number of starts by a league leader and the top number of wins a pitcher could have in a year.

(I may be misinterpreting you).

Surely you are right in the sense that the more starts you make, the better chance you have of winning more games, but looking at recent years, I see pitchers with high win numbers that were high-up but did not lead their league in starts (Cliff Lee this year, Beckett and Wang last year, Schmidt and Pavano in 2004).
   20. Boots Day Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:57 PM (#2931214)
JRVJ: At the extreme levels we're talking about, winning 30 would require a pitcher who was both the best pitcher in the league and the one who made the most starts (or very close to it). Plus lots of other things too.
   21. Crispix Attacks Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:58 PM (#2931215)
What I think is more unlikely than a 30 game winner: Someone to win AND lose 20 in the same season.

That would probably be the same pitcher who finally gives up 300 hits in a season for the first time since Phil Niekro. Livan Hernandez started this season incredibly strong, but he might not even get to his career hit (268 hits, in 2005), since he can only get to 32 or 33 starts this year.
   22. TomH Posted: September 06, 2008 at 06:23 PM (#2931231)
If the game conditions stay similar to what they are now.. correct, it's virtually imposible.

Going back to 1990 (simply to include Welch's big year), we have 34 league leaders not including strike seasons. Avg leader had 21.1 wins.. and it's getting smaller over time. Welch's 27 win year is 3.2 stdevs above the mean. A 30-win year would be 4.0 stdevs; not gonna happen.

But the game does change, sometimes quicker than we think, so "impossible" is too stonrg a word. Managers might begin using stars in relief to vulture wins. Maybe the rule book will give wins for only 4 IP (ha ha, not likely). Maybe a team will go back to the 4-man rotation, and Halladay will get 42 starts and get pulled after 5 to 7 each time. Maybe.. a dozen other things I haven't thought of.
   23. The Most Interesting Man In The World Posted: September 06, 2008 at 06:54 PM (#2931251)
Somebody could also revisit Tony LaRussa's 1993 strategy of using a pitcher for 3 innings, then another for 3, etc. In that case a 30 win season still wouldn't be likely, but it would be a notch above 'impossible'.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:23 PM (#2931269)
Oh for crying out loud. Nobody's won 30 since 1968. In fact, nobody's come close -- Carlton and Welch at 27.

Shocking.

Then again, nobody did it between 1934 (Dean) and 1968 either though Newhouser managed 29 during the war years. It's happened once since integration and just 4 times since the deadball era. Since integration, only 6 guys have even managed as manay as 27 wins (add Koufax, Newcombe and Roberts).

It's a question nobody cares about, it's a question everyone knows the answer to and it's a question not well-suited to analysis ... and it was analyzed poorly.
   25. Billy Ripken's Obscenity Bat (Soul Man) Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:28 PM (#2931272)
My point with Welch was that if a #2 starter who averages ~7 IP/GS can fluke his way to 27 wins, an ace could theoretically fluke his way to 30, given timely run support and a killer bullpen.

And I know that winning 27 out of 35 is a whole lot easier than winning 30 out of 33 or 34, but it's not so far out of the realm of possibility. Welch was 6th in ERA, 7th in ERA+, and 9th in WHIP in 1990...not really even close to being the best pitcher in the league. If he could win 27, why can't someone else win 30?

But given that Welch's 27 is an insane outlier to begin with, as TomH points out in #22, obviously the chance of winning 30 is...well, not good.
   26. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:36 PM (#2931278)
No one will win 30 until pitchers start throwing 300 IP again.
   27. Fancy Pants Handle is the AntAgonizer Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:41 PM (#2931283)
No one will win 30 until pitchers start throwing 300 IP again.

And I have no problem with neither ever happening again...
   28. Marcel Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:44 PM (#2931284)
Starters are too dependent on their bullpens to win 30 games.


Are they really? I find that hard believe. How many starters are going up to their managers after the 6th inning saying "well, I've thrown 107 pitches. better get someone up in the bullpen." The impression I get is that most pitchers want to go as deep into games as their managers will let them, and it is the managers that are dependant on the pen. The above line really seems to be just another example of someone that thinks W/L record is something that a pitcher can control.
   29. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 06, 2008 at 09:07 PM (#2931340)
As Yogi Berra or Romeo Void would say, "Never say never".

I might like Yogi better if we slept together.
   30. The Grich Who Stole Christmas Posted: September 06, 2008 at 09:17 PM (#2931349)
I mixed up my faxes. I thought I had received another "There will never be another 300 game winner!" memo.
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