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Tuesday, December 02, 2008
ESPN: Braves trade for Javier Vazquez
It was just reported on ESPN a few minutes ago. The article says it’s Vazquez and Boone Logan for Jo Jo Reyes, Brent Lillibridge, and “another top prospect.” Hopefully more details will emerge on the last player soon.
Kyle S
Posted: December 02, 2008 at 07:34 PM | 156 comment(s)
Related News: General, Atlanta, Chi White Sox
Related News: General, Atlanta, Chi White Sox
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I like this deal less than when Reyes was the headliner and Flowers wasn't in the deal. Flowers has hit the cover off the ball recently.
I'm really digging this deal from the Sox' end. Getting Flowers makes the deal -- the Sox really need someone who can take the reigns from Pierzynski in the coming seasons. Morton also sounds like a good arm for the Sox to grab -- I'll be interested in any scouting reports from folks who have seen him before. And there's been no indication whatsoever who the fourth player coming to the Sox might be...
Back issues supposedly contributed to his horrible showing in the ML this year.
I would be happy if this deal stopped at Flowers/Morton/Lillibridge. Its a bit of an overpay but yuo can live with that. Adding another good prospect just makes it a bad deal for the Braves.
But Braves' scouts have had a huge mancrush on Vazquez since time immemorial. And they are desperate for a cpl of good innings eaters.
PS : he reminds me of Gavin Floyd..so might work out well for the Sox
I think I’ve got it nailed down now: Flowers, Lillibridge, Jon Gilmore and Santos Rodriguez, a Gulf Coast League lefty, for Vazquez and Logan.
Could be nothing. The Sox have been talking austerity this winter.
Gilmore is a 3B, who the Braves drafted in the supp round cpl of years ago. Still hasn't show any power, though he hit a fair number of doubles and for a high average when demoted from low A to Appy League. Very young in baseball terms as he is from Iowa and didn't get many games in.
I have no clue who Santos Rodriguez is !
Interesting "K" ratio.
He looks like someone Kenny Williams would love - young, lefty, wild, and overpowering.
Interesting "K" ratio.
41/12 in 26 ip and no HRs! but he was repeating GCL too. Meh, not too worried. Thats the strength of the Braves system at the moment. Bunch of hard throwers at the low level.
Poor McCann is going to catch 140 games and then play in the other 22 games in some capacity again. I hope all his yoga is paying off!
Wow, the White Sox just cleaned up on the Braves.
http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2008/12/02/hampton_is_gone.html#comment-211735903
Is my sarcasm detector broken?
Unlike everyone else here (I think), I like both Reyes and Morton and am glad that the Braves are apparently hanging on to them. Tyler Flowers showed some huge power this fall, he's a big loss. Lillibridge is expendable, and I don't care about Gilmore or Rodriguez.
Optimistic so far...
Which would be a welcome change from hearing 24/7 how Oliver Perez is the non-kosher Sandy Koufax, and how Maine is the next great thing and how Pelfrey is the next Brandon Webb.
Vasquez (whom I like quite a bit), Jurrjens, Campillo, Reyes, Morton doesn't exactly scream dominance. Now, throw AJ Burnett in and bump Morton out and you've got something to start wagging about, maybe. Fold Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson in come 2009 and you've got real sh*t talk on your hands again.
Flowers is a big prospect to let loose but he's blocked by McCann and he's not on the Heyward/Schafer/Hanson do-not-touch list. Lillibridge had a big upside two years ago but he's struggled mightily since and hasn't shown much promise at the ML level. Haven't heard of the other guys at all.
s/
Due back in August , I think.
I would like to poll other Braves' fans here, but a rotation of
Vazquez
JJ/Campillo
Morton/Jo Jo Reyes
Smoltz/Glavine
with Hanson/Medlen in the wings.
And a bullpen of
Soriano/Gonzalez/Acosta/Moylan/Boyer/Carlyle/Logan/Ridgeway with bunch of AAA arms doesn't sound too bad to me.
Not the greatest, but should be above average. I really really think the Braves need a power bat in the OF, and that should be the aim now. Not Peavy or Burnett or Lowe. If we get them and the power bat, its dandy. But really, we have probably one of the top infields in the majors. We need to fix that outfield ASAP, esp in LF. I wouldn't be opposed to a top heavy deal for Burrell, something like lots of $ for the first 2-3 yrs and then options.
Tyler Flowers = "anything he can get"? Really?
Tyler Flowers has his issues, but he has a legit case for being the best catching prospect behind Wieters. As some White Sox fans mentioned upthread, that itself should be a big return for Vazquez, given how empty their system is.
EDIT : what Keith said. And think of it this way. Flowers is at this point probably better than the much-hyped Hank Conger.
First off, this deal pretty much takes Peavy out of the picture. Trading Lillibridge means Escobar and Kelly Johnson are starting infielders. They could still trade for Peavy but then they'd have to pay for Furcal or Renteria. I don't see that happening.
I do see them continuing their pursuit of Burnett and/or Lowe. Vasquez isn't the ace that they were looking for. He's the "solid, capable innings eater" that they are bringing in to replace Mike Hampton.
Vasquez makes 11.75m per for the next two years. Subtract that from the 45m the Braves had for free agents and you still have 33m per year to bring in Burnett and Adam Dunn at an average of 16m per year. Probably won't spend all of the kitty on just two players, but there's wiggle room in the budget and enough to drop and incentives laden offer to Glavine (no) or Smoltz (maybe.)
Flowers is a nice prospect, but he's barely a catching prospect.
I am not ruling it out yet. Both of them have professed special affinity for playing in Atlanta under Cox. And this trade just de-leverages the Braves' position in the Peavy deal. And frankly, hype aside, just Escobar would be better for the Padres than any of the other rumoured packages.
Peavy, Burrell and Furcal for the remaining $33 mil. sign me up for that utopian scenario.
And what makes you say that? Someone who caught all year in the minors and the AFL counts as a C in my book.
I'm a little disappointed that the Sox aren't getting Morton, but overall it seems like a pretty fair deal.
What if he was also a fat juicer with a bum knee that allowed over 100 SBs last year?
Peavy, Burrell and Furcal for the remaining $33 mil. sign me up for that utopian scenario.
It's still an option, I'm just guessing the momentum is toward Burnett now, more than Peavy. I'm not sure I have a preference either way. Peavy would be cheaper but require back-filling with Furcal - I don't have a problem with that. Burnett only costs money but means a long deal for a pitcher. In my perfect scenario they sign Burnett to a reasonable deal, bring in Burrell AND Raul Ibanez and tell Smoltz he can close if he's willing to work for incentives and fight his way back onto the roster.
The Mets should have trumped this offer.
First off, this deal pretty much takes Peavy out of the picture. Trading Lillibridge means Escobar and Kelly Johnson are starting infielders. They could still trade for Peavy but then they'd have to pay for Furcal or Renteria. I don't see that happening.
I had read reports earlier this offseason that the Braves felt Martin Prado was capable of starting, opening up a possible trade for KJ or Yunel.
And that the bum knee and all allowed him to play 1B and kill low A. And then be a full time catcher when it healed. Should catching prospects ahve no injuries??
and 100SBs? he caught them at 27% which is kinda low in the minors. But apparently, he spent all fall trying to fix his throwing, and yet managed to be the best hitter in the AFL. And SB totals stop someone from being a catcher?
Just the Braves' hype machine. Prado at best is a super sub with a good line drive bat. I think he will be terribly exposed as a full timer. And he is not in the class of Escobar/KJ.
Flowers has known defensive issues behind the plate. He might work through them, or he might have to shift to 1B or DH. That he caught last year and is attempting to work through his shortcomings in the low minors in no way lessens the impact of his defensive weaknesses on his prospective value.
He's not fat. I haven't heard anything about a bad knee, nor about steroids.
The stolen bases thing is a bit misleading, as he also threw out 43 would-be basestealers. 27.7% isn't anything to write home about, but it's not unacceptable. It's better than what AJ Pierzynski can do.
Even if he doesn't stick at catcher, Flowers probably becomes the best pure hitting prospect in the Sox minor leagues. It's a fine return for Javier Vazquez.
The other three guys are nothing special, but neither is Boone Logan.
How is that less relevant than the fact that he was a juicer in JuCo and had to have a knee surgery 2 years ago? He caught half the year in low A, full year in High A and AFL. And when did SB% come in way of a good hitter sticking at catcher? Lets not even go to the Piazza/Posada level. Kendall,AJ et al have had long careers as catchers while being mediocre hitters. You think Flowers on a team with DH option has diminished value?
If he has Paul Konerko's career, I don't think the Sox would be too downhearted.
Are you giving up on Kotchmann or are you suggesting a LF/RF combo of Burrell and Ibanez? If the latter, I hope you guys have the reincarnation of Gary Pettis in CF. :-)
What about Piazza and Mlicki?
Rambert/Sasser? (Say it out loud)
An Italian stereotype might say "When I go out to the bars, Iannetta/Woodcock"
This isn't a battery but pitcher/batter: A weary, dismissive man might say "Sincock/Adcock"
-----
I didn't notice GB used Mlicki. Damn.
(EDIT) Sean, if you look through what people search on bbref, yeah, that was me.
What's worse, Ibanez/Burrell with Blanco having to run down a gazillion doubles in the gaps, or Jeff Francoeur?
I don't know anything about him being fat or his knee problems, but he was suspended for PEDs a few years ago.
A shame that we're losing Gilmore too - he had a nice season at Danville last year. Of course, lots of folks have torn up that league and never done much since, so it's hard to say how much stock to put in such a performance.
All that said, Vazquez is worth it IMHO.
This is a time to be thankful for Sean Foreman. Now we can go to B-Ref and see the defensive stats for minor league catchers. Before, the only way you'd ever know how a catcher did against the running game was if Baseball America felt like mentioning his CS%.
Next step: Can minor league catching stats predict major league performance? What's more important in the minors, CS% or SBA/9 inn, in predicting how he'll do at the major league level?
I suspect the later, as a catcher who has trouble throwing will encourage more runners to try on him, and he'll get a few CS off the slow ones so that his percentage won't be terrible. But a catcher with very low SBA against is more indicative of a guy who can throw.
As a White Sox fan, this seems like one of those rare trades where both teams got what they want. I'm very happy about what Chicago acquired:
-the four prospects
-$11.5M in savings in each of '09 and '10
-getting rid of Logan (addition by subtraction)
That being said, I have no idea what Kenny is doing. The team entered the off-season with some very specific holes to fill: 2B (assuming Alexei moves to SS), 3B, CF, fifth starter. This trade opens up another rotation spot, and Kenny appears to be stockpiling players at infield positions:
2B: Getz/Nix
SS: Alexei/Lillibridge
3B: Fields/Viciedo
Plus Betemit, who can play all three of these positions. (EDIT: And Beckham, a year or two away.) Is Kenny:
-stockpiling prospects for a trade? OR
-planning to employ the "throw 'em all out there and see which ones stick" approach to prospects?
And what is the plan for CF and the last two spots in the rotation?
Doubtful.
The Cubs also seem to have abandoned that option when they committed to Dempster.
The Padres are in serious trouble right now if they really have to shed his salary.
This trade is sort of like the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. The Braves have a track record of trading promising prospects who wind up amounting to nothing. Kenny Williams has a track record (recently, at least) of acquiring young guys who can pretty immediately step in and contribute.
Maybe the Sox bring back Jon Garland. It would be weird to trade Vazquez for prospects and then trade prospects for another starting pitcher, and I don't see them in the hunt for Burnett or Sabathia. Maybe Sheets.
As for center field, there's not a whole lot out there that's both worth having and won't cost a lot in trade.
Maybe the Sox just go with the kids for a year.
I think this is leverage to get the Pads to back off on their demands. Towers is in a tough position where everyone knows he has to deal Peavy, but he basically has only 2-3 teams he can deal with. I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves were floating this rumor to gain some more leverage on Towers.
National media or local? Just curious.
I would not want my team to give Burnett 5 years. As Neyer pointed out in his chat yesterday, besides being fragile, he's just not that great. Lowe's career era+ is 122. Burnett's single-season career high era+ is 122. And I can't imagine giving Lowe 5 years either.
There's a disturbing downward trend in Lillibridge's offensive production over the last couple of years. I think in a best-case scenario, he's Jason Bartlett or Juan Uribe.
What about Darling/Sasser?
Queen/Dickey?
Dickman/Peacock?
I don't like Lilli as an MLB starter but he plays good D at SS, 2b and CF and he can run the bases and pop the occasional double. He could be a really nice supersub
It still kills me how many internet expert wannabes kept insisting he was a better player than Yunel.
My guess is Kenny is loading up on kids to go get Peavy. They didn't get rid of Vasquez because they had too many starters, but because they didn't like him. Now they've got salary and roster space to make a run at Towers at the Meetings.
EDIT: Also, Battey-Kaat
2B: Getz/Nix
SS: Alexei/Lillibridge
3B: Fields/Viciedo
Plus Betemit, who can play all three of these positions.
I don't think most of that can qualify as stock-piling. I love Betemit but he hasn't shown himself to be more than a utility guy the last few years, Nix and Getz are fringy as hell and Lilli is a utility man himself.
I don't think anyone that qualifies as stock piling. I think KW just happens to have some useful utility men hanging around.
This makes sense, actually. Rotoworld is reporting that the Cubs are out of the mix for Peavy and the Braves seem to be out, as well. I'm not sure the Mets or Yankees have the prospects the Pads want or the stomach to part with the prospects the Pads would want. Depending on how desperate the Pads are to shed his salary, this could be a nice arbitrage possibility for KW. Dump Swish and Vazquez for prospects and package them together for Peavy so that at the end of the day you have Betemit/Peavy for Swisher/Vazquez and a prospect. That looks good for the Sox, to me.
I would honestly say CS% is more meaningful in the minors, because frequently players are just running to get practice at baserunning regardless of how good the catcher is, unlike in the majors where teams are more selective since they're actually playing to win as the #1 priority.
I can't imagine that, but if this article is to be believed, you might be right. The end of the article:
Looks like Christmas may come early for you, Jerry!
Wait until August, your opinion will change.
This is the million dollar question. Maybe KW will get Obama to call Peavy with a sales pitch on the glories of Chicago.
I think his bat will come around, but that might be my heart talking, as opposed to my head - I love that guy.
I don't see that happening. If those prospects would have been enough to make a Peavy trade happen, the Braves would have traded for Peavy instead of for Vazquez.
I know lots of people think that this is just step 1 in a two-step process to bring a big name to the South Side, and I suppose that's possible - Ken Williams is nothing if not surprising. But I'm thinking that Ken Williams is serious when he talks about trimming payroll and improving the team over the long haul.
The 1872 Middletown Mansfields sometimes featured a battery of Buttery and Clapp.
Bah. Kenny will pull of something crazy. I know it in my bones. I look forward to it every offseason.
I'm worried that he'll overpay for Brian Roberts, or worse, Orlando Hudson.
I'm worried that Frank Wren is actually going to try to win it all in 2009 and that he thinks that Vazquez is an important part of reaching that goal. Since leaving Montreal in 2003, Vazquez has had one season with an ERA+ over 100. His WHIP has been better than his ERA indicated in his tough years, but that's been a consistent presence in almost every year of his career, even when he's done well. Even if the Braves stood a chance of toppling the Mets and Phillies in 2009 (I don't see how they can do it), I don't think that it would be worth it to give up Flowers for someone like Vazquez. Even if Flowers doesn't pan out, it makes more sense to at least see if he will than to trade him for a middling starting pitcher.
What they really don't have are baseball teams that Jake Peavy will play for.
Somehow I think the Cardinals will get him in the end. It will be a very low price and I'll curse the Cubs for giving Dempster that contract instead of getting a trade done.
As much as I like Flowers, he was only the Braves' 8th best prospect according to Kevin Goldstein
That's too low, IMO. Even if we assume he's a 1B from here on out he's still a solid prospect. Sickels rated him 5th and gives him a B.
I'm worried that he'll overpay for Brian Roberts, or worse, Orlando Hudson.
Don't worry. His crazy sh!t usually ends up making sense. He's my second favorite gm to follow.
Beane
KW
big gap
??? Haven't really thought this far down, honestly. Ed Wade is fun because of the middle reliever obsession. I think I've given myself something to ponder during my next bathroom run.
Also, FWIW, in some of the Atl-SD rimors, SD supposedly really wanted Flowers included in the package.
Wow, talk about an intentionally misleading sentence.
On the flip side you could say, "Since leaving NY Vasquez has pitched between 202 and 216 IPs of 98 to 127 ERA+ ball every year."
Here is a much more honest, and accurate way to sum up Vasquez's pitching..
Javy Vasquez has had just 3 seasons in his career that were not average or better... 1998, 1999 and 2004.
You answered your own question. The Braves were absolutely desperate for innings in 2008; that cannot happen again in 2009.
Who? Give me names. League average innings eaters are very desirable commodities.
Jason Marquis!
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