Actually he ran into the umpire after he was ejected.

It's ok with me though since it was Joe Brinkman he knocked down. I hate that guy.

What's the over/under on suspension length? 4 games?

Just saw the replay. He'll probably get a suspension of several games, but there's no chance that he was trying to knock the ump down.

It's a shame because Byrd was doing well for the Natspos. He was starting to get his career in gear, and this will probably slow him down.

"I thought I could get in front of him. He was running pretty hard," Brinkman said. "Once I couldn't get in front of him, I put my arm out. He hit my arm and just spun me around and flipped me and I ended up on the ground. That's all that happened."

Maybe you could have just stayed the hell out of the way Joe.
Maybe

What was he trying to do? Take a charge?

What was he trying to do? Take a charge?

Hey, at least he was able to get his team two free throws in the process!

Too bad, his buddy, Miller already used one of them up.

F

If you have MLB.TV, it's at the 2:36 mark of yesterday's game.

There isn't a clear angle of it, but Byrd ran in a straight line from short left field over to first. He didn't move from his line at all.

The 2B ump took 4-5 steps or so towards his direction to cut him off. The ump says he reached in, and they collided, spinning the ump.

The replay was blurry, but from the way it looks, and from the accounts I've read, Byrd was not the one who initiated contact (unless he shoved him out of the way when he ran, which is possible, I guess).

I don't think anyone thinks that Byrd initiated contact. It still doesn't mean he won't get suspended.

as to length?? relatively minor infraction from a no name player??? 10 days. (if he was a superstar, played for a big market team etc he would only get 3 days.)

If he went knocked one ump over while running toward another, he's going to get more than 4 games.

If I had to guess, I'd say 5. From the few replays I've seen and the accounts, it really was the 2B ump who instigated it.

If he had let Byrd continue to run over to argue his ejection, it probably would've been fine; you can't assume that Byrd was going to bowl over the other ump. And, he has a right (well, maybe that's not the correct word for it) to argue his ejection.

Isn't Brinkman one of the worst umpires in the majors?

How sorry should I feel for him?

If he had let Byrd continue to run over to argue his ejection, it probably would've been fine; you can't assume that Byrd was going to bowl over the other ump. And, he has a right (well, maybe that's not the correct word for it) to argue his ejection.

From my point of view this is absolute bollocks. Byrd made contact with an umpire. This is absolutely off limits. You don't, under any circumstances, ever touch an umpire, or you're looking at a long suspension, in any form of any sport.

As far as I'm concerned you can say what you want to an umpire, but as soon as physical violence/contact is involved its all over. In Australia he'd get 6 months. And he'd be lucky at that.

What if it was the umpire who ran into him though?

To draw an admittedly silly comparison, if I step in front of the train, is it the engineer's fault?

Byrd was running full speed, and the ump stepped in front of him. Who is at fault?

Byrd will probably receive some punishment, which would be acceptable, but 10+ games would not be.

I'll change my tune if someone claims that Byrd reached out with his hands to shove him out of the way -- but the ump didn't claim that in the interviews last night, and the video evidence is inconclusive.

Byrd is totally on steroids.

What if it was the umpire who ran into him though?

So if say, Shaq goes running up the court to yell at a ref, and runs into another ref trying to get between them in the process, and knocks him down, hurting him, he deserves a mild suspension?

Look seriously, as a referee myself, this is absolute bollocks. Referees/umpires must be protected from physical contact AT ALL COSTS. Once you start saying that its ok for people to bowl over umpires you're on a very slippery slope. An umpires person is absolutely off limits. No physical contact should be permitted whatsover, no matter if Byrd was "running really fast to argue a call."

If an umpire gets in his way he fricking stops. Initiating contact (if he did do this, I'm sure other people have better access to replays than I do) is completely unacceptable, and should be punished in the realm of half a season ish.

Shea Hillenbrand has to do the same thing, then Ernie Whitt can hold the fu---ker down while Hillenbrand drops elbows on that b--tard.

Isn't Brinkman one of the worst umpires in the majors?

How sorry should I feel for him?

Oh piss off. I don't normally get shitty about stuff posted on BTF but this comment displays not only the highest form of ignorance, but a form of offhand maliciousness that has no place here, or on any site.

So, in your opinion, Brinkman doesn't do that great a job of calling balls and strikes. Oh great, in that case he definitely deserves to be knocked to the ground by a player, and in no case should he get any sympathy from you or anyone else.

Seriously, if we get to the stage on this site where its acceptable to say "oh well he was a shitty umpire, he deserved to get bowled over" then I quit.

Half a season?

Wanna talk about 'bollocks'?

It's not like the umpire stepped ten feet in front of him, jumped up and down and waves his arms. They arrived at the same point at the same time.

I'm not a ref or an ump, and certainly I agree there shouldn't be any contact, but the ump needs to bear a certain amount of responsibility for initiating the contact, and for stepping DIRECTLY in front of him as he was running full speed.

If you get to see the replay, there wouldn't have been time to react. Even if Byrd had tried to stop, he would've nailed the ump.

Suspend Byrd 5 games or so, I'll understand it. But the half a season crap is hyperbole.

I obvoiously don't have the benefit of seeing the replay, so I said...

Initiating contact (if he did do this, I'm sure other people have better access to replays than I do)

Meanwhile

What is he doing barrelling across the field, in your words, as he was running full speed., After he has already been ejected. He's been tossed from the game. Ejected. Thrown out. Gone. He starts pissbolting towards an umpire as fast as he can. You're telling me he shouldn't be held responsible for what happens? 5 games is rubbish, a token suspension. If you've been ejected from a game and sprint towards an umpire, barelling over someone in the process you deserve more IMHO, alot more.

He didn't KNOW he was ejected. He was going back out to his position in left field when he found out he was ejected.

That's why he was running from short left field, instead of from the dugout, or from arguing it at the time he was ejected.

Now, I'd agree with you, too, if he had stormed out of the dugout to do it, but that simply wasn't the case.

We're obviously looking at the issue through different colored lenses. But, I'd encourage you to hunt down a replay and read a few accounts, other than the AP version.

Ok, last post before I head off to bed.

He didn't KNOW he was ejected. He was going back out to his position in left field when he found out he was ejected.

I can't see this in any of the reports. As far as I can see...

As the Nationals took the field for the top of the seventh, Byrd continued arguing on his way to left, and Miller ejected him.

Byrd -- an all-state high school football player in Georgia -- then headed toward Miller, and second-base umpire Brinkman tried to intervene.

Again, having not seen the replay, from the reports it seems that he argued the call initally not knowing he was called out on strikes , but I fail to see how he couldn't know how he was ejected on his way to left field, seems like a fairly simple call. it seems to me he went to field his position, argued the call on his way, got tossed, sprinted towards the ump to argue it, and bowled over anotehr ump on the way. By the report anyway. Anyway, final disclaimer, IF THAT IS THE CASE then he deserves whats coming, along the lines of what I mentioned before. You simply can't touch an umpire whatsoever in that circumstance.

I really don't see the big deal. Obviously Byrd's at fault for flying off the handle, but some people are being waaaaay too quick to judge, on BTF and elsewhere.

Look seriously, as a referee myself, this is absolute bollocks. Referees/umpires must be protected from physical contact AT ALL COSTS. Once you start saying that its ok for people to bowl over umpires you're on a very slippery slope. An umpires person is absolutely off limits. No physical contact should be permitted whatsover, no matter if Byrd was "running really fast to argue a call."

Please calm down. Nobody here is saying that physical contact with an umpire of this sort should be permitted, or that Byrd shouldn't be suspended. People are just discussing the seriousness of the offense and the length of the suspension.

I think Byrd will get 10+ games, because I don't think the "I was running really fast at another umpire to argue a call" line of reasoning is going to garner him much sympathy from MLB. But that's a lot less than he would get if he had intentionally barrelled over Brinkman, and rightfully so.

An interesting case which I recognize is not really that similar is Tim Duncan (either earlier this season or last season): He knocked over a ref because, in the middle of a play, he mistook the ref for an opposing player setting a pick on him. It was obviously "unintentional" in the sense that, while he meant to push him, he clearly wouldn't have done so if he had known it was the ref. He still got suspended for a game, but that's a lot less than he would have gotten if it had been "intentional."

What was Byrd thinking about when he started running towards another umpire after being ejected?

I'm not saying he had anything in mind, but it's very strange. Usually ejected players (if they are upset) just throw their helmet down.

Not that at all. Unless my memory is fooling me, Brinkman is the umpire who's notorious for trying to be the centre of attention. I meant to imply he's highly unprofessional and often doing fairly suspect things, not that he can't call balls and strikes (which he can't).

For you to read anything out of a question other than undecidedness speaks to what you're thinking, not what I'm thinking.

Brinkman looks to be about average by umpire's-behind-home-plate ERA; 4.28. That's the only measure of an umpire's ability that matters to me. The fewer runs, the better the ump.

The fewer runs, the better the ump.

Nonsense. I want an accurately called game, not a big strike zone for the sake of being big and keeping scoring down.

Also, you'd have to look at what games he's umped--with such a small portion of the season done, you can't discount that.

What the hell is going on with the Nationals??

The other day, Frank Robinson came out to the mound to remove Tomo Ohka and Ohka turned his back to Robinson and Robinson had to grab the ball from him!

It would be cool if they started playing awesome and took over first place after all this kind of stuff but what will most likely happen is they'll revert back to Expos form soon and fall completely out of the NL East race.

Unless my memory is fooling me, Brinkman is the umpire who's notorious for trying to be the centre of attention.

You might be thinking of Cowboy Joe West...

This is total Paulo di Canio nonsense.

It wasn't me.

It wasn't me.

I know about you and your ump-hating ways.

Alright, from someone who was there...although since I was there with the local SABR chapter I was in a conversation and didn't see the bump.

The play was Byrd check-swinging on a 3 and 2 count, and heading to first after the plate ump called it a ball. The first base ump rung him up on appeal.

Byrd was waiting for his glove, etc., in the infield. And presumably, barking at the ump.

Next thing I knew, Brinkman was on the ground, being attended too, and Byrd was being directed back to the dugout by his teammates.

From what I've seen of the replays, though, Brinkman definitely tried to intercept Byrd while Byrd was at full speed. Yeah, Byrd should be suspended for being an ass and charging at all, as he definitely was the root cause of the incident. But he was not trying to plow over Brinkman, and may have not been trying to plow over anyone. Brinkman put himself in the position to be knocked down. Maybe you can say he was doing the right thing, but the notion that no official ever has any share of responsibility for contact is ridiculous.

You don't, under any circumstances, ever touch an umpire, or you're looking at a long suspension, in any form of any sport.

This is simply not true. In MLB, you get ejected if you make contact with an umpire. Based on the details and circumstances, you may also get a suspension. Buy by no means does contact automatically earn a suspension.

Natspos are now in first place in the NL East. We wouldn't think life could get any worse for Montreal baseball fans, but there you have it.

they'll revert back to Expos form soon and fall completely out of the NL East race

Willie Mays Haze clearly only remembers as far back as 2004. The MLB-owned 2002 and 2003 Expos were both winning teams, although not good enough to make the post-season.

We wouldn't think life could get any worse for Montreal baseball fans, but there you have it.

It doesn't bother me at all. Better the Nats than a few other East Division teams I could name.

What was Byrd thinking about when he started running towards another umpire after being ejected?

"Oh yeah, I'm so looking like Billy Martin now."

"I'm like Earl Weaver, only prettier and faster."

Really, kids, it's not like there's no precedent for player/managers charging all crazed bull toward an ump, pulling up in his face, maybe even bumping his chest, and berating him for a while. That's just part of the game. To pretend it's not and everyone is playing little league with mittens and leg warmers on is just silly.

Byrd yapped about strikes. Byrd got tossed. Byrd charged in to get his $0.02 worth. Brinkman stepped in long before Byrd had a chance to throw on the breaks and go into his tirade. This simply isn't a big deal. Five games would be plenty, if even that. Ten games would be excessive. The mere idea of suspending the guy for half a season because Brinkman clotheslined him is just idiotic.

s/

As far as the over/under on the suspension, it might be instructive to look back at the Carl Everett situation from, like, 2001, back when he was with the BoSox. After an issue involving the batter's box (if I recall), Jurassic Carl was ejected for repeatedly defying an umpire's orders. This resulted in a spit-flying, fire-in-the-eyes tirade from Everett. At some point, he inadvertently headbutted the umpire, who was somewhat taller, in the chin. Everett, who was, in those days, a pretty big star playing for a big-market contender, had to sit for ten games.

The Byrd incident should warrant something in that neighborhood. In neither situation was there malice aforethought, but both times, the player was certainly acting inappropriately. I think Byrd might get fewer games cos his suspension didn't involve intentionally and repeatedly violating the basic rules of the game (erasing the batter's box) and cos, Washington or no, nobody pays attention to the Nats anyway.

This is a case of a worst to first story effecting a players attitude. Say what you want but incredible as this may be, the fact is the Washington Nationals are in first place in the NL East.

This player's passion in such an improbable situation got the best of him. There is no way he intentionaly hit an umpire.

That being said, arguing strikes with umps has nothing but downward potential. Frank Robison needs to correct this because if the Nationals keep this up, the media will descend on the city.

This is a Sea Biscuit type story and Frank Robison should contact Joe Gibbs immediately. That man knows EVERYTHING about managing the media in DC.

Good lord, name another first place team that had the President of the United States throw out the first pitch.

Nobody ever told the people in DC that a great team is impossible, especially after the expos last season. The thing is, they are all new to this dance...and have now been treated to game after game of never say die come back baseball.

Even better, nobody ever told them a world series at RFk stadium is impossible!

heh heh...I just love it.

-Eric

Good lord, name another first place team that had the President of the United States throw out the first pitch.

Exactly what does having the Commander in Least throw out the first pitch have to do with anything?

Willie Mays Haze clearly only remembers as far back as 2004. The MLB-owned 2002 and 2003 Expos were both winning teams, although not good enough to make the post-season.


I'm exaggerating slightly. And yes I do remember the last few years of the Expos, I was actually a big Expos-follower for their last few years of existence and I even went to Montreal for a weekend in 2002 to see them play the Blue Jays.

Seriously, though: I don't think the Nationals are going to remain in contention for very long. The Phillies are finally starting to heat up, so are the Mets. The Marlins staff is ridiculous and if they get consistent hitting they'll heat up too. And the Braves of course have won the division for 13 straight years or whatever. It's hard to see the Nats remaining in the picture, even though they're in first as I type this.

I agree that it's silly to suspend Byrd for more than a few games. As far as I'm concerned, if Brinkman hadn't gotten in the way, Byrd probably would have just ran to the home plate ump and given him a piece of his mind and then left the field, something that is utterly unremarkable and non-suspension worthy. So just because an umpire initiates contact with him and prevents the aforementioned scenario from unfolding, he should be suspended for half a season?

I think if anything, you give him a couple games to "protect the sanctity of umpires", and maybe one or two because of what may have happened at the plate, just as a deterrent to players charging at umps in the future. But in my opinion the only thing Byrd is "guilty" of is running to argue with an ump. Based on accounts and a clip I saw, there doesn't seem to have been much he could have done to avoid Brinkman.

"Exactly what does having the Commander in Least throw out the first pitch have to do with anything?"

Every country with TV in the world saw that pitch. That is big.

My point is we have a big "worst to first" story in development here...In a city where there has been no baseball for a generation or two.

I was shocked to find out I could go to a game for 7 bucks plus metro (subway) fare.

I can't wait to see how all the pundits spin this.

I don't think he should be suspended for more than a few games either, but I still think that the Everett situation will probably be the guidepost when deciding what his punishment will be. I'd guess it'll be in the neighborhood of 8-10 games.

My point is we have a big "worst to first" story in development here...In a city where there has been no baseball for a generation or two.

I was shocked to find out I could go to a game for 7 bucks plus metro (subway) fare.

I don't think that the worst to first story is gonna last long. I think it may end up being "worst to . . . worst" in the end. The division is tightly bunched, and the Nats have the least talent of the pack.

That said, 7 bucks plus train fair for a game is pretty sweet.

As far as the over/under on the suspension, it might be instructive to look back at the Carl Everett situation from, like, 2001, back when he was with the BoSox. After an issue involving the batter's box (if I recall), Jurassic Carl was ejected for repeatedly defying an umpire's orders. This resulted in a spit-flying, fire-in-the-eyes tirade from Everett. At some point, he inadvertently headbutted the umpire, who was somewhat taller, in the chin. Everett, who was, in those days, a pretty big star playing for a big-market contender, had to sit for ten games.

In case I have never told this story on Primer (unlikely)--that game took place the *day after* I traded Nomar for Everett in my fantasy baseball league. And the incident happened almost exactly as I got home from work and turned on my radio to listen to the game (since the game was against my hometown Mets). I remember the Mets' announcers exlaiming things like "I don't think I've ever seen a player lose control like that," and "He's even going after his own teammates" (as Jose Offerman was supposedly trying to pull him back to the dugout), and "He might be suspended for the rest of the season!"

Sigh. Even though he only got 10 games, he basically sucked for the rest of the year.

"I don't think that the worst to first story is gonna last long."

Tell that to the thousnds of people who went to their first MLB game this season. What we have here is a team and fans that have no problem coming from behind to win multiple games in a row.

Tell them that there is no way they can have a world series.

Time will tell.

that game took place the *day after* I traded Nomar for Everett in my fantasy baseball league.

Ouch. That game was essentially the beginning of the end of Everett's career as an All-Star CF. It was like he took 10 days off and came back having forgotten how to field or hit for power.

Tell them that there is no way they can have a world series.

All right: ATTENTION, everybody who went to their first major league game this season at RFK: The Nationals will not be in the World Series. They will most likely not make the playoffs. As a matter of fact, they are likely to finish last in the division.

To me, the story of the Nats is still the tragicomedy of Montreal. Sorry. I think it's great that DC has its own team for the first time in more than 30 years, but it's not like there weren't the Orioles. I grew up in Portland, where the closest team was 200 miles away and consistently really bad -- neither of which could be said of the Orioles in the last 25 years.

So it is your contention Voxter that there is a zero possibility the Washington Nationals will be in the world series?

Fact: June 5 and they have the third best home record in the majors. Most of them are come from behind wins which increases confidence in the staff and players and fans.

Before you throw the Bullsh** flag check stuff out.

I am not so naive to predict even a playoff berth but I am here to tell you that DC has been starved for a major league team for decades and the Nats are certainly living up to their end of the bargain. They average 30 thousand fans a game.

No matter what you say, as of right now the Nationals are a Sea Biscuit story!

I think predicting even a .500 finish for the Nats is extremely optimistic.

So it is your contention Voxter that there is a zero possibility the Washington Nationals will be in the world series?

Of course that's not my contention; there's always a slim possibility of anything happening.

I never threw up a ######## flag. Think about the quality of these various players:

Vinny Castilla, Christian Guzman, Zach Day, Tony Armas, Jon Rauch, Marlon Byrd, Carlos Baerga, Brian Schneider . . . and so on and so on. In fact, almost every good player the Nats have (other than Livan) is deeply injury prone (Nick Johnson, Jose Vidro). This is not a team that is built to be good over the course of a full season. Sure, if you could play one game, with Hernandez starting, Castilla, Byrd, Ryan Church, etc, playing over their heads, Johnson, Vidro, and Wilkerson not hurt, the Natspos are pretty good. As a team that actually has to last 162 games, they're in trouble. It's just the fact of the matter.

Am I saying there's absolutely no way they'll make the postseason? No. What I'm saying is that there's about a 90-95% chance that they don't.

Why? Please try to follow this...many, many fans here in DC have never been forever scared by heartbreaing losses or even a simple hitting slump that extends into the playoffs. As of now, DC fans go to the game and almost always win. Fact...The Nats have the third best home record in the majors.

I would say that those predicting the Nats to do horrible given that fact are off base so to speak.

As for hosting the world series...Is there a team first in their their division on June 5 you would say have a absolutely zero chance of getting there?

third best home record in the majors

Well, now I'm convinced!

I have officiated various sports for a lot of years, and I was at the game. Byrd deserves a suspension of a handful of games, and let's move on. All that nonsense about "never touching an umpire" is just that.

As for the Nats, Mental, I'd cut back on the chest-thumping if I were you. They are playing over their heads in a stadium that helps them stay in games by holding down scores. It's a nice story, but it's only that...a nice story. Baseball has, with VERY few exceptions, a way of bringing whatever chickens there are out there home to roost. Will the Nats be the '89 'Why Not?' Orioles reincarnate? Perhaps. But unlikely, and it doesn't make you look like an intelligent fan to be dissing folks who think it highly unlikely...it makes you look like YOU just saw your first ML game. :)

By the way, not that many people going to Nats games are seeing their first ML games...most of them have been 30 miles up the road.

For all of Thomas' Boswell's hoo-hah about the Nats capturing the town's imagination, not breaking 40K since Opending Day until Sunday doesn't impress me all that much.

But I hope the fans that ARE gonig enjoy what they are doing...just without the chest-thumping, for Pete's sake.

It's the first week of June.

Why? Please try to follow this...many, many fans here in DC have never been forever scared by heartbreaing losses or even a simple hitting slump that extends into the playoffs. As of now, DC fans go to the game and almost always win

That's true, and it's great, but it's not going to be the case for very long. I've followed what you're saying, I'm just not sure that it has any meaning.

I'm going to reiterate something I said earlier:

it's not like there weren't the Orioles

The Orioles have consistently been one of the best orginizations in baseball since just before the Senators left town. And they're not that far away.

Sorry for the cross posting. It's funny you mention injuries. If I recall the Nats have tons of them... Since then, they have seized control of the NL East.

So far we have a team that is doing well not by their payroll but rather by their heart. They have something to prove and as far as I can tell it's working in a one in a million convergence of baseball, a city and money.

If you are predicting a collapse of this one in a million thing...I have to disagree. I know they will slump but at RFk...good luck to the enemy! ;-)

As for hosting the world series...Is there a team first in their their division on June 5 you would say have a absolutely zero chance of getting there?

Yes. Heck, this team was in first halfway through August and I recall believing they had zero chance of getting to the World Series.

Not to mention the 2003 Phillies, although that was just a curse, not regression to the mean.

So far we have a team that is doing well not by their payroll but rather by their heart.

For the love of God, are you channelling Oprah?

Interesting stat:

Despite being outscored by their opponents by 10 runs, the Nationals are 6 games over .500.

If I recall the Nats have tons of them.

I know Will Carrol isn't very popular around here, but he said that "Health is a skill," and it's true, as far as I can tell. It's a skill that the Nats don't have (among others).

Belfry,

It was never my intention to chest thump. I have never even been to a MLB before the Nats came to DC. I went to the game this past Memorial day (the infamous "foul pole" game) and got totally hooked by the beauty that is baseball.

Imagine being in your mid forties before you look at a box score. My 14 year old daughter and I are hopeless fans at this point. Imagine going to a game where they take a run off the board then come from from behind for the next 5 or 6 wins. My favorite quote from the one game I have been to is from my daughter..."dad, take these peanuts away. They are so good I can't concentrate."

There are 10's of thousands of people like me in this market. Going to a game was one of the coolest experiences I have ever had.

And now my team is in first place. Cut me some slack! People at work who never saw a MLB game before are taking vacation to check it out.

What a game and what chance the expos have fallen into.

GO NATS!

I agree with Mental, the Nats are going to the World Series. This team has more heart than the other four NL East teams combined.

Now now Eff...don't get so hasty. I have been devuoring baseball stuff since memorial day and can tell you that for the most part, baseball breaks your heart.

Hence the passion on the boards and even with the teams.

This team has more heart than the other four NL East teams combined.

Impossible. They don't have Paul lo Duca.

I have been devuoring baseball stuff since memorial day and can tell you that for the most part, baseball breaks your heart.

You learned that pretty fast. It took me two years (til the 86 series) to learn that lesson,

heh heh voxter...my damned little league coach will always burn in hell. I played infield my entire "career" and he coached the little league all star game where I played in the outfield for the first time. When the long ball any outfielder could have caught sailed over my infielder head I just died. It was a grand slam to give them a win.

The horror...yet pesron building.

I was six during the 86 series . . . game 6 was the first time I was ever allowed to stay up late (that I remember). The next time I learned it was also in little league . . . I let a ball roll out of my glove (I was an All-Star catcher who took more plays than he should have) that resulted in my team losing in 8 to Hiedelberg, who eventually defeated us by one game for the league championship. Sigh.

Damn...That is harsh

Posted by TwoAlous on June 05, 2005 at 02:03 PM (#1382816)
This is total Paulo di Canio nonsense.

What Di Canio did was wrong, but that ref took a dive worthy of the World Wrestling Entertainment...

I take the Nationals very seriously as a contender in the NL East.

They've had a sh!tload of injuries and are still in first place. They have a pretty good rotation and a very good bullpen, and possibly the best closer in baseball. Their ace starter is as good as any pitcher in the National League and he's a workhorse. They also have a very solid lineup.

The Expos the last few years were destroyed by their schedule, with all of the games in Puerto Rico. I detailed this in my THT preview for them last year - if you look at the schedule and their hot and cold streaks it's blantantly obvious that San Juan kicked their a$$. It's no coincidence that they played pretty well in the 2nd half last year when their schedule got back to normal.

So that means the perception of their talent coming into this season was artificially suppressed - they are better than they've looked the last few years.

I think they are for real, and I'll be absolutely shocked if they win less than 85 games. I think they'll end up 2nd in the division, but that's more because I think one of Philly, Florida or Atlanta will get hot than because I think the Expos will fade.

Preseason, the Nationals kept doing much better in my DMB/ZiPS sims than I expected. I went through the stats, and I found, basically, that they were consistently getting some of the best starting pitching in baseball. (They were also getting key contributions from a bunch of crap AAA corner players, but, hey, that's ZiPS for ya.)

So far, Loaiza has been good, as I though, and Patterson looks like a breakout, but Day/Armas have been bad, and Ohka looks like he's not right.

The Nationals have the best winning percentage in their division, but the worst run differential. Part of that is their bullpen - Robinson and St. Claire do a damn good job - but part of it is their lack of offensive talent and their struggles in the back of the rotation.

I expect one of the NL East teams to stage a run soon and pull away. Washington could be that team, but of the five in the division, I'd be most surprised if it were the Nationals.

They have a pretty good rotation and a very good bullpen, and possibly the best closer in baseball.

Ok, agree with the first part of this statement, but then, I got to the second part, and that's a pretty bold statement about a player who's only in his second season as a closer. Especially with players like Rivera and Wagner still around and performing as well as they usually do.

Heck, he might not even be among the top 3 in closers IN THEIR SECOND YEAR. I think I'd rather have K-Rod, Lidge, or B.J. Ryan.

That being said, he's a darn good closer who doesn't need hyperbole to be used on him. Just because he has a gaudy ERA doesn't make him the best closer in baseball. (check out his FIPs BP's relievers stats are for TOTAL VALUE not RATE).

F