Notable quotable: "We got the best high school arm in the country, and we got probably the best athlete in the draft. If somebody would have told me before the draft we were going to get Mr. Griffin and Mr. Crosby, I would have said 'You're nuts.'" --GM Allard Baird

That makes me laugh and cry at the same time.

The Orioles have made dozens of bad moves over the last 10 years.

Paying Belle $30MM for two good seasons and Sosa $9MM for one bad season probably shouldn't even make the top 20.

No way in hell do the Pirates have a winning season in 2010.

The Pirates section is a bit unfair.

Failing to rebuild the farm system, the Pirates tried to compensate by dishing out big contracts to mediocre players (Mike Benjamin! Pat Meares!! Kevin Young!!!) and gigantic contracts to players a step above mediocrity. The six-year, $60 million contract he gave Jason Kendall remains one of the worst deals of an entire generation.

The Kendall contract is really the exception, not the rule. We're not talking about the Orioles here. The Pirates have hardly given out any contracts at all of more than 3 years - Kendall's might have been the only one since the Pat Meares/Kevin Young era. And the contracts they did give out to Jack Wilson, Jason Bay, and Brian Giles were not exactly gigantic.

Aside from the occasional extension to one of their own players, their free-agent deals have been largely pointless, but also extremely unambitious. I am pretty sure that the last time they signed a player away from another team, for more than a one-year deal and more than $5 million was when they signed Wil Cordero in December of 1999. That's pretty amazing in today's age.

The source of the Pirates' problems has been A) incredibly bad trades of young players for useless veterans, B) incredibly bad trades of veterans for youngsters, and C) a complete inability to develop young players. C) might make B) look worse than it really is. Maybe Ryan Vogelsong and Bobby Hill would have done something if they hadn't been stuck in the Pirates' system after being traded for Jason Schmidt and Aramis Ramirez!

I am pretty sure that the last time they signed a player away from another team, for more than a one-year deal and more than $5 million was when they signed Wil Cordero in December of 1999. That's pretty amazing in today's age.

That can't be that amazing. Some teams don't sign big free agents. Since that Cordero signing, the Braves have made exactly three such free agent signings: Vinny Castilla (2002), Paul Byrd (2003), and John Thomson (2004).

Yeah, but the Braves have also produced about 100 more good major-leaguers from their own farm system since then than the Pirates have. This is a team that is perpetually desperate for players that don't suck - and then find their own cupboard is bare - and then play the bad players anyway, sometimes signing other known bad players as bit parts.

Compare their strategy over the last decade to other teams which are apparently unable to develop prospects, like the Orioles or Giants. The Giants have signed Aaron Rowand, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel, Dave Roberts, Bengie Molina, Barry Zito, and Edgardo Alfonzo to bigger contracts than Cordero's.

Maybe Ryan Vogelsong and Bobby Hill would have done something if they hadn't been stuck in the Pirates' system after being traded for Jason Schmidt and Aramis Ramirez!

No, Hill wasn't anything special. He was really overrated. Vogelsong was probably a 3rd starter at best, but we all know that the Pirates don't ever get an 'at best' from their prospects.

A third starter would have been great. So far Vogelsong has been more like an eighth starter.

It would also have been great if Armando Rios hadn't suffered a career-ending injury in his first week with the Pirates after that trade. But I don't know if that's Littlefield's fault.

Ah, Allard Baird. A smart guy capable of making scads of solid, downright excellent small and mid-level moves, but completely incapable of handling the big, franchise-altering transactions with any more dexterity and skill than displayed by an 18-year-old virgin on prom night.

In baseball, as in life, you can't make chicken salad out of chicken poop.

I'm thinking Arby's.

After that, the closet is nearly bare, with a severe lack of pitching the biggest problem.

Huh?

The O's have one of the top ten pitching talent groups around by most any accounting...but they have about three decent position prospects. So I'm not sure where he got this statement.

The Sosa comments were a reach, too. The O's took a flyer on him, nothing more. They gave nothing up and the Cubs paid a big chunk of his salary. That being said, it certainly didn't lead to wins or a good clubhouse chemistry, but it was no big deal.

Ok, 10 posts and no mention of Operation Shutdown?

I totally forgot that the Rays had to actually give up something to talk to Lou Pinella. They actually had to pay a posting fee. If Lou is worth Randy Winn, what's Dusty worth? Or Buddy Bell?

The O's have one of the top ten pitching talent groups around by most any accounting...but they have about three decent position prospects. So I'm not sure where he got this statement.

Although Spoone is hurting right now.

Yeah the comment about O's pitching was woefully written. Meant to say very little pitching talent that can contribute at a major league level right now. Obviously within the farm system things are looking up. The 2012 projection for next winning season was a nod to how long it'll likely take guys like Liz, Spoone, Tillman et al to mature into significant big league contributors.

Last time I had Arby's was at Yankee Stadium, 1995. Or as I like to call it: "The night I decided never again to eat Arby's."

I did a google search on Roscoe Crosby, and he has really led whatever is the exact opposite of a fairy-tale life. After being drafted by the Royals, he went to Clemson to become a football star. After a good career, he got signed as an undrafted FA with the Colts, got cut, signed with the practice squad for a year, got cut, got sent to NFL Europe, got cut, played for a different NFL Europe team for a year, got cut, played in the CFL for a year, and got cut. Two years after catching on with an NFL team, he has plowed through 4 franchises and stuck nowhere. Keep an eye on the Cleveland Gladiators transaction role for the next few months...

I agree that the Belle signing wasn't a bad move -- it was an unlucky move but not a bad one. But I'll buy his logic on Sosa -- it's not so much that, in isolation, it was such a bad move; it's that it's the exemplar of the dumb moves that the O's make, bringing in overpriced veteran mediocrity in the apparent belief that they're actually good.

Since that Cordero signing, the Braves have made exactly three such free agent signings: Vinny Castilla (2002), Paul Byrd (2003), and John Thomson (2004).

The Braves do avoid FA, but they've had no qualms about trading for fairly high-priced players over the years -- Tex, Renteria and Hampton are recent examples that spring to mind.

The Aramis Ramirez trade should be in the Pirates section. Now I am one of the few who defend Littlefield a little bit (in isolation ... he got out from $6 M they owed Ramirez the next year and, if ARam blossomed, they wouldn't be keeping him longterm and other mediocre 3B like Aaron Boone were bringing similar return in trade) but the absurdity of that trade is that it's clear the Pirates didn't even think they got anything worthwhile. Jose Hernandez as a short-term placeholder is one thing. They picked up a pitcher named Matt Bruback ... who the Pirates immediately put on waivers (and lost!) to try to get him off the 40-man roster. And Hill who, in mid-August mind you, they sent immediately to the minors and gave only 3 ML ABs that year and then only 233 ABs the next year.

It made zero sense. Trade Ramirez and his $6 M contract for a couple decent prospects like Hill and Bruback (nothing special) -- makes some sense if you then play Hill to find out if he can stick or not. But the Pirates clearly saw no future for Hill and Bruback from the get-go, making this basically Ramirez for a bag of balls in the Pirates' eyes.

It's one thing for a team trading a Ramirez to over-rate the prospects they get in return and end up getting burned. But to properly rate those prospects as nothing special and still make the deal is damn bizarre.

And then to toss in Lofton for free...

And I'll defend Hill a bit. No, not great, but 262/340/353 for his career in part-time play and jerked up and down out of the league. That's not substantially worse than Luis Castillo (294/368/357 ... OK 30 points of OBP is a lot) and especially what Castillo has been the last few years. It's about what you can expect out of Ryan Theriot. It's Nick Punto's career year! None of that is great, but I think if Hill had been handled better, he'd have been at least a useful bench player and probably even a low-end starting 2B.

Jonah- I enjoyed the article, but I have two quibbles:
1) Not enough Expos homerism. Don't think that people are tired of hearing about Montreal; if anything, it's a burgeoning relic that a new generation of fans should not be allowed to miss. Plus, it's not like the worldwide leader forbids bias, what with their flagship Boston shill.
2) Fewer lists. I had a neurotic college professor who unconsciously raised paper grades a full letter grade if a list was present. Kind of turned me against the enterprise. This statement is an ironic desconstruction thereof (you know, master's tools).

I had no idea that the Expos had Chris Young.

This whole article is depressing. It's comical when it's happening to someone else, but when you're a fan of one these teams it's like getting punched in the groin repeatedly.

At least the Expos are dead so I don't have to suffer any more.

Let's go Giants!

Andrewberg, your comment is confusing. Based on parallel structure it should either say

1) Not enough Expos homerism
2) Too many lists

or:

Jonah - this article should have
1) More Expos homerism
2) Fewer lists

I agree with you, BTW.

Jonah is here in the thread! Please acknowledge my Pirates comment! They have been totally uninterested in the free agent market for eight years now!

The closest thing to a multiyear, $5m+ aav free agent deal I can find in Minnesota Twins history his the 1999 signing of Terry Steinbach (2 years, $5.5m). Unless you count this year's 1 year, $5m contract for Livan.

Ooh- 2 years $6.6m for Mike Lamb, that's closer.

Schmidt trade stunk, Aramis trade stunk, Rios thing was terrible luck.

Andrew, you know I love to pimp the Expos as much as possible. But in this case I felt that going overboard would've disrespected Nats fans who see the team as a separate entity (which it really is, this article notwithstanding).

As to your other comment:

1) ESPN readers love lists.
2) I oblige.

Oh, I meant $5M+ total. Or maybe so did you. aav is average annual value?

Wil Cordero deal was 3 years, $9M. I really don't think the Pirates have done another one bigger than that since then.

You're right, the Twins and Pirates are similar in being teams that players only leave, never join. Or if a player joins the team, it means retirement is in the very near future for that player. (Phil Nevin, Rondell White, Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, and now Craig Monroe and Adam Everett)

Mike Lamb may be the exception.

Wait..didn't the Orioles follow up their 1997 season by signing the worst available infielder (Ozzie Guillen), the worst available outfielder (Joe Carter), worst available starting pitcher (Doug Drabek), and the worst available relief pitcher (Norm Charlton)? I think I would have put that offseason on the list.

I agree that the Belle signing wasn't a bad move -- it was an unlucky move but not a bad one

No, it was a bad move. It was a team that was going nowhere that decided to shell out top dollar to a old player. That's a bad move. That'd be like many other moves we rip on everyday here. The contract looks like nothing right now, but that was huge jack 10 years ago.

The Orioles of 1999 were not really "a team that was going nowhere". They just ended up getting superseded by the dominant Yankee dynasty teams.

The Orioles won 88 games in 1996, 98 games in 1997, and 79 games in 1998. Then they let Roberto Alomar go, and acquired Belle, Charles Johnson, and Will Clark, all of which were good moves. They won 78 games in an incredibly tough division in 1999, and then won 74 games in 2000, and another 74 games in 2001, as the team finally started getting old. Then Belle was out for good, Mussina left, and they started replacing all their old players with no coherent plan for doing so.

It would have been really hard to break up a team that had won 98 games, suffered the Jeffrey Maier injustice, and kept coming very close to winning again.

To echo #26's point, the pythagorean wins for the Orioles (strike years are prorated to a 162 game season):

1991 70
1992 86
1993 85
1994 94
1995 88
1996 85
1997 94
1998 84
1999 84
2000 71

The bumbling pathetic team we all know and love today didn't really exist until 2000.

The contract looks like nothing right now, but that was huge jack 10 years ago.

Belle signed with the Orioles for 5/$65. 10 days later, Mo Vaughn signed with the Angels for 6/$80.

Two years later ARod signed for 10/$250.

If Belle hadn't had a degenerative hip, that could've been a steal of a contract.

Was Jeromy Burnitz a multi-year deal? That one still makes me scratch my head.

Andrew, you know I love to pimp the Expos as much as possible. But in this case I felt that going overboard would've disrespected Nats fans who see the team as a separate entity (which it really is, this article notwithstanding).

It's a separate entity? More like it's the Expos, ravaged by Loria and MLB and essentially an expansion team. With some of the good young pitching talent in the farm system, for which I give Rizzo all the credit -- Bowden, who's never exhibited any feel for pitching, has had nothing to do with it -- I like to think they can break .500 by 2011, rather than 2012. Also, unlike Baltimore, the Nationals don't have to cope with dual evil empires who have way more money than they do. The Mets, Phillies and Braves are tough rivals, but not insurmountable ones.

Was Jeromy Burnitz a multi-year deal? That one still makes me scratch my head.

It really says something that Burnitz spurned the Orioles to sign with the Pirates. I think BBTF's Transaction had a gem on the alleged Orioles ink Burnitz deal.

I think the only reason the Orioles have sucked for so long falls at the feet of Angelos. His string of bad hires is impressive in how awful it is. Syd Thrift, Jim Beattie, Mike Flanagan...it's a wonder the Orioles aren't in worse shape.

Thanks for the article, Jonah. FWIW, understanding why a team loses consistently is more interesting then understanding why a team wins anyway.

It really says something that Burnitz spurned the Orioles to sign with the Pirates. I think BBTF's Transaction had a gem on the alleged Orioles ink Burnitz deal.

If I remember correctly, Burnitz only spurned the O's after they became nervous about his physical.

Hiring Syd Thrift, Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan as GMs.

I wasn't a fan of either Beattie or Flanagan but Syd Thift was far worse than those two. The already weak farm system went down the toilet after Thrift. At least Beattie and Flanagan brought in Joe Jordan who has improved the farm system to a respectable level.

Facing the Texas Rangers at Camden Yards on Aug. 22 of last year, the Orioles gave up 30 runs, setting a modern-era record for a single game. The O's actually led 3-0 early in the game before allowing 30 straight runs in the 30-3 loss.

My dad, who doesn't follow baseball at all, even called me on August 23 to rub in about that game. I expected trash talk from my baseball friends, and I did get it endlessly, but my dad hardly even watches any American TV. But yet news from that game somehow managed to find him.

"Nobody told me I was in competition. If there is competition, somebody better let me know. If there is competition, they better eliminate me out of the race and go ahead and do what they're going to do with me. I ain't never hit in spring training, and I never will. If it ain't settled with me out there, then they can trade me. I ain't going out there to hurt myself in spring training battling for a job. If it is [a competition], then I'm going into 'Operation Shutdown.'" --Pirates outfielder Derek Bell's reaction to competing for a starting job with the Pirates in spring training 2002, after hitting .173 the year before. True to his word, Operation Shutdown never played another game in the big leagues.

I lived in Nashville when Bell was doing a rehab start with the Sounds. Somebody asked him if he was going to visit the Grand Ole Opry and which prompted Derek to say, "Country music isn't going to kick my game dawg."

It was a team that was going nowhere that decided to shell out top dollar to a old player.

Albert Belle was 31 when he signed with Baltimore, and coming off a 171 OPS+ season. He looked like a future hall of famer, and had the career shape of someone who was likely to remain above average until his mid/late 30s. There was no reason for Baltimore, or any other team, to expect that degenerative hip would have ended his career within two seasons.

While the criticism of Baltimore being a team going nowhere may be justified in retrospect, calling Belle an "old" player, and implying that Baltimore should have known that he would be washed up so quickly, is ridiculous. Beside, if Belle remains healthy, it is not unlikely that Baltimore doesn't go into the tank for another couple seasons.

That's a fair point. If something like PECOTA or Zips could run a 5 year projection for Belle and Manny at the time they signed their long-term deals, it seems unlikely that Manny would seem like the value bet.

Interesting article. Bad luck has had a lot to do with the Orioles' lack of success.

Over the years they have brought five quality sluggers to town and few of them were around a few years later -Glenn Davis, Belle, Will Clark, Sosa, Palmiero. The first two were injured. Don't know why Sosa and Clark didn't deliver. Raffy, the first time around, might have been one of the best values ever in free agency. Most people thought some of these guys were head cases but the consensus was they would all hit well in Baltimore.

The bumbling pathetic team we all know and love today didn't really exist until 2000.

Exactly. To compare, the Pirates finished their 8th consecutive losing season in 2000. I mean, the Orioles are bad, but the Pirates are the ones who are historically bad.