Or you could argue that Francisco Rodriguez was forged in the fires of Mount Clutch, sent to Anaheim on a winged horse to perform the kind of ninth-inning sorcery that no other mortal could ever hope to achieve.

This is all kinds of awesome.

This is a rather big shift for ESPN. They're letting the smart baseball people go against the conventional wisdom of baseball, and contradict their own people like Steve Phillips, Kruk, and all the other talking heads.

Alex Rodriguez. Evan Longoria. Kevin Youkilis. Carlos Quentin. Joe Mauer. Justin Morneau.

If you limited yourself to playoff contenders for whatever reason, how many people would really vote for Francisco Rodriguez over one of those guys?

You can't vote for Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Justin Duchscherer or a dozen other candidates with better numbers because their teams probably won't make the playoffs -- which, as everyone knows, makes those players' contributions completely irrelevant.

Left A-rod off. He seems to be the only hope, but thanks to a pitching staff that looks like a MASH unit and the fact that's he's won twice in the last three years and his #s are pretty much the same as they have been, only with less games played, he's not a likely winner either. Then again, it's a close race in two divisions and the wild card. The Angels could have won it with out K-rod (a favorite among sportswriters IIRC), and I think that will keep him from the award. My prediction...Mauer.

Now, on the rare occasion when a closer gets used for more than one inning, he's subject to endless second-guessing from talking heads. With such a cushy job, throwing just 60 or 70 innings a year to boot, no amount of adjusting for high-leverage situations will make a closer as valuable as a cleanup hitter who hits .320 with 40 homers, or a starting pitcher who throws 200-plus innings and allows fewer than three runs a game. Not even a closer who saves 60 games.

Many here stated the same in 2003 and were branded "idiots". This was the year Mr. Gagne won the NL Cy Young and finished sixth in the MVP voting.

We welcome Mr. Keri to our "Confederacy of Dunces".

My prediction...Mauer.

Dude, I stated this a couple weeks ago, but we all know how this movie ends. It's going to be Justin Morneau and he's going to become possibly the worst 2 time MVP ever (I haven't checked).

The Angels could have won it with out K-rod (a favorite among sportswriters IIRC), and I think that will keep him from the award. My prediction...Mauer.

If the Twins hang on, then Morneau will win. The writers already proved that they wouldn't vote for Mauer over Morneau in 2006, when Mauer really was having the better season--they're certainly not going to do it this year, when their numbers are much closer.

If you limited yourself to playoff contenders for whatever reason, how many people would really vote for Francisco Rodriguez over one of those guys?

If he gets to 60+ saves, I think he'll be in the top 3. Easy.

Your list is the first I've really contemplated Youkilis. He's just as deserving as the other guys, but I don't know if he'll get enough votes. The national perception is that the Red Sox are Ortiz and Manny's team (now changed), and all success is due to them. Plus, he was in Moneyball.

I'll never get over the national media's infatuation with the Twins. They just love it when the "scrappy, underdog" Twins are in contention. So, yeah, Mauer and Morneau have a nice edge there.

It's going to be Justin Morneau and he's going to become possibly the worst 2 time MVP ever (I haven't checked).

At least he's outhitting Mauer (and most of the field surprisingly) this time around...

Looks like he would be the worst. By a lot. It'd be pretty strange for a guy with exactly two All-Star years to have two MVPs.

A pretty decent way to guess MVP is to just run down the list of RBI leaders and stop on the first non-DH on a contending team. Right now that's Morneau, with Quentin right behind him. If either one of those two goes on a hot streak and their team wins the division...there's your MVP.

It's going to be Justin Morneau and he's going to become possibly the worst 2 time MVP ever (I haven't checked).

Two-time MVPs are all HOFers, except Juan Gonzalez, Roger Maris, and Dale Murphy, all of whom are better than Morneau. So I'll agree with you.

We know that the MVP almost has to come from a playoff contender so that narrows the field to guys who play for the Angels, Twins, Rays, Yankees, Sox, and Sox (2). The MVP can't be a pitcher and it needs to be someone with a minimum of about 100 RBI. This means the viable candidates are...

Vlad
Morneau
Longoria
Upton
A-Rod
Giambi
Abreu
Lowell
Youkilis
Dye
Quentin

Dye is a veteran without a particularly compelling story, that's a no. Giambi's BA is too low and his defense too widely criticized. Vlad's won before and isn't setting the world on fire by his standards. Upton doesn't have the homers or the average. Abreu is the same as Dye. A-Rod is the same as Vlad. The Red Sox are too good and neither Youk or Lowell is having an amazing year. Quentin has shiny new guy glisten. Morneau has done it before but now the Twins have no Santana and his team plays the right way. The MVP is either going to be Morneau or Quentin depending on who takes the Central.

EDIT: I hate all of you for ruining the time and effort I placed into post 11.

EDIT 2: I forgot about Longoria. He will be in there to the end as well. The key for him will be to keep his average at or above .280 and pick up the RBI pace to finish above 110. If he can do that, he's guaranteed a top 4 spot. Him, Quentin, Morneau, and K-Rod will comprise your top 4.

Multi-MVP winners that raise some eyebrows:

Juan Gonzalez
Roger Maris

What about Drew? I could see him winning it, because...no, nevermind.

Seriously, how does he only have 58 RBIs?

Dye is a veteran without a particularly compelling story, that's a no. Giambi's BA is too low and his defense too widely criticized. Vlad's won before and isn't setting the world on fire by his standards. Upton doesn't have the homers or the average. Abreu is the same as Dye. A-Rod is the same as Vlad. The Red Sox are too good and neither Youk or Lowell is having an amazing year. Quentin has shiny new guy glisten. Morneau has done it before but now the Twins have no Santana and his team plays the right way. The MVP is either going to be Morneau or Quentin depending on who takes the Central.

I mostly agree with this but you left Longoria out. I think he wins if the Rays make the playoffs, otherwise it's Quentin or Morneau with A-Rod as an outside shot if everyone else fades.

I was curious to see what kind of comments this article was attracting on espn.com. After reading, I think this one was my favorite:

Hamilton hit a walkoff 3-run homer off K-Rod. I think that settles that debate.

Seriously, how does he only have 58 RBIs?

Manny stole all his clutchiness.

I think K-Rod is going to be hurt by the Angels running away with the division. If it was a close race to the end I could see him winning.

EDIT 2: I forgot about Longoria. He will be in there to the end as well. The key for him will be to keep his average at or above .280 and pick up the RBI pace to finish above 110. If he can do that, he's guaranteed a top 4 spot. Him, Quentin, Morneau, and K-Rod will comprise your top 4.

Longoria won't place in the top 5 for MVP, because he'll run away with the ROY. Sportswriters, being idiots, mostly refuse to vote a player for both ballots.

I think Hamilton wins the AL MVP this year, and thus becomes the first in awhile to do so from a non-contender.

I was curious to see what kind of comments this article was attracting on espn.com.

You're a braver man than I.

The MVP is either going to be Morneau or Quentin depending on who takes the Central.

I can't see the voters going with Quentin over Dye. Quentin's got more RBIs, but his batting average is just too low--a guy with a BA as low as .280 hasn't won the MVP since 1972. They'll probably split the White Sox vote, allowing somebody else to slip in.

I mostly agree with this but you left Longoria out. I think he wins if the Rays make the playoffs, otherwise it's Quentin or Morneau with A-Rod as an outside shot if everyone else fades.

One thing hurting Longoria is that, as best as I can tell, while it's good to be young, being a rookie isn't as good as being a second year guy. Plus, from what I've noticed the Rays narrative has focused on the pitching.

Sportswriters, being idiots, mostly refuse to vote a player for both slots.

Ichiro? Pujols? Granted those guys performed (or were perceived to have) better than Longoria has this year, but there aren't many examples of top level rookie performances on playoff teams in recent history (not any I can think of anyway).

I can't see the voters going with Quentin over Dye. Quentin's got more RBIs, but his batting average is just too low--a guy with a BA as low as .280 hasn't won the MVP since 1972. They'll probably split the White Sox vote, allowing somebody else to slip in.

Hmmm...this as well as several other posts only serves to cement Morneau's second MVP. He's the only guy that doesn't seem to have a MM hole in his story.

I can't see the voters going with Quentin over Dye.

Me neither, but more because he's come from out of nowhere to most fans and many writers this season. I can already imagine Joe Morgan telling us that "you don't become an MVP in one season" and that "Justin Morneau is an MVP, he's already proven that with the MVP award in 2006."

One thing hurting Longoria is that, as best as I can tell, while it's good to be young, being a rookie isn't as good as being a second year guy. Plus, from what I've noticed the Rays narrative has focused on the pitching.

I'm not really sure what narrative is being focused on, but the story of the Rays to the casual observer looks like a huge turnaround from 2007-08 and Longoria is the player who arrived in 2008. There were other additions such as Garza and Percival, but I don't think anyone's going to focus on them.

Ichiro? Pujols? Granted those guys performed (or were perceived to have) better than Longoria has this year, but there aren't many examples of top level rookie performances on playoff teams in recent history (not any I can think of anyway).

Ichiro both was and wasn't a rookie to most sportswriters in 2001 (giving them psychological leave to vote him in as a representative for the second-winningest team in baseball history), and more importantly he had the massive "exotic star" factor going for him. Pujols came close - as close as any non-"special circumstances" player has come since Fred Lynn - but still only got to #4 in the voting. Longoria has put up a fantastic season, but the media narrative surrounding him thus far has been nowhere near the one spun around Pujols' 2001. Longoria will probably get enough votes to make it to #6 or maybe #5 (thus I should correct my initial statement), but the prejudice against rookie MVPs is too strong to carry him further.

There were other additions such as Garza and Percival, but I don't think anyone's going to focus on them.

Jason Bartlett for MVP!

The other factor is the Vlad/Morneau factor, which is voting for a guy who has a good second half while his team goes from out of the race to into the playoffs.

I look at the East right now and see the Yankees in third and I think to myself: if some player on the Yankees has a scorching August/September, and the Yankees can win the division (5.5% chance by BPro,) that could well be your winner.

Normally, the MVP does go to someone on a playoff team or at worst a near-misser, but I do think Hamilton can win it this year. He's a "great story," and RBI is of course the dominant stat in the MVP voting.

I think the jury is out on whether Morneau is better than Juan Gonzalez or Roger Maris. I could see him ending up with a superior career. I'd be shocked if he beat out Dale Murphy, though.

MVP odds as of the ASB:

Hamilton +200
Morneau +400
Kinsler (?) +550
A-Rod +750
Quentin +1200
---
Longoria +2000
---
K-Rod +2500

Pujols came close - as close as any non-"special circumstances" player has come since Fred Lynn - but still barely made it into the top 5 for MVP voting (#4). Longoria has put up a fantastic season, but the media narrative surrounding him thus far has been nowhere near the one spun around Pujols' 2001.

The competition Pujols was up against was considerably more difficult, though, what with the winner of the award having the best offensive season in baseball history that year. All three guys finishing ahead of him were far and away better than any AL candidate from 2008. Longoria could sneak in there yet.

I look at the East right now and see the Yankees in third and I think to myself: if some player on the Yankees has a scorching August/September, and the Yankees can win the division (5.5% chance by BPro,) that could well be your winner.

This is what makes A-Rod a dark horse candidate, but he's going to have to get ridiculously hot because he's already won 3 MVPs.

Normally, the MVP does go to someone on a playoff team or at worst a near-misser, but I do think Hamilton can win it this year. He's a "great story," and RBI is of course the dominant stat in the MVP voting.

I see Hamilton ending the year with 140-150 RBI and I think he needs 155+ to overcome his team's performance. None of what I'm sayin is scientific, obviously.

Abreu is hitting .379/.461/.712 since the AS break. He's 5th in the league in RBIs. He doesn't really have the numbers yet, but he's a dark horse if he stays hot. Also, 8 assists and that Gold Glove in 05 might trick people into thinking he doesn't suck in the field.

Normally, the MVP does go to someone on a playoff team or at worst a near-misser, but I do think Hamilton can win it this year. He's a "great story," and RBI is of course the dominant stat in the MVP voting.

I really think Hamilton's got a great shot at it. Better than anyone on the Red Sox (I can't believe I typed that), better than Quentin or Dye. He has a ton of RBIs, Texas is exceeding expectations, and the post-MVP story write up is so easy that it's criminal.

Abreu is hitting .379/.461/.712 since the AS break. He's 5th in the league in RBIs. He doesn't really have the numbers yet, but he's a dark horse if he stays hot. Also, 8 assists and that Gold Glove in 05 might trick people into thinking he doesn't suck in the field.

Honestly, I don't think Abreu has a shot no matter what numbers he puts up. He's not a "real Yankee" meaning that all his success is due to the awesome clutchness of Jeter, Posada (even injured!), Pettitte, and Rivera. Plus, the national media has their story on him: he's lazy.

JD Drew has no shot because he was all that was wrong with the Dodgers and baseball. He's a numbers guy fave, and he screwed the Phillies in the draft.

Here's another cut:

If the MVP was a catcher, it would have to be Mauer.

If it was a 1B, it would be Youkilis or Morneau, probably Morneau. (And Morneau IS better than Mauer this year.)

If it was a 2B, it would be Kinsler and apparently it can't be Kinsler. If a SS, well, there aren't any. If a 3B, what? It can't be A-Rod? Then fughedaboudit. Longoria? Heck, half the writers have never heard of him.

If it was a corner OF, it could be Quentin or Dye, but they'll kill each other. If a CF, well, there's nobody on a contender.

And it can't be a pitcher.

Of course, this is only if the season ended today. You're left with Mauer and Morneau, except they'll kill each other, too, won't they? Well, unlike Quentin and Dye, they're not both OF, anyway. But if the Twins fall away down the stretch....

What you're really left with is to agree with #32, except that it might not be A-Rod. But whoever has a hot August and September is your guy, and since there's virtually nobody for him to overtake, it could be anyone of 50 guys.

and the post-MVP story write up is so easy that it's criminal.

New criterion to take into consideration: Can the writers make their jobs easier by picking this guy for MVP?

Count me as another predicting a Hamilton MVP.

Longoria? Heck, half the writers have never heard of him.

But in researching the Rookie of the Year award, they will run across his name and probably conclude that he was the biggest difference maker in the Rays transformation from losers to winners. I could see the writers developing an infatuation that lasts just long enough to give him the MVP award.

I have an MVP calculator. If I get time I'll run the ##s so far. Or someone can go to philbirnbaum.com, Aug 04 issue of BTN, and do it yourself.

As simple version is
add AVG (drop decimal) + HR + RBI + team wins
league leader bonuses: 40 pts for SLG, OBP, SB
40 pts for gold glove winner (use 2007)
add 15 pts for having at least 100 runs scored and for 100 RBI
add 20 pts for hitting at least 300

playoff team bonuses:
RBI league leader = 140
2nd place in RBI = 70
3rd place in RBI = 35 (again, only give these for a playoff team)

stolen bases add 1 pt per SB

add 70 pts for playing SS for a playoff team; 35 pts for C or 2B

add 70 pts if the player is NEW to a playoff team AND if the team did NOT make the playoffs the previous year; this is the sportswriters "hey, the new guy musta been the reason they won!" effect.

subtract 20 pts if the team made the playoffs the year before

subtract 80 pts if your name is Albert Belle

bake at 350 deg for 1 hr

But in researching the Rookie of the Year award, they will run across his name and probably conclude that he was the biggest difference maker in the Rays transformation from losers to winners. I could see the writers developing an infatuation that lasts just long enough to give him the MVP award.

Naw. Heck, right now I don't even think he's running away with ROY anymore. If the Yankees pull closer, and Joba is a stud down the stretch, he'll steal some votes. This all assumes he only misses a start or two.

I think Hamilton has to completely collapse to not win the MVP

Can someone apply number 39s formula to the guys that have been mentioned in this thread? I have work to do.

Naw. Heck, right now I don't even think he's running away with ROY anymore. If the Yankees pull closer, and Joba is a stud down the stretch, he'll steal some votes. This all assumes he only misses a start or two anymore.

This is funny because it indicates that, somehow, Joba would be a ridiculous ROY pick.

Another thing to look for is players on good teams who are currently not out in front, who are playing below their expected levels.

Morneau, of course, won the MVP not because he hit .352/.403/.598 after May, but also because he hit .244/.307/.465 before June.

Here's a shot in the dark: Robinson Cano.

On May 31st he had a .597 OPS. Since then he's put up .783. What if he can take it to another level, hit some clutch walk-off bombs, and the Yankees win the division? What kind of odds can I get from Vegas on this one? :)

Heck, right now I don't even think he's running away with ROY anymore.

Honestly, I could see a scenario where Joba wins ROY and Longoria wins MVP. All it would take is a few columns with headlines like "Longoria leads Rays transformation" or "A Little Piece of Evan: How Longoria took the 'Devil' out of the Rays and put Tampa Bay in the playoffs" and the guy is solid gold as far as MVP voters are concerned, no matter what Joba does from here on out.

Can someone apply number 39s formula to the guys that have been mentioned in this thread? I have work to do.

I don't. Back in a bit.

Here's a shot in the dark: Robinson Cano.

Well, the title does say "oddball MVP choices."

#43: I don't see any indication of that in the post you quoted. ("Steal" seems pretty colloquial, and not a value judgment.) Though I'm sure its author could speak to this better than I.

Robinson Cano...What kind of odds can I get from Vegas on this one? :)

Probably about the same odds you could've gotten in March on Cliff Lee winning the Cy Young, I'd think.

Alex Rodriguez. Evan Longoria. Kevin Youkilis. Carlos Quentin. Joe Mauer. Justin Morneau.

If you limited yourself to playoff contenders for whatever reason, how many people would really vote for Francisco Rodriguez over one of those guys?

I think the answer might be, "plenty."

The only one of those players that is acknowledged to be really elite is ARod, who could win every year and because of the boredom of writers will only be a strong candidate in years that he statistically dominates. The missed time hurts him badly.

Quentin, Longoria and Youkilis are all new to this debate. I might not recognize the first two if I stood next to them on a bus. The hype might suprisingly settle on one of them but until then I think they all have uphill climbs to be considered the heart and soul of their teams.

Mauer and Morneau ... same team doesn't help. Mauer has weak counting numbers. Morneau isn't really hitting that well.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like some of the dumber selections occur in years when there isn't a really compelling candidate and the votes are all spread out. If (for example) Giambi, ARod, Alomar and Boone all have similarly strong cases (or Morneau/Jeter/Mauer/Ortiz/Dye), the writers sort of decide "well, obviously logic isn't going to help me settle this debate."

This is funny because it indicates that, somehow, Joba would be a ridiculous ROY pick.

He would be to writers. First, most will think it's ridiculous that he pitched in the playoffs and is still eligible. Second, most will think he should be the 8th inning guy. Third, again, he's on the Yankees and we all know that the leadership of Pettitte and Rivera, not to mention the awesome game-calling of Pudge are what's getting him through.

Tom: Do you think it makes sense for recent selections to drop the "SS/C on contending team" bonus? It doesn't seem to happen anymore (See: Mauer, Jeter.)

Morneau isn't really hitting that well.

He's hitting better than he did the year that he won the MVP.

He would be to writers. First, most will think it's ridiculous that he pitched in the playoffs and is still eligible. Second, most will think he should be the 8th inning guy. Third, again, he's on the Yankees and we all know that the leadership of Pettitte and Rivera, not to mention the awesome game-calling of Pudge are what's getting him through.

But in the scenario outlined...he would win the ROY, which the writers would have voted on, which means it would not have been ridiculous to the writers in that scenario, which means it must be ridiculous on the basis of merit, which means it is a statement that has no basis in fact.

#43: I don't see any indication of that in the post you quoted. ("Steal" seems pretty colloquial, and not a value judgment.) Though I'm sure its author could speak to this better than I.

If this is the case, my apologies, the use of the word "steal" seems to indicate to me that receipt of the award would be undeserving.

In fact, Morneau's hitting about as well as anyone who's not A-Rod or Milton Bradley, and they've missed more games. Based on pure hitting value, Morneau's not a terrible choice. Once you factor in positional value and defense, he certianly doesn't stand out, but he'd be a better choice this year than 2006.

You're left with Mauer and Morneau, except they'll kill each other, too, won't they?

They didn't kill each other in 2006, and Mauer isn't having as good of a year as he did then. I don't think anybody in the mainstream media thinks of Mauer a serious MVP candidate.

But in the scenario outlined...he would win the ROY, which the writers would have voted on, which means it would not have been ridiculous to the writers in that scenario, which means it must be ridiculous on the basis of merit, which means it is a statement that has no basis in fact.

I said he had to be a stud down the stretch, too (and the Yankees have to stay alive).

He'll get votes, but to win, he'll have to steal it.

Didn't realize 52 and 40 were the same guy. Anyway, Jimmy P, I guess what I'm wondering is...do you or do you not believe that Joba Chamberlain is a legitimate merit based ROY candidate?

Didn't realize 52 and 40 were the same guy. Anyway, Jimmy P, I guess what I'm wondering is...do you or do you not believe that Joba Chamberlain is a legitimate merit based ROY candidate?

Oh yeah. I think right now it's him and Longoria. Ziegler maybe if he can keep scoreless innings going, but those other two have a BIG lead. The thing is, I think the perception by the media is that he's not worthy. Kind of like how Pedro wasn't MVP material because he's a pitcher, I think because Joba was in the playoffs he won't be considered well either.

Count me among those calling Hamilton.

I really don't see how the MVP goes to anyone other than Hamilton unless he falls way off his pace.

Why, it's almost like people seem to care more about figuring out the future voting tastes of people they abhor rather than arguing who they think should win on the merits!

For the record, I haven't seen *any* Angel fan arguing for K-Rod. I think Mauer is a good pick, and would have been an even better pick back when Morneau won.

By merit Sizemore would be a good pick, but voters won't even give him a thought.

Why, it's almost like people seem to care more about figuring out the future voting tastes of people they abhor rather than arguing who they think should win on the merits!

Figuring out the voting merits of some goofy people is much more fun than an MVP debate here. Here's the typical MVP debate on BTF:

"Guy A should be MVP"
"Guy B is leading the league in VORP"
"Oh, well he should get it, then"

Wow.

Shock, the position effect does vary; from the 50s thru early 80s, when C/2B/SS could not hit, it was bigger, but when we got the big boyz in the 80s and then Holy Trio in the late 90s the voters decided playing SS didn't matter since a few of them could really smash the ball. Ergo, I think Ripken and Yount cost Alan Trammell an MVP award in 1987.

Here are the numbers Tom's algorithm spits out for the players discussed. I am lowering the "100 runs/100 RBI" thing to 70 since we're roughly 70% through the season, and I dropped the "SS/C on a contending team" bonus because that doesn't seem to have any effect in recent years. Let me know if I missed anyone.



Basically same as I said in my first comment: Quentin/Morneau the most likely candidates depending on who wins that division. Hamilton in there as well if SportsWriters want to go with the story vote like they did with Rollins last year. Youk and ARod as "dark horses."

I'll say Cano or Jeter. ;-)

Who should be MVP? Halladay and Lee are a dead heat in pitching VORP. Sizemore is the leader for position players, and considering his defense is probably a good choice. Kinsler is a 2B and not far behind but IIRC his defense sucks. Bradley leads in batting wins by quite a bit.

I'd probably vote for Halladay.

Figuring out the voting merits of some goofy people is much more fun than an MVP debate here.

It's the same reason it's fun to guess who's going to win an Oscar. You get to drag in all sorts of theories like "He played a handicapped person, so he's sure to win Best Oscar" and "The documentary about Nazis or children always wins" and so on.

I'd give Longoria a shot if he finishes well and the Rays win that division. He has an outside shot at .290/35/110, and he's the most obvious choice on the feel good team of tyhe season to this point.

"Guy A should be MVP"
"Guy B is leading the league in VORP"
"Oh, well he should get it, then"

Wow.

Pretty much.

But then you get into a discussion like last year's.

"Chase Utley is leading the league in VORP so he should get it."
"Yeah, but he missed a month with an injury and they had to play Tadahito Iguchi instead."
"So what? VORP is a counting stat."
"But you have to consider that in effect, that month was played by a replacement level player, in theory."
"Wait, that month was actually played by Tadahito Iguchi, who was actually pretty good."
"So what? Utley doesn't get credit for what Iguchi did."
"Oh yeah."
"So because the replacement level 2B is worse than the replacement level 1B, does that mean Albert Pujols would get penalized less when he misses a game?"
"Well, now we're really talking about how much to reward playing in a high-variance era, position-specifically."
"Exactly. Someone who stands out that much at his position is probably not as valuable as he seems anyway, because it means that the overall quality of second basemen must be at a low level right now, or else there wouldn't be such outliers. Let alone how his injury should be considered...why should he benefit from a historically low replacement value when he's healthy?"
"But then again, perhaps the fact that Iguchi was playing so well made it less urgent for Utley to come back from his injury, thus artificially deflating his counting stats, so he gets some third-order alternate universe points from that."
"But why should he benefit from a situation in which he came back from injury later, and thus healthier, than he would normally have? That artificially inflates his rate stats compared to someone who played hurt."
"Um...well, we can all agree that Jimmy Rollins doesn't deserve it, right?"
"LOL YEAH D00D"

TomH -

In other words, you're saying that, if the Rangers sneak in to the playoffs as the wild card, Hamilton may win the MVP unanimously? That's 210 points worth of shock-n-awe that rest on 5 games in the standings...

Not that I expect it to happen, mind you, but...man, that would make a fun two months around here. Last night x10, at least...

I don't think there's enough shock-n-awe in the world to get the Rangers past their own pitching woes but they have been at least a fringe contender and if they stay about .500 Hamilton has a great shot. Kind of funny because Bradley has been a little bitter offensive player (though with no defensive value and serious playing time issues) and Kinsler may have actually had more value to the Rangers.

I don't think there's enough shock-n-awe in the world to get the Rangers past their own pitching woes but they have been at least a fringe contender and if they stay about .500 Hamilton has a great shot. Kind of funny because Bradley has been a little bitter offensive player (though with no defensive value and serious playing time issues) and Kinsler may have actually had more value to the Rangers.

A guy who plays a decent centerfield and puts up a .920 OPS, even in Arlington, is a reasonable MVP choice most years, and especially in a year like this one where there aren't any overwhelming candidates in his league. Milton Bradley's been the best hitter by far, but he's a DH and he's missed 20 games. ARod's been pretty clearly the second best hitter, but he's missed 20 games, and he's not really much of a 3B defensively anymore. After those two, if you focus on the guy's who have played almost every day, you have a pack of 10 or so guys who all have slight advantages and disadvantages. The guys who are good at their positions defensively aren't playing key positions. They guys at key positions are either not very good at them, or have poor OBP/SLG ratios or are just trailing the pack in OPS a bit. Given the situation this year, I wouldn't ignore Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay for being the most deserving, either. Kinsler was looking like a clear cut most deserving player a few weeks ago, but he's hit a bit of a slump.

Who should be MVP? Halladay and Lee are a dead heat in pitching VORP. Sizemore is the leader for position players, and considering his defense is probably a good choice. Kinsler is a 2B and not far behind but IIRC his defense sucks. Bradley leads in batting wins by quite a bit.


Sizemore, Mauer and Hamilton look like a good top three with A-Rod and Kinsler not far behind. I don't think any of those five would be terrible choices. Picking anybody else -- considering defense and positional adjustments -- would probably be stretching things a bit.

As has been mentioned, there sure seems to be a bunch of those 130-145 OPS+ corner OF/1B/DHs who -- if their team happens to be in the playoff hunt -- may be a well-timed hot streak away from an MVP.

Keep in mind that Manny had 165 RBI's in 147 games(!) for a playoff team and finished in a distant tie for 3rd.

RBI's mean alot to the voters, but they aren't everything.

I'm sure it's been said before on this long thread, but if Hamilton leads the league in RBI, I think he'll be voted MVP.

Who says the Home Run Derby doesn't count?

I think Hamilton has to be the choice, with A-Rod 2nd, Sizemore 3rd, Kinsler 4th and Morneau 5th.

A guy who plays a decent centerfield and puts up a .920 OPS, even in Arlington, is a reasonable MVP choice most years

No. And Hamilton is a pretty poor defensive CF from what I can tell.

If Justin Morneau finishes in the top 5 for MVP I'm quitting life.

If Justin Morneau finishes in the top 5 for MVP I'm quitting life.

I call dibs on your ####. How can we arrange for it to be delivered?

Just pick it up yourself. You're in NJ, aren't you?

I really don't see the case for Hamilton over Sizemore in the "SABR MVP Race."

I can't see the case either. AFAIC, Sizemore is the runaway winner right now. Maybe Marlon Byrd can change that between now and October, but he has a lot of catching up to do.

I am just impressed by the formatting in #77. Well done.

I really don't see the case for Hamilton over Sizemore in the "SABR MVP Race."

I looked up the Win Shares on Bill James Online, and in that catach-all stat, Kinsler leads the pack at 23, Hamilton has 22, Mauer has 20, and no one else is above 20. Wait - actually, further down the WARP list is Morneau, who has 24 win shares. Basically, the AL race is tight enough that the different stats, with their different biases, don't pick a consensus winner. I'm guessing this is because Texas has won more games than their run components say they should have one, and that filters down to individual players in win shares, but not in WARP. Cleveland is in the opposite boat - Cleveland actually has a positive run differential while Texas has a negative one, but Texas is 10 games ahead of Cleveland. Bradley and ARod do worse in win shares because win shares gives a lot of credit just for showing up, even if you're a slightly below replacement level player. Missing 20 games almost eliminates your chance of leading the league in win shares. Anyways, there's your objective case for Hamilton over Sizemore, and I guess it just comes down to whether you buy into the assumption Bill James made about basing everything around team wins instead of team runs.

Just thought of something...who are the NL frontrunners (as far as who will win not who deserves to win)?

I looked up the Win Shares on Bill James Online, and in that catach-all stat, Kinsler leads the pack at 23, Hamilton has 22, Mauer has 20, and no one else is above 20.

Win Shares is a junk stat. Ignore it.

It's going to be Justin Morneau and he's going to become possibly the worst 2 time MVP ever (I haven't checked).

I'd be interested in what his pennant probability added was the year that he won it comapred to the other candidates. But Coolstandings doesn't list the playoff odds prior to this year.

I kind of want K-Rod to get 60 saves and win the MVP, just because it is more fun to ##### and moan about really bad selections than sort of blah ones. Sure, in an ideal world it would go to Sizemore, who seems to be pretty clearly the most valuable player in the AL this year, but if it is going to go to someone undeserving anyway I would rather get some fun out of it.

For whatever reason, the Rangers do really well in MVP voting. Alex Rodriguez was the last AL MVP to come from a non-playoff team when he won it in 2003 for a Texas team that finished 71-91. Ivan Rodriguez won it in 1999, and Juan Gonzalez won two of them, in 1998 and 1996; the Rangers won the division all three of those years, but there are strong argument against all three of those awards.

So I'm calling it for Josh Hamilton.

For whatever reason, the Rangers do really well in MVP voting.

With Gonzalez, it's because people don't realize what a hitter's park that is, and then on top of that, the Rangers tend to have more good hitters than good pitchers, so you can get a guy like Gonzalez who's a good, not great player, who hits behind three high OBP, low SLG guys and drives in an enormous number of runs, without being all that great. In 1998, he hit behind Goodwin (who had a .378 OBP that year), McLemore and Greer. He hit a little better with men on base than the bases empty, but only a little bit. He still drove in 157 runs. In 1996, it was Daryl Hamilton, Pudge Rodriguez, and some combination of Greer and Will Clark ahead of him. He had a really good year and drove in over 140 runs despite hitting better with the bases empty than with men on base and missing 28 games. Great all around offenses in hitters parks make the best hitters in the lineup look even better.