Fun race for the Cy Young with a little something for everyone (power guy, wins guy, ERA guy). If those three hold up all season there's the potential to do some science on the BBWAA.

LaRussa needs someone else to put Bonds on the team for him. He already catches enough #### for being a steroid enabler.

Wang's gonna put himself in the discussion by the end of the season. He's got a 128 ERA+ right now, and he's up to striking out a batter once every two innings! Besides that, he looks absolutely filthy right now.

The way he is pitching right now, it would not shock me to see Wang emerge as a serious candidate soon. He's 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA. If he keeps winning games and gets his ERA down another 1/2 run, the voters are going to love him too.

Cowboy:

Filthy Wang is going to put himself in. Got it.

Sorry, I'm feeling pretty immature today.

"Filthy Wang is going to put himself in. Got it."

I was worried I was too subtle with the put himself in it comment. The filthy part was completely unintentional. Well played.

This article is long and has no central theme.

Look, I enjoy the analytical part of the game as much as anyone. But some folks fascination with Dunn is a curious thing.

EQA for 2004, 2005, and 2006 for three different left fielders in the NL Central. If you can pick out Dunn's line without looking you are a hard-core Reds fan or Rainman.

.289, .275, .295
.316, .302, .282
.294, .325, .310

And this gets the lad branded one of the "best hitters in the game"?

I know what Jonah is doing. He is looking at Dunn right NOW and extrapolating over a season. But as we know, power hitters are streaky. Dunn was going like a house afire in 2006 and then the calendar had to change to August. Not pretty from that point forward as Adam slugged less than .400. Dunn also finished 2005 in mediocre fashion hitting all of 8 homers over the final two months.

So yes, the "clutch" thing is overdone. But so is the "Dunn is great" thing. Dunn is a good player with gigantic holes in his game. The every day Reds fan recognizes that but communicates WHY poorly.

I guess what I am saying is that while there ARE players who are treated unfairly by their fans and local media and that alternative evaluation tools can help explain WHY Adam Dunn is a poor example to help spread the word. Just too much baggage.

I honestly believe that if the Dunn advocates watched the guy play ever day and saw the jogging after balls in the outfield and the terrible swings at the plate late in the game they could at least better appreciate why he drives his fanbase absolutely insane. After the umpteenth strikeout where he just sort of loops the ball through the strike zone causes ME to grit my teeth and I know better. Nor am I a fan of the Reds.

The Angels should make a run at Dunn, or whatever other power bat they can find, then send Hillenbrand packing.

I like Adam Dunn. I had him on my fantasy team a couple years ago and even kept him last year over a bunch of really good guys, including Derek Lee (before all the injuries).

Let's say a guy was about to hit the market who hit 310/362/525 last year in the AL. Let's also say that the price the Angels would have to pay for this guy in terms of players/prospects and additional salary is a big fat nothing. Let's also assume that unlike Adam Dunn, the guy isn't a total butcher in the field, meaning that acquiring him would allow the Angels to DH Vlad more frequently down the stretch, keeping him rested for potential post-season play. I'd imagine that this would be the type of player that writers would say the Angels should go out and get.

Do people not realize that Juan Rivera will probably be back in a month or so? And that he'll be free? And that he's been pretty good the last year and a half? And that he can also play at least average defense?

Personally, I'd rather have a month of Hillenbrand, followed by Rivera the rest of the way, and hold on to the starting pitcher, major league infielder, and top prospect that the Reds are asking for over a few months of Adam Dunn, who won't come cheap, and will likely be a free agent at the end of the year if he gets dealt during the season.

"Do people not realize that Juan Rivera will probably be back in a month or so?"

How did he hurt himself? Anything that could potentially effect his production long term?

Shredder and I already exchanged emails on this, but I'll post here:

First off, there's no way the Reds will get that much. Krivsky will posture for a while, then he'll end up taking 40 cents on the dollar like he did for Kearns and Lopez.

Second, I'm aware of Rivera. But I see two issues there. One, I'd say it's pretty presumptuous to assume that Rivera is going to immediately go back to killing the ball after missing 2/3 of the season, and that instead of returning to career norms, he's going to instantly become the same guy he was in his career year of 2006.

And then there's this: How much can we rely on the roster of the roster to stay healthy and productive? Kotchman's had a history of weird ailments/absences--should we expect him to stay in the lineup every day, and hitting .333? Willits has looked great so far--but can he stay a .400 OBP guy and not wear down in his 1st big league season?

I don't think Rivera's going to be the offensive boost some might expect. But even if he is, I can still see the Angels benefiting from adding another hitter. Especially given how hopeless Krivsky is at making deals.

As for Dunn being a good but not great player, I buy that. Plug him at a position where a team has a major hole, though (I actually think he'd help more as the Twins DH than anywhere else) and he becomes a big upgrade.

Jonah:

I certainly agree that Dunn could help just about any team with such an issue. And let me stress that a MOTIVATED Dunn might be a GIGANTIC upgrade. For all his personal posturing about trying to do the whole "slacker who doesn't really care but still succeeds" schtick I think Adam is getting tired of all the cr*p tossed in his direction. Put him in a pennant race with a NEW team and I could see a 20 homer/50 rbi stretch over two months.

I too think it may be a bit much to expect Rivera to come back from a broken leg and all this time off and match his 2006 performance -- especially as 2006 was a career year for him.

But he doesn't have to do that; if he can match his career marks (a 115 OPS+) for a couple of months, and provide his usual solid defense and excellent arm (thus giving Vlad and potentially Anderson breaks afield), that's quite a plus for the team.

I think Kotchman will, by and large, maintain good production; any decrease he may have (and I readily admit his average will probably drop) will likely be off-set by an increase from Howie Kendrick, who is only now appearing to get back into the swing of things after his long sojourn on the DL. Willits is an unlikely bet to keep an OBP above .400, it is true; but at this point I think a .370 is within reach, and that's no harm.

Hey, if a reasonable deal could be made for Dunn, I'm all for it. But I don't want to break the prospect bank.

Jonah,

What about Teixeira? Does Dunn get the nod because of Teixeira's injury? Do more teams have a hole in OF/DH than 1B? Or is it the contract situation? Dunn can become a free agent if traded, so interested teams can offer less knowing that this is pretty much a half-season rental (Teixeira is under contract until the end of '08). Or, are you saying that Dunn will provide more in a trade than Teixeira if you compare perceived value versus actual value?

Oops. Double post.

I pretty much agree with BHW. Dunn would help the Angels quite a bit. But so will the return of Juan Rivera (albeit in different ways), who they are already paying, and won't cost them an extra dime.

My prediction: Dunn will cost, roughly, a non-premium RP and 2 B-level prospects. The Angels and many other teams could make that deal, retain him 'til the end of the year, offer him arb, let him walk, then recoup draft picks as compensation.

On Teixeira, I just have more confidence in Jon Daniels getting some premium talent back for him than I do Krivsky on Dunn--for multiple reasons. If I'm the Angels, I agree, why unload Wood, Adenhart, or any key building blocks. The days of Sizemore/Phillips/Lee for Colon are gone, I expect a buyer's market here.

Interesting that everyone focuses on Dunn. Seems to me Jonah is wider of the mark on Millwood.

It's quite rare, maybe unheard of, for a team to trade mid-season for someone with 3+ years on his contract. And Millwood's remaining 3/$36 (or is it backloaded) is not all that great a bargain even in this market. At this point, his track record the last several seasons is a notch below Suppan's (who's the same age) and a smidgen better than Lilly's (who's a year younger) and they're both signed for a little less and aren't currently struggling (well, Suppan's not so great right now).

Now if the Rangers want to cover some money or take nothing in return, they might be able to find a taker among the wealthy contending teams -- Mets, Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers. But if Millwood does bounce back and re-establish his form, I bet the Rangers would do much better in the offseason trade market than a deadline deal.

True, I was thinking of harping on the Dunn comment too, but Jonah did say among the best "hitters" not "players" and Dunn's 913 OPS over the last 3 years almost certainly qualifies as one of the best hitters over the last 3 years. I can't find any quick way to compile 3-year stats but a 913 OPS would be 27th this season and 24th last season. 11-12 of the guys who did it last year aren't doing it this year and/or are hurt. The number of hitters with a better OPS than Dunn over the last three years is probably less than 10. And unlike a few of the guys who probably are ahead of him over the last 3 years, Dunn appeared in 481 games.

It is fair to note that Dunn had a lousy year last year and that probably lowers his projection for this year below 913 -- a quick Marcel says 897. And I suppose Cincy is a hitters park. Still, that qualifies as one of the best hitters in the game.

And sure, it's fair to say that Soriano and Bay are also among the best hitters in the game (I assume those are the other NLC LFs). And of course he's not the hitter that AROD or Manny or Ortiz or Vlad are. But they're not available. He is about the same as Teixeira (and the same age) and Teixeira has a good defensive rep and is less reliant on "old man skills" and as durable until this year so I'd take Teixeira over Dunn overall.

Walt:

Bay and Carlos Lee.

True, I was thinking of harping on the Dunn comment too, but Jonah did say among the best "hitters" not "players" and Dunn's 913 OPS over the last 3 years almost certainly qualifies as one of the best hitters over the last 3 years. I can't find any quick way to compile 3-year stats but a 913 OPS would be 27th this season and 24th last season. 11-12 of the guys who did it last year aren't doing it this year and/or are hurt. The number of hitters with a better OPS than Dunn over the last three years is probably less than 10.

From 2004 to 2006, Dunn ranks 19th among all hitters (min. 1500 PAs) in OPS and 20th in OPS+.

Walt, Millwood was me going out there with a bit of a contrarian opinion.

That said, while I didn't go into great detail there, I did cite last year's Abreu deal as a precedent--i.e. the team acquiring him would give up very little in talent and/or have some salary defrayed. Suppan's an interesting comp, but I don't think it's an apt one. While their total contributions might be the same, Millwood was the ERA leader 2 years ago, and a total freaking disaster this year with the Rangers. So both Millwood's upside and downside would appear to be a lot more dramatic than Suppan's. My hunch tells me that Millwood would closer to the plus-plus pitcher he was in '05 (and at other times in his career) than the Texas version he is now, if given a reprieve in a better environment.

Welll.... I think the question on Dunn is: Did Krivsky get 40 cents on the dollar (less, actually) because that's just what the market for Lopez/Kearns was -- or -- did he get 40 cents on the dollar because he's just not very good at this GM thing?

I personally feel that latter -- which then leads me to the old axiom about blind squirrels and buts... errr... nuts (Giles for Rincon, Giles for Bay).

Since I spent the morning in another trade thread talking about what Zambrano should fetch, I'm not about to lowball Dunn (need neutral -- I'd put the value of Zambrano over that of Dunn).

I think Krivksy SHOULD be able to get at least 1, probably 2 premium prospects plus another few pieces of varying value for Dunn. I know that I would personally pay that much (especially if I get dispensation to discuss the possibility of an extension with Dunn before the trade).

I think the question is whether anyone that NEEDS an Adam Dunn would pay that much. The Twins could sorely use a Dunn type bat, but they don't seem the type willing to pay for him. I've heard Garza-Dunn floated, but that might well just be idle BTF chatter.

Wow. Being an NL guy, I just didn't realize how absolutely putrid Millwood has been this year. I mean - Kip Wells has the same ERA+ (60)... and Wells doesn't have 3/36 left, either (Wells is also 2 years younger).

I wouldn't give you my top minor league batboy for Millwood... unless he can turn in a couple-3-4 good starts in a row.

Why is Millwood so awful this year? His gopher balls are WAY up, his BBs are up by a decent clip, too--- but his K rate seems right about career norm. Has it just been bad luck?

I proposed Dunn to the Mets for Carp and Pelfrey in the Mets chatter. How does the board feel about that?

I agree with Shredder. And when you come right down to it, is Adam Dunn REALLY worth that much more than Russ Branyan? Or even Jack Cust right now?

Recognizing that the Angels could use a LH power bat, Branyan's offensive line vs RHPs for the past three years is .253/.363/.531 in 510 ABs. Given that Bud Black seems to have little use for Branyan - and the fact Branyan can play 3B as well as a corner OF spot - I'd make this call before I went after Dunn. The bang for the buck is likely to be higher.

While this definitely isn't as bad as the Phillies running Scott Rolen out of town - honestly, how DARE he not be as good as Mike Schmidt - it's still infuriating to hear the anti-Dunn camp amongst Reds fans. There are just so many other aspects of that team that are worse than any part of Dunn's game. The last thing I want is to see him turn into a guy who only K's 120 times a year, but at the expense of 10 HR and 50 walks.

I guess it doesn't really matter for much longer, but if Krivsky ships Dunn to the White Sox for Boone Logan and Mike MacDougal, I'm gonna lose it.

(I only mentioned that specific deal as a pre-emptive jinx against it.)

The Angels and many other teams could make that deal, retain him 'til the end of the year, offer him arb, let him walk, then recoup draft picks as compensation.

He's no longer arb-eligible. '07 is his sixth year. If traded he's a free agent next year (which would get you some picks).

He's no longer arb-eligible.

You can offer arb to potential free agents - they just can decline it.

You HAVE to offer arb to qualify for the draft picks, otherwise it's assumed you have no interest in the player, so you don't need to recieve compensation for him. I'm assuming that's the arb he's referring to.

Of course a lot of those guys on the OPS list have a lot fewer PA than Dunn. OK, this will format suckily:



100+ PA is worth a lot. But fair enough, I overstated Dunn but one of the 20 top hitters in MLB is still "one of the best" in my book.