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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, December 10, 2007
Do the collapse. Perhaps now the vultures? I certainly hope not.
The company line is that Reyes’ collapse was merely a “slump at the wrong time,” says Minaya. The shortstop says he was tired after playing 160 of 162 games, and finishing second in the NL in plate appearances. But Reyes’ exhaustion bled into a bizarre moodiness. The 24-year-old shortstop gave away enough at-bats down the stretch that he, too, was booed by Met fans. The normally effervescent Reyes was so out of sync he ended up in a fistfight with the Marlins’ Miguel Olivo on the second-to-last day of the season.
One major league executive believes Reyes is paying the price for his headfirst slides as his stolen-base total keeps skyrocketing. After 234 swipes in five seasons, including a major league-best 78 last year, “You have to wonder if all that punishment got to him,” the executive said. A strained relationship with Willie Randolph didn’t help, either. Reyes started distancing himself soon after the manager removed him from a game in July for failing to run out a ground ball. Now, says Minaya, “It’s Willie’s job” to rehabilitate Reyes’ spirit.
The GM didn’t have to say or else. The stakes are already high. Randolph was nearly dismissed after the collapse, and everyone will be waiting for ownership’s response if the Mets start slowly in 2008. With September’s echo lingering, it likely won’t be pretty.
Repoz
Posted: December 10, 2007 at 05:23 PM | 70 comment(s)
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Should've been Willie's job to notice his SS was running down, & give him some days off.
You know what the girls say: "once you go chess, you never regress."
I read the point of the article as saying that Reyes was just such ML talent that should be traded for an ace.
Didn't Olivo start this?
Indeed. And I can think of one such ace, currently on a team without a starting shortstop. Not to poke the buzzing hornet's nest that is any Mets-related thread, of course.
Of course, the Mets should not trade Reyes. They would be foolish to trade Reyes. Is Omar's offseason mission evolving into: 'Do not trade Reyes'? Is the bar being lowered to the point where simply making it to April without having exchanged Reyes + F-Mart for Haren means Omar has done a good job?
O. Perez
Maine
El Duque
Pelfrey
Humber
Mulvey
Heilman(?)
I'd go to war with that rotation in the mediocre NL East...
Then he says that Omar is trying to spin his way around the collapse. Not really. I place some of the blame on Omar for not putting together a better bullpen (yes I know they were heavily worked but they also weren't good enough IMO) but I don't think he's trying to spin his way around it. He's been forthright in addressing the causes but its really a confluence of a number of factors including bad luck.
Anyway, yeah this article has weird condescending tone, maybe sanctimonious is the right word.
And it's a good thing it's mediocre, because you're unlikely to get 190+ innings out of more than one of those guys.
Oh! No he din't! *waves hand*
Except for Santana reportedly making the Mets his first choice. He does have a no trade clause.
"Reported" by Metsblog. I'll take that with the appropriate does of skepticism. Which is to say, my eyes are rolling to the roof of my head almost out of control . . . .
They might get him. They might not. But until there's at least SOME confirmation of that report from another source (preferably one in Minneapolis and with a history of getting stuff right when it comes to the Twins), I'll remain dubious. And until I see what the package of "five-six high-ceiling prospects" looks like, I'll remain doubtful it's a deal I'd like anyway.
Also, while we're at it- why are the Yankees, or anyone else, upset about driving up the price of said player? If they get him, they were'nt being used to drive up the price. If they don't, they made a competitor pay a lot more for that same player. How is this ever a bad thing?
Because after the Twins have shopped around armed with the Yankees bid they will come back looking for more to blow away whatever packages they could extract from the other teams.
Oof. The prospect of this makes me extremely nervous. I'd expect the equivalent of three full seasons from the four pitchers topping your list--that leaves 65 or so starts to Pelfrey and Humber and whomever else, no one of which has demonstrated anything like competence starting in the majors.
He's got approximately six million reasons not to do that. By keeping quiet and leaving the Twins some leverage, he makes it more likely they can strike a reasonable deal, thus giving Santana the chance to negotiate a contract extension that includes a new deal that includes $5-6M more for 2008. If the Twins can't get a decent deal because Santana says it's the Mets or nobody, they just keep him and pay him his $13M for this season and take their two draft picks when he leaves.
So even if you think Santana has no interest at all in not screwing the Twins, he has a significant self-interest in allowing them to make a deal they can live with rather than just keep him for the upcoming season.
I agree in that I am not sure sanctimonious is the right word, but I was actually referring to everything about Klapisch. He, like Tom Verducci, rubs me the wrong way. Almost like whenever he is saying something, he has to make it so that he is the only one saying it or almost he was the creator of this information.
He is falling into love with himself by asserting his Omnipresence, a major flaw I find in most media today.
Month---BA--OBP--SLG
April--.356-.442-.596
May----.268-.349-.348
June---.330-.405-.425
July---.265-.317-.453
August-.272-.341-.392
Sept.--.205-.279-.333
His seasonal rates were .280/.354/.421, in 2006 his rates were .300/.354/.487
But do you really think that even without leverage, that the Twins can't get better than a pair of draft picks from the Mets? After all, the Mets would be trading for Santana for 2008, a valuable season to have him, and the exclusive right to sign him.
With no leverage? I doubt it. After all, they draft and develop pretty darned well. And Santana has no reason to take that chance. Certainly, if I were Smith, I'd make it clear to Santana that the moment I lose the leverage of the perception of multiple potential trading partners is the moment I pull him back and just keep him for 2008.
Reyes was 18th in the NL in VORP among position players in 2007 and 7th in 2006 and plays excellent defense. So no.
Aha, but perhaps 2006 will be his career year!
That's possible. 1985 was Dwight Gooden's, and he was younger that season than Reyes was in 2006. But it is atypical that a player has his career year at age 23, so we should certainly not expect that to be the case, and the Mets shouldn't base their decisions re. Reyes on the less-likely assumption about his career path.
This is, of course, if Santana believes he wouldn't get more than $5-6 million added to the life of his deal in a bidding war to end all bidding wars following the 2008 season. I, for one, think he would. but I can see not taking the chance.
If he's actually set on becoming a Met, that's one thing. But there's a ways from where even the rumor had it, and that.
Well then, someone has to show him the plans for the new CitiField fanwalk.
You are assuming that it would be a good deal, Howard. I will remain agnostic until I know which, and how many, prospects are involved. If I don't like the deal, I might just want to tell him that the whole Citifield thing is a big fraud and they'll be playing in Shea for the next 50 years.
You are assuming I approve of the new Citifield fanwalk, Sam.
If by "give up the farm" you mean Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey, Deolis Geurra, and Kevin Mulvey, the answer is no. It would leave the Mets far too dependent on free agency to add talent after 2008, because they would have (almost literally) NO tradeable assets and NO useful young talent coming up from the farm system. IMHO, you just cannot leave yourself that dependent on one means of acquiring needed talent, especially when
a) the team is going to have a substantial number of holes to fill beginning in 2009, and
b) free agency is becoming a progressively more expensive and less reliable source of talent.
The Mets would be putting themselves -- for the sake of short-term gain -- on a vicious cycle to long-term disaster. They'd have to sign free agents (they'd have no other choice) to fill holes. That would cost them the high draft picks they would desperately need to replenish the farm system. That would render them ever-more dependent on free agents. That way lies a barren system, and that way lies a team I want no part of rooting for.
Let's stay off that treadmill to nowhere.
If you knew the Mets were planning on tripling their international signings budget, would that change your feelings on this? For the record, this is a made-up supposition.
No, it wouldn't change my feelings. I don't think those signings are reliable enough to replace a solid and consistent use of the draft; they should be used to supplement what the team does in the draft. High draft picks have to be the core of how the team brings fresh prospects into the organization. Constant free agent signings are inconsistent with that.
You can get away from that on occasion. You can use over-slot signings to take a third-round pick (when you've lost your first two picks) and get first-round talent, if you are lucky and smart. On occasion. You can use international signings to keep the occasional FA signing from killing your farm system's depth. Emphasis on occasional FA signing.
But a trade that eviscerates your farm system, and locks you into free agency for the foreseeable future? No thanks.
What if you had to give up 3 of Martinez, Gomez, Guerra, or Mulvey? As much as the Twins supposedly love Gomez, that deal is probably better than any other one they've been offered thus far.
If the Mets are now willing to go above slot -- as they should with as much money as they have and how crappy their system is -- they could build up the system again pretty quickly.
As an outsider, that seems like a worthwhile risk to take for a much greater chance at a world series. I probably don't think as much of Gomez as most of you guys do, though.
I would give the Twins any four players in the Mets' system, so long they include only ONE of Gomez OR Martinez, and not both. Having already traded Milledge, the Mets simply have to hold on to one of the remaining two, because they will have to replace Alou in 2009. If that's not good enough, I'd thank Smith for his time, and hope that Santana reaches free agency.
EDIT: And I'd pray they don't take Guerra, Mulvey, and Pelfrey as the three along with Martinez/Gomez. That would be the combination I'd hate to lose, because I think the Mets are likely to get one useful starter out of those three, and they might get two if they're lucky. And if the Twins were to take those three, the odds of getting a useful starter any time soon begin and end with Philip Humber. Ouch.
I haven't heard that the Twins are especially fond of Gomez. I personally would trade 3 of those prospects especially if the one I'd keep is Fernando but I don't think that's enough.
Does anybody else remember this? Earlier in the offseason there were reports the Twins were really high on Gomez and there were thoughts a Garza/Gomez deal could be possible.
I'm certain Fernando would have to go. And actually, my hypothetical should have been Gomez, Martinez, and one of Guerra or Mulvey. The Twins need position players a lot more than pitchers, especially when none of the pitchers look like elite prospects.
Kyle, that is less true than it was prior to the Delmon Young trade. I think the Twins are now in a position to accept a somewhat different deal. Which doesn't address the quality of the deal, of course.
If the deal would have to include both F-Mart and Gomez to make the deal good enough (or to make it fit the shape the Twins need), I just don't think the Mets can do it.
And I don't think you're saying otherwise, but the Twins still could use position players more than pitchers.
Like most of you guys, however, I'm hoping both New York teams can keep their prospects. It could be a fun winter with both New York teams and maybe Boston in a bidding war over the same FA. Hopefully Sabathia makes it to FA as well.
Well, how good is that Yankees' package, really, if the Twins really want position players? The Yankees have offered a package centered around a pitcher (Hughes) -- which we've just posited is what the Twins don't need. I think a Mets' deal with Gomez or Fernando Martinez (and then say Guerra and Mulvey, and I'd be willing to throw in somebody else not named Gomez or F-Mart, too) would beat a Yankees' package in which the BEST position player is . . . Melky Cabrera???
As for the Red Sox, yeah, they're offering Ellsbury, but from everything we've read, it's pretty much Ellsbury and almost NOTHING else of any real value. He's more major-league ready than Gomez or Martinez, but is he really better than a full-blown package of four players led by ONE (but not both) of those two?
I'm not at all sure the Mets' package wouldn't be pretty darned competitive, although it is certainly not one that has immediate pay-off. If that's important to the Twins, then the Mets lose.
I don't think so Sam - I think Joe Sheehan who made the point that the Twins are likely to have exactly 4 hitters who are likely to have an OPS over .775 - Young, Mauer, Morneau and Cudduyer. This is a team that is in desperate need of offensive talent, and the Mets aren't in a position to provide it without giving up Reyes (Which they won't). Milledge would probably have been the best bet in this regard, and I bet a Gomez trade (not that I think Bowden would have made it) for the Schneider/Church combo would have worked better. F-Mart is a very good prospect, but the Twins are going to want a bat who can help now, and the Ellsbury or Cabrera are significantly more likely. I think any winning package will be more bats-heavy than arms - which is why I think Seattle (with JOnes and Balentin) has a very good shot, as does LA.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6962
The Twins can use a top young pitcher to pair with Liriano almost as much as another top young hitter.
IMHO, if they really are going to trade Santana, to put an emphasis on a bat who helps today over greater amounts of talent down the road would be fairly foolish of them. Given the state of affairs in the division, a Santana-less Twins team has no chance of competing, and acquiring Melky Cabrera (or Jacoby Ellsbury) isn't going to make a damned bit of difference in that. Competing by 2010 might be realistic, so they should attempt to acquire the best package that helps them do that. Mind you, I'm not saying a Mets' deal would do that, but it ought to be the way the Twins are looking at it, and IMHO, the deals the Red Sox and Yankees are offering (at least) aren't all that good for the Twins' long-term interests.
The only issue with those teams is whether Santana wants to go to the west coast. The media has said he doesn't want to, so it's at least something to keep in mind.
If the M's would offer Jones I don't see any of thee east coast teams making a better offer for the Twins.
Sam makes a compelling argument but the process of filling holes without the farm system isn't really that daunting.
Look at the 2006 Mets, a team for whom most things went right. The Mets got big contributions from seemingly minor parts like Jose Valentin, Endy Chavez, Paul Lo Duca, Xavier Nady, Pedro Feliciano and Darren Oliver -- none of whom were on any hot prospect list.
Well, part of the answer is that you can't fill big holes on the team (as the 2009 Mets will have to in LF, 1B, and in the rotation) with spare parts. You want to fill them with long-term answers, or at least 2-3 year solutions (of the Delgado sort), that aren't the bench guys who ALSO end up being important to the team, of the type you describe. The process of filling holes IS that daunting if you have no talent to trade and nothing in the farm to turn to. I mean, they got Nady because they had Cameron to trade, and they got LoDuca because they had Gaby Hernandez to trade. You can't be as thin in tradeable assets as the Mets would be after a 5:1 Santana trade, and expect to fill holes effectively.
The other part is that you don't want to be the sort of team for whom "most things have to go right." You want to be a team that has a rock-solid line-up that can have plenty of things go wrong, and still comfortably make (or at least contend) for the post-season. The Mets won't be able to do that if they are plugging in Endy Chavez types not to fill in for a few weeks, but as the starting left-fielder for whole seasons at a time.
Silva seems likely to be a good pitcher for at least another two years. It isn't ideal but I think I might. The Mets have money and should spend it.
So this is how teams talk themselves into giving Eaton 23 million dollars...
I don't think you can land Silva for 40/4. But it seems the least damaging move Omar can do to the team. I'm on board.
I know you aren't arguing this but Eaton has never had the run of success that Silva has had in the last 4 years.
Didn't we already have this thread last off-season? How'd that go?
I think we did. Some Red Sox fan said that the Mets would be lucky to get 500 innings from Glavine, Duque, Perez, and Maine. The Mets starting pitching actually performed about as well as they could have reasonably hoped for other than Glavine. In that instance, the Met BTFers were right to ahve confidence in Maine and Perez.
It went great. Mets fans were right. Everybody else was wrong.
The projected rotation of Glavine, Pelfrey, Maine, Perez, El Duque, and Humber puts up an ERA of 4.34 over 892 IP.
Margo Adams FC psoted this:
Please, I feel like I've walked into a funhouse. I'm obviously a crazy Epstein fanboy, so would some other non-Mets fan kindly put the over/under on the total number of innings these people will actually pitch for the Mets next season, and on the rotation era if that's the rotation? 'Cause I see par here at maybe 500 IP and a 4.80 era.
Those six ended up posting a 4.12 ERA in 795.2 IP.
Unfortunately, though, I agree with billyshears that this Wilpon insistence on "image" can destroy the team. Lastings was certainly chased off the team by this ########, and one can see Reyes and Perez zeroed in on and then traded for Kevin McReynolds/Al Leiter type "nice guys". God, I wish they'd be forced to sell the team.
One more edit: am I evil to yell "don't get up! please be hurt!" at the TV when Dilfer went down Sunday? I felt bad after I said it, but yet still happy he was out of the game.
Why do you think Minaya makes that decision? He doesn't write the checks. Sticking to slot is a decision the owner makes. Minaya has made comments that suggest the Mets are going to stick to slot anymore but I don't think it is was ever up to him. The Wilpons are close with Selig and that's why they stuck to slot in the past.
pwn3d
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