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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, July 15, 2010
And go bury him in the ballyard before he stinks up the place!
The Mets need to forget everything they know about Jeff Francoeur. Forget that he’s making $5 million, that money is already spent. Forget that he was branded “The Natural” on the cover of Sports Illustrated in 2005. Forget that he is an affable guy who is loved by the local media. (The club already has Alex Cora fulfilling the “great guy, awful hitter” quota on the roster.)
Instead, they need to consider the data that matter most. Since 2005, Francoeur has a .308 OBP in almost 3,000 plate appearances. Among right fielders who qualify for the batting title this year, he has the lowest OBP and the second-lowest slugging percentage. Earlier this season, there was a glimmer of hope that he was finally learning the strike zone when he walked eight times in his first 12 games. But since then, he’s gone back to his hacking ways, swinging at everything this side of Montauk.
Francoeur is still running on the fumes of his former potential, but it’s time to realize that he is what he is: A 26-year-old plodding outfielder with a great arm who is capable of hitting some singles when a lefty is on the mound. Does that sound like a player who can help a team in the midst of a nip-and-tuck playoff race? The Mets’ margin of error for making the postseason is already small. Giving playing time to Francoeur only makes it smaller.
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To say he's a singles hitter against LHP is unfair considering his .484 career SLG% against them.
This isn't really hitting lefties "well." It's not clear it's enough to even carry the RH part of a platoon and I bet you could find dozens of guys in the minors who could do this. I don't know if he's still playing but even Matt Murton put up an 850 OPS vs. LHB. Reed Johnson is also at 850 for his career and he can still play some CF for you. League RHB vs LHP split 2010 is about 750 so Frenchy carries about a 120 OPS+ (I know, that's just an approx) for a corner OF. Pretty much any RHB who anybody ever thought might hit well enough to be a corner OF probably carries at least an 800 OPS against LHP.
To say he's a singles hitter against LHP is unfair considering his .484 career SLG% against them.
Fair enough but the ISO is just 182 compared to a league average RHB vs. LHP ISO of around 145 so it's not like he crushes them.
I don't mean to make too big a thing out of it -- sure, as an example, if they were the players you had around, a Fukudome/Francoeur platoon would be fine. And of course Francoeur is a player the Mets have around and they probably don't have anybody better for the bench job in the minors, so they might as well hold onto him. My point is he doesn't hit LHP well, he hits them just well enough to hang onto a job.
Frenchie (career OPS+ 92) is a very poor man's Ben Grieve (113). Very promising start, followed by a decline into mediocrity or worse.
Seems too much of a stretch -- that gap's just too big to make that analogy any good. Francoeur is the luckier version of Joe Charboneau. Or possibly the poor man's RH version of Todd Hollandsworth. Or the nice guy version of Chad Curtis (career 847 OPS vs. LHP).
Vince Coleman was entertaining only when he was failing to evade killer tarps. Other than that, he was annoying as a Cardinal, and positively unendurable as the guy the Mets signed to replace Darryl.
Given that the $5M is a sunk cost so that today's topic is not whether he should have been jettisoned last winter, but instead is what to do now, the easy answer (and what seems to be the consensus of the thread, too) is that Francoeur is OK as a platoon player. And, remarkably, it appears that the Mets are intending to use him basically in this role second half as long as the situation permits. They'll work around Beltran's likely need for days off, probably meaning that Pagan will play almost every day and Beltran will sit against lefties. When Beltran doesn't need a day off, but it's a lefty, Pagan will sit. And since it's the Mets, and goodness knows we aren't going to be lucky in all this, we'll be back to a Bay/Pagan/Frenchy outfield as soon as Beltran's surgical repair goes "oops."
Too bad he's not either of these things. He has a strong arm, that's it.
the easy answer (and what seems to be the consensus of the thread, too) is that Francoeur is OK as a platoon player. And, remarkably, it appears that the Mets are intending to use him basically in this role second half as long as the situation permits.
Platoon with who? You've got two switch hitters and Bay. You'd be crazy to take away even single at bat away from any of those three guys and give it to Jeffy. He's a $5 million paperweight at this point.
Does that sound like a player who can help a team in the midst of a nip-and-tuck playoff race?
Five games and pulling away folks. The wildcard might be close I guess.
You got more than you paid for then.
What do you want to bet he goes 2-4 with a HR and 3 RBI his next game and ##### everything up?
That depends on the replacement level for post value. (1)
(1) I actually liked your post Walt, but I never let that stand in the way of SABR snark.
Beltran can't play even close to everyday. Assuming he needs 2-3 days off per week (depending on whether you have an off day), you try and spot his days off against LH SP and use Francoeur.
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