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Thursday, July 15, 2010

ESPN: Meyers: Throw Frenchy from the 7 train

And go bury him in the ballyard before he stinks up the place!

The Mets need to forget everything they know about Jeff Francoeur. Forget that he’s making $5 million, that money is already spent. Forget that he was branded “The Natural” on the cover of Sports Illustrated in 2005. Forget that he is an affable guy who is loved by the local media. (The club already has Alex Cora fulfilling the “great guy, awful hitter” quota on the roster.)

Instead, they need to consider the data that matter most. Since 2005, Francoeur has a .308 OBP in almost 3,000 plate appearances. Among right fielders who qualify for the batting title this year, he has the lowest OBP and the second-lowest slugging percentage. Earlier this season, there was a glimmer of hope that he was finally learning the strike zone when he walked eight times in his first 12 games. But since then, he’s gone back to his hacking ways, swinging at everything this side of Montauk.

Francoeur is still running on the fumes of his former potential, but it’s time to realize that he is what he is: A 26-year-old plodding outfielder with a great arm who is capable of hitting some singles when a lefty is on the mound. Does that sound like a player who can help a team in the midst of a nip-and-tuck playoff race? The Mets’ margin of error for making the postseason is already small. Giving playing time to Francoeur only makes it smaller.

Repoz Posted: July 15, 2010 at 09:52 PM | 20 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralHistorySabermetricsProjectionsAtlantaNY Mets

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   1. The District Attorney Posted: July 15, 2010 at 10:04 PM (#3590931)
They're aware of this, but, thanks.
   2. Jim Wisinski Posted: July 15, 2010 at 10:51 PM (#3590954)
The article writer is also aware of it, he mentions it in his first paragraph.
   3. Rich Rifkin Posted: July 15, 2010 at 11:17 PM (#3590961)
Frenchie (career OPS+ 92) is a very poor man's Ben Grieve (113). Very promising start, followed by a decline into mediocrity or worse.
   4. TVerik, AKA Snoopy Snoopy Poop Dog Posted: July 15, 2010 at 11:22 PM (#3590966)
The writer is saying that he's way below replacement level? Despite a pretty compelling case, I'm thinking that this is not true.
   5. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: July 15, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3590967)
The only corner outfielders with 3000 plate appearances and a worse OPS+ than Frenchy who have played since I was born are Vince Coleman and Scott Podsednik.
   6. TVerik, AKA Snoopy Snoopy Poop Dog Posted: July 15, 2010 at 11:33 PM (#3590969)
I'm not asserting that he should be a fulltimer, Tom. But fourth OF/PH players?
   7. Mike A Posted: July 15, 2010 at 11:42 PM (#3590972)
There's little doubt that Frenchy could stick in the majors in a Matt Diaz-type role - a 4th OF/platoon player.

To say he's a singles hitter against LHP is unfair considering his .484 career SLG% against them.
   8. jwb Posted: July 15, 2010 at 11:42 PM (#3590974)
Francoeur has always hit lefties well: .830 OPS for his career, .850 this season (77 PA). $5M is obviously too much to pay for the short side of a platoon outfielder, but that level of performance has value and he's not blocking anybody. Well, Nick Evans, I guess.
   9. John DiFool2 Posted: July 15, 2010 at 11:44 PM (#3590976)
And Coleman had the SBs. If Frenchy didn't have a decent glove, his bat would indeed cause his value to dip into the negative WAR range: according to BBRef, he's -47 with the bat career, but +43 with the glove. Even with that, he was only +0.2 WAR last year, +0.8 this year (-3.0 in '08)
   10. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: July 16, 2010 at 12:19 AM (#3590987)
Coleman at least was entertaining. Frenchy ... not.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: July 16, 2010 at 12:22 AM (#3590988)
Francoeur has always hit lefties well: .830 OPS for his career

This isn't really hitting lefties "well." It's not clear it's enough to even carry the RH part of a platoon and I bet you could find dozens of guys in the minors who could do this. I don't know if he's still playing but even Matt Murton put up an 850 OPS vs. LHB. Reed Johnson is also at 850 for his career and he can still play some CF for you. League RHB vs LHP split 2010 is about 750 so Frenchy carries about a 120 OPS+ (I know, that's just an approx) for a corner OF. Pretty much any RHB who anybody ever thought might hit well enough to be a corner OF probably carries at least an 800 OPS against LHP.

To say he's a singles hitter against LHP is unfair considering his .484 career SLG% against them.

Fair enough but the ISO is just 182 compared to a league average RHB vs. LHP ISO of around 145 so it's not like he crushes them.

I don't mean to make too big a thing out of it -- sure, as an example, if they were the players you had around, a Fukudome/Francoeur platoon would be fine. And of course Francoeur is a player the Mets have around and they probably don't have anybody better for the bench job in the minors, so they might as well hold onto him. My point is he doesn't hit LHP well, he hits them just well enough to hang onto a job.

Frenchie (career OPS+ 92) is a very poor man's Ben Grieve (113). Very promising start, followed by a decline into mediocrity or worse.

Seems too much of a stretch -- that gap's just too big to make that analogy any good. Francoeur is the luckier version of Joe Charboneau. Or possibly the poor man's RH version of Todd Hollandsworth. Or the nice guy version of Chad Curtis (career 847 OPS vs. LHP).
   12. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: July 16, 2010 at 12:30 AM (#3590992)
Reading [11] took 45 seconds of my life I'll never get back.
   13. Sam M. Posted: July 16, 2010 at 12:59 AM (#3591014)
Coleman at least was entertaining. Frenchy ... not.

Vince Coleman was entertaining only when he was failing to evade killer tarps. Other than that, he was annoying as a Cardinal, and positively unendurable as the guy the Mets signed to replace Darryl.

Given that the $5M is a sunk cost so that today's topic is not whether he should have been jettisoned last winter, but instead is what to do now, the easy answer (and what seems to be the consensus of the thread, too) is that Francoeur is OK as a platoon player. And, remarkably, it appears that the Mets are intending to use him basically in this role second half as long as the situation permits. They'll work around Beltran's likely need for days off, probably meaning that Pagan will play almost every day and Beltran will sit against lefties. When Beltran doesn't need a day off, but it's a lefty, Pagan will sit. And since it's the Mets, and goodness knows we aren't going to be lucky in all this, we'll be back to a Bay/Pagan/Frenchy outfield as soon as Beltran's surgical repair goes "oops."
   14. Matt H. Posted: July 16, 2010 at 02:01 AM (#3591069)
A plus bat against LHP and plus fielding in RF isn't exactly a horrible player. Granted he would have to be used perfectly to exceed his 1 WAR or so value, but Frenchy isn't going to cost the Mets a championship, just like Juan Pierre isn't going to drag the White Sox down. These are stars and scrubs based lineups, as are most teams'. Let the 1 WAR players be 1 WAR players and hope your stars have good years.
   15. jwb Posted: July 16, 2010 at 02:35 AM (#3591107)
I don't know if he's still playing but even Matt Murton put up an 850 OPS vs. LHB.
And he's hitting 352/401/513 for the Hanshin Tigers.
   16. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: July 16, 2010 at 03:57 AM (#3591158)
A plus bat against LHP and plus fielding in RF isn't exactly a horrible player

Too bad he's not either of these things. He has a strong arm, that's it.

the easy answer (and what seems to be the consensus of the thread, too) is that Francoeur is OK as a platoon player. And, remarkably, it appears that the Mets are intending to use him basically in this role second half as long as the situation permits.

Platoon with who? You've got two switch hitters and Bay. You'd be crazy to take away even single at bat away from any of those three guys and give it to Jeffy. He's a $5 million paperweight at this point.

Does that sound like a player who can help a team in the midst of a nip-and-tuck playoff race?

Five games and pulling away folks. The wildcard might be close I guess.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: July 16, 2010 at 04:03 AM (#3591160)
Reading [11] took 45 seconds of my life I'll never get back.

You got more than you paid for then.
   18. Lassus: Posted: July 16, 2010 at 08:08 AM (#3591177)
You poor saps. He wasn't in the lineup and we lost tonight!

What do you want to bet he goes 2-4 with a HR and 3 RBI his next game and ##### everything up?
   19. Russ Posted: July 16, 2010 at 11:33 AM (#3591194)
You got more than you paid for then.


That depends on the replacement level for post value. (1)


(1) I actually liked your post Walt, but I never let that stand in the way of SABR snark.
   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 16, 2010 at 01:09 PM (#3591239)
Platoon with who? You've got two switch hitters and Bay. You'd be crazy to take away even single at bat away from any of those three guys and give it to Jeffy. He's a $5 million paperweight at this point.

Beltran can't play even close to everyday. Assuming he needs 2-3 days off per week (depending on whether you have an off day), you try and spot his days off against LH SP and use Francoeur.
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