|
|
|
|
Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Or as Jonah sez..."I still prefer Rob n’ Rany...but Rob n’ Jonah will have to do for now.”
Rob: OK, so how about the Mariners? Seems like a long time ago, doesn’t it, that they were everybody’s favorite dark horse?
Jonah: Not mine! I didn’t like them at all at the start of the season. I wasn’t quite as optimistic about the A’s as you were in late March (kudos on that one), but I had no problem with anyone predicting a third-place finish for Seattle, even last place if the Rangers ever got their pitching together. To me, the biggest issue with the M’s was their woeful lack of secondary players. You had four stars on this team: Erik Bedard, King Felix, J.J. Putz and Ichiro, with Adrian Beltre a fifth player you could classify as very good. After that, ugly. The Bedard trade subtracted a very important bullpen arm in George Sherrill and what would have been a valuable defensive outfielder in Adam Jones.
In fact, for all the wailing about the M’s offensive problems, it’s been their inability to catch the ball that’s been their most consistent problem over the past couple of years. They turn fewer balls in play into outs than just about any team in baseball. Raul Ibanez resembles a mummified Boog Powell in left field, and plenty of others on the roster have defensive reputations that far exceed their actual contributions. Throw in injuries and ineffectiveness turning Putz into half the dominant force he was last year, and Ichiro, at least to date, looking like he may actually be human, and I just don’t see enough here. The Mariners don’t make the playoffs, they don’t contend for the playoffs and we see wholesale changes between now and Opening Day 2009.
Rob: I think that’s right. The M’s went to a great deal of trouble to improve their rotation, and the guys they got have been fine. But they’re still stuck with Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn, both of whom make good money but can’t actually pitch. And the M’s are last in the league in OBP and only figure to improve a few slots once Ichiro gets going. Fork, meet M’s.
And for those of youse home sick today (hi Mike & Paula!)..."Rob and Jonah will debate these five teams’ fortunes on ESPNews’ The HotList Tuesday at 4:10 p.m. ET.”
|
My Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Stay classy, Rob.
Oh, and amen.
Yankees are done, if they don't start getting some pitching out of their young horses. Thats what saved their bacon last year. Might be time for the Joba to the rotation move.
Yep. They also called up Jeremy Reed. You'd think they'd DH Ibanez and let Reed play LF and improve their O and their D. You'd think.
What does Vidro have to do to get his vesting option to kick in?
What does Vidro have to do to get his vesting option to kick in?
Does it matter? Bavasi probably wants to sign him to an extension.
Only two teams? really?
Clement for Delgado!
Rob has a history of declaring teams dead way before they are dead, It seems that he thinks a 7 game deficit is impossible to overcome. Heck any team is in it, if you think they have the talent if they are within 15 games. Heck I'll argue that being within 7 games back on September 1st, with the unbalanced schedule, still makes you a legitimate contender.
The D-rays is probably on that list, although I don't think many people were predicting much out of them before 2009, the Brewers aren't particulary young right now, just a young relatively established nucleus. heck most people look at young teams and say "these guys can surprise" but rarely do I see a young team consensually predicted to win the division, usually if overpredicting young team, a person will give a nod that they finish in second place.
Well, a lot of folks were predicting Milwaukee to "surprise" starting in 2006. And Milwaukee got a lot of nods in advance of the 2007 season.
Not saying they SHOULD have predicted any such thing. Just that it was happening.
By the way, since starting the 2007 24-10 the Brewers are 79-93. I don't seem to recall anyone winning a d*mn thing with that type of record. Not that I am venting or anything.......
Ichiro career splits:
March/April - .293/.348/.395
May - .367/.414/.468
Ichiro 2008 splits:
March/April - .252/.310/.361
May - .328/.392/.403
Just a typical Ichiro slow start.
And just for kicks and giggles...
Ichiro 2004 splits:
March/April - .255/.309/.304
That said...wow, Ichiro is 34 years old already...
I'd be more willing to believe the Yankees were done if someone could identify which team is certain to finish ahead of them in the wildcard standings.
This average thing really is silly. The starting infield has three guys 25 and under. Two of the outfielders. Two of the starting pitchers. That's seven key guys. The starting third baseman is 28.
Two starting position players are over 30. One starting pitcher. And then a slew of bench guys and relievers.
Contrast that with the Cardinals branded as 'young' by Mr. Hanke. The only guy 25 or under who is starting is the catcher. Not a single starting pitcher 25 or under with Wainwright at 26. It's a bunch of guys clustered at 28 and 29.
Though I am guessing you will now trot out McClellan as some kind of "key guy".
All ages courtesy of BBREF.
I didn't bring up the Diamondbacks. I was comparing them to St. Louis and the issue of using a clumsy instrument like an average.
And by the way, I specifically stated that folks were predicting things for Milwaukee in 2006. 2-0-0-6. cfb's post in reply clear suggests he was thinking of this year. Which is not too soon at all.
But I know that the Cardinals current record has made every Redbird fan here both sensitive and aggressive a la the D'backs fans. Can't say "boo" without getting the whole hive stirred up and angry.
Or is this when you toss out some more unwarranted snark about folks not reading carefully or some such?
I am old, but I am not completely daft nor ignorant when undeserved insults are shoved in my face.
and was wondering what it was directed towards. I can't imagine anyone considering the Cardinals team to be young.
about the average age thing, yes it's a joke but my point was that almost everyone of their major players, with the exception of Braun, has a couple of years experience that you can reasonably project them from. The Brewers collection of players is playing below any reasonable projection(offensively) and if that was the point of post 14 then I just don't see it. If it was directed at the Cardinals, then it's even more absurd point. I'm trying to understand what the point of post 14 was and can't find what I would consider evidence that it's accurate to anything going on this year.
I had the same question. This part really jumped out at me:
As is, a lot has to fall into place for the Yankees to make the playoffs. If it takes well more than 90 wins to get the wild card this year, I don't know if they can do it.
Doesn't that seem like a pretty enormous "if" at this point?
Nobody asked me but I would GUESS the poster is discussing the fairly common trend around BBTF to get overly enthused about teams with young talent. And failing to appreciate the ups and downs associated with a team learning to play/win together.
Boy, no kidding. You look at the AL Central, where the White Sox are on pace to win the division with 87 wins and you have to think the wildcard's not coming from there. Then, you go to the West and with the A's having come back toward Earth and the Mariners and Rangers being, well, the Mariners and Rangers, you have to think the wildcard's not coming from there. So that leaves the wildcard coming from the East. It's WAY too early to believe that the Orioles are for real and Toronto has a knack for ending up with about 83 wins, which isn't likely to get it done. And that leaves the Rays and the Yankees. As of right now, I'd say the Rays are better, but when your main competitor is a team that's never won more than 70 games in a season in its history, yeah, it's way too early to be counting out the Yankees (unfortunately). (and, of course, I realize that there are at least half-a-dozen other teams that could realistically still win the Wild Card)
that part I can understand, just thought it came out of leftfield in my opinion.
Be prepared for a fight to the death when Troy's fanbase sees THAT comment. Because OF COURSE he is FAR SUPERIOR to his peer group. It's not even close.
By the way, I like Tulo. Fine defensive player. Just the constant denigrating of Braun wore a bit thin.
Well, Vidro's awesome .558 OPS puts Clement's .536 to shame! You just can't bench that .558, it needs to play! Especially since Vidro's gotten over 2 times as many at bats to prove himself.
Neyer delivers a lot of product, fresh, on-time, occasionally spicy, but has he advanced any of this? Is he a case of the Woody Allen maxim of success just being showing up on time and meeting deadlines?
On the flip side, what sabermetric analyst, working for the Worldwide Leader with an editor and a desire to have continued readership/employment, would give you substantially more "advanced" content?
Sure, Neyer doesn't write articles as in-depth analytically as, say, the guys at Hardball Times most of the time. But that's not his audience when he's writing for ESPN, particularly on Page 2 fer chrissakes. But I think you underestimate how difficult it is to present stuff that we take for granted to a less SABR-friendly audience and keep them engaged and interested.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main