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Friday, June 11, 2010

ESPN NY: Matthews: A-Rod’s numbers, early exit troubling

Tower of power, I wanna know what hipness is!

It made you wonder if in fact Rodriguez has been hiding an injury all along, from his manager and his teammates, an injury that became readily apparent to all the trained eyes in the Yankees’ dugout the moment Jones’ ball—“a routine play” under normal conditions, A-Rod had called it—squirted past him.

And it made you wonder if that was the reason for the anemic home run total and the curious lack of pop in his bat this season, a season in which he is supposedly healthy in both body and mind, especially having finally won himself a World Series ring.

“You definitely miss him in the lineup,” said A.J. Burnett, who took the loss to the Orioles with the Yankees’ Triple-A lineup behind him. “You have faith in all the guys, but it’s definitely a different lineup without him.”

Burnett was talking about Thursday night, but now that you think about it, he may well have been talking about the entire season.

Something hasn’t been quite right with Alex Rodriguez all year long. Someday soon, we might actually get to find out why.

Repoz Posted: June 11, 2010 at 09:52 AM | 24 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralNY Yankees

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   1. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: June 11, 2010 at 12:04 PM (#3556205)
Jones' ball wasn't close to being a routine play. What was striking about the play wasn't that ARod didn't field the ball--it was probably a hit regardless--it was that he didn't move at all.
   2. Who wants Teixeira dessert? Posted: June 11, 2010 at 12:06 PM (#3556207)
Groin pull. But were older ladies or female impersonators involved?
   3. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: June 11, 2010 at 12:24 PM (#3556217)
Jones' ball wasn't close to being a routine play. What was striking about the play wasn't that ARod didn't field the ball--it was probably a hit regardless--it was that he didn't move at all.
Agreed 100%, but because he didn't move at all, it seemed to me less that he was hurt than that he just completely misjudged it and didn't even react until it was past him.
   4. AROM Posted: June 11, 2010 at 01:51 PM (#3556273)
Yankees triple A lineup? That's a bizarre way of describing a team that still had Jeter, Cano, Tex, Swisher, Granderson, and Posada in it.
   5. RayDiPerna Posted: June 11, 2010 at 02:13 PM (#3556296)
And it made you wonder if that was the reason for the anemic home run total and the curious lack of pop in his bat this season, a season in which he is supposedly healthy in both body and mind, especially having finally won himself a World Series ring.


You know, he has this season routinely, a season where he puts up a 130 OPS+:

1997: 120
1998: 136
1999: 134
2004: 131
2006: 134
2010: 130

People overrate how good of a hitter he is. He's never been peak Barry Bonds or peak Mark McGwire, or even peak Albert Pujols or Jason Giambi. ARod's best OPS+ season is 176, which is 247th on the all-time list. His next best is 173, which is 288th. His next best is 162, which is worse than 500th.

Several players have multiple seasons (let's say a minimum of three) of an OPS+ higher than ARod's best, including:

Bonds
McGwire
Pujols
Aaron
Thomas
Ruth
Williams
Mantle
Musial
Foxx

Hell, Kevin Mitchell had two seasons better than ARod's best.

Obviously ARod is a great player. But he's not at the top tier of greatest hitters ever. He's not even the hitter that Manny Ramirez is.
   6. Blackadder Posted: June 11, 2010 at 02:20 PM (#3556307)
People overrate how good of a hitter he is.


True, but I think a lot of people still underrate how important positional adjustments are, so overall he is "rated" about right (excepting the choker silliness, of course.)
   7. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: June 11, 2010 at 02:35 PM (#3556317)
Jones’ ball—“a routine play” under normal conditions, A-Rod had called it—squirted past him.

And it's not often any kind of ball goes squirting past A-Roid. He typically gobbles it right up.
   8. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: June 11, 2010 at 02:39 PM (#3556323)
Tower of power, I wanna know what hipness is!

I wonder if he ever thinks How Could This Happen to Me. Time Will Tell if he's Still a Young Man or now just a Man from the Past.
   9. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 11, 2010 at 03:02 PM (#3556351)
I can't believe I'm saying this, but losing Gardner hurts as much as missing A-rod right now. His ability to get on (.395 OBP this year, .367 since the beginning of last year) and sprint around the bases (21 for 25 in SBs) has been critical for a lineup that's pretty slow and hasn't hit as many HRs as it did last year. Hopefully his thumb injury doesn't affect his swing when he comes back. Plus the downgrade in defense from him to Thames/Russo certainly looks like it is extreme.
   10. RB in NYC (Now with New Running Goal!) Posted: June 11, 2010 at 03:44 PM (#3556391)
I can't believe I'm saying this, but losing Gardner hurts as much as missing A-rod right now.
You say that now, but once we're subjected to two weeks of Ramiro Pena, I think views might change.

Incidentally, the Yankees are dealing with one of the problems of an older team, injuries like A-Rod's (and Swisher's and Gardner's thumb, though Gardner isn't old, obviously) that might not merit a DL trip but force them to miss 5-6 games. Their bench tonight, for example, will basically be whichever of Russo or Thames isn't playing LF, Moeller--who you can't really use and wouldn't anyway--and Garnder for PR purposes. That's laughable.
   11. RayDiPerna Posted: June 11, 2010 at 03:52 PM (#3556399)
And it looks like the clock has struck midnight on Cervelli. A .504 OPS over the past 28 days.
   12. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 11, 2010 at 04:05 PM (#3556410)
You say that now, but once we're subjected to two weeks of Ramiro Pena, I think views might change.

####, that's not what they're going to do is it?

Brandon Laird isn't an important prospect and there is zero doubt in my mind he's a better player than Pena. Bring him up, who gives a #### what it does for his development. Or at least see if Russo can get on base a bit during that time. I am so fed up with Pena, I don't care how good his glove is (and I don't think it's that good).

And it looks like the clock has struck midnight on Cervelli. A .504 OPS over the past 28 days.

Still walked a decent amount during that clip. I don't think he's likely to continue to hit .180 going forward. I'd guess he finishes the season hitting ~.255, with a .340 OBP. That makes him a useful player. What's more troubling than his slump (which was obviously going to happen) is how lousy he's been at throwing out baserunners.
   13. RayDiPerna Posted: June 11, 2010 at 04:14 PM (#3556421)
But even .255/.340 probably comes with a .300 SLG. I'm not sure how useful that is. I _am_ sure that it's a freefall down from Posada. No, Cervelli needs to hit at least .280 to be useful given his secondary skills.
   14. RJ not in TO Posted: June 11, 2010 at 04:29 PM (#3556443)
Incidentally, the Yankees are dealing with one of the problems of an older team, injuries like A-Rod's (and Swisher's and Gardner's thumb, though Gardner isn't old, obviously) that might not merit a DL trip but force them to miss 5-6 games.


Swisher isn't old either. Those are poor examples of the "problems of an older team".
   15. Big Train Posted: June 11, 2010 at 04:29 PM (#3556444)
Pena is terrible, and its worse, because having Russo on the roster is like having two Penas. There is no need for a second Pena. Or a second Russo.
   16. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 11, 2010 at 04:34 PM (#3556451)
But even .255/.340 probably comes with a .300 SLG.

He's got a .067 ISO in his extremely short major league career. A .340/.320 line out of you backup catcher isn't bad, assuming he can throw better than Cervelli has to start the season (he certainly has the arm to be better than this). He'll also pick up a run or two on the bases compared to other catchers.

I _am_ sure that it's a freefall down from Posada.

No argument here. I think he can develop into a second division starter (he's 24 this year), but right now I am eager for Posada to be healthy enough to catch.

Pena is terrible, and its worse, because having Russo on the roster is like having two Penas. There is no need for a second Pena. Or a second Russo.

Adams is only a year and a half away fortunately and Nunez (who sucks but is better than Pena) could probably fake it at SS soon enough. And then we can execute (or demote I guess) both of them.
   17. RayDiPerna Posted: June 11, 2010 at 04:46 PM (#3556463)
He's got a .067 ISO in his extremely short major league career. A .340/.320 line out of you backup catcher isn't bad,


But he's not the backup anymore, is he? At the very least it seems like the Yankees will want him to catch 3 or 4 times a week, even after (if?) Posada is healthy.
   18. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 11, 2010 at 04:57 PM (#3556476)
But he's not the backup anymore, is he? At the very least it seems like the Yankees will want him to catch 3 or 4 times a week, even after (if?) Posada is healthy.

I'm not sure, but I only meant to suggest that Cervelli is player that is useful to have on a Major League roster, not necessarily in his current role. I agree that as a starter, if he hits .255 playing 4 times a week, the Yanks are going to need to get a lot more offense out of their corner infield spots than they have so far. If he can hold at .280 (which I don't think is likely), then he at least doesn't shoot the offense in the foot. The Yanks seem to be pretty high on him, so you're probably right about his future playing time this season.
   19. Big Train Posted: June 11, 2010 at 05:12 PM (#3556498)
He isn't really the catcher of the future though. I would be surprised if he has a signifigant role next year, as the Jesus is coming.
   20. Big Train Posted: June 11, 2010 at 05:18 PM (#3556503)
you would like to see Romine hitting for more power, but he is hitting .300 as a 21 year old in AA.
   21. TVerik, AKA Snoopy Snoopy Poop Dog Posted: June 11, 2010 at 05:29 PM (#3556518)
He isn't really the catcher of the future though. I would be surprised if he has a signifigant role next year, as the Jesus is coming.


Given the paucity at the position (particularly in the backups), a "proven" hitter with some upside and a good glove would be - at worst - significant trade bait. We'll see if the Yanks get a DH in 2011 or whether Po is effectively not a catcher anymore. If Posada's not in the mix at C, I'd be a bit surprised if Cervelli doesn't get a few hundred ABs in 2011.
   22. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 11, 2010 at 05:58 PM (#3556552)
you would like to see Romine hitting for more power, but he is hitting .300 as a 21 year old in AA.

Trenton absolutely kills power. His Iso in Trenton is .095 and away it's .180. His walk rate is up, his K rate has held steady and he's at least held his ground offensively as he's moved up a level. I think this start for Romine has definitely elevated his prospect status.

Montero shows no signs of breaking out of his slump. But I'm fairly confident he will start to heat up eventually.

If Posada's not in the mix at C, I'd be a bit surprised if Cervelli doesn't get a few hundred ABs in 2011.

Even if Posada is in the mix, I'd be fine with carrying three catchers next year if two of them are Jesus and Posada. That's two guys that can hit enough to play DH (assuming Jesus shakes out of his slump) and then Cervelli can fill in holes and be the guy who allows Joe to play both of them on the same day. It's not like they're going to have a better bench option that Cervelli will be holding back.
   23. Darren Posted: June 11, 2010 at 06:18 PM (#3556574)
The AAA line really jumped out at me as fanboy generated. I'm sure the Orioles were embarrassed that they were only able to beat a team that had about $150 million in payroll available.
   24. tfbg9 Posted: June 11, 2010 at 06:24 PM (#3556580)
Wally Matthews came into my office one day. He's about 5'2". A natural to be a Yankee fan, IOW.
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