Fitzgerald, the writer not the prosecutor, noted that the victor belongs to the spoils. I wonder how Jones' career would have turned out if he hadn't hit 92 HRs over years 2005 & 2006. Another case of "mission accomplished" here, perhaps.

which is why Omar Vizquel is likely to gain induction some day

Wait, what?

111 OPS+ in 12 full seasons. No peak to speak of. Pass.

He's a worse candidate than Puckett, and Puckett, to me, defines borderline for the modern era. You'd have to convince me his defense was otherwordly for his whole career, rather than just great for the first 5 years, and good since.

which is why Omar Vizquel is likely to gain induction some day

Wait, what?

Makes you re-think that Milhouse-Bart baseball card trade, doesn't it? Turns out that Yaz for Vizquel isn't so lopsided.

Only chance he had was of a nice slow decline that tracked what you typically see from good players. Because he started so young, the counting stats would look good (500 home runs, perhaps), and then you look at his defense, and that package would make him a hall of famer in many people's eyes.

Falling off a cliff like he has? No way. He's toast, and maybe even off the ballot after year one.

Well...who's more deserving of a HOF vote...Jones or Rice?
(As the sleeping dog wakes up and bites me in the arse.)

Falling off a cliff like he has? No way. He's toast, and maybe even off the ballot after year one.

Oh...he'll hang around a while, might even make it.

(Using BBWAA-think here)

1-Considered the greatest fielding CF since Willie Mays...if not ever.

2-The early WS success (TWO...count 'em TWO WS HR's as a 19-year old!)

3-The 50-HR season still pulls a lot weight

4-He smiled. Often.

4-He smiled. Often.

Even when he strikes out!

Nah, the lingering image of him late in his career will likely mean he won't even cut the 5% mark. HoF voters look very closely at batting average, which will among other things pretty much kill his candidacy. The HoF monitor pegs him at 101.5, which is about right; I'd peg his over/under for first ballot votes at 10.

I'd sure like to know what happened in 2000, when he hit .300 the only time, and had cut his K rate down to 15% of ABs; he was only 23 years old. The next year it shot up to 22%, the BA dropped to .251, and we know the rest. There's an argument that he should have ended up somewhere around 6th all time in CF, but the same thing could be said of Ruben Sierra in RF (his top comp at that age)-I know comp lists get little cred here, but his age 23 comp list is riddled with guys who should have been superduperstars, but weren't (Canseco, Conigliaro, Cedeno, Juan Gone, and Miggy Cabrera I'll note and say no more).

I think I've got Jones rated higher than Puckett, but Puckett is a borderline candidate, one of the worst statistical selections by bbwaa. I don't think Jones, as of today, is deserving, or has any chance of getting in. The writers prefer a .320 hitter with 20 hr to a .260 hitter with 35 and more walks, even if value is the same. And having your career end because you got fat is not going to get the same sympathy votes as a guy who lost his vision.

Well, Kirby got fat too but it didn't stop him from being able to play.

Andruw Jones is a true American hero. [Too soon?]

Can the President give Andruw Jones the Medal of Freedom and then we can all call it a day.

It's not like Jones getting fat is a new thing. He won the Gold Glove* from '98-'07, funny how he's all of sudden to fat to play when he's not hitting anymore.

*I know the Gold Glove is a useless measure of defense, but I'm talking about from the writers perspective.

which is why Omar Vizquel is likely to gain induction some day

Wait, what?

Yep.
Eleven Gold Gloves, around 2,700 hits, played a key role in Cleveland's resurgence, regarded as a clean player and nice guy - for the BBWAA, good enough.

I think I've got Jones rated higher than Puckett, but Puckett is a borderline candidate, one of the worst statistical selections by bbwaa.

How many runs per season are you coming up with for his defense? I've seen some contradictory things on Andruw's fielding.

Of course Omar will go in. He was a great player, not a run of the mill shortstop like Barry Larkin.

Gold gloves are voted on by managers and coaches, not writers.

Puckett was forced to retire due to glaucoma. That's a little different than being forced to retire due to obesity. Jones may have smiled a lot, but Puckett was the beloved, huggable plush toy face of his franchise (little did we know it was a Sexually Assault Me Elmo plush toy).

On the face of it Jones is an absurd choice, but OTOH take a hypothetical twin brother of his whose CF defense was exactly league average. What sort of career offensive numbers would this "twin brother" have had to post in order to have had a career of equal value to Andruw's? And who would be his rough equivalent in terms of career value? A Bernie Williams who retired after 2002? (This is a question, not an argument one way or the other.)

Jimmy Wynn kicks Jones' butt all day long and he didn't even get a stinkin' HOF vote. Gawd.

There are people who think Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel are probably going to be elected to the HOF by the BWAAAAAA? Only if they start electing five people a year instead of their usual rate of one, two or zero.

I stick by my earlier statements, virtually everyone who is currently active or retired in the current millennium will find it very hard to get elected, there will be a huge logjam, and if Robert Alomar or Craig Biggio gets in in less than five years on the ballot, let along Omar Vizquel, I will be very surprised. Will Clark got a whopping 23 votes his only time on the ballot. Andruw Jones has no chance at all and neither does Larry Walker.

I'm a Braves fan who consistently watched the team's games during all of Andruw's peak. I don't see him lasting more than a year or two on the ballot. The low BA is one thing, as noted above. For his career he's hit .249 with RISP, and did so looking ugly, swinging at bad, bad pitches a lot of the time, especially in his last few years. He was mediocre in the postseason.

His defense will get him some benefit of the doubt, but I don't see the writers liking him any more than they do Dale Murphy (who also dropped straight off a cliff, albeit two years older)

I stick by my earlier statements, virtually everyone who is currently active or retired in the current millennium will find it very hard to get elected, there will be a huge logjam,

...and the Vets Committee will elect everyone and his mother to more than compensate for it sometime in the future. God only knows what flotsam and jetsam will compete with Highpockets Kelly and Rube Marquard for the honor of worst HOF enshrinees ever.

...assuming Jones is as old as he says he is, and no older. If he really is a bit older, that would go a long ways towards explaining the drop-off.

Gold gloves are voted on by managers and coaches, not writers.

Yeah, but the writers care about them.

Fairly or unfairly Jones is going to be looked at as having fallen off a cliff in large part due to his weight gain and apparent lack of interest in keeping himself in shape. Koufax, Murphy, and Puckett all get sympathy due to physical problems ending their careers (though Murphy doesn't seem to have been helped much by that, maybe because he kept playing and dropping off instead of having to retire immediately) but Jones will get none of that since the perception is that he's largely responsible for his fall.

If Jones is done (and I don't think that is a settled question) then he will not end up in Cooperstown. If he can find a new team and have a little resurgence then he may add the necessary meat to his career numbers to gain more support. Problem is, if he stays to increase the HR, RBI, SB #'s then his batting average will likely continue to drift lower. .259 BA is not going to win a lot of love from BBWAA voters.

Yeah, but the writers care about them.

And they also care about the thing they do vote on, MVP. Puckett had 3 top 3's and 7 top 10's (all 7th or higher) in MVP voting. Jones had 1 and 2.

(somewhat on-topic -- check out the use of the cross symbol to indicate "fell off the ballot" at the wikipedia page for each year's BBHOF voting. Since the first player with the cross symbol is Rod Beck, I naturally thought it indicated "R.I.P." And then...Travis Fryman is dead?!? Shawon Dunston is dead?!? Wow...no, maybe Todd Stottlemyre is dead, but all the others, that can't be right.)

On Omar:

Rabbit Maranville was regarded as a great defensive SS, played 2153 games at SS (2670 overall) which I think was the record at the time. He put up an 82 OPS+ with 291 steals. He was inducted by the writers.

Luis Aparicio was regarded as a great defensive SS with 9 GG and 13 AS games. He played 2583 games, all at SS, I think the record at the time. He put up an 82 OPS+ with 506 steals. He was inducted by the writers.

Ozzie Smith is regarded as the greatest defensive SS with 13 GG and 15 AS games. He played 2511 games, all at SS. He put up an 87 OPS+ with 580 steals. He was inducted by the writers on the first ballot.

Dave Concepcion was regarded as an excellent defensive SS with 5 GG and 9 AS games. He played 2178 games at SS and 2499 games overall. He put up an 88 OPS+ with 321 steals. He was not inducted by the writers but stayed on the ballot all 15 years with a high of 17% (usually around 12-13%).

Omar Vizquel is regarded as a great defensive SS with 11 GG (2nd only to Ozzie) but only 3 AS games (that'll teach him to be in the same league as AROD, Jeter, Nomar and Tejada). He played 2654 games at SS, the record, and 2680 games overall. He had an 83 OPS+ (those last couple years killed him) with 385 steals. FWIW, he had the highest OBP and 2nd highest OBP+ in this group.

It would be perfectly consistent for the writers to induct Vizquel but it comes down to whether they see him more like Concepcion or more like Aparicio/Ozzie. And really the only thing that separates him from those two (by HoF criteria) is the low number of AS games. He's also hurt by the fact that he's clearly behind Ozzie defensively while Aparicio was considered the greatest when he retired.

There have really only been 4 players similar to Omar in MLB history -- i.e. "great" defensive SS who played a long time and hit about like an average SS.* Three were voted in by the writers and the other one at least lasted 15 years on the ballot.

* you could try to add Campaneris and Bowa but both are well short on defensive rep and games and Bowa was a much worse hitter. Even so that's 3 out of 6.

Now, who knew Ozzie had more steals than Aparicio? Does Ozzie hold the record for a SS? Wills has 586 to Ozzie's 580 but 81 of his came while playing mainly 3B for Pittsburgh. (52 steals at age 35 is pretty impressive I must say)

Koufax, Murphy, and Puckett all get sympathy due to physical problems ending their careers (though Murphy doesn't seem to have been helped much by that, maybe because he kept playing and dropping off instead of having to retire immediately) but Jones will get none of that since the perception is that he's largely responsible for his fall.

And like Koufax, Puckett was still very productive when his illness forced his retirement. His last 2 seasonal OPS+'s were higher than his career rate.

somewhat on-topic -- check out the use of the cross symbol to indicate "fell off the ballot" at the wikipedia page for each year's BBHOF voting. Since the first player with the cross symbol is Rod Beck, I naturally thought it indicated "R.I.P." And then...Travis Fryman is dead?!? Shawon Dunston is dead?!? Wow...no, maybe Todd Stottlemyre is dead, but all the others, that can't be right.)

The cross indicates first year on ballot. Raines has one too.

That link brings up an interesting question, is Jose Rijo the only guy to get victimized by the 5% rule twice?

Does Ozzie hold the record for a SS? Wills has 586 to Ozzie's 580 but 81 of his came while playing mainly 3B for Pittsburgh. (52 steals at age 35 is pretty impressive I must say)

Campy probably. 649 steals, 2097/2281 career games at SS.

Edit. Definitely. In 1981 and 1983, Campy logged 103 of his career 184 non SS games, and recorded only 11 steals, which leaves him at 638 steals in 2094/2175 games.

Wagner had 722 steals, but played over 1/3 of his career elsewhere

Honus Wagner, 722 steals. No idea how many of his steals came as a shortstop.

I know comp lists get little cred here, but his age 23 comp list is riddled with guys who should have been superduperstars, but weren't (Canseco, Conigliaro, Cedeno, Juan Gone, and Miggy Cabrera I'll note and say no more).

Most similar age 23 seasons to Andruw Jones (using season similarity scores)



That's a lot nicer list than the BBref one (I haven't figured out how to do this for partial careers yet, so this is just a one-season comparison).

Maybe Andruw should go ON Jeopardy. I'd pay to see that.

Who knows with Jones?

Other than the obvious weight which showed up at least five years ago there are no other "ah-has".

Me, I just think he was like Cecil Cooper. Got along on innate talents, never really worried about staying in top physical shape and then one day it all went plooey. And with no experience in really working at a craft had no coping mechanism.

He was a talented drifter. Now he's sitting at a wayside hoping for one last ride into town.

Gonna be a long wait......

Got along on innate talents, never really worried about staying in top physical shape and then one day it all went plooey.

That's exactly how I see him. He always struck me as someone with little "craft" (as a hitter, anyway). It's not surprising to me at all that he fell of the cliff.

Me, I just think he was like Cecil Cooper. Got along on innate talents, never really worried about staying in top physical shape and then one day it all went plooey. And with no experience in really working at a craft had no coping mechanism.

Whoa, that doesn't sound like the kind of person who'll be a successful manager of the Astros. Although I guess he is wiser now that he is older. And perhaps a great motivator.

I still feel Andruw's downfall - much like Murphy's - was brought on by physical issues. Murph's knees started betraying him and he could no longer produce the bat speed to catch up with the outside pitch. Andruw, lest we forget because of his conditioning, played in 165-175ish games over every season...diving like crazy and throwing his body on the line every night. And though Andruw does deserve criticism for not keeping his weight down, the guy never rested despite numerous injuries. I think it caught up.

I see some parallels to Griffey Jr so hopefully Andruw isn't quite done yet. He's a nice kid who was often unfairly maligned by Brave fans. Good luck to him.

I have great appreciation for what Cecil did as a Brewer but also no illusions.

He gained 25 lbs easy between 1979 and 1982. He worked on his stance.

And that was it.

bb ref lists Jones at 6'1", 170.
One hundred and seventy.
I take it that was at age 19?

ESPN lists him as 210. SI lists him as 240. I'm guessing SI is the most accurate. :p

Got along on innate talents, never really worried about staying in top physical shape and then one day it all went plooey.

That's exactly how I see him. He always struck me as someone with little "craft" (as a hitter, anyway). It's not surprising to me at all that he fell of the cliff.

Didn't surprise me a bit, either---that line about "craft" is very well put. And thank God that was one bullet that the Yanks managed to dodge.

The "craft" line is a good one.

But I'd guess a lot of it still comes down to how much innate talent ... and maybe what sort ... he had. He's always been a low-middling BA, good-excellent power hitter. He K'd a good bit (nothing shocking) and had a decent number of walks. As a rule, those sorts of hitters don't age well. What made him so freaking valuable was his ability to do it playing CF and playing it extremely well (for a while at least). While the steepness of the decline is surprising, his age 30 line of 222/311/413 really isn't that surprising for this sort of hitter -- Gorman Thomas started doing that at age 32; Tony Armas (a hacker) had seasons like this; Cameron's fairly similar and he had that sort of season at ages 25, 29 and 31. (OK, a lot of Cameron's numbers are park-related, those were still 100+ OPS+s mostly). Greg Vaughn had those sorts of seasons at 29 and 31.

Into P-I now (BA<270, ISO>200 through age 30), but Howard Johnson had that sort of season starting at 31 and never really bounced back. Ron Gant did it at 32 and bounced back. Preston Wilson had that season at 29, bounced back, did it again at 31 and was done. Adjusting for context, Deer had that season at 30, bounced back, repeated it at 32 and was done. Incaviglia had his first disaster at 27, again at 30 and again at 33. Jose Cruz, Jr cratered at 32.

Hitters like this having these sorts of seasons sprinkled throughout their late 20s and 30s is pretty common. Some bounce back well enough -- Thomas, Armas, Cameron and Vaughn all did to an extent), others never do (most in that second list). What I didn't notice was any of these guys doing it in consecutive seasons and bouncing back (OK, Thomas kinda). And really, of the 15 guys on that list within +/- 10 OPS+ points of Jones, only Kingman, Sosa and Gant (the three at the top) could be said to age well -- "athletic" or not. Now, not all of that "aging" was due to poor offensive performance, there were a lot of injuries in that group (both before and after age 30), but it's not a happy list.

Last year's offensive debacle was as scary as it gets and what really concerns you is the apparent defensive decline. Even if Jones rebounds to 240/330/450, that's not much good in a corner. I mean he'd probably find a job if he could guarantee that sort of production, but why take a chance on him bouncing back to mediocrity? Any bounce back would likely be short-lived. Toast.

I've got Jones at 57 career wins above replacement. That's not good enough to waste any time arguing that he should be a HOFer. Some of the retired outfielders in the same win neighborhood:

These guys are just above him:

Jimmy Wynn
Bobby Bonds
Andre Dawson

And these guys are just below:

Cesar Cedeno
Jose Cruz
Chet Lemon
Fred Lynn

Seems like Hall of very good to me.

people thought he might have been because he was well on pace to top 500 dingers before his epic falloff, a 500 dinger CF would be a no-brainer, but since he fell off so quickly. I'm pretty darn sure he aint going in.

Who's a better candidate Edmonds or Jones?

I don't think that Jones ever had an offensive season as good(rate wise) as Edmonds, but the defense helps out Jones case.

if Robert Alomar or Craig Biggio gets in in less than five years on the ballot . . . I will be very surprised.

Get used to being surprised. Alomar and Biggio will make it in 3 years at the most, 1 or 2 far more likely.

Do you expect them to start inducting five or so people every year?

Who do you anticipate being elected in each of the next five years?
(hmm, maybe we should all answer this question. Are there lists of upcoming ballots anywhere?)

Get used to being surprised. Alomar and Biggio will make it in 3 years at the most, 1 or 2 far more likely.

I've debated this before, Biggio is a lock, but Alomar I think is going to need a push. He's deserving but I think he has a small battle

Are there lists of upcoming ballots anywhere?

I can't find a current list, but Google found this old version.

Looking at those upcoming ballots, Andre Dawson and (egads!) Jack Morris are both probably going to make it. Blyleven is starting to look like a lock now even if he doesn't get in this year. It looks like 2011 is the first full-fledged "steroid ballot."

Hitters like this having these sorts of seasons sprinkled throughout their late 20s and 30s is pretty common. Some bounce back well enough -- Thomas, Armas, Cameron and Vaughn all did to an extent), others never do (most in that second list). What I didn't notice was any of these guys doing it in consecutive seasons and bouncing back (OK, Thomas kinda). And really, of the 15 guys on that list within +/- 10 OPS+ points of Jones, only Kingman, Sosa and Gant (the three at the top) could be said to age well -- "athletic" or not. Now, not all of that "aging" was due to poor offensive performance, there were a lot of injuries in that group (both before and after age 30), but it's not a happy list.

Yet no one feels the need to ask if Dave Kingman or Greg Vaughn are really the age they claim. God that annoys me. Andruw Jones is 31. His career cratered early. This is not an argument in favor of adjusting his age so that it more neatly meshes with your presumed statistical model for production by age. The model is a ####### average. It looks like it does not because every player in the world declines from 32-35 but because for every Barry Bonds there is an Andruw Jones.

Yet no one feels the need to ask if Dave Kingman or Greg Vaughn are really the age they claim. God that annoys me.

The "age question" is overdone, but it's not like there isn't uncertainty about ages of players coming from the Carribean that doesn't exist for U.S. born players. Many players have instantaneously aged in the not too distant past. Of course, I have no idea of the state of record keeping, or the level of corruption, in the Netherlands Antilles.

The "age question" is overdone, but it's not like there isn't uncertainty about ages of players coming from the Carribean that doesn't exist for U.S. born players. Many players have instantaneously aged in the not too distant past. Of course, I have no idea of the state of record keeping, or the level of corruption, in the Netherlands Antilles.

The vast majority of players with age-adjusted birth certificates have come from the Dominican Republic, rural Mexico or rural South America. The Dutch Antilles have solid record keeping. Andruw Jones is no more likley an "age-gate" candidate than is Albert Pujols. Or Dave Kingman.

(hmm, maybe we should all answer this question. Are there lists of upcoming ballots anywhere?)

Check here. There's a list of the new ballot members on the right sidebar for 2010 to 2014, with 2014 still being highly speculative.

I've debated this before, Biggio is a lock, but Alomar I think is going to need a push. He's deserving but I think he has a small battle

Alomar was a 12 time All-Star, 4 Silver Sluggers, 5 times in top 10 MVP voting, and 10 time GG. He even has the nice shiny 0.300 BA, a 474-114 SB/CS, was a major part of 2 WS champs, and in the playoffs a total of 7 times for a .313 .381 .448 line with a 20/2 SB/CS ratio. For him to have a wait of longer than 3 years would be a complete reversal for the BBWAA - he's everything that they seem to like.

For him to have a wait of longer than 3 years would be a complete reversal for the BBWAA - he's everything that they seem to like.

Yeah, but he spit on an ump and sucked with the Mets.

Me, I just think he was like Cecil Cooper. Got along on innate talents, never really worried about staying in top physical shape and then one day it all went plooey. And with no experience in really working at a craft had no coping mechanism.

Cooper fell off a cliff at age 34 (went from 138 to 95)
Jones fell apart at age 30 (went from 126 to 88).

4 years is a lot. Cliff dives are relatively "common" at any age after 32 or so...

It looks like it does not because every player in the world declines from 32-35 but because for every Barry Bonds there is an Andruw Jones.

ACtually for every Barry Bonds there is an Andruw Jones AND a Dale Murphy AND a Roberto Alomar AND a Geoprge Fopster AND a Jim Fregosi

if Jones fell off at 34 instead of 30, his chances for the hall would be good, assuming that he average around 30 dinger during that 5 year span (which he did from 99 to 06 easily and even had 26 in his first cliff year) he'd be at like 490 dinger at age 34. which would be a no-brainer lock for the HOF regardless of whatever happened afterthat (on the field, of course)

...AND a Geoprge Fopster...

OK, so the guy totally cratered, but does he really deserve typos in both his first and last names?

OK, so the guy totally cratered, but does he really deserve typos in both his first and last names?

That depends on whether someone is a Mets fan.

Andruw Jones is no more likley an "age-gate" candidate than is Albert Pujols. Or Dave Kingman.

Or Rich Rowland.

OK, so the guy totally cratered, but does he really deserve typos in both his first and last names?

Yes

Even if Jones' numbers continued for another couple of years so that there was a real argument about him, so many people have always regarded him as a guy who didn't quite become the monster he could have been. I'd have to think that would have worked against him if he's was truly borderline.

OK, so the guy totally cratered, but does he really deserve typos in both his first and last names?

Are you trying to contend that George was not, in fact, a fopster?

Blasphemy!