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Cardenas is apparently the real deal, but Blanton's under contract through 2010, so I think this is a solid move for the Phillies.
I don't know. Can't really get excited about this one from either side.
-- MWE
Then I realized that there aren't any dumb teams desperate for pitching in contention! It might stay that way, too. . .
So is Blanton taking Myers' or Eaton's spot in the rotation? Myers seems to have done well in his brief send down to the minors, and looked ready to go right back into the rotation. And needless to say, Eaton has been awful. I don't know how the Phillies feel about sunk costs, but it's basically a sunk cost either way, as both Myers and Eaton are under contract through 2009 for big money.
I think he'll be phine (heh heh) in Philly.
Naw but in seriousness I like Cardenas as a return, and, who knows, maybe Outman can be all Greg Smith-y or something. Hard to make anything of Spencer one way or another.
(Well, I if we use FIP, then his Philadelphia FIP would be somewhere in the 5.40s.)
I think so. He could be all right. I'm still glad he's the Phils now. Next up, Bobby Crosby. Is professional baseball really thin in shortstops these days? I have to think the A's would love to bring a SS into the system with one of these trades, but there doesn't seem to be much out there. The Golden Age of Shortstops seems to be over.
And I know I said Street in the other thread, but with more reflection the A's aren't packing it in until/unless they trade Duke.
The Dodgers and Mariners respectively. It will be hard to trade Bedard if he is not healthy.
I'm not a huge fan of this deal, but after objectively looking over both sides of the trade, I'm less perturbed about it. It was basically Cardenas-for-Blanton and Cardenas was roadblocked at second base because of Chase Utley. I'd rather have used him as trade bait, obviously. I just think the Phillies could have done better than Blanton, even without giving up Lou Marson or Jason Donald.
EDIT: I'm sad about giving up Cardenas though because I think he would have been really fun to watch.
Yeah, we've kinda gotten by on smoke and mirrors all year as it is, and we haven't hugely downgraded with either of these trades, and I don't think we would by trading Street, but if Duchscherer gets traded that's the official white flag, I think.
I'm not sure what Oakland has been doing with Patterson. The Cubs converted him to a full time OF.
It's worth considering that for Blanton's career, his home ERA has been 1 run lower than his road ERA. This year, his road ERA is 1.10 higher than at home.
The Coliseum is mostly pitcher friendly, Citizen's Bank is not. These are their PPF's over the last 5 seasons (since CPB opened):
2008 - Oak 93; Phi 104
2007 - Oak 89; Phi 103
2006 - Oak 98; Phi 104
2005 - Oak 104; Phi 105
2004 - Oak 98; Phi 104
While Joe has been healthy so far for Oakland, I think the Phils might consider investing in a neck brace for him.
Remember when the Cubs stocked up on second basemen? Now look where they are, best record in their league. Stocking up on 2B is the new market inefficiency.
Goodbye, Mark Ellis?
The Phillies, who have received really terrible production from the 4/5 slots in the rotation, could definitely use some innings at a 4.20 ERA, and they might even get 3.6o if they're lucky and the league change works in Blanton's favor.
Also, while in general I find that the typical BTF A's nickname smacks of effort, I think "Cupcakes" is pretty awesome and encourage Phillies fans to steal it.
2B in every game he's played at Sacramento.
-- MWE
The NL East can hit though.
I said this in the other thread, but the A's are not necessiarly out of it this year. Only a few games back and with the Angels overperforming, they COULD stick in it. However, Beane clearly has a telos and decided before the season that he'd dismantle and build for the future, and he's sticking with that plan now.
Also, wouldn't St. Louis also be a natural fit for Burnett?
Neither of the good prospects were going to be up with the Phils for at least two years, and Cardenas was going to be included in some trade anyway, unless they switched him to third base or something. (hmm, I guess they could have done that. anyway...)
Heh, weren't they the main competition for the Jays in signing him?
What the A's should do with Ellis is make him an everyday player, shifting between 2B and SS, maybe a little 3B. Fill in around him as needed with the prospects, journeymen, and Chavez and Crosby when healthy. Letting go of Ellis, perhaps the most underrated player in baseball, seems foolish.
Heh, weren't they the main competition for the Jays in signing him?
Carpenter's about to start his minor league rehab assignment. The Cardinals will probably know a lot more about their pitching needs in another week or two.
It's been very pitcher friendly the last 2.5 seasons, counting this year:
2008 PPF - Oak 93
2007 PPF - Oak 89
2006 PPF - Oak 98
I believe that mostly explains why Blanton has been so much worse on the road.
Ellis is underrated but do you really want to pay a 2b on the wrong side of 30 a 4y/40m dollar contract, possibly more? Luis Castillo got 4y/24m and he's not the player Ellis is. He'll get that.
only if the Jays agree to pay a large portion of that massively overpriced salary. even that I'm not sure that Burnett is worth acquiring, Going by just this year alone he would barely beat out Looper for a job.
That would be a dumb thing to do.
agreed, unless you think there is a reason why he is performing this badly.
It could be in part that he's been a little bit unlucky. His stuff is second to none and he has strong peripherals. He could have a dominant second half.
Supposedly Wainwright isn't too far behind.
Reyes/Kozma for Burnett would be a fair deal for the Cardinals though.
A's stopped playing Ellis at SS and 3B after his shoulder labrum injury. Patterson at 2B now and Cardenas at 3B in a couple of years isn't all that unlikely. Who knows about Weeks.
With McGowan facing possible shoulder surgery, the Jays probably won't move Burnett without getting an MLB-ready starting pitcher in return. Now the Phils can afford to send one (Blanton, Kendrick, or possibly even Myers) in a deal for Burnett, and might even be able to get a deal done without moving Carlos Carrasco. Jason Donald (Phils SS prospect) would also be a great fit for the Jays. The pieces are now there for the Phils to get Burnett - it's up to Gillick to close the deal.
The latter can't be underestimated. When the trade was made for Haren, the biggest concern from the DBack's perspective was how a flyball pitcher would succeed in Chase field. Now, Haren has been lucky this year, no doubt, but I think his results also indicate that he's benefited from facing hitters in the NL. And he's certainly has handled pitching in Chase well, 5 HR in 66 innings with a 2.43 ERA, better than his road ERA of 3.05.
My guess is that Blanton surprises people by how well he pitches in the NL, and in the CBB. Certainly he's not pitching in the NL Worst, but he'll still see some benefit from seeing no DH and less talented hitters.
Initially the contract was overpriced but in comparison with what FA pitchers have been getting the last few years Burnett has become a slight bargain.
The speed looks great but not a huge use of base-stealers these days and, unless Beane's gone, it's hard to imagine the A's letting him loose on the basepaths.
Unless he's willing to waive his player option, the Jays are going to struggle to get a good return for him. CC Sabathia, who's clearly superior to Burnett, only brought one premium prospect (LaPorta) and a handful of marginal minor leaguers in return. Myers and Donald, perhaps with another B-list prospect in the deal, are probably more talent than they'll get anywhere else for a half-season rental of Burnett.
Aren't the A's also waiting on Taylor Green, the rumored PTBNL in the Sabathia deal, to see if he can handle second base?
Blanton's AL true talent was around 4.45 ERA I'd guess, using a 3-2-1 projection. Park adjust that, and we get 4.61. AL-NL transition is around .60 counting the DH. Add some special "bigger than average transition" points, and we're looking at a 3.80 ERA? Park adjust that back to Philly, and we're at a 3.87 ERA?
No point subtracted for the NL East since he's not facing the Phillies offense. Facing the 3rd, 4th, 8th, and 15th offenses (average rank, 7.5 of 16 teams) disproportionately often doesn't seem to warrant an adjustment there.
That analysis was obviously lots of random guesswork, but it's as good a guess as any I think.
I don't see the Dodgers going after starting pitching, unless it's part of a larger trade for several parts. They are fourth in the league in starter ERA - .10 behind the Cubs, even with Penny having spent an extended period trying to pitch through an injury (and consequently biting the big one in that period). Their problems have been on the offensive side - several huge holes, with nobody except Martin really excelling offensively at their position. And of course, Saito's likely end as a Dodger leaves another hole. But starting is something that the Dodgers are unlikely to touch, unless they can get a good starter at a bargain - even Ned knows the holes are elsewhere.
I think we can all agree that if Beane pulls that off, that would undeniably constitute a steal.
#23, this was my take as well (borne out by #55 and #59). Let Ellis go (or take arbitration, that's a sure win for Oakland) and take the picks; Cardenas can handle it. Patterson in the wings if he implodes and/or to back up 2B and LF. I like this series of moves for Los Athleticos, and if Beane can get any serious return for Duchscherer having the season of his lifetime at age 30, they should be well equipped to bring a title to Fremont.
Cardenas was probably the best prospect attainable from the Phillies and might have been their best prospect overall, so needing a 2b didn't have to factor into things for the As to try to pick up Cardenas.
It seems like Beane is confident enough in his plans that if he decided earlier this year to not resign Ellis than he wasn't ever going to resign Ellis, no matter who they did or didn't pick up in trades.
Duchscherer
Greg Smith
Dana Eveland
Sean Gallagher
Gio Gonzalez/Andruw Brown
(in no particular order)
Anthony Reyes
Lastings Milledge
Homer Bailey
The Dodgers and Mariners respectively. It will be hard to trade Bedard if he is not healthy.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6910/news
"Mariners manager Jim Riggleman said Thursday that Bedard likely will not pitch early next week, meaning he also likely won't be traded before the deadline on July 31."
Not a chance, IMO.
kevin, you crack me up.
Wonder if that was misuse of a word, or just an inspired one.
Ahh, the thin line between genius and folly.
But which word?
Yeah, but it's a funky use of the word iteration, too.
Shooty it never occurred to me they would trade Crosby too. I hope not. I would really miss his D.
If they're dumping guys who they fear are going to depreciate in value, I have to think Crosby is on the list. Chavvy would be, too, if he could stay on the field for more than 3 days at a time. Duke and Ellis are they guys I hope they keep.
Yeah, it has been. Last season was a snooze. The team stunk and the FO seemed asleep at the wheel.
I don't see Donnie Murphy as being the A's next full time shortstop, though I'm just going on feeling/first impressions. Is Pennington the shortstop of the future?
He's due to make $5 million next year. I don't know who replaces Crosby. Petit, probably. Ironically, according to Dial's #'s, Scutaro is kicking Crosby's butt this year.
Crosby is 28 years old now. Man, time flies.
If the A's contend down to the wire but fall short this season, will the Beane haters say he made a big mistake by rebuilding? "He could have won it, but he gave up instead."
EDIT:
I agree the A's defense, especially the infield defense, makes their pitchers look better than they are. The ballpark also makes their pitchers look better. The A's have a pitching-factory going on here, where they develop these young pitchers, who look great pitching in Oakland, and trade them to other teams in the league for more prospects.
Also, since no one else has provided it:
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/
Cot's is an excellent resource for contract information.
kevin, you crack me up.
Indeed--I'm amused, in the good way. I honestly have no idea what that sentence means.
Yes. I'd hate to see him go as there is no way they could trade him for full value. His D is so good, he should be great even with a decline over the next 2 or 3 years.
If the A's contend down to the wire but fall short this season, will the Beane haters say he made a big mistake by rebuilding? "He could have won it, but he gave up instead."
Screw the Beane haters. Just watch the games Gallagher pitches. If the A's do well in those games, then the haters can lump it. I'm not going to worry about losing Blanton. If the A's lose the division because they lost him, I won't cast any stones.
Super-superduper good. Like 15-20 runs per year with his glove alone good. Like makes you want to poke Mark Grudzielanek in the eye for winning a gold glove good.
*smashes watermelon*
It means what you THINK it means!
Mulder
Hudson
Haren
Harden
Gaudin
Blanton
Some of these have worked out well, and I can see the reasoning with all of them. Still, though, if I were an A's fan, Beane's trading away ALL of those guys, including the last four within that last year, would give me real pause. Harden I can see with the injuries, and Hudson and Mulder because of the money, but I think Haren/Gaudin/Blanton is a nice start on a rotation--your #1, #3 and #4, maybe, and it's not they they cost a lot. I do agree with Joey B on one thing: Beane has balls.
That, or he thinks teams that are trying to win now and need SPs value good SPs more than teams who are rebuilding/reloading do.
And I don't think age has anything to do with it--it's just a circumstance of service time.
Still around, believe it or not.
Well, fine, but when does this "future" start, and why couldn't a guy like Dan Haren be part of it? Beane may know exactly what he is doing and may be putting a cheap, 95-win team on the field in 2011. But I think what he is doing has some major risk attached to it and is very speculative.
The next step now is to go all in. For me, that probably means Bedard. Carrasco, Marson, Golson, whatever. Their window is the next couple of years. Howard/Utley/Rollins/Burrell (assuming the latter is resigned) still producing well, Feliz and Victorino shoring up the D, Hamels/Bedard/hopefully resurrected Myers/Blanton in the rotation, Lidge and whatever else closing the deal. I'm usually with the prospect loving people around these parts, but for this Phillies' team, get rid of everybody under 23 to take a run in '08 and '09.
Ah--that clears it right up!
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