Dude, they totally should not have traded Brian Bannister for this guy.

I thought reading the headline that the Mets had released K-Rod.

i liked it better in the old days when the big story was that mets relievers couldn't handle their weed.

He poisoned her while she was in protective custody? Sheesh.

I'm going to go ahead and mark this trade as a loss for the Mets. Though it probably doesn't crack the top 5 worst trades they've made.

This guy is the Dominican O.J.

O.J. actually succeeded.

Julio Machado is unimpressed.

Somehow I knew this was going to be a story about Ambiorix Burgos. We can be thankful he's not friends with Ugueth Urbina.

I'm going to go ahead and mark this trade as a loss for the Mets. Though it probably doesn't crack the top 5 worst trades they've made.


He has an 87 era+ since leaving the Mets and it's down to 79 in the last three seasons. There's no probably about it. Bannister had a flukey good season in 2007 but he's not someone you worry about losing.

but he's not someone you worry about losing.

On the other hand, Ambiorix seems to be a guy to be worried about having in the dressing room. Of course he didn't actually murder any teammates during his stint as a Met, but that seems like good luck in retrospect.

I'm going to go ahead and mark this trade as a loss for the Mets. Though it probably doesn't crack the top 5 worst trades they've made.


He has an 87 era+ since leaving the Mets and it's down to 79 in the last three seasons. There's no probably about it. Bannister had a flukey good season in 2007 but he's not someone you worry about losing.

On the other hand, you might not want to view that deal in isolation. This came 3 weeks after Omar had flipped Heath Bell (and the immortal Royce Ring) to San Diego for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson. He must have thought he was getting an upgrade on Bell with Burgos, who had saves under his belt by that time.

Burgos turned put to be a disturbed individual but when Omar made the trade he was a 22 year old who had 137 strikeouts in 136.2 IP at the major league level. I think he could have become a great reliever.

On the other hand, Ambiorix seems to be a guy to be worried about having in the dressing room. Of course he didn't actually murder any teammates during his stint as a Met, but that seems like good luck in retrospect.

If I were a snarky, callous man, which it is well known that I'm not, I'd suggest that given the Mets' recent fortunes it might be considered *bad* luck in retrospect. Depending on choice of victim, of course.

But if Banniater had his flukey good 2007 season with the Mets, do they make the playoffs and maybe get on a hot streak?

Of course he didn't actually murder any teammates during his stint as a Met, but that seems like good luck in retrospect.


Or bad luck. If we knew then what we know now, perhaps we should have told him that Luis Castillo was talking smack about him.

Burgos turned put to be a disturbed individual but when Omar made the trade he was a 22 year old who had 137 strikeouts in 136.2 IP at the major league level. I think he could have become a great reliever.


I was incredibly excited about Burgos, and I thought it was an absolute steal to get him for Bannister. I also think criticizing Minaya for not believing in Heath Bell, a 28-year old relief prospect with no real showing of long-term ML success, is incredibly unfair. You have the benefit of hindsight now, but most 28-year old relief prospects coming off the second consecutive year of 5+ ERA and 1.5ish WHIP do not become star closers.

His minor league numbers told a different story though. The degree of his success is unexpected, but his overall track record said "don't trade me for garbage." Omar pulled a similarly pointless trade with the Marlins involving Lindstrom and Owens at about the same time.

Omar pulled a similarly pointless trade with the Marlins involving Lindstrom and Owens at about the same time.

Omar traded Bell for garbage but the Lindstrom deal was another one I really liked. Jason Vargas looked like he had a chance of having a nice career as a #3-4 type starter. He got hurt and things didn't work out for the Mets but he has pitched very well for the Mariners this season.

His minor league numbers told a different story though. The degree of his success is unexpected, but his overall track record said "don't trade me for garbage."

I think Bell's minor-league numbers are often overrated based on too much attention to strikeouts and walks, especially at A and AA. At age 23, he gave up lots of hits and home runs in AA. He turned it around the following year at 24 in AA for less than 40 innings, and then struggled for the next two years in AAA, again with high hit-rates and HR-rates.

If your first ML appearance is at age-26, you're really not much of a prospect. You might be a guy that could put together a couple of good seasons, but by age 28, it was looking very much like Bell would never make his K/BB ratio into much of a career. The Mets gave him two years as a significant part of their bullpen, and in both of them, he was a replacement level pitcher (negative WAR).

I think the general perception around the league was that Bell was garbage. A hit-prone, HR-prone relief pitcher going into his age 29 season, is not a commodity that many people value. Even if he's got some nice K-rates and BB-rates.

Somehow I knew this was going to be a story about Ambiorix Burgos.

Jeff Reardon was my first guess. I'd forgtten entirely about Burgos.

Somewhere, Bizarro Posnanski is updating the Ambi Log*.

*This comment recycled from the last time Burgos was charged with murder.

[17]

You might be a guy that could put together a couple of good seasons, but by age 28, it was looking very much like Bell would never make his K/BB ratio into much of a career.

Bell had talent that the Mets missed. His K/BB ratios in 2005 and 2006 were 3.3 and 3.2, respectively. His K/BB ratio in 2009 was 3.3 and in 2010 it's 3.3. Heath Bell's babip showed large variations.

In 2004 his babip was .309 (vs. team babip of .289).
In 2005 his babip rose to .373 (vs. team babip of .289).
In 2006 his babip rose again to .398 (vs. team babip of .288).

After being traded, his babip from 2007-2010: .258, .285, .297, and .333.

The Mets gave him two years as a significant part of their bullpen, and in both of them, he was a replacement level pitcher (negative WAR).

How was Bell a significant part of the Mets' bullpen? The Mets constantly shuttled Bell to and from the minors. In 2004-2006, Bell pitched 119 minor league innings and 108 major league innings. His major league innings were low leverage, with his average leverage index values of 0.76 in 2004, 0.65 in 2005 and 0.34 in 2006.

Minaya and Peterson had no idea what they had in Heath Bell and Peterson apparently was not very helpful. In "Under the Radar, on Top of the N.L." in the August 12, 2010 edition of The New York Times, Tyler Kepner wrote:

“Everybody’s pulling for each other, and I think it’s probably because of our backgrounds, because our original clubs didn’t really want us,” Bell said. “We came here and found a home.”

Bell made little impact in parts of three seasons with the Mets, who traded him in 2006 for pitcher Jon Adkins and outfielder Ben Johnson. The Mets had urged Bell to use a longer stride in his delivery, which he said never felt right. The Padres had a different perspective.

Darren Balsley, the pitching coach, said he had watched Bell closely for years, impressed by the way Bell’s short stride seemed to make the ball explode from his hand. He worked with Bell on refining his natural mechanics, instead of revamping them.

It's not just revisionist history. In a New York Times article from November 16, 2006 ("BASEBALL; Mets Add Outfielder at the Right Price"), Ben Shpigel wrote:

The Mets could use a cash infusion, too, after spending nearly $16 million to re-sign Orlando Hernández and José Valentín, so they took a more frugal route Wednesday in completing their third transaction of the week. They made a minor trade with the San Diego Padres, acquiring outfielder Ben Johnson and reliever Jon Adkins in exchange for relievers Royce Ring and Heath Bell. ... Ring, a situational left-handed reliever, figured to have more value than Bell, although Padres General Manager Kevin Towers said that he had coveted the hard-throwing Bell for a while.

Heath Bell always seemed like a good guy as a Met. I remember reading in the Times about his skating in Florida to and from the Mets' minor league stadium to get in shape. ("By Skate or Scooter, Mets' Bell Has Arrived", Lee Jenkins The New York Times, February 21, 2005)

For most of this off-season, while his teammates drove pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles to the Mets' training complex, Bell traveled nine miles from his house in Port St. Lucie on a pair of Rollerblades.

When Bell reported to spring training last week, he credited the skates for helping him lose about 20 pounds in the off-season, quelling the pain in his knees that comes from running, and strengthening the muscles in his legs that help him push off the mound and slide-step toward the plate.

Coaches looked at him as if he were half-genius and half-crazy. Baseball players often compare spring training to elementary school, and in this case, the teachers basically told a 27-year-old relief pitcher to put away his roller skates, at least while the semester is in session.

"They told me at the end of last season to get in better shape, and this is part of the reason I am in better shape," Bell, a right-hander, said Sunday. "But I didn't want to make a fuss about it, so I won't ride anymore this spring."

The pitching coach Rick Peterson had a son break his wrist riding Rollerblades, and he did not want to see one of his relievers take a similar spill. Peterson acknowledged the benefits of Bell's workout program and admired his creative commute, but he could not get the image of broken bones out of his mind.

"How many times do you hear about someone falling off?" Peterson said. "You can't motorcycle or sky-drive or go cliff-jumping in Mexico, and you shouldn't do this, either."

Most player contracts include clauses that prohibit such risky behavior. If Carlos Beltran so much as drove without a seatbelt, the Mets could probably take some legal action. But Bell is an undrafted free agent, a surgically repaired reliever who makes the major league minimum wage and says he has never even glanced at his contract.

"Nobody really cared about this before because nobody was watching me," Bell said. "Everyone just thought, 'Oh, he won't make it, anyway.' "

As for the statement in [17]

If your first ML appearance is at age-26, you're really not much of a prospect.

consider the following from the 2005 article:

Bell, after all, did not qualify for the varsity team in high school until he was a senior. He attended little known Rancho Santiago College in Santa Ana, Calif., labored for five years in the minor leagues and became the rare player to fracture his elbow while throwing a pitch.

While his peers devoted every ounce of their attention to baseball, Bell gave time to another cause. He has three children, among them a 2-year-old daughter named Jordyn, who was born with Down syndrome and has periodically had seizures. When Jordyn sees a baseball game on television, she says, "Daddy."

Heath Bell seemed like a decent guy with talent who got jerked around by the Mets, plain and simple. As an aside, I also remember reading the September 30, 2006 article about Bell taking the 7 train to Shea. ("BASEBALL; More Players Are Taking the Train to the Game"):

Reliever Heath Bell of the Mets can tell you all about the No. 7 train. He has been the Mets' human yo-yo this season, sent back and forth between the major leagues and Class AAA Norfolk enough times to leave him dizzy. Without his car, with a contract that is more minimal than mammoth, Bell rides the subway.

After regular-season games at Shea, Bell waits for fans to clear out of the stadium before he heads for the elevated platform above Roosevelt Avenue. If the fans are still around, he puts on a shirt and hat given to him by security personnel at Shea so he looks more like a security worker and less like Heath Bell -- not that Heath Bell is all that recognizable. He heads to the front of the station's platform and boards the first car, aiming to avoid the crowd.

It's nice to see Heath Bell succeed, even if it's for the Padres and not the Mets.

Julio Machado is unimpressed.

And Ugheth Urbina yawns with boredom.

This comment recycled from the last time Burgos was charged with murder.

This is Burgos 4th murder/attempted murder charge!?!?

We can be thankful he's not friends with Ugueth Urbina.

And Ugheth Urbina yawns with boredom.

I remain entirely unconvinced that UUU did anything he was accused of.

The man is/was a multi-millionaire who lives in Venezuela. His mother had been kidnapped and held for $6 million ransom just a year or two before he was arrested. That ended after 5 months with one member of the kidnapping group getting killed when police stormed their hideout.

You're going to tell me that he didn't piss off the wrong person somewhere in there? And he's already proven himself unwilling to pay a ransom to criminals to save those close to him, presumably out of principle.

I have always believed that he got the wrong gang angry, they staged the whole assault, and they had judges and juries on their side. And Ugueth didn't want to pay bribes to the right "authorities" to make his troubles go away.

When people say So and So is a bad person, well, okay fine. But at least they haven’t killed anybody. This guy is the Dominican O.J.

Attempted murder? Now honestly, what is that? Do they give a Nobel prize for attempted chemistry? Do they?

[23] Eh, but Chavez is as big a baseball fan as we have on this site. Hard to believe that would happen to one of the country's biggest stars.

It's nice to see Heath Bell succeed, even if it's for the Padres and not the Mets.

I liked Bell as a Met, and I wanted to keep him because I was also a believer in his K and BB rates. I thought the innings he got were a small sample size, although I think you overstate the case of "jerking him around" above a bit.

In 2005, only Looper (the closer), Heilman, and Hernandez threw more innings in relief for the Mets, and it's hard to justify giving Bell priority over any of those three guys. In 2006, the Mets had an absolutely loaded bullpen: Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, Feliciano, Bradford... again, there just wasn't a place where it would have been reasonable to give Bell more innings.

The 2005-2006 Mets were a bad place for a reliever to get high-leverage innings. They had lots of talent in the pen. So they gave Bell the best innings they could, and he performed poorly in those few chances he got.

I always pull for a guy that's as fan-oriented as Bell to succeed. I never knew about his family stuff either. I still think that Bell was the kind of player that most GMs would overlook. It doesn't surprise me that SD got him for practically nothing, and it's very hard for me to crucify the Mets on this particular player. This isn't "the Mets let Jesus Flores go in the Rule V draft" or "the Mets went out of their way to devalue a legitimate prospect like Lastings Milledge and then traded him for garbage" or "the Mets traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano because Al Leiter didn't like the kid."

[26]

The 2005-2006 Mets were a bad place for a reliever to get high-leverage innings. They had lots of talent in the pen. So they gave Bell the best innings they could, and he performed poorly in those few chances he got.

The 2005 team was loaded, but still gave innings to Aybar, DeJean, Koo, even Denny Graves. In 2006 Sanchez got hurt and they traded for Roberto Hernandez. Hernandez pitched 20.2 innings of 0.7 leverage from August onward. Bell had no appearances in August 2006 and 11.2 innings of 0.13 leverage in September. He did stink, but it sounds like with plenty of meddling from Rick "10 minutes" Peterson.

I always pull for a guy that's as fan-oriented as Bell to succeed. I never knew about his family stuff either.

What family stuff? That his cousin is Drake "Drake" Bell from Drake & Josh?

[28]

What family stuff? That his cousin is Drake "Drake" Bell from Drake & Josh?

As I posted in [20], from a 2005 newspaper account:

He has three children, among them a 2-year-old daughter named Jordyn, who was born with Down syndrome and has periodically had seizures.

I am hoping you hadn't read that before posting.

I am hoping you hadn't read that before posting.

I had not, as that post was way too long. That's interesting.

His cousin really is Drake Bell and that program is as likable as a tween sitcom can be.

The 2005 team was loaded, but still gave innings to Aybar, DeJean, Koo, even Denny Graves. In 2006 Sanchez got hurt and they traded for Roberto Hernandez. Hernandez pitched 20.2 innings of 0.7 leverage from August onward. Bell had no appearances in August 2006 and 11.2 innings of 0.13 leverage in September. He did stink, but it sounds like with plenty of meddling from Rick "10 minutes" Peterson.

Why should I care about his leverage? It's not like I'm measuring his performance with WPA. I'm using ERA and WHIP, which are leverage-independent.

The 2005 Mets had two non-closer relievers that were clearly better than Bell, and they got the lion's share of the high-leverage innings. Roberto Hernandez and Aaron Heilman had better ERA and better WHIP. Looper was the closer. Bell was the 4th man out of the pen, by number of innings pitched (and by number of games played, and again, he was not very good at all. The Mets also had Juan Padilla, who was much, much better than Bell. I don't see how you can reasonably criticize the Mets for not giving Bell enough innings in 2005, when he was somewhere around the 5th-7th best reliever on the team and he got the 4th most innings.

The 2006 Mets had an even better bullpen. They had Wagner, Heilman (who had earned a high-leverage spot in the pen with his 2005 performance), Duaner Sanchez (through the end of July), Chad Bradford, and Pedro Feliciano, all of whom were better than Bell. When Sanchez went down, they got Roberto Hernandez back. I also don't see how you can fault the Mets for not giving Bell many more innings in 2006.

The Mets didn't give Bell many high-leverage innings because:
1) He wasn't very good in the innings they did give him, and,
2) They had lots of arms in 2005 and 2006 that were clearly better.

Nobody expected Sanchez to break his shoulder and miss the entire 2007 season. The Mets still had Wagner, and Heilman, and Feliciano. They had Joe Smith who was looking just as promising as Bell, only 6 years younger. They got Burgos, also six years younger than Bell, with better stuff. That Willie Randolph used Schoenweis as a regular reliever instead of a LOOGY and fell in love with Guillermo Mota makes that 2007 pen look a lot worse than it really was. The 2007 bullpen was still pretty solid.

Nobody would have been surprised if Heath Bell put up a 1.5ish WHIP and a 5+ ERA in 2007. It is not shocking that the Mets didn't see a need to keep him. There is plenty to bash the Mets on in terms of making bad decisions, but it's a real stretch to say that they were boneheads because they didn't see Bell putting it all together at age 29 after a very slow progression in the minors and two very bad relief seasons in the majors.

By the way, I love talking about guys like Heath Bell. It would have been better if the Mets had kept him but I don't blame them for cutting bait. It would have been better if they got more but I don't see much of a trade market for a player with his credentials in the 2006-2007 offseason.

I'm glad he's having success because he seemed like a genuinely fan-friendly guy and a bit of a character, and it's not like he's killing the Mets 19 times a year in Philly or Atlanta.

[31]

Why should I care about his leverage?

Because the low leverage index values starting even in 2004 indicate that the Mets never really put Bell into significant game situations and that he was not really "a significant part of the Mets' bullpen."

There is plenty to bash the Mets on in terms of making bad decisions, but it's a real stretch to say that they were boneheads because they didn't see Bell putting it all together at age 29 after a very slow progression in the minors and two very bad relief seasons in the majors.

No, they were boneheads in how they coached him (see above) and even how they treated and diagnosed a 2003 elbow injury I believe he suffered while pitching.

An 8/24/04 mlb.com piece stated:

A non-drafted free agent in 1998, Bell suffered a stress fracture of his right elbow last May and pitched with it until it was detected last August. He had surgery to correct the problem in October.

So, why did Bell's injury go undetected for so long? The Mets wouldn't give Bell an MRI.

Adam Rubin wrote in the Daily News in April 2005

Mets brass told Heath Bell to be prepared to start the season at Double-A Binghamton last year. Or, one minor league official told the reliever, he had another option - be released.

Bell, who had a six-inch screw inserted in his right forearm less than six months earlier, cannot forget the conversation.

"Okay, me coming back from arm surgery, going to Double-A wasn't that big a deal to me or a shock, because I knew the numbers game," Bell said. "But they said you can have your release if you want it. My heart just went whoomp. I just felt like the Mets organization lost all faith in me. It wasn't a major arm surgery or anything like that."

... Little has come easy for Bell. He signed with the Mets in June of 1998 after going undrafted. He pitched for most of last season with a broken bone in his forearm that wasn't diagnosed until October, after he begged for an MRI because his velocity fluctuated between 86 and 95 and his arm didn't feel right.

... The months it took to determine his injury last year particularly irked him.

"They said it was a nerve or a muscle. They didn't diagnose it properly," Bell said. "In August, one day I would throw 95, the other day I'd be throwing 86, and I couldn't figure it out. I just said, 'My arm doesn't feel right.' I begged and begged and finally got an MRI in August. I mean, I was on the 40-man roster at the beginning of the year but they took me off, so I figured they would give me one right away. And then in August they go, 'Oh, your bone is cracked.' "

It's not clear what the basis was for their doctors' diagnosis. It's not clear why they didn't give Bell an MRI promptly, or whether the fact that Bell wasn't on the 40-man roster had anything to do with it. But after the recent Mets medical follies, nothing would surprise me.

[32]

By the way, I love talking about guys like Heath Bell.

Me too.

Because the low leverage index values starting even in 2004 indicate that the Mets never really put Bell into significant game situations and that he was not really "a significant part of the Mets' bullpen."


Who would you have him displace? Guys like Aybar and Koo had 20-25 innings and every team has a few guys that they throw at the wall each season. It's not like those guys were 7th/8th inning guys either.

It's not clear what the basis was for their doctors' diagnosis. It's not clear why they didn't give Bell an MRI promptly, or whether the fact that Bell wasn't on the 40-man roster had anything to do with it. But after the recent Mets medical follies, nothing would surprise me.

I still can't figure out the medical staff issue. It seems like they've just been incompetent. It's not like there aren't great, great doctors in the area. Are they hiring Yankee fans or something?