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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, October 09, 2008Evan Longoria is Baseball Jesus
Is Evan Longoria the son of the Baseball Gods? Discuss. |
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Where I come from, this is not good.
Anyone have any thoughts as to who they'd rather have over the next 4 years: Longoria or A-Rod?
I don't think Longoria has a lot of room for improvement in his numbers. He hit 370/730 on-contact. That's already huge, especially for a rightie, It is nearly AROD-esque (385/730). So he's unlikely to do better than that in the future and there's a good chance he'll do worse. The most obvious place for growth will be a higher walk rate which is probable given his power and that he already has a decent walk rate. But significant growth can pretty much only come from a fairly substantial improvement in his K-rate. It's not horrible by any means (about 1 per 4) and if he can get it to about 1 per 5, then he'll start putting up AROD type seasons regularly.
But that starts to be a lot of ifs. If he really is an outstanding on-contact hitter (or gets even better) and he can start walking 90-100 times a year and he can get his K-rate near to league-average and of course he stays healthy, then he'll be as good a hitter as AROD is these days.
Not every 22 year-old improves and I wouldn't be surprised if this ended up being among Longoria's better seasons by a rate stat perspective.
Or he'll give Schmidt a run for his money as greatest 3B ever.
One of those two. :-)
Over the next four years? A-Rod. His card is better in every facet of the game for next year, and there is enough difference to believe that, with normal progression from Longoria and normal regression from A-Rod, the cards probably won't meet in value until 2011 or so. I have Longoria on my team now, and the only 3B I would trade him straight up for is A-Rod.
Would that make Cliff Floyd God?
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