I'm curious what people think, too. Here's what second basemen have done from 31-35.

A follow up question: which teams would be major suitors for O-Dawg's services after 2008? The top spenders are out (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets) are out, but enough middle payroll teams might be interested in his services: Nats, Giants, Dodgers, Cards, Cubs (if they fail to acquire Roberts) and that's just the National League...

I'm curious what people think, too. Here's what PI says about 2B from 31-35.

I could see a Ray Durham like performance over the next 4 years...

I could see a Ray Durham like performance over the next 4 years...

Is O-Dawg's glove still good? I wouldn't want to sign him for four years, but if you guys don't have a replacement lined up and you can get him for Phillips or slightly more money, it's probably one of the best options out there, unless you're going to make a run at Brian Roberts, which is also risky.

I think it really depends on Bonifacio's season this year. I think if the D'Backs are going to operate near the budget they have been, Hudson's a luxury they can't really afford long term. At least not at the salary they're talking about.

Robert you need to re run that report.

Hudson's "baseball age" was 29 last year. He turned 30 in December and thats his baseball age for 2008. So he will be 31,32,33,34 for the duration of a 4 year deal from 2009-2012. There is no way the D backs would sign him for longer than that. So I would re run that report to show ages 31-34, instead of 31-35.

My overall guesses are this:

Hudson and his agent's starting point was to ask for 5 years, 60 million.
The D backs were probably offering 3 years, 30 million, same as they gave to Byrnes.

The D Backs might be able to split the difference on the years, and offer the 4th year, but I seriously doubt they would split the difference on the money and guarantee 45. I would think their upper limit on guaranteed dollars is somewhere around 36-40. If it takes more than 40, they'll pass, I'm pretty sure.

So to put a finer point on the question, would you give Hudson a 4 yr 40 million contract?

with another typical season - he was on his way to career highs in several offensive categories before missing the final month with a thumb injury
So if I read this right, he 1) gets injured every September 2) he continually set career highs in several offensive categories. I wanted to scoff at the writing, but I did some research and swallowed my scoff.

ODog has played more than 142 games once, so I guess he gets nicked most years

His BA has gone up every year since he's been a regular -- a whopping 26 points over 5 years but it matches the criteria
For counting stats, I boosted his numbers by 1/7, assuming he missed about 1/8 of the schedule
He was on a pace for record # of 3B (10 vs. 9)
RBI: 72-67 (would have been 5th straight year of career high)
SB: 11-9 (set career highs 4 of 5 years)
BB: 77-61 (career high 2 years in a row)
OBP: .376 - .354 (ditto)
OPS+: 106 - 102 (ditto)

So what the writer said made sense, sort of. I forgot how nice of a year O-Dog had in 2007. Proclaim his team as the team to beat and boost the offense a bit and he could be MVP.

Though it does seem strange for the D'Backs to unload both Callapso and Richar if they weren't planning on keeping Hudson around for a while.

I would definitely give Hudson 4 years $40 million, but I'm a huge O-Dawg fan. He's probably one of my favorite non-Royals players in baseball.

So to put a finer point on the question, would you give Hudson a 4 yr 40 million contract?

No, and I don't think he would get that in the open market. Does any 2nd baseman make $10MM other than Utley?

As a point of reference, Castillo just signed a 4 year deal for $25MM.

Is O-Dawg's glove still good?

UZR per 150 over the years:
2003: +9
2004: +8
2005: +21
2006: +5
2007: +28 (through June).

HERE is a revised version of the report Robert ran, but showing ages 31-34 instead of through age 35. Since I lopped off a year, I reduced the PA minimum from 2000 to 1600

Yes, I think Hudson merits 4/40M. And yes, Omar should ship Castillo out in a second if he had a shot at Hudson.

Nats, Giants, Dodgers, Cards, Cubs

Nats have a glut of mediocre middle infielders, and I don't see them making a splash when they have other needs.
Giants : pass.
Dodgers : Hu / Young should be up and running
Cards might bite, they like vets.
Cubs will bite if Hendry is around.
Rockies if their prospect doesn't work out.
In the AL,
Rays and Twins.
White Sox are the Giants of the AL. And that is not meant to be complimentary!

UZR per 150 over the years:
2003: +9
2004: +8
2005: +21
2006: +5
2007: +28 (through June).

Yeah, I'd sign him to a four year, 40 million dollar contract.

No, and I don't think he would get that in the open market. Does any 2nd baseman make $10MM other than Utley?

As a point of reference, Castillo just signed a 4 year deal for $25MM.

You might be right, but I am also pretty certain that Hudson's perceived market value is higher than Castillo's.

Also, I think you need to look at Utley's contract in the context of what he got for the FREE AGENCY years. He wouldn't have been a free agent until 2010. For the 4 years starting in 2010, Utley is getting 15 million per year. If he is worth 15 million, surely Hudson and his agent will try to make a case that Hudson is worth 2/3 of what Utley is getting. I know people think WARP is crap because they don't like the defense side of things...but just for arguments sake, here is the WARP comparison

yr----Utley----Hudson
07----9.8------7.3
06----7.7------7.2
05----7.6------5.5

Utley is only 1 year younger than Hudson. If he is worth 15 million through his FA years, then Hudson is worth 10 million....or at least so the argument goes.

O-Dawg is great. He's the NL's Mark Ellis. I dig both of 'em. 4 and 40 sounds about right.

For an interesting comp, Mark Ellis also is an FA after 2008. Ellis is about 6 months older than Hudson.

Ellis has a career 100 OPS+, Hudson 97. Neither has a skewed OPS: Ellis 340 OBP, Hudson 343 OBP.

Both appear to be very good, or better, defensive 2Bs.

If he is worth 15 million through his FA years, then Hudson is worth 10 million....or at least so the argument goes.

I think the gap is a lot bigger than that.

PECOTA projected MORP

Utley from 2010-2013: $50.8MM ($12.7MM/yr)
Hudson from 2009-2012: $24.7MM ($6.2MM/yr)

If Hudson really gets 4/$40MM next year, I'd rather sign Mark Ellis for a lot less.

FWIW, Hudson's 4 closest comps at BP are Mark Mclemore, Bill Mueller, Ron Oester, & Tony Fernandez.

McLemore took a lot of walks from ages 31-35, but of course had no pop. Hudson has shown an ability to draw ever increasing walks the last few years. I like the Mueller comp plenty. He put up some excellent offensive seasons from age 32-34. Oester not so much

His PA's are projected to gradually decline from 570 in 2008 to 409 in 2012.
His EQA is projected to be in a range .257-.262, with surprisingly the .262 coming in 2012.
Of course his defense declines a little each year, but doesn't turn negative until 2012.

I realize projections that far out are pretty meaningless.

The Cubs pay through the nose to acquire a 2B with most likely his best years in the rear view mirror?

Never happen.

Nats, Giants, Dodgers, Cards, Cubs

Nats have a glut of mediocre middle infielders, and I don't see them making a splash when they have other needs.
Giants : pass.
Dodgers : Hu / Young should be up and running
Cards might bite, they like vets.
Cubs will bite if Hendry is around.
Rockies if their prospect doesn't work out.
In the AL,
Rays and Twins.
White Sox are the Giants of the AL. And that is not meant to be complimentary!

What about the Brew Crew when Weeks finally moves to the outfield?

I would definitely give Hudson 4 years $40 million, but I'm a huge O-Dawg fan. He's probably one of my favorite non-Royals players in baseball.

Me too. If it wouldn't have involved Omar trading with Byrnes, I wanted him long-term way more than Castillo, who seems about one bad turn at first away from being totally worthless. If you put Hudson and Reyes on the same team though, there'd never be a moment of silence...

If AZ can hang onto him they should. He's a good player and deserves a nice payday. Can we call the Jays-D-Backs deal a win-win in light of Hill's development and Glaus being fairly healthy?

I think this is exactly the sort of contract Arizona needs to avoid. Hudson is a good, not great, ballplayer entering his decline years at a position that is particularly unfriendly to players in their 30s. He's not a good risk for Arizona. I don't think this is a situation where they should pay market value for a non-star.

I haven't seen the numbers on the Phillips contract I don't think, but his FA year must be priced at about $9-10 M. I'd rather have Hudson ... but the Reds signed Phillips as though he were Hudson.

But no, I wouldn't give him 4/40 because 2B tend not to age well. I'm not sure I'd give him 3/30. And if the DBacks are out of it, I'd see what I could get at the trading deadline.

From Cots:
Note: ML service: 3.022, so "FA years" are 2011 and 2012

Brandon Phillips 2b
4 years/$27M (2008-11), plus 2012 club option

* re-signed 2/15/08 (avoided arbitration, $4.2M-$2.7M)
* $0.75M signing bonus
* 08:$2.75M, 09:$4.75M, 10:$6.75M, 11:$11M, 12:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
* escalators based on awards may bring total package to $43.25M
* if traded, 2012 club option becomes mutual option

Ellis is probably going to be cheaper than Hudson, getting less years and money. He might be a better fit for the D-Backs than Hudson.

I know people think WARP is crap because they don't like the defense side of things...but just for arguments sake, here is the WARP comparison

This is a great example of why WARP is crap. BP has Utley as 10 runs below average with the glove over the past three years. Every other system has Utley as one of the best defenders in baseball.

Mark Ellis is a much better comparison, as they're similar with both the glove and the stick. PECOTA projects Ellis for a .273 EqA, compared to .260 for Hudson.

Here are their UZR/150:


They're close, but I'd take Ellis.

Ellis is probably going to be cheaper than Hudson, getting less years and money. He might be a better fit for the D-Backs than Hudson.

I don't know if Ellis will be available. The A's know how good he is and I bet they resign him before the year's out if nobody blows them away with a trade offer.

PECOTA's EQA projections for Ellis from 2009-2012: 274, 270, 266, 268.

I don't know if Ellis will be available. The A's know how good he is and I bet they resign him before the year's out if nobody blows them away with a trade offer.

I figured that the A's would rather take the draft picks. Another good year and Ellis is a type-A free agent.

I wonder if Ellis's agent knows how valuable he is. He would likely be priced above the A's budget if he were to hit the open market.

The Dbacks are quite high on Bonifacio, so much so that they traded away Callaspo when the Royals offered a solid young arm in return. The Dbacks scouts really like Bonifacio's speed and defense around the bag. Incidentally, PECOTA is pretty bullish on EBone as well, especially given his BB/K rates in the minors coming into this season. And, fwiw, EBone impressed a decent number of scouts in the Dominican this winter...

I'd bet a lot of money that O-Dawg will get a bigger contract than MEllis this coming offseason.

Voros, the Dbacks shipped out Richar because they didn't like his defense, and didn't think he would hit better than Callaspo, for example. And then Callaspo made himself a persona non grata by beating his wife, and the Dbacks actually really care about that stuff. Plus, the Royals offered a really nice player in Buckner for Callaspo.

I think the Dbacks will wait and see what EBone and CBurke do this winter. From reading the tea leaves, the FO seems higher on EBone than on CBurke... but one of the reasons Callaspo was traded was the pending arrival of Burke from Houston. Whether Burke can outplay EBone for the starting job next year remains to be seen. I'm skeptical.

I really like O-Dawg, but I don't see him remaining in AZ past this year. He's going to cost too much, he won't settle for a discounted deal, and the Dbacks will get 2 draft picks in the 2009 draft. As great as he's been, the Dbacks have to allocate their money differently, and they can put up with EBone's offense at 2b given their projected roster.

And if the DBacks are out of it, I'd see what I could get at the trading deadline.

Walt, what have we ever done to you to deserve such disrespect? As I said, O-dawg would bring 2 draft picks in the 2009 draft. That's definitely worth keeping in mind.

I wonder if Ellis's agent knows how valuable he is. He would likely be priced above the A's budget if he were to hit the open market.

I'm sure he does and I bet he's frustrated as hell by how under the radar Ellis is. No gold gloves, no all star teams, no national publicity at all. He's like the invisible man. It gives me hope the A's can sign him again. They have the money and he's not blocking anybody. I'd prefer they keep him around.

I'd bet a lot of money that O-Dawg will get a bigger contract than MEllis this coming offseason.

I agree. Not because he's heads and tails better than Ellis, but the perception is he's much better. Ellis is likely to be a pretty good bargain for someone.

Not because he's heads and tails better than Ellis, but the perception is he's much better.

It's all because of the Arizona media hype.

The liberal media has a bias in wanting to see an African-American second baseman succeed.

/Rush Limbaugh

If Hudson really gets 4/$40MM next year, I'd rather sign Mark Ellis for a lot less.

Me too. I don't think either one gets more than 4 years/ 32 million. Second baseman is the lowest paid position on the diamond.

I'm sure he does and I bet he's frustrated as hell by how under the radar Ellis is.

It's pretty cool that he was the least acclaimed player in a 3 team, 7 player blockbuster trade, yet he's argably had the best post-trade career of anyone involved: Damon, Grieve, Roberto Hernandez, Angel Berroa, Cory Lidle, AJ Hinch. Damon's the only one with a case.

Me too. I don't think either one gets more than 4 years/ 32 million

I think Hudson believes he'll get more than that. He's shooting for at least $40m/4years. Given how weak the free agent class at 2b will be next offseason, I think he gets that easily.

I don't know if he gets that "easily". So many factors, not the least of which are his 2008 health and performance. A lot can happen either way. If he puts up a .820 OPS and is healthy all year, he'll get MORE than 4/40 on the open market. But if he is in the .775 range and misses 20 games, he'd be wise to accept 4/32

From what little we saw of Bonifacio last year it sure _looks_ like he's got a serious glove.

But he's got a career 0.694 OPS in the minors with his lone big offensive year coming in Lancaster. He looks to have very little power.

His glove is almost certainly going to have to carry his stick (at least in the reasonably near future), the big question is how much will it need to?

I really don't see the big fuss about two midrange draft picks. I think people around here really overvalue these.

If you are getting them for a middle reliever or a fringey kind of player that is one thing, but I don't see how they should influence the discussion for a solid starting-caliber player

From what little we saw of Bonifacio last year it sure _looks_ like he's got a serious glove.

But he's got a career 0.694 OPS in the minors with his lone big offensive year coming in Lancaster. He looks to have very little power.

His glove is almost certainly going to have to carry his stick (at least in the reasonably near future), the big question is how much will it need to?

I'm with you Voros. I think there are serious questions about whether Bonafacio will even hit enough to be utility guy let alone a starter. Strikes out a lot. Doesn't walk much. Has ZERO power. So so Line Drive rates. Not a good combination. The Scouts love this guy, but I just don't see it. He's incredibly fast (they say faster than Upton) and has a good glove. But he can't hit. It would be one thing if he were 19 or 20, but he turns 23 on April 23rd.

I agree with you, Shoe - I don't get what 'they' (the guys high on EBone) see. I have said for some time now that he is Jerry Gil with better speed. (Not that Gil's speed wasn't really good!) Great glove. No stick. I frankly doubt he gets as much service time as Jerry did because the competition for roster spots is greater than Gil faced.

Of course, Richar wasn't the answer, either. . . so letting him go was no great shakes. But if they let Hudson walk (which is probably the correct move, given his likely contract demands), we're down to Burke or EBone. Yikes.

How 'bout we get Tracy healthy and move Reynolds over to the keystone? (there go the ERAs)

I can see a situation where the org feels they have little choice but to reach a compromise with Hudson. I could tolerate four years. But this (2B) strikes me as one of the greater problems on their radar. I suppose they can always hope to be able to sign Ellis.

Some BB/K projections from PECOTA for 2008

CYoung, 53bb/105k in 539 pa
JUpton, 64bb/118K in 642 pa
MReynolds, 52bb//148K in 579 pa
EBonifacio, 50bb/108K in 619 pa

IOW, PECOTA sees EBone striking out a bit, but not outrageously so, and sees a healthy spike in his walk total. Mind you, these are projections for him in the majors in 2008; he will get another full season in AAA (barring injury) to improve his hitting.

Of course, PECOTA sees him hitting .264/.327/.361 this year, so he clearly isn't ready, but if he indeed makes progress in his plate discipline and improves his walk rate, his speed may allow him to post pretty decent batting averages in the majors in 09 and beyond.

If he's really good defensively at 2b, the Dbacks can easily afford to carry him there, if they can receive significant offensive production elsewhere--which they should, assuming the rest of the young hitters mature/improve as expected over the next 2-3 years.

On the other hand, Dan's ZiPs gives Bonifacio a line of .245/.282/.312, with 27bb/112K in 564 pa.

So either Dan is mean, or PECOTA is on crack, or both. But dammit, I need one, only one, middle infielder to come out of the AZ farm system and be better than Pedroia (not counting Uggla)...

If E Bone has a minor league track record like THIS then I'd believe we might have something. But when you compare those two players, you realize just how far short the performance has fallen.

A nice story by Nick Piecoro on Hudson's gut-wrenching offseason.

Hudson smiles through pain

And yet, lurking just behind all that energy and effervescence, is a solemn and scared young man who is still dealing with nearly losing his mother a couple of months ago. Mae Hudson nearly died following an intestinal eruption that led to massive internal bleeding.

"Actually, we lost her twice," Orlando Hudson said. "Each time, the doctors were able to bring her back. But, yes, I lost my mama twice."

Baseball is his Aeroplane...

Ah, second basemen. The free agent market is likely to be unkind to both Hudson and Ellis, preferring lesser talents like Carlos Lee, Gary Matthews Jr. and Torii Hunter. So, what is a stat-savvy GM like Byrnes to do?

Watch Bonifacio this year. If he hits .290/.330/.380 in triple A, you want to sign Hudson or Ellis (presumably Hudson) at a compromise figure (maybe 3 years $33 million). If Bonifacio makes strides on his W/K, then maybe you let Hudson walk, and probably get $10 million per on the open market.