Pudge won't get there, but then again, who will? Here's the current list of everybody who is even halfway there(age):

1. Ken Griffey (39) 2721
2. Omar Vizquel (42) 2678
3. Gary Sheffield (40) 2659
4. Ivan Rodriguez (37) 2658
5. Derek Jeter (35) 2623 - Yes
6. Luis Gonzalez (41) 2591
7. Alex Rodriguez (33) 2438 - Yes
8. Manny Ramirez (37) 2424 - Maybe
9. Garret Anderson (37) 2419
10. Johnny Damon (35) 2349 - Unlikely, but...
11. Chipper Jones (37) 2341
12. Vladimir Guerrero (34) 2174
13. Moises Alou (42) 2134
14. Edgar Renteria (33) 2129 - he's only 33?! He has this many hits?! But, no...
15. Jim Thome (38) 2092
16. Ray Durham (37) 2054
17. Carlos Delgado (37) 2038
18. Todd Helton (35) 2036
19. Jason Kendall (35) 2022
20. Bobby Abreu (35) 2018
21. Miguel Tejada (35) 2011
22. Mark Grudzielanek (39) 2010
23. Ichiro Suzuki (35) 1911 - Until he doesn't get 200-220 hits a season, it's possible...
24. Brian Giles (38) 1897
25. Magglio Ordonez (35) 1892
26. Jim Edmonds (39) 1881
27. Jason Giambi (38) 1858
28. Andruw Jones (32) 1747 - Geez, will he get to 1800 hits?
29. Scott Rolen (34) 1744
30. Luis Castillo (33) 1743
31. Jermaine Dye (35) 1719
32. Nomar Garciaparra (35) 1717
33. Carlos Lee (33) 1713
34. Orlando Cabrera (34) 1702
35. Mark Loretta (37) 1695
36. Carlos Beltran (32) 1686
37. Darin Erstad (35) 1682
38. Adrian Beltre (30) 1656
39. Shannon Stewart (35) 1653
40. Randy Winn (35) 1637
41. Juan Pierre (31) 1620
42. Paul Konerko (33) 1614
43. Albert Pujols (29) 1613 - He can do anything.
44. Derrek Lee (33) 1603
45. Michael Young (32) 1576
46. Rich Aurilia (37) 1570
47. Placido Polanco (33) 1564
48. Brad Ausmus (40) 1550
49. Mark Kotsay (33) 1534
50. Mike Cameron (36) 1533
51. Sean Casey (34) 1531
52. Jimmy Rollins (30) 1524 - Maybe?
Jose Vidro (34) 1524
54. Rondell White (37) 1519
55. Mike Lowell (35) 1513
56. Lance Berkman (33) 1509

The only other guys in the top 100 to even throw out there:
83. Carl Crawford (27) 1205 L
99. Miguel Cabrera (26) 1111 R

Out of top 100 (which takes you to anybody currently with over 1100 hits), all I can see is Jeter, ARod, Pujols, maybe Ichiro, maybe Damon or Manny if one of them pulls a "I'm playing until 42 no matter what". Jimmy Rollins? Crawford? Cabrera doesn't seem to have the physique to stick around another 14 years.

Is it just me, or are we, at this snapshot in time, in a really boring moment in history as it relates to a "3000 hit watch"?

There's been 27 3,000 hit guys in the history of the game (going back more than a century)-there's a 128 year gap between the first 3,000 hit guy (Cap Anson) and Pujols. If we assume that you need to play ~20 years to get 3,000 (probably 18 or so in reality), then we'd expect there to be between 4 and 5 active 3,000 hit members at any one time (again, not considering sizes of leagues). Given Jeter, ARod & Pujols as mortal locks, we only need 2 twentysomethings to get there to so as to match historical averages (Pedroia?).

Also, there is no such thing as an exciting moment in history as it relates to the 3000 hit watch, imo.

Without a doubt, Pudge is on a mission to get 3,000 hits. It wouldn’t surprise me if he does.

I'll be pretty surprised if he's still in the league next season.

He started off rather well, but as soon as June came his numbers began dropping like a stone, which is more or less exactly what I expected would happen, and he's getting more and more days off as a result.

I agree about Pudge. Part of his problem is that the only role where he could remain effective for the rest of this year and beyond would be one where he was a part-time catcher, extra bat off the bench, etc. You're not getting 300 more hits that way...a little like Rusty Staub was by 1981...

Rodriguez looks in terrific shape, as always.

Hence the nickname "Pudge".

DB

Pudge had to wait until the end of the WBC, where he put on a good show, to get a contract this year. He's hitting worse this year than he did last yar (though not as bad as in his month+ with the Yankees).

I figured he would get one more year -- this year -- to break the games caught record, given the lack of good hitting catchers and the number of GMs willing to take a chance on a bounce back -- and he was hitting pretty good for a catcher while he was with Detroit last year.

He MIGHT find somebody else willing to take a shot at one more year, but unless he suddenly remembers where he misplaced his vitamins, it is going to be hard. After that, it is probably going to be impossible.

Pudge can find a back up job next year, or heck, even the Astros might take him back considering that they have no catching prospects worth a damn anywhere near MLB level.

Pudge can find a back up job next year

But would he take a back up job?

Assuming Griffey retires after this season, if Jeter stays healthy he's likely to be the active hits leader going into 2010. At age 35, no less.

Don't forget, this is the Astros. From 2001-2008, Brad Ausmus got 746 hits in an Astros uniform without once matching Pudge's current 82 OPS+. Most years, Ausmus wasn't even close. Let's see how Pudge finishes the season before writing off his future.

Jimmy Rollins? Crawford? Cabrera doesn't seem to have the physique to stick around another 14 years.

Don't overlook Beltran. A longshot (they almost all are) but he'll probably still be playing when he's 40.

1. Rose
2. Cobb
3. Aaron
4. Musial
5. Speaker
6. Yastrzemski
7. Anson
8. Wagner
9. Molitor
10. Collins
11. Mays
12. Murray
13. Lajoie
14. Ripken
15. Brett
16. Waner
17. Yount
18. Gwynn
19. Winfield
(Players with less than 3100 hits)
20. Biggio
21. Henderson
22. Carew
23. Brock
24. Palmeiro
25. Boggs
26. Kaline
27. Clemente

About one-fifth of the list (Clemente excluded) just held on long enough to get there.

I don't know the average age of the audience here at BTF, but I am 35 years old, and have been a baseball fan since 1981. I have seen 14 of the 27 members of the 3000-hit club play (granted, their careers extend back as far as the early 1960s, in Yaz's case), slightly more than half the total list.

My fandom represents about 28 years of baseball's history - barely one-fifth of baseball's history. It strikes me as unusual that a 35-year-old baseball fan would have seen 12 hitters get number 3,000, and seen 2 others (Yaz and Rose) who got #3000 earlier, but were still active in the 1980s.

I don't necessarily think there is some big-picture reason for the doubling of the list in a short amount of time...but if somebody had this same discussion in 1980, I wonder how many players we would've thought would get to 3000...

I'm still upset about Bonds getting screwed out of 3,000 hits. He was only 65 away.

Balboni, I'm not running any calculations, but at least part of that is because since 1961 there have been more games and more teams (more players) than there were before.

Also, Mashimoro posted the "hanging on" list. For a lot of baseball history the career numbers were not so well known. It's possible some players retired without realizing they were so close to 3000 hits, or without caring.

Also, Mashimoro posted the "hanging on" list. For a lot of baseball history the career numbers were not so well known. It's possible some players retired without realizing they were so close to 3000 hits, or without caring.

That's what happened with Sam Rice - they added up his career numbers, and offered him the chance to come back for the last 13 hits he needed, and he declined the offer.

Rafael Palmeiro (108 OPS+, left rather suddenly) should not be considered one of the hangers-on. Carew is also a problematic example. And a Rickey is a Rickey is a Rickey; if you told him he could play next year but he had to go 0-500, he'd probably agree.

I'm still upset about Bonds getting screwed out of 3,000 hits. He was only 65 away.

Don't forget the 1,996 RBI. Of course, the unturned odometer is as much a function of the ludicrous walk totals as the blackballing.

Don't overlook Beltran. A longshot (they almost all are) but he'll probably still be playing when he's 40.

He's got no chance. Getting base hits is about the only thing Beltran's not great at--aside from this season, since leaving Kansas City, he's had unremarkable batting averages and walks a lot. This season he's on pace for 177 hits--which he's not going to reach, given his injury and the fact that his average is all but certain to drop off. But let's be generous and give him that. That would have him averaging 159 hits his first five seasons with the Mets--so to get to 3,000 hits, he'd need to keep up that pace for about eight more seasons, and he's 32 now. So not only would he need to play until he's 40, he'd need to maintain his current level of production until he's 40. Not gonna happen.

Isn't Renteria actually a year younger than listed? Or has that been fixed by now?

So not only would he need to play until he's 40, he'd need to maintain his current level of production until he's 40. Not gonna happen.

Why not? 21 players -- including Finley (264 BA), Winfield (275) and Biggio (269) -- have amassed 1250+ hits from age 33+. Vizquel (270), Parker (273), Palmeiro (281) and Perez (272) are between 1200 and 1250.

Of course his odds aren't good. Of course the odds are that Pujols 2nd half career is more like Thomas or Foxx than Aaron too. But if Beltran finishes the year with 1700 hits (he needs only 14 more), he'll be just 92 short of Palmeiro, 61 short of Winfield, 51 short of Molitor, 50 short of Bonds, 20 more than Biggio, and 43 more than Carew. He's right in the mix. He's still good defensively, still a great baserunner, still maintaining his offensive production so he could age very well -- or he could keep missing 20+ games a season.

While I'm still not convinced that Beltran is a great candidate for 3000 hits, it is almost certainly true that there a couple of players that we don't see getting there that will. Last night, I took a quick look at the 1984 Baseball Abstract, where Bill James did a write up of his "Favorite Toy". IIRC, there were 11 players who ended up getting 3000 hits on the list, but only a few of them (Carew, Yount) appeared in strong position to do it by the end of 1983. Many others were on the list, but with low probability (for example: Brett, because of injuries; Boggs, because of a late start; Molitor, because it was impossible to project the length or improvement in his performance). Still others, like Tim Raines, Jim Rice, and Al Oliver, were among the best positioned, at that time.

So, it's fun to watch, but there's almost certainly somebody we're not seeing at all who will make a run (Carl Crawford?) The problem with the list above is that most of the people above 2000 hits are 35 or older, so they just don't have a lot time left to make up ground. Crawford is good, young, and has skills that could age well.

Looking at Balboni's list there are probably a couple other players who should rate at least a maybe. At 37 Chipper Jones needs 659. If he plays a couple more seasons and finds himself close to of 2800 he might stay to get there. He has lost time to injuries, but hasn't appeared to have lost bat speed.

The whole 3,000 hits thing is meaningless except being a nice round number. Frank Robinson despite being 14 shy of 3,000 was a better player than some guys who stumbled across that line. I won't use the little league adage that a walk is as good as a hit, but a guy who averages 150 hits and 110 walks is contributing as much or more than the guy getting 190 hits and 50 walks. Thing is the guy with over 100 walks each year (like Bonds) will have a much harder time reaching 3,000 hits. Maybe a better example than Bonds would be Thome. Thome won't get anywhere near 3,000 hits. However, he has around 1,600 walks and will be in the top ten all time by end of this season.

True about the 3,000 mark - any list of hitters that doesn't include Ted Williams, Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds is not the "all time offense" list...but part of the fun of baseball is how much of it is quantifiable, and players' 15-20 year "chase" for 3,000 is a fun thing to watch as the years pass.

I don't know what Favorite Toy would say, but I think Damon has a decent shot.

He'll be at something like 2,425 at the end of this season. He's been pretty durable, hits for a decent average, still seems to have enough speed that teams are likely to bat him #1 or #2, and walks enough to help his value but not so much as to limit his opportunities. He'll need to play 4 more full seasons to get there, doesn't seem out of the question.

Pudge can find a back up job next year, or heck, even the Astros might take him back considering that they have no catching prospects worth a damn anywhere near MLB level.

Is a .235 wOBA in 171 PA enough to finish off J.R. Towles as a prospect? He hit well in AAA Round Rock last year (.372 wOBA) and has hit even better this season in the minors (.407 wOBA)--Clay Davenport's MLEs project that his .302/.409/.491 batting line in 129 PA at Round Rock translates to a .275/.375/.486 line in the MLB, FWIW. That's not a large sample, but considering this year's performance is similar to last it's another 200 PA establishing Towles' potential to be a MLB hitter.

I remember a Soto v. Towles post at John Sickels' blog prior to last year. That battle ended up a little one-sided. . . .

However, he has around 1,600 walks and will be in the top ten all time by end of this season.

I did not realize that about Thome. So then I looked at the list, and realized, for the first time, that Joe Morgan was third all time in walks at the time of his retirement, behind Ruth and Williams.

I don't know what Favorite Toy would say, but I think Damon has a decent shot.

It would say 15% coming into this season.

Up to 19% if he continues his current pace the rest of the season.

I am 35 years old, and have been a baseball fan since 1981. I have seen 14 of the 27 members of the 3000-hit club play

That's pretty impressive. I have only seen 14, and I have been going to games since 1964. I missed Kaline and Yastrzemski because I was solely an NL fan during their careers, most of that in an NL-only city (Philadelphia,); I missed Biggio for the reverse reason after I'd moved to Texas later on (well, also because I was too lazy to drag myself out to the Silver Boot games in Arlington or whatever the hell they're called).

Tiboreau Posted: June 29, 2009 at 10:01 AM (#3236493)

Pudge can find a back up job next year, or heck, even the Astros might take him back considering that they have no catching prospects worth a damn anywhere near MLB level.

Is a .235 wOBA in 171 PA enough to finish off J.R. Towles as a prospect? He hit well in AAA Round Rock last year (.372 wOBA) and has hit even better this season in the minors (.407 wOBA)--Clay Davenport's MLEs project that his .302/.409/.491 batting line in 129 PA at Round Rock translates to a .275/.375/.486 line in the MLB, FWIW. That's not a large sample, but considering this year's performance is similar to last it's another 200 PA establishing Towles' potential to be a MLB hitter.

- towles has exactly ZERO future with the astros as long as cooper is the manager. he HATES towles and has made that MORE than clear. cooper doesn't want to have to play ANY ballplayer who isn't a Proven Veteran. he REALLY is what all yall thought dusty baker was. he made towles so damm nervous the guy could hardly do anything. he deserves another shot - he is a very good defensive guy too and some other team ought to trade for him.

and edwin maysonet, too

Interesting, thanks for the answer baseball chick.