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Monday, April 28, 2008

Fangraphs: Cameron: Cust Cussing

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When you strike out as much as Cust does, you have to be amazing when you make contact. Last year, Cust was, posting a .366 batting average on balls in play and whacking 26 home runs in 124 games. So far, in April, Cust’s batting average on balls in play is down to .242, and only one of his seven hits are home runs. Even when he hits the ball, it’s not going anywhere, and that’s made him a significant liability at the plate during the first month of the season. With the signing of Frank Thomas to be the regular DH, Cust is going to have to play left field to keep his spot in the line-up. Unfortunately for him and the A’s, he’s about as good at that as he is at making contact. He might be the worst defensive player in baseball - if he’s not, he’s close.

Add it all up, and the A’s have a guy who has to torch the ball when he hits it in order to be a valuable player, and when he’s not driving the ball, he’s the least productive regular in the major leagues. Due to his defensive problems, it’s going to be harder and harder for the A’s to justify penciling him into the line-up if he doesn’t start producing better results when he makes contact. The A’s are surprising a lot of people by standing at 16-10 through 26 games, but they’re not going to be able to stick with Cust killing them in the field and at the plate forever.

Repoz Posted: April 28, 2008 at 09:58 AM | 13 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralOakland

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   1. Danny Posted: April 28, 2008 at 11:37 AM (#2761321)
Cameron's always been a huge Cust fan:

Dave Says:

Cust is this year’s Chris Shelton. They’ll stop throwing him fastballs pretty soon, and he’ll be back in the minors by the end of the year.
May 13th, 2007 at 9:39 pm


Cust from May 14th to the end of the year: .249/.404/.463 in 475 PA.

That said, he's useless unelss he starts hitting dingers again. His BABIP won't stay down at .250, but his regression back to a .300+ BABIP will have to be coupled with longballs to make him worthwhile in LF.
   2. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: April 28, 2008 at 11:54 AM (#2761345)
How soon before the A's cut him? He seems a bit redundant now that Thomas is on board. It seems like Oakland got the one really good year we all knew he was capable of and now that the league has caught up with him, it seems like they'd be squeezing blood from a stone.
   3. Winnie Cooperstown Posted: April 28, 2008 at 12:27 PM (#2761380)
A's won't cut him, if for no other reason than that they have him cheaply for some time yet. How dumb would it be to cut Cust now because you're a notional contender in April in favor of Frank Thomas? (Answer: very dumb.) Let him ride out his slump; if the A's fall back in the race, keep playing him and see what you've got. If they're in the race in July or August, then they might consider benching him. A poor year at the plate from Cust is not going to be the only thing holding the A's back this year.

How deep is this slump? Cust's Marcel projection entering the year was .257/.383/.464; today it stands at .248/.382/.442. Yes, that's a pretty significant drop in his true talent AVG and ISO; yes, the A's would be stupid to cut that production.
   4. Danny Posted: April 28, 2008 at 12:36 PM (#2761389)
If Thomas keeps the DH job, the only way Cust goes is if they find a better option in LF against RHP. When Buck comes back, Cust's competition is three RHB: Denorfia, Emil Brown, and Rajai Davis. The only way I could see him being cut is if he's still slumping in June, the A's call up CarGo to play CF, Buck's healthy enough to play RF, and they move Sweeney to LF. Even then, they'd probably keep him around as a PH.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 28, 2008 at 12:47 PM (#2761396)
Cust's always going to have stretches where he looks horrific - he had those last year, too.
   6. Winnie Cooperstown Posted: April 28, 2008 at 12:58 PM (#2761415)
Indeed, he didn't look so hot last July either (warning: selective endpoints).
   7. Voros Posted: April 28, 2008 at 07:04 PM (#2761808)
Cust may (or may not) get caught up to, whatever it is he happens to be hitting right now has next to nothing to do with it though.

I hate April.
   8. Carmona My House (Crispix Attacks) Posted: April 28, 2008 at 07:08 PM (#2761812)
If Cust keeps playing every day, Ryan Howard will have no shame in ending the season with 230 strikeouts, because he will have a compatriot doing so in the other league.

And vice versa.
   9. Elston Gunn Posted: April 28, 2008 at 07:20 PM (#2761821)
There was an HT article a while back that used Pitch F/X to basically say that he's ridiculous when he gets a fastball and horrible against any other type of pitch (if it's a strike). We can all see that too, I guess, but I'm worried that pitchers may have realized, "Hey, let's just not throw this guy fastballs," and Cust's going to have to make a major adjustment to continue being successful.

That said, the A's won't and shouldn't cut him because he's cheap and under control for a while, and a) it could be just a slump, which all guys that make so little contact are going to go through or b) he might make that adjustment. The only risk for them is a 25 man spot that could go to someone else, and they can always cut Brown first, who's not that great now and not a part of their future.
   10. Voros Posted: May 03, 2008 at 12:03 AM (#2767555)
As an update, Cust is 7-13 with two home runs since this article was published. His OPS on the year is now .807 with a .420 OBP.
   11. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 03, 2008 at 12:12 AM (#2767567)
If Cust bats .538 the rest of the year, will he be named MVP? If he bats .538 for the rest of his career, will be be a first ballot HOFer?
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: May 03, 2008 at 12:18 AM (#2767569)
Does Cust ever have a stretch where he's simply a plain old 120 OPS+ guy? It's like his true level of ability alternates between 60 and 180.

I have to admit I'm strongly rooting for the A's - the high A's projection was probably the biggest deviation ZiPS had compared to the other simulations, so I'd much like this one to work out.
   13. Voros Posted: May 03, 2008 at 01:29 AM (#2767622)
Dan,

I think that's true of a lot of guys particularly because of Home Runs. A guy who hits 40 homers only hits one every four games, but they are so valuable as events that a couple in a week usually make for some gaudy OPS numbers.

Cust is closer to being a .160 hitter than he his a .500 hitter of course, but the point should have been he's not a .160 hitter either.
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