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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, February 04, 2010
The Tigers and Justin Verlander have agreed to a five-year, $80 million extension, a source told the Associated Press. Though not officially announced, the deal is expected to be completed before the end of the week. The deal both avoids arbitration and keeps Verlander in Detroit three years into his free agency.
While the extension was being negotiated, it was expected that Verlander would use Felix Hernandez’s five-year, $78 million contract as a template for what he wanted from Detroit. In the end, the Tigers went beyond the deal Seattle gave to Hernandez by $2 million to lock their ace up long-term.
That’s really the most surprising aspect of the signing; Hernandez is younger than Verlander (24 compared to Verlander’s 27) with a slight edge in every career stat except for won-loss record and a dominant 2009 season by Hernandez that was better than any Verlander’s put up to this point in his career. If anything, it seemed likely that Verlander’s deal would come in just under the $78 million that the Mariners gave Hernandez.
Thanks to The Barfoot Contessa.
Repoz
Posted: February 04, 2010 at 04:42 AM | 8 comment(s)
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Pitchers have different peaks from hitters, I think. Or there was some study to this effect.
$2 mil in the greater scheme of things is a pittance, and if that made their ace happy, and kept him in Detroit, more power to them. I can't see the Tigers willing to lose Verlander over an argument for 5/75 opposed to 5/80.
Here are the 2010 medians of those 3 projections systems:
FH Pitches Pitches
Age perStart Thrown
20 99 3056
21 100 2997
22 103 3193
23 107 3618
JV Pitches Pitches
Age perStart Thrown
23 99 2963
24 105 3354
25 107 3525
26 112 3921
Or is Hernandez assumed to be a couple years older than his official age?
I don't agree with this. Using Verlander's midpoint for this year (8.2)+13 for next year + 69/3 gets him just over 90/5. So, he gave up 2.5/year (on the high side) to lock it up two years out and be free again still in his 20s. He had to take that deal.
Verlander may have dug in to squeeze out every last dollar because he's less likely than Felix to have another huge contract.
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