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Saturday, July 05, 2008

FBG: AL Rookie of the Year–Ellsbury Versus Longoria

Not many left in the Eric Van de Kamp...not many at all.

Longoria has generated 5.0 WARP, or five wins above a replacement player. This is largely driven by stellar defense, as in his half season he has already saved 19 fielding runs above replacement. Ellsbury has generated 3.0 WARP, a full 2 wins worse than Longoria. This is not a small difference.

When looked at from a purely offensive level, we can use VORP or their Value Over Replacement Player metric. This metric measures the number of runs over a replacement player based on offense alone without defense. Longoria is ranked 51st in baseball with 21.1. Ellsbury is ranked 105 with a 13.5 VORP.

One last metric is EQA or Equivalent Average. This metric is a measure of the total offensive input per out, taking into account various normalizing factors. Longoria is 8th in the AL with a .306 EQA. Ellsbury is at .268.

This is pretty much a rout. It is Longoria by a large margin, and given the trends of both players, it may end up being an actual rout in the voting.

Repoz Posted: July 05, 2008 at 10:10 AM | 29 comment(s)
Related News: General, Boston, Tampa Bay

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1. Vegas Watch Posted: July 05, 2008 at 10:24 AM (#2844179)

Damn, Dewan has Longoria at +11, third in the majors (Rolen +20, Glaus +16). I hadn't realized he's been so good over there.

2. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 05, 2008 at 10:29 AM (#2844180)

It is Longoria by a large margin, and given the trends of both players, it may end up being an actual rout in the voting.

Well, Ellsbury plays the Yanks something like 10-12 more times this year, so that's about 30 bunts singles you have to add to his expected line.

3. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: July 05, 2008 at 10:52 AM (#2844185)

I cannot believe two teams passed on Longoria in the draft...
And I had dreams of him dropping all the way to 11

Let me guess, the Pirates were one of the teams that passed on him?

4. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 05, 2008 at 11:32 AM (#2844195)

Damn, Longoria's having a great year. That long-term contract is looking pretty sweet for Tampa right now.

5. Rich Posted: July 05, 2008 at 11:33 AM (#2844196)

Longoria is in a class by himself.

6. JJ1986 Posted: July 05, 2008 at 11:36 AM (#2844197)

Let me guess, the Pirates were one of the teams that passed on him?

They actually weren't. KC (Hochevar) and Colorado (Greg Reynolds) were.

7. John DiFool2 Posted: July 05, 2008 at 12:04 PM (#2844199)

No direct mention of Ellsbury's defensive prowess-RZR has him at .920 in left, and .951 in center (Coco's at .913), and 1.000 in right. Longoria so far has the better bat, but Ellsbury has been hitting into some bad luck-a higher LD% than in his hot '07 (22.5 vs. 18.8%) but a much lower BABIP (.300 vs. .380), tho a very high infield popup % of 19.4% may have something to do with that.

8. Fancy Pants Handle Posted: July 05, 2008 at 12:30 PM (#2844203)

Evan as a Red Sox supporter, I have to admitt that Longoria deserves the award as it stands, but I don't think it's quite a rout yet.

This is largely driven by stellar defense, as in his half season he has already saved 19 fielding runs above replacement.

That sentence is just completely misleading. Ellsbury's FRAR is 16 compared to Longoria's 19. Longoria's main advantage over Ellsbury is his power.

If you look at RZR numbers, Rolen is .861 Longoria is .725. That isn't evan close.

Ellsbury's .951 would actually lead all CF's if he had played enough innings in CF to qualify. His .920 would be second to only Matt Holliday's .925 in LF.

Comparing a top CF, who you can move around to the corner spots as you need, to a good, but not great 3B, I would give the point on defense to Ellsbury. Again Longoria definately deserves the mid-season rookie of the year award, but his defense is not the primary reason.

9. Padraic Posted: July 05, 2008 at 12:34 PM (#2844206)

Edit - Eh, never mind

10. Sidd [bleeping] Finch (SuperBaes) Posted: July 05, 2008 at 01:15 PM (#2844217)

Let me guess, the Pirates were one of the teams that passed on him?

They actually weren't. KC (Hochevar) and Colorado (Greg Reynolds) were.

Let's be fair: they took Brad Lincoln that year, over Tim Lincecum. I have a small aneurysm every time I hear Lincecum's name because of that.

11. Eddie Gaedel Posted: July 05, 2008 at 01:33 PM (#2844227)

I'm confused.

According to BP's stats, Longoria is 19 FRAR. His VORP is 21.1. My math has that equalling about 40 runs (about 4 wins, right?).

How is his overall WARP at 5.0?

12. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 05, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#2844232)

Let's be fair: they took Brad Lincoln that year, over Tim Lincecum. I have a small aneurysm every time I hear Lincecum's name because of that.

Aha, but the Rockies took Greg Reynolds over Longoria AND Lincecum.

Let's see how well he turns out.

13. Chuck Van Den Corput Posted: July 05, 2008 at 01:58 PM (#2844236)

Longoria is two full years younger than Ellsbury, so regardless of who may win the RoY award, Longoria has to be seen as having far greater longterm upside.

14. Elston Gunn Posted: July 05, 2008 at 02:44 PM (#2844250)

If I remember correctly, Longoria was considered a reach at #3 by just about everybody because scouts didn't think his bat would develop. I know it's fun to do the whole "look who we could have drafted thing" but to treat passing on Longoria as an obviously stupid move is second guessing of a pretty bad sort. We should be applauding the Rays, not making fun of the Royals and Rockies (though making fun of the Greg Reynolds choice is perfectly defensible--everyone knew that was stupid). The Rays also supposedly had a deal done with Lincecum if the Rox took Longo, so you've got to give them credit for knowing what they were doing.

Lincecum might be a different story, as, with no injury history, scouts basically just said his weird motion and smallness would mean he'd get hurt. I can't speak to the rationality of that opinion, but I would guess scouts have a bias toward big pitchers with traditional motions.

15. Herschel Pinkus Yerucham Shmoikel Krustofsky Posted: July 05, 2008 at 02:53 PM (#2844257)

Damn, Dewan has Longoria at +11, third in the majors (Rolen +20,Glaus +16 ). I hadn't realized he's been so good over there.

I generally think pretty highly of Dewan, but it's things like this that remind me not to put TOO much stock into defensive metrics just yet.

That having been said, Longoria > Ellsbury. And where's Joba in the ROY conversation?

16. Fancy Pants Handle Posted: July 05, 2008 at 03:05 PM (#2844269)

I generally think pretty highly of Dewan, but it's things like this that remind me not to put TOO much stock into defensive metrics just yet.

Those numbers actually look pretty reasonable. You can make cases for both Lowell and Hannahan being better than Glaus, but neither have the innings to catch him (or Longoria for that matter) in a +/- system. If Rolen had the same innings as Glaus and Longorian, he'd be running away with it at around +24...

17. Sid Hārtman Gautama Posted: July 05, 2008 at 03:06 PM (#2844270)

Yeah, but Longoria doesn't have the pressure of playing for a contendor.

Oh, wait...

18. JPWF13 Posted: July 05, 2008 at 03:07 PM (#2844273)

If I remember correctly, Longoria was considered a reach at #3 by just about everybody because scouts didn't think his bat would develop.

That's not how I remember it- my recollection was that no one was a clear #1- but that Longoria was far and away the best college hitter available.

SI's 2006 mock draft had Miller 1, Longoria 3, Lincoln 3

Baseball America listed him as their best college position player, and their mock draft had him going #4

19. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: July 05, 2008 at 03:20 PM (#2844275)

According to BP's stats, Longoria is 19 FRAR. His VORP is 21.1. My math has that equalling about 40 runs (about 4 wins, right?).

How is his overall WARP at 5.0?

WARP does not incorporate VORP, they are different metrics. VORP is based off of runs created (still?) and, I think, has a positional adjustment. WARP is based of equivalent runs, and the positional adjustment comes later in the process (assuming I'm right about VORP on that count).

20. Crispix Attacks Posted: July 05, 2008 at 03:22 PM (#2844276)

We should be applauding the Rays, not making fun of the Royals and Rockies (though making fun of the Greg Reynolds choice is perfectly defensible--everyone knew that was stupid).

but Reynolds is still only 22. Not soon enough yet to know if they made a mistake.

21. JJ1986 Posted: July 05, 2008 at 03:24 PM (#2844277)

That's not how I remember it- my recollection was that no one was a clear #1- but that Longoria was far and away the best college hitter available.

Yeah, I remember him being the #2 player in the draft class, after Miller.

22. Charlie O Posted: July 05, 2008 at 03:49 PM (#2844287)

I hope this turns out better than the AL Rookie of the Year–Page Versus Murray sham of 1977. We've seen some questionable RoY decisions over the years but this one was hideous.

23. Sidd [bleeping] Finch (SuperBaes) Posted: July 05, 2008 at 04:14 PM (#2844326)

We've seen some questionable RoY decisions over the years but this one was hideous.

Bob Hamelin and Ben Grieve turned out to be quality major leaguers. True, those were terrible rookie years. Berroa stole the award from Matsui (voters shouldn't be allowed to apply their own standards and criteria). I still don't see how Williamson won ROTY over Preston Wilson in 1999.

24. buddy Posted: July 05, 2008 at 04:31 PM (#2844368)

longoria is a far better choice for ROY, at this point, than ellsbury. from what i've seen, he's better defensively than ellsbury, and his bat is a lot better.

25. Petunia Posted: July 05, 2008 at 05:50 PM (#2844509)

Lincecum might be a different story, as, with no injury history, scouts basically just said his weird motion and smallness would mean he'd get hurt.

I still think this.

26. Walt Davis Posted: July 05, 2008 at 06:23 PM (#2844601)

Not soon enough yet to know if they made a mistake.

This makes my head hurt. :-)

Berroa stole the award from Matsui (voters shouldn't be allowed to apply their own standards and criteria).

No he didn't. Berroa deserved it more than Matsui. A 101 OPS+ in 158 games with 21/5 SB/CS from a "good" fielding SS is excellent. Matsui had just a 109 OPS+ (in 163 games!) which is at-best average for an LF and he's no defensive wizard. For what it'w worth, BPro gave Matsui 3.2 WARP1 vs. 5.7 for Berroa. All of that difference is defense but by VORP, you get Berroa at 33.3 and Matsui well behind at 20.6, just a smidgen ahead of BBC's personal ROY Jody Gerut at 20.1.

Voters may have had the wrong reason for not voting for Matsui and he may have been the better bet going forward (Berroa certainly cratered), but Angel Berroa had a far better year in 2003 than Matsui did and that is the criterion for ROY.

27. Danny Posted: July 05, 2008 at 06:31 PM (#2844620)

BA's 2006 top 5 draft prospects:

1) Miller
2) Lincecum
3) Lincoln
4) Longoria
5) Reynolds

Berroa stole the award from Matsui (voters shouldn't be allowed to apply their own standards and criteria).

Really? Berroa led Matsui in VORP 33.3 to 20.6. On defense, UZR had Matsui at -19 and Berroa at -1.

Edit: looks like Walt beat me to most of this.

28. Master of Karate and Friendship (Kyle C) Posted: July 05, 2008 at 06:56 PM (#2844749)

I think the reason Matsui lost the ROY was stupid, but Berroa clearly deserved it more.

29. Biff. You know, for kids! Posted: July 05, 2008 at 07:02 PM (#2844759)

from what i've seen, he's better defensively than ellsbury

Huh?

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FBG: AL Rookie of the Year–Ellsbury Versus Longoria

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