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Well, Ellsbury plays the Yanks something like 10-12 more times this year, so that's about 30 bunts singles you have to add to his expected line.
And I had dreams of him dropping all the way to 11
Let me guess, the Pirates were one of the teams that passed on him?
They actually weren't. KC (Hochevar) and Colorado (Greg Reynolds) were.
That sentence is just completely misleading. Ellsbury's FRAR is 16 compared to Longoria's 19. Longoria's main advantage over Ellsbury is his power.
If you look at RZR numbers, Rolen is .861 Longoria is .725. That isn't evan close.
Ellsbury's .951 would actually lead all CF's if he had played enough innings in CF to qualify. His .920 would be second to only Matt Holliday's .925 in LF.
Comparing a top CF, who you can move around to the corner spots as you need, to a good, but not great 3B, I would give the point on defense to Ellsbury. Again Longoria definately deserves the mid-season rookie of the year award, but his defense is not the primary reason.
They actually weren't. KC (Hochevar) and Colorado (Greg Reynolds) were.
Let's be fair: they took Brad Lincoln that year, over Tim Lincecum. I have a small aneurysm every time I hear Lincecum's name because of that.
According to BP's stats, Longoria is 19 FRAR. His VORP is 21.1. My math has that equalling about 40 runs (about 4 wins, right?).
How is his overall WARP at 5.0?
Aha, but the Rockies took Greg Reynolds over Longoria AND Lincecum.
Let's see how well he turns out.
Lincecum might be a different story, as, with no injury history, scouts basically just said his weird motion and smallness would mean he'd get hurt. I can't speak to the rationality of that opinion, but I would guess scouts have a bias toward big pitchers with traditional motions.
I generally think pretty highly of Dewan, but it's things like this that remind me not to put TOO much stock into defensive metrics just yet.
That having been said, Longoria > Ellsbury. And where's Joba in the ROY conversation?
Those numbers actually look pretty reasonable. You can make cases for both Lowell and Hannahan being better than Glaus, but neither have the innings to catch him (or Longoria for that matter) in a +/- system. If Rolen had the same innings as Glaus and Longorian, he'd be running away with it at around +24...
Oh, wait...
That's not how I remember it- my recollection was that no one was a clear #1- but that Longoria was far and away the best college hitter available.
SI's 2006 mock draft had Miller 1, Longoria 3, Lincoln 3
Baseball America listed him as their best college position player, and their mock draft had him going #4
How is his overall WARP at 5.0?
WARP does not incorporate VORP, they are different metrics. VORP is based off of runs created (still?) and, I think, has a positional adjustment. WARP is based of equivalent runs, and the positional adjustment comes later in the process (assuming I'm right about VORP on that count).
but Reynolds is still only 22. Not soon enough yet to know if they made a mistake.
Yeah, I remember him being the #2 player in the draft class, after Miller.
Bob Hamelin and Ben Grieve turned out to be quality major leaguers. True, those were terrible rookie years. Berroa stole the award from Matsui (voters shouldn't be allowed to apply their own standards and criteria). I still don't see how Williamson won ROTY over Preston Wilson in 1999.
I still think this.
This makes my head hurt. :-)
Berroa stole the award from Matsui (voters shouldn't be allowed to apply their own standards and criteria).
No he didn't. Berroa deserved it more than Matsui. A 101 OPS+ in 158 games with 21/5 SB/CS from a "good" fielding SS is excellent. Matsui had just a 109 OPS+ (in 163 games!) which is at-best average for an LF and he's no defensive wizard. For what it'w worth, BPro gave Matsui 3.2 WARP1 vs. 5.7 for Berroa. All of that difference is defense but by VORP, you get Berroa at 33.3 and Matsui well behind at 20.6, just a smidgen ahead of BBC's personal ROY Jody Gerut at 20.1.
Voters may have had the wrong reason for not voting for Matsui and he may have been the better bet going forward (Berroa certainly cratered), but Angel Berroa had a far better year in 2003 than Matsui did and that is the criterion for ROY.
1) Miller
2) Lincecum
3) Lincoln
4) Longoria
5) Reynolds
Really? Berroa led Matsui in VORP 33.3 to 20.6. On defense, UZR had Matsui at -19 and Berroa at -1.
Edit: looks like Walt beat me to most of this.
Huh?
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