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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, April 21, 2008FBG: Joura: Complete Games, Ruined Careers and Mike BerardinoI have in my hand the final envelope!
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My BookmarksYou must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsNewsblog: Madden: Omar Minaya's Mets have issues with injuries and inside the clubhouse (8 - 5:31pm, Jul 05) Last: Darren Newsblog: Washington Post: Rizzo Promises to Deal Only if Offers Are Right (RR) (8 - 5:28pm, Jul 05) Last: fra paolo Newsblog: Steve Kettman: A review of the unmaking of 'Moneyball: The Movie' (17 - 5:26pm, Jul 05) Last: Vogon Poet Newsblog: Cincinnati Enquirer/Fay: Please don't mortgage future (7 - 5:20pm, Jul 05) Last: Harveys Wallbangers Newsblog: tampabay.com: Tampa Bay Rays minor-league affiliate's Ladies Night promotion causing a stir (26 - 5:13pm, Jul 05) Last: Justin Zeth Newsblog: L.A. Times: Game (not) over for Gagne
(3 - 5:04pm, Jul 05) Last: Esoteric can feel Strasburg slowly slipping away |
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.....the above quote came from a fantasy baseball analyst, right?
Unfortunately, I'm not aware of any data supporting that conclusion. It makes common sense of course but I'd love to see actual data on it. It's not the easiest thing to look at -- it's not necessarily clear when pitchers have been hurt or just lost their job; it's hard to control for the increase in opportunities (more teams, 5-man rotations) that make it easier for the good pitcher to hang on late into his career); and you have to balance fewer seasons featuring more innings and starts per season against, presumably, more seasons with fewer innings and starts per season.
There's some superficial evidence -- in terms of games started, 3 of the top 12, 5 of the top 27, 7 of the top 50 were active in 2007. Steve Trachsel -- go figure -- is #99 all-time in starts. But of those 7, only 4 are in the top 50 in IP, none higher than #15 (though Maddux could move up).
The flipside of all that is that it's mainly only the deadball guys and the 70s freaks who had those careers with tons of starts and innings.
There's also the question of how much of the reduction in innings per start is an attempt to preserve a pitcher's health vs. the fact that your average short reliever is posting an ERA+ around 120 or so. I'd love to see a simple analysis of the ERA+ of innings 7-9 throughout the ages.
I'm not sure I disagree with Berardino that much. Yes, hoping for the bygone days of the 1980 A's is a bit much, and 98 pitches doesn't seem "mere" to me. But even though Olson is only 24, provided he didn't have to sit long while his team batted, I'd be inclined to send hum back out there for the 8th, with a reliever ready to go for the first baserunner/long at-bat he allows. No harm in that, I don't think.
But barring Maddux-like efficiency, he ain't going to complete the game, and especially not after the four runs in the 8th. I can't quite figure out if Berardino is advocating that Olson should have completed the game, though, or just get put back out there for the 8th.
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