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Monday, April 21, 2008

FBG: Joura: Complete Games, Ruined Careers and Mike Berardino

I have in my hand the final envelope!

In today’s South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Mike Berardino got paid to write a column where he lamented that the Marlins, who went the entire 2007 season without a complete game, pulled 24-year old Scott Olsen after seven innings in a game they were leading 2-1.

He even mentioned Billy Martin and the 1980 A’s. Further proof that there’s nothing so dangerous as a little bit of knowledge. Fortunately for Olsen and the Marlins fans, manager Fredi Gonzalez and pitching coach Mark Wiley have a better understanding of injuries and senselessly going after complete games.

It’s no fun to watch a game with eight pitching changes. But it’s a small price to pay to see a pitcher like Scott Olsen have a complete career. The combination of fewer innings pitched and greater medical care means that Olsen is much more likely to pitch 15 years in the majors than wind up a casualty like Jim Bouton or Denny McLain or the 1980 A’s.

Repoz Posted: April 21, 2008 at 09:34 PM | 3 comment(s)
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   1. winnipegwhip Posted: April 21, 2008 at 09:54 PM (#2753657)
Fortunately for Olsen and the Marlins fans, manager Fredi Gonzalez and pitching coach Mark Wiley have a better understanding of injuries and senselessly going after complete games.


.....the above quote came from a fantasy baseball analyst, right?
   2. Walt Davis Posted: April 21, 2008 at 11:04 PM (#2753723)
The combination of fewer innings pitched and greater medical care means that Olsen is much more likely to pitch 15 years in the majors than wind up a casualty like Jim Bouton or Denny McLain or the 1980 A’s.

Unfortunately, I'm not aware of any data supporting that conclusion. It makes common sense of course but I'd love to see actual data on it. It's not the easiest thing to look at -- it's not necessarily clear when pitchers have been hurt or just lost their job; it's hard to control for the increase in opportunities (more teams, 5-man rotations) that make it easier for the good pitcher to hang on late into his career); and you have to balance fewer seasons featuring more innings and starts per season against, presumably, more seasons with fewer innings and starts per season.

There's some superficial evidence -- in terms of games started, 3 of the top 12, 5 of the top 27, 7 of the top 50 were active in 2007. Steve Trachsel -- go figure -- is #99 all-time in starts. But of those 7, only 4 are in the top 50 in IP, none higher than #15 (though Maddux could move up).

The flipside of all that is that it's mainly only the deadball guys and the 70s freaks who had those careers with tons of starts and innings.

There's also the question of how much of the reduction in innings per start is an attempt to preserve a pitcher's health vs. the fact that your average short reliever is posting an ERA+ around 120 or so. I'd love to see a simple analysis of the ERA+ of innings 7-9 throughout the ages.
   3. SacBunt Posted: April 22, 2008 at 12:11 AM (#2753756)
Here was Olsen, rolling along with a 2-1 lead through seven innings, a mere 98 pitches on his log. Other than Austin Kearns' leadoff homer in the fifth, Olsen had allowed no other Nationals past second base...

Sending Olsen back out for the eighth would have been the old-school play. Lift him if he runs into trouble, but not until then, especially considering the alarming way the Marlins' bullpen has been overworked so far.


I'm not sure I disagree with Berardino that much. Yes, hoping for the bygone days of the 1980 A's is a bit much, and 98 pitches doesn't seem "mere" to me. But even though Olson is only 24, provided he didn't have to sit long while his team batted, I'd be inclined to send hum back out there for the 8th, with a reliever ready to go for the first baserunner/long at-bat he allows. No harm in that, I don't think.

But barring Maddux-like efficiency, he ain't going to complete the game, and especially not after the four runs in the 8th. I can't quite figure out if Berardino is advocating that Olson should have completed the game, though, or just get put back out there for the 8th.
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