In two years, Tex becomes the DH, and they let Ortiz walk. I don't see the problem here.

By then, Will Middlebrooks may even be ready to ascend.

Ascend... to Portland?

I read/hear variations on this theme with some regularity. To me it's simple, of the group of Ortiz/Youk/Lowell/Teixeira/Anderson/etc...Teixeira is clearly the best player. Vlad correctly points out one possible option and if Anderson is really shaping up as a 35-40 HR beast (I'm a skeptic on Lars) the Sox can deal him to fill another need if for some reason the DH option isn't viable.

How many 31 year old players want to be DH's? Especially players who are very good defensive players?

If that's the plan, Teixiera probably won't want any part of it. Makes me feel better about the Angels' chance of resigning him.

In two years, Tex becomes the DH, and they let Ortiz walk. I don't see the problem here.

Agreed. Ortiz isn't going to last forever. With Teixeira's glove, I'd be more inclined to let him stay at 1B than Anderson (assuming he continues to develop). Wishcasting here, the Red Sox won 2 World Series with Manny as their LF - maybe Anderson wouldn't be too bad? At any rate, Anderson is still not a sure thing, while Teix has a pretty consistent track record. For a team with the financial resources of the Red Sox, Teix makes sense.

I somehow doubt the Red Sox are going to make personnel decisions at the MLB level this year based around Will Middlebrooks.

How many 31 year old players want to be DH's? Especially players who are very good defensive players?

No reason Anderson can't be the DH in this scenario. I suspect the early-20s kid will be perfectly content to DH at the big league level rather than playing 1st base at Pawtucket.

Agreed. Ortiz isn't going to last forever. With Teixeira's glove, I'd be more inclined to let him stay at 1B than Anderson (assuming he continues to develop). Wishcasting here, the Red Sox won 2 World Series with Manny as their LF - maybe Anderson wouldn't be too bad?

Laporta was able to move to LF...

It seems like most of the "Don't sign Tex, he'll block Lars" cries assume that Lars will be up and hitting by 2010 at the latest. AFAIK he still isn't pulling the ball with authority, and until he does that he's not going to be an elite hitter. He has great discipline and a great approach, but he's not ready yet. The Sox should be looking to put the best player on the field, and it will probably be a number of years until Lars is outplaying Tex (especially when you consider defense, where Tex is elite and Lars is still learning).

I agree that the Red Sox should not sign Teixiera. He would totally ruin whatever it is the author is concerned about and other things too. Hopefully Theo has the good sense to avoid this potential disaster.

Right now, two Gold Glovers man the corners. I’m not so sure Youk would be categorized as a Gold Glove contender at third.

I don't have the numbers, but with Lowell's age and injury isn't Youk a much better option at 3rd defensively? Lowell is not a bad fielder, but I would not consider him at his former Gold Glove caliber level of defense (although he is presumably at a Michael Young Gold Glove level).

I'm fairly confident Tex could play a more-than-adequate outfield corner well into his 30's should that be necessary.

I wonder if the Rangers regret moving him to first base in order to accommodate Blaylock? Tex might have gotten them even more on the trade market if they were getting the maximum from his defensive skills at a more difficult position.

EDIT: What jacksone said.

I'm not sure Teixeira would appreciate a move to a corner OF position at this stage in his career. I don't know much about his personality - he seems like a good guy and a team player, but he's been pretty successful at 1B and may not be interested in a change.

The Rangers moved him to first base because he was a bad third baseman. He was a bad third baseman in college as well. I doubt he'd be much to look at in the outfield either.

However, he is an excellent first baseman; truly top-notch. It makes no sense to move him to another position.

I don't see why Tex would even consider the Red Sox and these gyrations. He should sign with the Angels or some team who want him to be their 1Bman for the duration of his contract.

I am somewhat concerned that the old "Youkilis dropoff" in production as the year goes along might be more prone to happen with him at 3B instead of 1B. And while Lowell does need to show he's still good at 3B with the glove post-surgery, before the injury no one would say that Lowell at 3B = Youkilis at 3B defensively, so I do think a "Tex at 1B/Youkilis at 3B" configuration leaves us a bit weaker defensively.

On the other hand, of course, is the fact that Lowell will clearly not be re-signed after 2010, so jettisoning him now (should there be a taker in ST) makes a certain amount of sense, in that it allows a lot of flexibility with Tex/Ortiz/Youkilis/Lowrie mix-and-matching at the 1B/3B/DH spots. Throw in the fact that Youkilis could--at least in theory--play a bit of LF or RF if the need arises, and I'm not sure you need a 5th OF on the roster, either.

I would guess that either Lowell or Lugo gets dealt before the season starts, because having both seems superfluous should they sign Tex.

But, all in all, get Tex if it's reasonable ($20 million/year seems <gulp> reasonable given the market).

I don't see why Tex would even consider the Red Sox and these gyrations. He should sign with the Angels or some team who want him to be their 1Bman for the duration of his contract.

I think it's pretty likely that the Sox would expect him to be their 1Bman for the duration of his contract; the only people thinking he wouldn't be seem to be on the internet.

I'm still not convinced this isn't merely attempting to bid Tex up a little to make him more expensive to the Yankees/Angels.

I remain worried about Ortiz and Lowell and think one or both will have to be replaced, if not next year, than in 2010.

will lars be ready for FT duty in 2010? if not, nothing in his article precludes the sox from signing teixeira now, and then having the real Lars discussion in '10 offseason when you decide to keep papi/lowell, or give a starting job to lars?

one scenario:
09: 1b teix, 3b youk, dh papi, lars FT AAA, lowell traded
10: ditto, lars MLB full year on the bench ('08 sean casey role)
11: 1b teix, 3b youk, dh lars, papi walks

simple, no?

letting papi walk, sacreligious, yes. =(

This article is a textbook case of how the fans of a team overate their own prospects.

The opportunity cost of signing Teixiera isn't what to do with a run of the mill prospect firstbaseman. The opportunity cost is whatever other free agents they don't sign because they signed Teixiera.

Since Teixiera is the best position player available this year that is no opportunity cost at all for this year. So if you don't sign Teixiera it is because you want to sign somebody else one, two, or three years down the road. That is a poor way to run a team.

You can't go wrong signing the best player available. If I was the GM of a team with a big budget my goal every off season would be to sign the best player availabe every single year and I would pay whatever it took to do so. The whole point of having cheap, young, players is to save money so that you can spend money on free agents.

If I was the GM of a team with a big budget my goal every off season would be to sign the best player availabe every single year and I would pay whatever it took to do so.

This is sound reasoning on a general level. But the issue with Teixeira is that Boras/Teixeira seem to want 8-10 years at ~20M, and while Teixeira is really good, he is not Albert Pujols or a guy who plays a premium defensive position. I think it is pretty clear he will be overpaid big time in his decline phase.

So, the question is will the value he provides over the next 3-4 years be worth the exchange? On a certain level, Teixeira seems like a no-brainer, particularly for the Yankees and Angels, but I can see the hesitation, particularly for the Red Sox.

IMO the team that can most justify giving Teixeira a long, gigantic contract is the Angels, given their situation and personnel.

I'm still not convinced this isn't merely attempting to bid Tex up a little to make him more expensive to the Yankees/Angels.

I don't think teams actually are doing this on the FA market; it's much more likely to bite them in the ass as it would push up the cost of FA's in general, so they would pay more for the FAs they do want to sign, and the cost to lock up their own young talent would increase as well. I think the Sox really want Teixeira (Perrotto said they would outbid anyone not going crazy with a $200M offer).

As an example, if the Sox were going to bid up a FA, they would've made an offer to CC, which there is no indication that they have done. As I said elsewhere, I do find it interesting that both the Sox and Yankees seem to have targeted one of the top FA's, and neither is bidding on the one the other is interested in.

"The opportunity cost of signing Teixiera isn't what to do with a run of the mill prospect firstbaseman."

Anderson's more than a run-of-the-mill prospect. Though I agree that people are counting on him a bit too heavily in the general case. I mean, Ron Wright used to be a future stud, too.

The Rangers moved him to first base because he was a bad third baseman. He was a bad third baseman in college as well. I doubt he'd be much to look at in the outfield either.

That's not what I read, what I read was that Tex was a good 3B in college and it was assumed that Blalock was going to be moved to accomodate Tex, but when Blalock established himself in the MLB first, that was that.

Having seen Tex play 1B, and Blalock 3B, it would not surprise me if Tex could still field 3B better than Blalock.

I'm still not convinced this isn't merely attempting to bid Tex up a little to make him more expensive to the Yankees/Angels

I don't think teams actually are doing this on the FA market

I actually agree with the first statement. Theo is boxing clever here and I think they will be more inclined to address more pressing needs like catcher and another starter. They offered Tek a one year contract today so I'm inclined to think they may have something going on with an available catcher...

Then again, I'm not a GM, not that smart....

I've come around on CC and Tex. Spend what you need to to get these guys. The Red Sox are raking in more dough every year and their spending is stagnating. Spending $25 mil/year on excellent players, even if you're "overpaying" by some measures, you can afford it. Heck, sign 'em both and send the payroll into the 160-170 range.

If I was the GM of a team with a big budget my goal every off season would be to sign the best player availabe every single year and I would pay whatever it took to do so.

It would be hilarious if there were two GMs like you.

This article is a textbook case of how the fans of a team overate their own prospects.

Exactly.

Lars Anderson will likely be a very good major league player - eventually. But the error bars around that possibility are fairly large - both in terms of what he will likely become and more importantly, when. There's no assurance that Anderson will step off the Pawtucket shuttle in 2010 and be every bit the hitter that Mark Teixeira is today. There's a reasonable chance that Anderson will never be that good; there's a reasonable chance that Anderson won't be that good for 2-3 years after he hits the majors. And there's little chance that Anderson will be that good in the majors in 2009.

As several people have noted, Boston has enough flexibility with its contracts so that the Sox could sign Teixeira AND make room for Anderson, if he forces his way into a major league job in 2010. Epstein should not let Lars Anderson prevent him from adding Teixeira, if everything else makes sense.

-- MWE

I don't think the Red Sox should be in the hunt for CC or Tex, it would increase their payroll by 30% or so and it would have a marginal impact on their chances to make the postseason.

There's no reason to buy players now that you might need two years down the line, something else inevitably will turn up.

There's no reason to buy players now that you might need two years down the line, something else inevitably will turn up.

Yup, spot on. And the article does mention that some guy named Pujols will be available after 2010 should the Lars development programme not come to fruition...

I highly doubt Pujols doesn't resign with the Cardinals.

I don't think the Red Sox should be in the hunt for CC or Tex, it would increase their payroll by 30% or so and it would have a marginal impact on their chances to make the postseason.

The only reason I care about their payroll is because I want them to save money to invest in really good players. They can invest in 2 really good players right now, so they should do it. Their current payroll is tiny when compared to their revenues.

I also think you're far more sure of the Sox being in the postseason than you should be. The Yankees won 89 games last year and have improved. The Rays beat the Sox. And there's always a few wild-card contenders. The Red Sox could greatly improve their playoff chances in 09 and on by adding these elite talents.

Yup, spot on. And the article does mention that some guy named Pujols will be available after 2010 should the Lars development programme not come to fruition...

You make it sound like Pujols is encased in glass, waiting to be broken out if needed. The Cards would be nuts to let him reach free agency. And if they do, there are going to be a few teams interested in one of the top hitters of all time. The Red Sox would have to be both lucky and very generous with their offer to get him.

There's no reason to buy players now that you might need two years down the line, something else inevitably will turn up.

Unless Theo knows something you don't about how the lineup is likely to shake out. Right now the Sox are at the top of the competition curve, so if they think they need a bat it doesn't really make sense to sit back and hope everything shakes out just right when they play in a very tough division and have the money to spend.

The thing is, top players aren't hitting FA like they used to, especially young enough that you're buying more of their prime years (and when they do, they're usually Boras guys). As a comparison, how do you think Teixeira stands up to other top FA bats? He's probably going to get more than Soriano, but whoever gets him is getting him for his age 29 season rather than starting at 31.

And it's always possible that you'll have a big need and wind up with the '05-'06 FA class with Konerko and Damon as some of the top targets available (I mean does anyone really think that St Louis is not going to extend Pujols well before he hits FA)?

I don't think the Red Sox should be in the hunt for CC or Tex, it would increase their payroll by 30% or so and it would have a marginal impact on their chances to make the postseason.

There's no reason to buy players now that you might need two years down the line, something else inevitably will turn up.

Sure, the Sox completely dominated their division this season, and figure to do so again next year. Ugh, I just don't see this at all. Right now they have 2 very dangerous teams in their division. And the WC is far from certain to come out of the east next season, because those 3 will probably be taking a significant number of wins off of each other.

Right now is exactly the time for the Sox to flex some financial muscle, and claw for every marginal win you possibly can. Chances are that the Rays won't be able to affoard to keep the core of their team together, and 2-3 years from now they will fade. And the Sox will need these type of additions far less then, than they do now.

Yup, spot on. And the article does mention that some guy named Pujols will be available after 2010 should the Lars development programme not come to fruition...

Yeah, passing on Tex for a one in five chance* at signing Pujols 2 years from now. Sound strategy.

*ok, number pulled out of my butt, but the point is there will be enough teams willing to throw money at him

EDIT: Or what Darren said...

Hey I get that Pujols is a pipe dream, but geez just imagine....
The team is wealthy right now and can quite easily afford both FA's if they go that direction. Personally I'm always happy to see more front line pitching over position players, but if the club gets both who am I to complain?

OCD's point about marginal wins is valid. The Sox need to consider how to keep at or above 95 wins every year and Theo's been pretty savvy about this.