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Thursday, April 24, 2008

Flanagan: Hillman not entirely pleased with Royals’ on-base percentage

Flanagan Oversees...the world of statistics and other jazz.

If there’s one message Royals manager Trey Hillman wants to get through to his hitters, it is to stay disciplined at the plate.

So while Hillman will never become enslaved to the world of statistics, he never takes his eye off one stat that tends to measure plate discipline — on-base percentage.

As you can imagine, watching his hitters this season has Hillman desperately trying to keep his composure.

“I have to bite my tongue all the time,” Hillman said with a slight smile. “And believe me, I want to snap sometimes. But what stops me from snapping is that I know that these guys all care. “They want to improve at it (OBP). They want to get better.”

...“I want guys to be aggressive up there,” he said. “You can’t take that away from a hitter. And you can’t be walking around with a red-hot poker every time a mistake is made.

“But then again, you don’t want your players cutting loose on 2-0 or 3-0 pitches just for the sake of it. I can control it, and I can put the take sign on.”

Repoz Posted: April 24, 2008 at 01:09 AM | 14 comment(s)
Related News: General, Kansas City

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1. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: April 24, 2008 at 02:39 AM (#2757054)

I'm not a big fan of micro-managing players.

Edit: I think Hillman is a good manager

2. Brandon in MO (Fire Trey Hillman) Posted: April 24, 2008 at 03:11 AM (#2757057)

Hillman is probably going to banish Tony Penita to Siberia if he's really a stickler about OBP.

3. Tuque Snider Posted: April 24, 2008 at 04:21 AM (#2757060)

Are the odds in favor of taking a 2-0 pitch? It also seems as though on 2-0 and 3-0 counts there would be a much higher likelihood of a fat pitch -- i.e., a fastball down the middle. Watching Daisuke Matsuzaka seems to demonstrate this (though I haven't seen the actual stats). While I would assume the numbers would be in favor of taking a 3-0 pitch in particular, is that the case?

I feel as though there must have been research in this area, but given that I'm a relative newbie as far as sabermetrics goes, I don't know where to find it.

4. Justin Zeth Posted: April 24, 2008 at 04:31 AM (#2757061)

Long story short, when the count's 2-0 the average hitter becomes Albert Pujols, mostly because with that favorable a count the hitter's able to sit dead-red on the fastball down the middle, prepared to take if it's anything else. 3-0, same thing, only more so, although many managers give the automatic take.

I read some stat the other day that Brad Wilkerson's swung on a 3-0 pitch something like three times in his career... not that it's worth much to anyone but me, but I've never swung at a 3-0 pitch in my life.

5. Voros Posted: April 24, 2008 at 05:55 AM (#2757062)

Every non two strike count produces above average hitting numbers when the ball is put in play on that count. The lowest batting average on non two strike counts is for 0-1 at .324.

Never being able to strike out improves most hitters. Of course if you swing at 2-0, it doesn't necessarily mean you'll put it in play, you may foul it off or swing and miss. If you swing 2-0, you can still strike out, it'll just be filed under 2-2 or 3-2 if you do.

To really answer the question, you'd have to look at the results that occurred when a player swung 2-0 and when he took, and you'd also have to make some adjustments for differing populations of hitters and pitchers in each category.

6. Sid Hārtman Gautama Posted: April 24, 2008 at 07:34 AM (#2757067)

3: I did some work in this area last year. Don't know if it's what you're looking for, but here it is:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-long-and-the-short-ofplate-appearances/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/cant-find-the-strike-zone/

7. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: April 24, 2008 at 08:22 AM (#2757080)

“But then again, you don’t want your players cutting loose on 2-0 or 3-0 pitches just for the sake of it. I can control it, and I can put the take sign on.”

This seems like taking it too far the other way to me. Be patient and get a hitter's count, then feckin' rip. If you miss or foul it off, you still have a good count.

8. Suff Posted: April 24, 2008 at 09:06 AM (#2757110)

Being a disciplined hitter is about more than taking walks or getting hitters' counts. There are good pitches to swing at 2-0 or 3-0 and there are bad ones. A big swing and miss is one thing, but there's just about nothing more irritating than seeing someone work a 2-0 or especially a 3-0 count, then swing and hit the ball weakly. It happens occasionally, but if it turns out to be a trend, putting a take sign on in those situations might be a good thing. One also needs to look at how the batter is being pitched; if the 2/3-0 count is because the pitcher has no clue (meaning you doubt he's capable of throwing 3 strikes before he throws 4 balls) then a take sign is more appropriate than when a pitcher is just missing.

9. The Marksist Posted: April 24, 2008 at 09:48 AM (#2757137)

he never takes his eye off one stat that tends to measure plate discipline — on-base percentage.

Tends? ... ?

10. TWO!-OH!-OH!-OH! CLAP!-CLAP!-CLAP!CLAP!CLAP! Posted: April 24, 2008 at 10:46 AM (#2757178)

I read some stat the other day that Brad Wilkerson's swung on a 3-0 pitch something like three times in his career.

b-r.com says you are correct. 239 career 3-0 counts, swinging on 3 of them.

11. Mister High Standards Posted: April 24, 2008 at 11:14 AM (#2757208)

Tends? ... ?

Yes. That is preciscly the correct word. There is not a correlation of 1.0 between OBP and Plate Disipline. Implying otherwise indicates misunderstanding in one form or another.

12. Cowboy Popup Posted: April 24, 2008 at 11:29 AM (#2757226)

“But then again, you don’t want your players cutting loose on 2-0 or 3-0 pitches just for the sake of it.

I think the bolded part is important. He's got a lot of young hitters, he wants them to swing at good 2-0 and 3-0 pitches. He may feel that some guys are still swinging at pitchers pitches in those counts and that's why he's giving the take sign.

13. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: April 24, 2008 at 12:46 PM (#2757310)

He may feel that some guys are still swinging at pitchers pitches in those counts and that's why he's giving the take sign.

Well, know your pitcher, I guess, but what are the chances of getting a pitcher's pitch on 3-0? Damned slim, I'd say.

14. Justin T Posted: April 24, 2008 at 12:54 PM (#2757321)

Yes, but if the hitters are deciding before the pitch that they are gonna see some meat and drill it, and then they grip it and rip it at a fastball that the erratic pitcher still can't get over the plate, there's a problem.

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Thursday, April 24, 2008

Flanagan: Hillman not entirely pleased with Royals’ on-base percentage

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