Flushing University: Reality Sets In

Consider this when talking about the Mets prospects for July, assuming they make no major moves over the course of the next few weeks. Reyes says it is unlikely he will be back before the All-Star break, and you have rehab games to consider, while Delgado almost certainly won’t return until after the trading deadline. So the Mets could very well miss both of them for all of next month.

In the base case scenario, Beltran will come back right after the All-Star Break. This means he will miss a little less than half (42%). During June, he missed 36% of the action. That month, the Mets were outscored 140-105; over a 162 game season, this amounts to 64 wins. Worst case, Beltran misses the entire month plus. In the nine games he has been absent thus far, the Mets have been outscored 43-32, amounting to 56 wins. Ultimately, were talking in the vicinity of 9-10 wins in July.

Unless Omar and co. does something big, the Mets are a bad, well below .500 team, and as the sample size increases, the results will bear that essential truth out.