I guess he doesn't care about the extra 72 million dollars over 3 more years. That's 24 million a year for 3 years he's kicking the can on, though its possible he still gets a 3/30 contract as his next contract, making him lose only about 40 million.

I've been preaching this for a while, but for a guy who hasn't had a huge contract yet, the rational thing for any pitcher to do is sign the first "you and your family will be wealthy forever" contract you get. It's nuts from a human perspective to walk away from $80 mil in the hopes that 9 months from now you'll get more....$80 mil is life-altering for several generations of your family.

Now, if you've already signed a huge contract (like Santana did) then the calculus changes, I think, somewhat. But I continue to think that guys like Francis, Zambrano, etc who are in different phases of pre-arb but don't have 'never have to work again, nor will my kids' level money will, and should, sign deals like this when offered.

One bad shoulder injury and this offer disappears. And not a doctor in the world can tell Zambrano with a straight face that it can't happen to him on Opening Day, either.

Plus he walks a lot of guys. With a pitcher of his results and age, are walks a likely candidate to disappear, or hinder his pitching ability as he progresses as a pitcher?

But I continue to think that guys like Francis, Zambrano

I agree with your premise. I don't agree that Zambrano is one of those guys. He has all ready made 25m in his career. After taxes and agenct fees that is more than 10m I would guess. Comparing him to Francis in terms of what they have made, is like comparing me to Mike Emiegh in terms of baseball knowledge.

And Z, who grew into the Cubs rotation behind Prior and Wood, is in a unique position to appreciate the importance of getting that set-for-life contract signed, before the commodity (the right arm) become a liability.

He's made a bit over $11 million prior to this season, and was already guaranteed $12+ million for this season. He'd have to be Jack Clark stupid not to leave his kids in a very comfortable financial situation.

That being said, he's in effect signing a 4 year extension for $17 million per season. That's nothing to sneeze at, and it's certainly possible that the market will be such in 4 years that if he's healthy, he'll make even more money.

With a pitcher of his results and age, are walks a likely candidate to disappear, or hinder his pitching ability as he progresses as a pitcher?


Well, who knows. The walks were a career high last year, which wouldn't be such a concern given Z's groundball tendencies--but his GB/FB was down last year too. That said, he's a risk I'm happy to take, and I hope he signs long-term with the Cubs anyway. Even with those downward trends, in '06--he had a terrific year; his K rate continues to rise. Now, if he could just add some power at the plate. Oh, wait...

When Zambrano came up, he was an extreme GB pitcher, with Brown-like sinker.
I think much of the increased walks are because he is trying to strike people out rather than get nice little GB.
Does spending 2 years with Greg Maddux teach him nothing?

I agree with the notion that a player, particularly a pitcher, should go ahead and take a life-changing contract, even if he leaves a few mil on the table. But that argument, taken to its extreme, could be used to suggest that Zambrano should take 3/30 deal right now.

5/80 may be a nice chunk of change but it'd be quite a bargain for the Cubs. He could get them up to 6/100 and they'd still be making out pretty well.

But that argument, taken to its extreme, could be used to suggest that Zambrano should take 3/30 deal right now.

Not really, no. 3/30 is what the Ted Lilly's and Jason Marquis's of the world get nowadays. Z could have his right arm fall off and do better than that.

Not to mention, the Cubs just shelled out 8/136 for Soriano. Wouldn't you be a bit insulted that they were lowballing you.

That being said, he's in effect signing a 4 year extension for $17 million per season. That's nothing to sneeze at, and it's certainly possible that the market will be such in 4 years that if he's healthy, he'll make even more money.

Important point. He's young enough and good enough that he might get TWO mega-contracts in his career, which very few players get the chance to do.

Three weeks after he signs the contract, he'll need Tommy John surgery.

Not really, no. 3/30 is what the Ted Lilly's and Jason Marquis's of the world get nowadays. Z could have his right arm fall off and do better than that.

But we aren't talking about his market value vs other pitchers. We're talking about whether a young player should take a lifechanging contract. I say yes he should, but not to the point where he's screwing himself, and especially not if he's made enough already to be comfortable for a long time.

Important point. He's young enough and good enough that he might get TWO mega-contracts in his career, which very few players get the chance to do.

I see this as sort of irrelevant. He may indeed be in line for another payday a long way down the road, but he shouldn't skimp on this one because of it.

This would be a steal. 5/80 for Zambrano isn't even a little bit uncomfortable for the Cubs. Regardless of whether it would make sense for him to sign this rather than playing out the season, I imagine he could push the Cubs a little further financially before he has to has to make the call.

He may indeed be in line for another payday a long way down the road, but he shouldn't skimp on this one because of it.

He's not in salary per year - though perhaps in length. The four additional years to the contract he had already signed are at $17 million per. It's also possible (though we don't know yet) that at least some of the extra money will be accelerated into this year, increasing the actual value of the contract. He might be giving up a relatively small percentage in salary per year (although that's not sure) - he likely is giving up 1-3 years of contract length. However, he's also gaining a great deal of certainty AND making it more likely that he picks up another rich long term contract later on - when the market might be even higher. This is ignoring, of course, that staying with the Cubs might have actual value for him.

But we aren't talking about his market value vs other pitchers. We're talking about whether a young player should take a lifechanging contract.

Yes, but there is a context to this discussion. 3/30 would be life changing, but there's essentially no risk in not taking it. His worst case scenario in rejecting it is that's what he ends up with. In rejecting 5/80, there's a risk he may never see that money again.

I agree with your premise. I don't agree that Zambrano is one of those guys. He has all ready made 25m in his career. After taxes and agenct fees that is more than 10m I would guess. Comparing him to Francis in terms of what they have made, is like comparing me to Mike Emiegh in terms of baseball knowledge.

Not really, I don't think. $10 mil is a lot, but if you live an aggressive lifestyle you can blow through that especially if you happen to get divorced at some point.

$80 mil, not so much.

I really don't think it's the same, and if you agree with the basic premise I don't think you can think so, either. Obviously, there's distinctions amongst guys and at different amounts, but I think the same thing that drives someone like Francis to sign a deal (or Santana his first extension) drive this one.

I think I could blow through a Lilly sized contract in a few years. 40 million: big house (10 million), 2nd house/cottage (2 million), several cars (2 million), vacations and living (1 million), whats that? 15 million? Okay then, cocaine ring...gambling...jeez this is harder than I thought.

MSI, you forgot the big one: taxes.

I think I could blow through a Lilly sized contract in a few years. 40 million: big house (10 million), 2nd house/cottage (2 million), several cars (2 million), vacations and living (1 million), whats that? 15 million? Okay then, cocaine ring...gambling...jeez this is harder than I thought.

Here's a helpful primer

Not really, I don't think. $10 mil is a lot, but if you live an aggressive lifestyle you can blow through that especially if you happen to get divorced at some point.

$80 mil, not so much.

You're comparing net and gross, donkey. Maybe that doesn't mean much to you, but when I look at my w-2 there is a pretty huge difference.

Oh yeah AG1F, I remember that one. He buys a stamp or something and sends it to someone. He couldn't buy possessions right? That was a great movie.

Funnily, one of the guys on the message board suggsts this:

"I would get pretty drunk with a whole bunch of people.. throwing basically a gigantic party for 29 days..

Then simply burn whatever cash is left, since heat is a valuable service that is justified."

Seeing as this is at least the third year in a row that Prospectus has suggested that Zambrano is due for an injury, I don't think they should be allowed to crow if (when?) he does finally break down. They could append a generalized injury concern to the end of every pitcher's player comment and odds are they'd be right once every three or four years for just about everyone.

True... it's like the "itty-bitty Pedro" crew who predicted doom for the 7-year Red Sox contract deciding they'd been "proven right" by his 2006 slip-and-chip Met injuries.

Three weeks after he signs the contract, he'll need Tommy John surgery.

I say Zambrano's wrist disintegrates at the instant he writes the "n" in "Zambrano."

In golf there's a saying, in effect, that you have to know which half of the fairway to miss on. If you've ever golfed, you know what this means. If you're likely to make a bad shot--well some mistakes are worse than others.

Along the same lines there are two kind of regret you can have with a contract like this: One, you can lament the large amount of money you left on the table. The money you could have received had you waited. Two, there's the Jody Reed/Juan Gone/Matt Harrington/Nomar Garciaparra type regret where you think you could get more but for whatever reason it doesn't materialize.

Both ways you leave a fair amount of money on the table. However one way the money is tangible, it's real, actual, folding green type money--the other money is strictly hypothetical and may not exist at all.

So which side of the fairway do you miss on? The side where there's $80 million guaranteed dollars or the side where there might be $139 million but there's also a lof of two year/$12M contracts with an option for a third (year) or perhaps nothing beyond 2007? Especially if, in your line of work, your next pitch could well be the last one you ever throw in the big leagues.

If I have to choose whether to leave real bona fide legal tender on the table or hypothetical, intangible money on the table--well...

Bird in the hand and all that.

Best Regards

John

I think I could blow through a Lilly sized contract in a few years. 40 million: big house (10 million), 2nd house/cottage (2 million), several cars (2 million), vacations and living (1 million), whats that? 15 million? Okay then, cocaine ring...gambling...jeez this is harder than I thought.

Piece of cake.

It's 40 mil/4 years, right? OK, income taxes take out about 40%. So that's now only $24 mil. Those $12 million dollar homes are going to have about $200,000/year in taxes, insurance, and maintenance. So that's $12.8 mil, leaving now $11.2. Since my $10 million home is going to be oceanfront, I will need at least 6 boats; cruising yacht ($1 mil), offshore fishing boat ($200,000), inshore flats skiff ($50,000), all purpose goofing around boat ($50,000), and 2 Yamaha wave runners ($20,000). I will also need a seaplane ($500,000). I'm not a big car guy. I could get by with a new Volvo C70 convertible ($40,000), a Suburban LTZ ($50,000), and a Tesla roadster for my carbon offset ($100,000). And a Fleetcraft motor home ($100,000). That's $1.8 mil for vehicles, plus about $150,000 per year for maintenance, insurance, and operating costs for total of $2.4 mil. Now we're down to $8.8 million, or $2.2 million per year to support an extremely elaborate lifestyle (vacations, fine dining, designer clothes, jewelry, attendence at final 4's, super bowls, olympics, maybe a luxury box or 2, hosting elaborate parties, etc), gifts to friends and family, charity.

Come to think of it, $40 mil isn't enough. What do I do after 4 years?

Probably no surprise, but Zambrano has tolled the deadline to make a deal -- seeing that both sides are close. I would expect something to be announced in the next few days.

If the deal is anywhere near 5/80 - then it's an absolute steal... and also safe to say that Z's agent spends no time reading BTF.

This will be Zambrano's age 26 season - so he's just now existing the 'danger zone' for hurlers and pitcher abuse. BPro can tag him as a breakdown waiting to happen all they want - and while I would generally abhor proclaiming someone an outlier on 'gut' alone, the fact is -- we know there are certain pitchers that for whatever reason, were just built to pitch. I'm sure there's a tipping point that no hurler can survive, but some guys just throw, and throw, and throw.

As Z moves into his mid to late 20s - without suffering any real arm or shoulder problems, I'm getting more and more comfortable slotting him in with 'that type' of pitcher (a Randy Johnson, a Livan Hernandez, etc).

While his walks spiked last year, his K rate has ALSO been steadily improving each season, which leads me to believe that his stuff certainly isn't suffering from his workload. I know it's folly to look at spring numbers, but his walk rate this spring looked much improved (about half of last year's BB rate).

There probably aren't more than 3 or 4 pitchers I would be comfortable giving a long-term (5, 6, 7) year deal to --- but Zambrano is absolutely one of them.

The kid is a horse. He's the Cubs' new Fergie Jenkins.