A) I didn't post #67.

B) Quoting you quoting yourself: "assuming his true normal BABIP..."

All I'm saying is that it's possible for one to take the word "assuming" in that sentence to mean that you are, you know, making an assumption (as opposed to stating a fact). Perhaps that's what the person who posted #67 (who you mistakenly assumed to be me) did.

Ramirez is likely to develop substantial power as he matures, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up somewhere other than short in the long run.

Almost certainly somewhere other than Miami -- perhaps playing for the Red Sox.

Time will tell.

Here is Billy Hall's "isolated power" (MLE) trend for his career.

2000 - Age 20 - .090
2001 - Age 21 - .140
2002 - Age 22 - .073
2003 - Age 23 - .139
2004 - Age 24 - .142
2005 - Age 25 - .204
2006 - Age 26 - .283

Something unusual happened between 2004 and 2005. This is not a normal growth path.

The most similar patter I could find, doing a quick search was Sammy Sosa.

1989 - Age 20 - .109
1990 - Age 21 - .171
1991 - Age 22 - .132
1993 - Age 23 - .133
1994 - Age 24 - .224
1995 - Age 25 - .245

Are there any others who experienced a sudden, dramatic, and sustained spike in ISO at a young age.

At what position I happen to have in my projection database is simply the position at which a player has played the most games in his major league career. You (or I) can project anyone at any position they want. As I said, Manny would "become" one of the better players in baseball if he were a DH and Dejesus would lose some value as a corner outfielder. That's all.

I don't have Peralta or Lopez projected well at all. One, they both have poor UZR's and two, they both have one good hitting year in the majors and the rest of the major and minor years are terrible in hitting. I don't speculate as to which is the "real player." I simply use a Marcel-like projection algorithm which weights the minor leagues a little less than the majors (aside from the usual weighting by recency - more recent years get more weight).

As far as NL and AL difference this year, in order to calculate which league gets better relative to the other, first, I use BP's playing time/depth charts to approximate who will get how many PA's this year in the NL and AL. I look at what minor league players are going to play in the NL and AL for the first time and which players switch leagues. Then I look at those players' projections in total runs (Slwts), prorated for their expected PA in their respective new league. That tells me how many runs the NL and the AL are gaining. This year (as in last) the AL is gaining alot both in hitting and pitching. What I didn't do is to look at what each league is losing (through retirement, attrition, etc.) compared to last year. So my assumption is that both leagues are losing an equal number of runs. That is the final piece of the puzzle of course, which is on my list of things to do. Plus I did not include the playing time from last year of each player that switched leagues, which is also important in terms of what each league is losing.

According to the BP depth charts as of a few days before the season started, here are the hitters and pitchers who moved from one league to the other and from the minors to the NL or AL (more or less - some players in the minors list may have spent a little time in the majors - I'm not sure of all of them):

NL to AL
Abreu (was already in the AL for almost half last year)
Pratt
Drew
Clayton
Harris
Huff
Bynum
Knott
Cirillo
Dellucci
Luna
Barfield
Casey (also moved last year)
Larue
Pena (back to the AL since)
Piazza
Lofton
Byrd
Ojeda
Vidro
Guillen

Pettitte
Vizcaino
Ohka
Zambrano
Thompson
Accardo
Reyes (the older one)
Ryu
Trachsel
Baez
Bradford
Williamson
Ramon Ortiz
Ponson
Venafro
Borowski
R. Hernandez
Fultz
Mesa
Floyd
Bannister
Bale
Ray
Oliver
Resop
Embree
Jam Wright
Gagne
H. Ramirez
Batista
Rhodes

Minors to AL

Phelps
Kottaras
Thigpen
Dukes
Longoria
Brignac
House
Pedro Lopez
Huber
Gordon
B. Wood
Goleski
J. Clement

Hughes
Niemann
Olson
Slowey
A. Miller
Campusano
Danks
Seibel
G. Jones
S. White

AL to NL
Dobbs
Barajas
Newhan
A Boone
A Sanchez
Belliard
D Young
T Lee (retired)
Snelling
Derosa
Mench
A Kennedy
Loretta
Matos
Bu Crosby
Conine
J Castro
Keppinger
A Gonzalez (the one not retired)
Branyan
Kouzmanoff
A Gomez
B Molina

F Garcia
Moyer
Eaton
Alfonseca
M Smith
Mota
Scheonweiss
Burgos
Redman
Wickman
R Soriano
Sturtze
Gregg
Lilly
Cotts
Cordero
Dessens
Chacon
Lohse (moved last year)
Saarloos
Livingston
R Johnson
Wells
Hendrickson (last year)
R Lopez
Affeldt
Bautista
Zito
Russ ORtiz
Chulk

Minors to NL

Stokes
De Aza
Casto
Flores
Pie
R Patterson
Braun
Conrad
Brooks
Pence
Eldred
Barden
Krynzel

Warden
J Smith
Lindstrom
Chico
Hanrahan
Speigner
Gallardo
Patton
Burnett
Bailey
Coutlangus
Maclane
Cameron

"A .300 hitter who has a .360 BABIP is actually only a .250 hitter, who is having a lucky season (assuming his true normal BABIP is .300)."

Then I'll say it ... this is moronic.

What do you mean by "300 hitter"? A guy who hits 300 in one season? If so, sure, your post makes sense ... but that's not what anyone in their right mind calls a 300 hitter.

Juan Pierre, who is one of the rare exceptions of a 300 hitter who's not particularly valuable, has a career on-contact BA of 322 after 4122 AB. If you assume his true BABIP is 300, you're wrong.

And please, show me a MLer with a substantial number of PAs who Ks 1 in 6 AB and has a 300 on-contact BA. Heck, you're gonna have trouble finding me an MLer with a 300 on-contact BA.

You're confusing BABIP (which does not include HR) and on-contact BA (which does). 2006 NL league-average on-contact BA was 329; 336 in the AL. If league-average on-contact BA was 300, league average BA would be about 245.

Anyway, here's a list of active career 300 hitters: Helton, Pujols, Ichiro, Vlad, Nomar, Jeter, Manny, Piazza, AROD, Ordonez, Thomas, C Jones, Pudge, Berkman, Abreu, Pierre, Casey, Sweeney, Alou, Kendall, Polanco, Vidro, M Young.

So the first 15 names on that list are (or were) among the best hitters in baseball. Pierre's not too valuable. Casey can't decide if he's valuable or not but does have a 111 career OPS+ (about average for a 1B, obviously above-average as a "hitter"). Kendall and Vidro were quite valuable in their primes. Polanco's league average for his career. Young has had an odd career but been valuable the last 3 seasons.

Casey's an interesting case: his wild variation across his career -- 3 seasons below 100 OPS+ (for a full-time 1B!), 2 over 130 -- is a function not of BA or on-contact BA but of wildly fluctuating power with ISOs ranging from 101 to 210.

Jiminy Cricket, the guy put up incredible numbers at age 22 -- looking at baseball reference, his black ink 6, grey ink 24, and HOF standard already at 17.0 after one season -- in the MAJOR LEAGUES

Houston Foreman, we have a problem.

Hanley Ramirez has no black ink. He led the league in nothing last year.

He is currently leading the NL in Runs with 7, triples and HBP with 1, and stolen bases with 2, and among the league leaders in a few others. A side effect of BBREF in-season updates is that it appears that things like black/grey ink, HOF monitors (I believe that HOF standards/monitor algorithims are influenced by league leading seasons), and the like get corrupted by in-season noise. In another week, Ramirez may well be down to 0 black ink, and much, much less in the grey ink and HOF monitor/standards.

Sean, is there any way to adjust for this? Not that it's that big a deal.

Mark Derosa has 15 points of grey ink, all of base on his first three games this year.

Elijah Dukes has 3 points of black ink, and 7 points of grey ink, even though his ML career is 2 games long.

I have been reading some of these comments with great interest. As someone who met Bill when he was playing in the minor leagues and has since followed his career quite closely I am most clearly and obviously biased. In addition, I understand that the current climate encourages this type of speculation and that no amount of alternative explanations will be found either sufficient or reasonable.

All I know is that Bill Hall was drafted because he was an extraordinary athlete with an almost legendary physique that he has had since he entered the game, that I have rarely encountered a player with an equivalent desire or work ethic, and that when asked to focus on a particular part of his game he has done so with alacrity and made dramatic progress. When Milwaukee told him he couldn't play if he couldn't play other infield positions he did so. When the club told him he needed to get better on defense he did so. When at mid-season of last year the manager told him he should walk more he did so.

That is all I know about the player Bill Hall.

Therefore, I will refrain from making any attempt to engage in the current course of discussion as it relates to Bill.

Though I would pay legitimate money for the curious souls to approach Bill and ask him if he "cheats". I would enjoy that very much.

You're confusing BABIP (which does not include HR) and on-contact BA (which does).

Yeah. I tried to point this out earlier. A .300 BA/.360 BABIP hitter could be the 0 HR, 100 K guy that kwarren describes, or it could be a 50 HR guy who breaks the single season strikeout record.

Bad link on Derosa, sorry.

Pierre's not too valuable

Part of Pierre's uselessness is of course that he leads the league in Caught Stealing every year, which has little to do with his batting average. And useless though he may be, he was the everyday leadoff man for a World Championship team. Everything's relative; there's a ton of players less useful than Juan Pierre.

A .300 hitter who has a .360 BABIP is actually only a .250 hitter, who is having a lucky season (assuming his true normal BABIP is .300)."

Then I'll say it ... this is moronic.

What do you mean by "300 hitter"? A guy who hits 300 in one season? If so, sure, your post makes sense ... but that's not what anyone in their right mind calls a 300 hitter.

Well thank-you. But why say it's moronic. This thread was about the way BA is misused typically by announcers and writers to give undue importance to a player's current average, not even a season's worth of data.


Juan Pierre, who is one of the rare exceptions of a 300 hitter who's not particularly valuable, has a career on-contact BA of 322 after 4122 AB. If you assume his true BABIP is 300, you're wrong.

Pierre's BABIP for the past five seasons has been .310, .320, .340, .290, and .310. So his established BABIP is .314.



You're confusing BABIP (which does not include HR) and on-contact BA (which does). 2006 NL league-average on-contact BA was 329; 336 in the AL. If league-average on-contact BA was 300, league average BA would be about 245.

No I'm not. Using BABIP is a way of measuring a players luck in a particular season. Homeruns are not luck and should not be included, thus BABIP is much more useful than "on-contact BA"


Anyway, here's a list of active career 300 hitters: Helton, Pujols, Ichiro, Vlad, Nomar, Jeter, Manny, Piazza, AROD, Ordonez, Thomas, C Jones, Pudge, Berkman, Abreu, Pierre, Casey, Sweeney, Alou, Kendall, Polanco, Vidro, M Young.

Over several seasons, which is what you have here, fluctuations in BABIP offset each other, so BA actually measure contact rate which is a skill multiplied by sustainable BABIP (which is essentially line drive hitting skill) which is also sustainable.

And useless though he may be, he was the everyday leadoff man for a World Championship team.

So was Scott Podsednik

Or, to put it another way, every time Pierre has actually hit .300 over a full season, he has scored 100 runs and been a reasonably league-average player. It's when he hits .280 or below that his value starts sinking fast.

So was Scott Podsednik

And Tony Womack. Odd numbered years produce World Champions with lousy lead-off men this decade, don't they? I guess that's a good sign for someone this season

And so was Frankie Crosetti, four times, and he was terrible, I know. But the only point is that uselessness is a relative concept. None of these guys was an actually bad ballplayer in the championship year(s) in question. Even Crosetti had some value till he dropped below the Mendoza line, or whatever they called it then, the Crosetti Cusp maybe ...

None of these guys was an actually bad ballplayer in the championship year(s) in question.

Podsednik was pretty damn bad--an LF with an 86 OPS+ and an SB percentage barely over the break-even point. And Womack was just terrible--he had a 65 OPS+, played weak defense, and only stole 28 bases.

Yes, I was mixing up my Womack seasons (can't imagine why they aren't more memorable :) -- I was thinking of his decent year for the 105-win '04 Cardinals, but they were not a World Champion ... in 2001, Womack did lead off in the postseason, but less than half the time during the regular season ...

None of these guys was an actually bad ballplayer in the championship year(s) in question. Even Crosetti had some value till he dropped below the Mendoza line, or whatever they called it then, the Crosetti Cusp maybe

Bobby Richardson (1961) was.

So... worst year by a leadoff hitter on a World Series champion?

Ok, I became curious. According to bb-ref, here were the main leadoff hitters who were below-average hitters (by OPS+) for WS-winning teams since 1946...

2000s:
2006 Eckstein, 81 OPS+
2005 Posednik, 86 OPS+
2003 Pierre, 98 OPS+
2001 Womack, 65 OPS+ <-- !!!
2000 Knoblauch, 88 OPS+

1990s:
1997 Castillo, 57 OPS+ <-- !!!
1996 Boggs, 97 OPS+
1995 Grissom, 81 OPS+
1992 White, 90 OPS+
1991 Gladden, 80 OPS+

1980s:
1988 Sax, 95 OPS+
1987 Gladden, 75, OPS+
1985 Wilson, 97 OPS+
1983 Bumbry, 91 OPS+
1981 Lopes, 67 OPS+ <--!!!
1980 Rose, 94 OPS+

1970s:
1979 Moreno, 91 OPS+
1978 Rivers, 97 OPS+
1973 Campaneris, 81 OPS+
1972 Campaneris, 84 OPS+

1960s and 1950s:
1966 Aparicio, 96 OPS+
1965 Wills, 93 OPS+
1961 Richardson, 67 OPS+ <-- !!!
1960 Virdon, 99 OPS+
1959 Gilliam, 92

Unfortunately, bb-ref only has lineups from 1957 on (at least at this point).

Anyway, offhand, it looks like a preliminary group of nominees for worst leadoff hitter on a World Champion of the last 50 years would likely be Womack, Castillo, Gladden, Lopes, and Richardson, all of whom had OPS+s below 80 for a World Champion team.

Worst decade for championship leadoff hitters: the 2000s. Only Johnny Damon and David Eckstein were above-average hitters for Championship teams. Best decade: the 70s, with only four below-average leadoff hitters, and none below 81.

No I'm not. Using BABIP is a way of measuring a players luck in a particular season. Homeruns are not luck and should not be included, thus BABIP is much more useful than "on-contact BA"

Ummm...you posted the following:

BA = (AB - K)/AB * H/AB - K) = contact rate * BABIP = H/AB

H/(AB-K) is not the BABIP. That is the on-contact BA. BABIP is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR).
And of course, BA=contact rate * "BABIP" only if BABIP includes HRs.

So, yeah, you pretty clearly confused BABIP and on-contact BA.

And BABIP is a highly repeatable skill for hitters.

Now find me regular ML players with a BABIP (i.e. without HR) of 300 or worse and with virtually no power and who Ks 1 in 6 AB. You will find some but they're few and far between. Even Royce Clayton has managed a career BABIP of 306. Even Ronny Cedeno has managed a 303...and he couldn't keep his job. I'm sure there must be a SS or two, maybe the occasional C who fits that description. Hey, got one, Mike Matheny, BABIP of 286. Of course his career-high 261 BA fell just a wee bit short of 300 and I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Matheny never was called a good hitter. Neifi Perez 288 ... except he doesn't K much. Still his highest (and Coors-inflated) BA was 291. Fair enough, in those Coors days, Neifi was occasionally confused with a good hitter. (In a fantasy league with daily lineup changes, he was my platoon SS, starting when he was in Coors which worked quite well.)

This is of course sample selection "bias." If you have a 300 BABIP and K a lot then, unless you have lots of power and walk a lot or play a mean SS or C, you don't get to play in the majors. Why not? Because your BA is gonna be down around 250 or worse and you won't be a valuable player.

I'd also like to see a list of some players with career BABIPs around 300 who had a full season with a BABIP of 350 or higher.

Though I would pay legitimate money for the curious souls to approach Bill and ask him if he "cheats". I would enjoy that very much.

It's just one guy, Harvey.

"Though I would pay legitimate money for the curious souls to approach Bill and ask him if he "cheats". I would enjoy that very much."


This can only be an implication that there would be some type of violence inflicted or threatened. Roid rage? :)

Pierre's BABIP for the past five seasons has been .310, .320, .340, .290, and .310.

I get .314, .321, .341, .294, and .306. You may not be confused about the difference between BABIP and BA on contact, but you clearly are neglecting to exclude the HRs when you calculate BABIP. It makes almost no difference for a guy like Pierre, who hits a HR about as often as I do, but it will make a very big difference for power hitters.