Andy LaRoche in particular is a nice score,

Maybe. His ZiPS projection for next year is not rosy: 251/345/381. And that will include his minor-league translations. For age 25, it's not that promising. It's roughly a low-90s OPS+, the same or a little worse than Bautista.

If ZiPS is wrong (and Dan might even disagree with it in this case) then he's a nice score. And I will tend to agree that I think prospects who get "jerked around" (i.e. irregular playing time, being benched or demoted in favor of equal or worse players, etc.) underperform and can break out when given a chance. Otherwise, the Dodgers kinda had a point.

On a somewhat related note, Murton has absolutely stunk for the A's (as in Charles Thomas level stink, as in -27 OPS+ stink) and isn't getting regular playing time. Why did they trade for him again? Anyway, maybe Murton would have been something if he had gotten a real shot, but he's looking mighty toasty now. Alas, the same could be true of LaRoche.

There's just winners and losers and don't get caught on the wrong side of that line.

I'm tired of coming out on this losing end...

So as usual with one of these columns if you make trades most likely you will be put on the winners side and if you stand pat you are put on the losers side.

The Pirates, Red Sox and Dodgers should do more three way deals since they all won their trade.

For age 25, it's not that promising

I can't help but wonder if LaRoche is going to become an example of a player whose future was ruined because his manager wouldn't stop jerking him around. Also, he was injured this year; might that not affect his performance and, thusly, his ZIPS projection?

I don't understand why the Red Sox are getting extra credit for being "desperate" to move Ramirez. Burning bridges and (possibly) hurting Ramirez's value was stupid. If they still managed to get value for him, that's interesting, but no more valuable than if they just got value for him.

Also, he was injured this year; might that not affect his performance and, thusly, his ZIPS projection?

Indeed. I can't believe this continues to be overlooked or glossed over here. The guy hit the crap out of the ball for 4 straight years in the minors...then struggled in limited playing time in the majors. In between, he suffered a hand injury that required surgery. Seems pretty likely there's a connection there.

He may continue to struggle for the remainder of 2008, but I think a healthy Andy LaRoche puts up an OPS of .800 or better in 2009.

I don't understand why the Red Sox are getting extra credit for being "desperate" to move Ramirez. Burning bridges and (possibly) hurting Ramirez's value was stupid. If they still managed to get value for him, that's interesting, but no more valuable than if they just got value for him.

IMO, it's all about the PR.

The Red Sox just traded their percieved best player in the middle of a 3-team pennant race for a guy who hit .247/.327/.418 as a LF last year, and gave up two prospects and cash to do it. Yet they are widely being hailed as winners. Now, I, as a Sox fan, think its a good deal, but what's remarkable is that all the major media outlets and the fanbase at large seem to approve as well. They can't make this deal without being 'desperate' to move Ramirez, because if they failed to make the playoffs the Front Office would be ripped to shreds. Now, even if they fail to make the playoffs, it will still be percieved to be the right choice. Even if they don't move him, with the RAMIREZ IS KILLING THE TEAM nonsense, they had ready built excuses a) for not taking his options and b) not making the playoffs, in the more trashy media outlets.

It is an interesting question about whether Ramirez's value was hurt, or whether Colleti got himself in a position that he couldn't not trade for Ramirez due to the media hype. Probably a little of both.

And finally, the last question, and one we stat-orientated fans may look on with some uncertainty: is there the slim possibility somewhere that Manny's actions were hurting the team? I would say that the case he was affecting other players' production is pretty slim, but if the FO felt his absences may become more prolonged, well...

Burning bridges and (possibly) hurting Ramirez's value was stupid.

5 years ago, any team could have had him for nothing. No one jumped to take him. And he was a 10-5 guy, and could veto any trade. What value were they hurting? They were lucky to get anything for him.

5 years ago, any team could have had him for nothing.

It was an entirely different market than it is now. That year, Vlad Guerrero signed a 5y/70m even though he was a Hall of Fame player in his prime. This past offseason, Jose Guillen signed a 3y/36m dollar contract despite the fact that he was in his 30s and can't dream of being the player Vlad was in his prime.

The Sox did well in replacing Manny with Bay without paying too hefty a price.

The media loves a deal. A winner is a team that gives them something to write about.

And another thing. A year from now, you think the Dodgers are gonna consider themselves winners in this deal? I mean, they'll be trying to do what the Red Sox just did.

The Red Sox had to pay the Dodgers to take him. No one wants his contract, even at the end of it.

He demanded that the team options for 20 mil a year be dropped. What is he thinking? He won't get 20 mil a year next contract. He's a fool.

A year from now, Manny will be playing for whatever team signs him, and the Dodgers will have 2 draft picks from that team.

Now, I, as a Sox fan, think its a good deal, but what's remarkable is that all the major media outlets and the fanbase at large seem to approve as well.

Steve Phillips disapproves. So, in evaluating this trade from the perspective of the Red Sox, you can take the side of either Boston's fanbase or Steve Phillips.

That sound you hear is that of other people scrambling for a third option.

On a somewhat related note, Murton has absolutely stunk for the A's (as in Charles Thomas level stink, as in -27 OPS+ stink) and isn't getting regular playing time. Why did they trade for him again?

In 30 AB...

Murton was sent down to AAA a few days ago so they could see a bit of Patterson in LF. Now that Thomas is back, neither one would get regular starts amongst the Cust/CarGo/Sweeney OF. I imagine Murton will be the 4th OFer next year, playing the Bobby Kielty role.

Does Patterson have the arm to play 3B? Now that Chavez can't throw, Hannahan's no longer just a stop-gap.

He demanded that the team options for 20 mil a year be dropped. What is he thinking? He won't get 20 mil a year next contract. He's a fool.

Even if he gets 4/$60m, it might be better than two option years plus whatever he can get in free agency after the 2010 season.

As far as I can tell, this is about the next 4+ years, not the next two.

How many writers will call the Marlins losers for not landing Manny, without making a single mention of how smart it was to hang on to Mike Stanton despite Pittsburgh's pleas to get him?

(note: Perry has them as losers, but only because they overpaid for Rhodes).

Even if he gets 4/$60m...

A big "if". Bust since the options weren't going to be picked up, he may as well test the market.

edit...I just wish the Red Sox would approach Varitek's next contract the same way.

The Red Sox had to pay the Dodgers to take him. No one wants his contract, even at the end of it.

This was sod all to do with Ramirez and a hell of alot to do with Coletti being under instruction to not increase payroll due to McCourts money trouble.

What's their money trouble?

I know the McCourts borrowed from Fox to buy the team, are some big-time payments due?

If memory served McCourt got raped with a big purple dildo during the credit crunch.

If it had nothing to do with Ramirez, why did the Red Sox agree to it? Altruism?

And finally, the last question, and one we stat-orientated fans may look on with some uncertainty: is there the slim possibility somewhere that Manny's actions were hurting the team? I would say that the case he was affecting other players' production is pretty slim, but if the FO felt his absences may become more prolonged, well..

2008 team sOPS+, from BB-Ref:

112 March/April
120 May
121 June
100 July_______________
079 Post All-Star break
073 Last 7 days

They were missing Ortiz in June and July, FWIW. And Ortiz has a 1032 OPS since returning. Yes, their team OPS relative to the league has dropped since Ortiz came back.

Yes, there are a lot of factors going into all these numbers, and one can't pin it all on Manny. I suppose one can't pin the 4 errors in their most recent game on a lack of focus caused by Manny's soap opera. We'll see if they bounce back in August - and even then we can't say for sure it's because Manny's gone. (They do have an easier schedule.)

If people want to claim that Manny's teammates were too immature if they let it get to them, that's fine... but if they have to choose between replacing 24 players or 1 at the deadline, they made the right choice. (Obviously they didn't have to make that choice. They probably *felt* like they had to, and they *might* have been correct.)

To this day you can't gain consensus on whether trading Nomar made a difference in 2004. It appeared to, but whether Millar was slumping prior to the trade because he was distracted by sulking Nomar or because he does poorly unless he's competing for his job, I don't know. Whether the team's rebound (to the wild card) was because Nomar was bringing them down, or because the players realized nobody was sacred on this team unless they performed, or something else, I don't know. I know they played better afterward, just like the Mets have played better after Randolph was fired.

If the Red Sox play better from here on out, is it coincidence? I don't care. I just want them to play better from here on out.

Murton was sent down to AAA a few days ago so they could see a bit of Patterson in LF.

Sort of the way one views photos of burn victims or vomit fetishists to satisfy a morbid curiosity.

Does Patterson have the arm to play 3B?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....

Sorry; that was unprofessional of me.

Even if Patterson has the arm to play third, which I doubt, I suspect watching him try to field hot shots at third would be smashing entertainment. He's way over his head handling normally-struck flies to left.

How many writers will call the Marlins losers for not landing Manny, without making a single mention of how smart it was to hang on to Mike Stanton despite Pittsburgh's pleas to get him?

Did I miss a joke or something?

I agree that Manny started all this, but the front office did not handle the situation professionally. They lost their cool, and antagonized Manny, fanning the flames that led to more poor behavior on his part.

Did I miss a joke or something?

It would be a joke if, like I thought when I first heard the name, that we were talking about a 40+ loogy. But this Mike Stanton is only 18 and last I checked had 26 homers in low A.

Remember, it wasn't the Red Sox who created this situation.

Well, they did put up with his crap for 7.5 years before finally doing something about it. And then, depending on who you believe, they had the front office feeding stories to the press. Manny was also Manny before he was even signed by the Red Sox, so it's not like they didn't have fair warning.

Both parties bear some responsibility for what happened, but the Red Sox did do a very good job of quickly resolving the problem once it leaked out into the public sphere.

I agree that Manny started all this, but the front office did not handle the situation professionally. They lost their cool, and antagonized Manny, fanning the flames that led to more poor behavior on his part.

Yup. That's my best interpretation - they got mad. It's perhaps understandable, and perhaps it would be unfair if they had to suck it up while Manny antagonized them, but ultimately the job of the front office is to win games, and that means not letting your anger drive your actions.

Now, it's all sort of moot at this point - the Sox got the job done, replaced Manny with someone just about as good, on a much more favorable contract. I have to assume it would have been an easier task to complete if they had not burned whatever was left of the bridges between Manny and the organization, but Theo pulled it off anyway.

This isn't even necessarily to say that the Red Sox front office was morally in the wrong - I tend to think they weren't innocent in this, but that's not the point - but to say that the job of a ballclub is to win games, not win the moral reasoning olympics. It worked out, but it couldn't have been the best way to go about it.

I just wish the Red Sox would approach Varitek's next contract the same way.

Are you confident they'll even offer him one? He looks like a piece of toast with a fork sticking out of it.

Well, they did put up with his crap for 7.5 years before finally doing something about it. And then, depending on who you believe, they had the front office feeding stories to the press. Manny was also Manny before he was even signed by the Red Sox, so it's not like they didn't have fair warning.

I think a pretty reasonable distinction can be drawn between Manny v.2008 and Manny of previous seasons. There has never been a story of him being violent before, and now we've got two that are indisputable. There was never a problem before that wasn't defused, there was never a time before that Manny went to the press and complained and asked out. I don't know what happened, but I've been watching Manny for a long time, and something happened with him this summer that changed the Manny Ramirez experience pretty significantly. I don't know if it was Boras or the contract or his personal life or just one of those things, but the previous 6.5 years were pretty different from this one. (or the previous seven from this half of one, or whatever.)

Are you confident they'll even offer him one? He looks like a piece of toast with a fork sticking out of it.

I feel like he's definitely getting 2 years. Which terrifies me. 10 a year?

There's another Mike Stanton? Surely, Craig can't be talking about the ancient LOOGY.

How many writers will call the Marlins losers for not landing Manny, without making a single mention of how smart it was to hang on to Mike Stanton despite Pittsburgh's pleas to get him?

A kid in lo-A who misses most of the pitches thrown by guys who'll never make the high minors? Stanton's a nice prospect, but there's a significant chance his value is as good as it'll ever get. Maybe Manny wasn't the right object for Florida - they have defensive problems enough - but Mike Stanton doesn't look like someone you throw away a big deadline acquisition over. On top of that, most reports had the sticking point for Florida being money, not prospects. They wanted another $2M on top of Manny's salary.

Admittedly, the reports sound like Red Sox leaks, as they make the Sox look really good in a situation where they're trying to save face for their fans after the initial Ramirez deal fell apart. But either way, Stanton doesn't impress me tremendously - big power and little contact is something to build on when you're that young, but it's a shaky base. He's going to have some very difficult transitions, especially once he gets to AA.

A kid in lo-A who misses most of the pitches thrown by guys who'll never make the high minors? Stanton's a nice prospect, but there's a significant chance his value is as good as it'll ever get.

True, he could be the next Brian Dopirak. Or the next Juan Gonzalez. I miss Joaquin Andujar, who knew as much about projecting as me, MGL, Nate Silver, and Szym combined.

"Youneverknow"

The rebuilding effort in Baltimore has stalled. Getting something for the overrated George Sherrill would've been nice, but the real problem is that they didn't move Brian Roberts.

This, to me, is one of the biggest headlines of the trade deadline.

The Orioles did nothing. It's August 1st and Aubrey Huff -- having a monster year -- is still an Oriole. Brian Roberts is still an Oriole. George Sherrill -- who people claimed the Orioles were being smart by turning him into a Closer so they could pump up his perceived value and move him at the deadline -- is still an Oriole. Sherrill is an "All Star" and has 30 saves, and he's still an Oriole. Even Luke Scott might have been dealt if this were a rebuilding effort in earnest.

And then there are the lesser players like Millar and Hernandez, who teams may have thrown a live arm in the low levels of them minors in order to acquire. The Yankees might have looked at Hernandez before realizing that I-Rod was available.

Perry is right. The alleged "rebuilding effort" has stalled.

The Orioles did nothing.

A lot of sellers didn't sell. I wonder if MLB has reached the point that prospects are valued so highly, it's becoming harder and harder to deal vets for anyone on a team's top 10 prospect list. Even the team's that did trade prospects didn't really give up their top, ML ready guys. I think we may need to reassess things.

What is Baltimore's win curve?

So the Dbacks are losers for not trading Conor Jackson for Teixeira? Good thinking. They would block Tracy at 1st and would have Chris Burke in left. Good thinking, Dayn. Good thinking.

Tell me how they could have handled it better?

It seemed pretty clear that Gammons was getting his stories from the Red Sox FO. These were stories that hadn't been told before, and they suddenly came out when the Red Sox got angry with Manny and decided to trade him. I have no real problem with rebutting his public claims publicly, and certainly no problem with fining him for that shove (a fine was probably too light a punishment), but I didn't see any need to take their further grievances with Manny to the public as they did through a series of anonymous leaks. That's where I think they were acting out of anger rather than their team's best interests.

How were they going to win with Manny dogging plays and turning bloop singles into triples the rest of the year, pissing off all his teammates? How were they going to do that? I would love to hear about it.

Those are good reasons to trade him, not good reasons to tear him apart in the press. That served no purpose other than satiating a need for revenge, and it was the wrong thing to do.

Luckily, Theo did a great job with the trade and didn't let himself be hamstrung by the weak bargaining position those leaks stuck him in.

Matt that wasn't anger, it was sleaziness. They were trying to turn the fans off Manny -- and it appears to have worked. As I said, dirtiest owners since Charley Comiskey.

It was blatantly obvious the stuff about Manny taking 3 pitches from Rivera was planted by the FO. And it was obvious it was done in an attempt to weaken Manny in the eyes of the fans.

What is Baltimore's win curve?

I read somewhere that a "source" claims the Orioles' FO sees "value" in playing near .500... and don;t want to alienate the fans by tearing down and rebuilding while they have a reasonable competitive (ie .500) product on the field. IOW the same old Angelos crap.

It was blatantly obvious the stuff about Manny taking 3 pitches from Rivera was planted by the FO.

I'm a huge Manny-apologizer but watching that live, it sure looked funny. Impossible to prove, of course.

A lot of sellers didn't sell. I wonder if MLB has reached the point that prospects are valued so highly, it's becoming harder and harder to deal vets for anyone on a team's top 10 prospect list.

Teams, in any sport, always copycat what works in the recent past (or currently). We've got Tampa in 1st, Milwaukee flirting with it and being good last year, the Phillies looking for their 2nd straight division title, the Twins challenging for a division title and Arizona winning their division last year and leading this year, all with a core of mainly homegrown talent or young players acquired for top talent. Seems to me that's whats going on here. Plus the economy has to be affecting teams to an extent, and young players are inherently cheaper.

Note that the Red Sox FO succeeded in creating the widespread narrative that Ramirez "had to go."

Peter Gammons handed Mo Vaughn an MVP in 1995, and 13 years later he becomes a willing pawn in the systematic destruction of Ramirez's reputation in advance of a trade.

Gammons is alleging that Ramirez "forgot which knee" was hurt. Gammons should explain the factual basis for that claim, or not make it at all.

I read somewhere that a "source" claims the Orioles' FO sees "value" in playing near .500... and don;t want to alienate the fans by tearing down and rebuilding while they have a reasonable competitive (ie .500) product on the field. IOW the same old Angelos crap.

Obviously, given that Angelos has been building .450-.480 teams for years without actually retooling, it's perfectly fair to find this explanation worthless, but it's not a terrible idea on the merits. I think it's likely that it helps your good young players develop if there's a more positive, winning environment around them, and if you can pay back your fans for their loyalty by not sucking completely, that's got value too.

The problem is finding the right balance - to me, keeping Millar and Scott makes sense under this strategy of retooling without sucking, keeping Roberts makes little sense and keeping Sherrill is plain and simple idiocy. Which, of course, suggests that the Orioles are still stuck in that Angelos cycle. Not quite as badly as in the past, but they need structural change before they're likely to start winning.

What is Baltimore's win curve?

Don't hold your breath for an answer in a Manny thread, GGC.

When you have some evidence that all the Manny stories were planted and not due to the reporters themselves doing their due diligence by following up on the myriad Manny incidents, I would love to hear about that too.

They suddenly all did their due diligence in the week before Manny was traded? Peter Gammons, whose MO has always been to repeat uncritically whatever he hears from his sources, suddenly turned investigative reporter? Your theory makes no sense given the timing of the articles.

Yeah, sure it was, sj. And the story about A-Rod and Madonna was planted by the NY FO to weaken his image in the eyes of the fans too.

You know just because you write two things in teh same sentence, it doesn't mean they are related.

Gammons is alleging that Ramirez "forgot which knee" was hurt. Gammons should explain the factual basis for that claim, or not make it at all.

His work is sloppy, he does this all the time, he claimed Joba asked ARod for permission to throw at Youk last year, with no basis in fact whatsoever.

Peter Gammons has become a joke.

I read somewhere that a "source" claims the Orioles' FO sees "value" in playing near .500... and don;t want to alienate the fans by tearing down and rebuilding while they have a reasonable competitive (ie .500) product on the field. IOW the same old Angelos crap.

If there's value in finishing .500, it must have popped up between now and 2006. I don't know if the Gnats' presence changed the equation.

We probably shouldn't treat the FO as a monolithic entity when it comes to the leaks, and assume that it's all coordinated, either amongst the ownership group (Henry, Werner, Lucchino are all very different personalities) or with the baseball operations department run by Epstein. Lucchino is the hatchet man in the bunch, so my default assumption is that the most damaging material always comes from him, whether its about Manny, or Pedro, or Nomar. And he doesn't seem to limit himself to just the players in that regard - let's not forget all the anonymously-sourced Theo-bashing anecdotes/quotes that made it into the media when his contract was up.

I wouldn't be surprised if Theo is raging behind the scenes about the leaks, because it made it that much harder for him to pull off Magnum.

I wouldn't be surprised if Theo is raging behind the scenes about the leaks, because it made it that much harder for him to pull off Magnum.

I'd certainly like to think that, and it has a pretty clear logic. I wouldn't put it beyond the baseball ops people to get angry and give a few dumb anonymous leads to their favored sources, though. Gammons, in particular, has a poor relationship with Lucchino, and was most likely getting his stories from Henry or the baseball people, I think.

Did Theo give a press conference on the trade? I'd be interested to see how that goes.

The Orioles aren't likely to finish at .500 with the current roster, so I don't think that's a very good explanation for why they didn't move anyone.

I'm disappointed that they didn't make any trades, but I'm willing to buy the line from Andy that they didn't get any offers that were worth doing.

The only player who I think they would be selling high on is Aubrey Huff, and there was apparently zero interest in him for whatever reason. He can also be moved in August is a contender changes their mind.

Hopefully they'll be very active in August, this offseason, and next trade deadline. I only have so much patience to give.

Anyone have a link to a list of all or most the Manny being Manny stories through the years, preferably with some indication of which ones have more validity?

Actually, no it didn't. It didn't seem clear at all. He could have gotten his info from some of the players who have been angry with Manny for playing like a dog and who wanted to send a strong message to him they weren't going to put up with his crap anymore. Did you ever consider that angle, Mr. Conspiracy-theory?

But I thought the reporters were just doing their due diligence! Now Manny's teammates are undercutting their front office. Shocking stuff.

And, of course, I don't think it was a conspiracy. I think that several front office people let their (arguably, likely justified) anger at Manny get the better of them. It makes no sense as conspiracy - the leaks only hurt the club and Theo's chances of making a good trade. The leaks aren't justifiable, but they seem like a crime of passion more than anything.

You guys keep referring to Magnum. I'm totally missing the reference. I don't see Darren or MCoA as fans of the TV show.

Magnum.

which one of his teammates leaked the MRI reports?

...but I can't, because I have an unnatural, irrational manlove for manny and can't think rationally about th3e whole situation.

What is your problem, dude? I'm disagreeing with you, adding a small amount of snark, and you just go over the top like Jim Carrey on methedrine. Slow down, take a breath.

The problem is finding the right balance - to me, keeping Millar and Scott makes sense under this strategy of retooling without sucking, keeping Roberts makes little sense and keeping Sherrill is plain and simple idiocy. Which, of course, suggests that the Orioles are still stuck in that Angelos cycle.

I couldn't disagree more. Sherrill and Scott are exactly the kind of players you don't want to trade at the deadline because they are cheap and under team control for 3 and 4 more years, respectively. Deadline deals place an emphasis on current value over long term value, so I think it makes more sense to deal those two in the offseason.

Roberts is a tough one because WARP and VORP and the like all say he's one of the most valuable players in baseball, but he's not percieved that way by the baseball community, and there's no chance in hell that he'd fetch a package like Tex got at the deadline last year.

Should Andy hold on and hope that someone will pay for Roberts' true value, or should he just cash him in for whatever he can get, or should he extend him, or should he hold onto him and take the draft picks after 2009? I truly don't think there's an easy answer to that one.

Millar is a free agent after this year, and he should be traded for anything resembling a C- prospect. I doubt any team is offering even that much, but there's still a good chance he goes in August.

Not that you have much credibility to begin with, but when you keep making that silly ARod/Madonna post, it slips a little anyway.

Hey, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a teammate who tipped off the Post photographer last year on when the best time would be to stake out certain hotel elevators in Toronto if they wanted a shot of A-Rod with a stripper.

I'd certainly like to think that, and it has a pretty clear logic.

...but I can't, because I have an unnatural, irrational manlove for manny and can't think rationally about the whole situation.

Ok, let's revisit this.

-Chip said that he thought that Epstein was angry about the leaks, and the leaks were probably the responsibility of Lucchino.
-I said that was plausible, and that as an Epstein fanboy I'd like to think he and his people were blameless, but I have reasons to doubt it
-You lash out inexplicably and say that I should think the leaks were Lucchino's fault and not Epstein's, after spending the rest of the thread claiming that the front office was innocent in all of this

So not only was your tone ludicrously out of place, but your claim contradicted everything you'd said previously.

*adds Zoolander to list of movies to watch to understand BTF*

Don't hold your breath for an answer in a Manny thread, GGC.

Manny's received more coverage than Favre lately. At the moment I find the Baltimore story more interesting. MCoA made some intersting points as Baltimore's shadow GM.

*adds Zoolander to list of movies to watch to understand BTF*


Zoolander is worth watching on it's own merits. I thought it would be stupid when it first came out, but I caught it on TV one day and it was hilarious.

MCoA made some intersting points as Baltimore's shadow GM.

So did DK - I didn't realize the Sherrill was still an indentured servant. That makes keeping him around make a lot more sense. And he's got a point about Roberts - he's massively underrated, and if the market wasn't there, it wasn't there. If you can't beat two draft picks for Roberts, you keep him, and I guess the 2B market was pretty weak.

I think he's wrong about Millar - the Orioles look like they're having more fun this year than ever before, and I think a lot of that atmosphere can be attributed to Millar. He's a jackass, but he's a hell of a teammate.

which one of his teammates leaked the MRI reports?

After we learn that, I'd be interested to discover which of his teammates leaked:

* that the FO wasn't going to pick up his 2009 option;
* that the FO threatened him with an unpaid suspension;
* that MRIs were performed on both knees;
* that Scott Boras intervened after the traveling secretary incident.

All reported by Gammons.

Then I'd be interested to hear how a guy who allegedly quit on the team and begged out of games because of his contract situation was motivated enough to be one of the top hitters in the league and to be second on the team in games played.

So not only was your tone ludicrously out of place, but your claim contradicted everything you'd said previously.

Uh, yeah, that's what he does.

How were they going to win with Manny dogging plays and turning bloop singles into triples the rest of the year, pissing off all his teammates? How were they going to do that? I would love to hear about it.

There was a problem to be dealt with but trashing him through direct quotes and leaks to media was an unprofessional way to handle it. For an example of professionally handling a problem player, see Jose Guillen.

The Angels management, Stoneman/Scioscia said not one word about him until a final decision was made. The media didn't really find out he was a problem until after he was suspended. And as for extracting value from a weakened position, Juan Rivera and Maicer Izturis are still playing key roles on the Angels.

I agree that Manny started all this, but the front office did not handle the situation professionally. They lost their cool, and antagonized Manny, fanning the flames that led to more poor behavior on his part.

I don't see it that way. I think this was a cold, calculated campaign by Manny Ramirez and Scott Boras to get himself to free agency, and the Red Sox understood that perfectly and handled it perfectly. Recognizing that he was willing to do anything to get them to either tear up the two option years themselves, or force a trade to a team that was willing to do so, the Red Sox realized that their best interests were served by the latter option. If they just gave up the option years for nothing, they keep Manny for 2008, yes, maybe even a happy Manny because he got what he wanted, but then he walks away and they have to replace him. I guarantee you they assessed their options for replacing Manny Ramirez in 2009, and decided Jason Bay was better than any alternatives they might acquire in the post-season. So by doing it this way -- by letting events unfold towards the trade (even pushing them in that direction) -- they don't leave themselves uncovered for 2009 (which tearing up the options would have done). They responded to Manny Ramirez by using him as an asset worth trading, instead of just giving away.

That is smart, and it is entirely business-like. All the rest is just so much smoke and noise. Entertaining, in its way, but smoke and noise.

which one of his teammates leaked the MRI reports?

Was the MRI report "leaked?" I thought the FO (or Tito) came out and announced the reports were clean (I found a quote from Tito speaking directly about the results). Now you can question whether that was appropriate (it probably wasn't, even if it was fueled by their understandable frustration), but it goes against the whole leaked MO that is accepted as indisputable fact.

Manny's received more coverage than Favre lately. At the moment I find the Baltimore story more interesting. MCoA made some intersting points as Baltimore's shadow GM.

It probably is. I was just alluding to the fact that was the same basic question you couldn't get answered in a Bonds thread.

I don't see it that way. I think this was a cold, calculated campaign by Manny Ramirez and Scott Boras to get himself to free agency, and the Red Sox understood that perfectly and handled it perfectly.

They weren't going to pick up his option anyway. We know this because one of his teammates told Gammons.

They responded to Manny Ramirez by using him as an asset worth trading, instead of just giving away.

Sam - you didn't talk about the wide variety of front office leaks that made public that the relationship between Manny and the FO was broken, and made public that the team had no choice but to make a deal. The entire argument here is about whether the front office (a) is to blame for these leaks, a question I find incredibly fanboyish, and (b) whether the front office was in the wrong for taking their grievances to the press. My interpretation is that a bunch of people, Lucchino, Henry, some baseball ops people, got fed up with Manny and let their desire for revenge dictate their actions, instead of focusing on the best interests of the ballclub.

It worked out in the end, but I think it's still reasonable to criticize the process.

Then I'd be interested to hear how a guy who quit on the team and begged out of games because of his contract situation was motivated enough to be one of the top hitters in the league and to be second on the team in games played.

I don't buy the whole quitting on the team and begging out of games part. As I said before, a 36 year old outfielder who plays 140-150 games a year should not be questioned when he needs a day off here and there. Baseball is a tough game, we can count on one hand the number of outfielders with as much mileage on their knees that Manny has who can play anywhere close to as many games as he does. When accusations of malingering appear, I can't help but notice that the player in question is usually non-white.

As for Manny dogging it on running to first, that's pretty obvious. But also nothing new. He also doesn't run out balls he hits off the wall that he thinks are homers.

Certainly Boras was conspiring to get rid of the options, because he made no money from them. However Manny was a model citizen for the first half of the season (maybe he shoved the trainer, but that was an FO leak, the first of many). Manny being Manny meant high fives in the middle of double plays.

If they'd exercised the first option at the ASB, as they should have, there would have been no problem (Manny's first press statement that they couldn't be trusted was after they hadn't done this.) There was almost nothing to be gained by waiting till the last minute to exercise the option, while holding it over Manny and then not exercising it damaged his value, because it prevented Boras from undertaking the 2 month pre-marketing campaign that he undoubtedly now plans.

If the Sox FO were competent gentlemen, like Dan Duquette, Eddie Collins or Ed Barrow (I agree there have been few others) this would never have happened.

EDIT: Now that I think about it, where the hell did you come up with tyhe Lucchino thing? Are you on meds about this, and the meds have triggered conspiracy hallucinations? What?

Chip (post 60), said that he thought Lucchino was responsible for the leaks:

Lucchino is the hatchet man in the bunch, so my default assumption is that the most damaging material always comes from him, whether its about Manny, or Pedro, or Nomar. And he doesn't seem to limit himself to just the players in that regard - let's not forget all the anonymously-sourced Theo-bashing anecdotes/quotes that made it into the media when his contract was up.

I wouldn't be surprised if Theo is raging behind the scenes about the leaks, because it made it that much harder for him to pull off Magnum.

In post 62, I said that I wasn't sure I agreed with Chip, because of the location of the leaks:

I'd certainly like to think that, and it has a pretty clear logic. I wouldn't put it beyond the baseball ops people to get angry and give a few dumb anonymous leads to their favored sources, though. Gammons, in particular, has a poor relationship with Lucchino, and was most likely getting his stories from Henry or the baseball people, I think.

In post 67, you quoted my first line, and said:

I'd certainly like to think that, and it has a pretty clear logic.

...but I can't, because I have an unnatural, irrational manlove for manny and can't think rationally about the whole situation.

I guess your defense is that you felt like insulting me and didn't care whether you were making any sense. Your post, though, is clearly saying that I am irrational to believe that Lucchino isn't the only one responsible for hte leaks.

MCoA:

Christina Kahrl at BPro has Bay still being eligible for arbitration in 2010. Yes or no? Does anyone else know?

The entire argument here is about whether the front office (a) is to blame for these leaks, a question I find incredibly fanboyish, and (b) whether the front office was in the wrong for taking their grievances to the press. My interpretation is that a bunch of people, Lucchino, Henry, some baseball ops people, got fed up with Manny and let their desire for revenge dictate their actions, instead of focusing on the best interests of the ballclub.

You are assuming that their motive was a "deisre for revenge," or even being "fed up with Manny," or even that it was an emotional in nature. I am positing a very different posture: it was ALL business, on both ends. Manny was acting the way he was acting (be just completely impossible, up to and including assaulting a club official) to force their hand in one of two ways, either of which gets him to free agency. If they take Option A, they lose him for nothing. That's not good business. So they take Option B: a trade. But how do they get to Option B? Well, if they just trade Manny F'ing Ramirez out of nowhere, people like Ray throughout Red Sox Nation go completely batshit crazy with fury. (Well, some of them still are, but as things have unfolded, there's at least a lot of folks saying, "Good riddance." It just hasn't worked with everyone -- as Ray shows.) So instead, we get this weeks-long drama in which everyone plays his part, and Manny gets what he wants, and the Red Sox get the trade that replaces him adequately (Bay) instead of letting him go for nothing.

They didn't act out of emotion, or anger, or revenge. They were setting the stage for the trade they had to make, in the interests of the franchise. It's business. Oh, and if they can turn the knife in on Manny for being an #######, too, that's just a bonus. But it's not the reason.

Millar is a free agent after this year, and he should be traded for anything resembling a C- prospect.

I assume that Millar can only play 1B any more but he might be an interesting pickup for the Phils as a PH, if he could be happy in that role. If Feliz is down for the year, they can dump Cervanek (sp?). Even if Feliz is not, they could dump So. Unfortunately, the Phils FO and Chollie seem to have some collective man love for Taguchi. They think he's a great baserunner and defensive OF, neither of which traits he has shown to date. Millar would be more advantageous in the post-season than Taguchi would be.

I'm with Sam. Although I still think that there was a certain overkill nature to the leaks, even if they were intended to make a trade palatable to the fanbase. But that overkill was just Larry Being Larry.

I wouldn't love it, but a series of leaks after Manny left would serve that purpose just fine. Burning the bridges beforehand just weakens your bargaining posture and badly hurts your team if you can't pull off a trade - at 2 pm yesterday, according to Globe reports, the Red Sox were preparing to keep Manny and handle the issues in house. You don't always end up making a trade, and leaving your team in the position of having the rest of baseball know you're desperate, and of having little recourse to clean things up if trade talks don't pan out, seems like a huge, huge risk to take, all for PR purposes. I don't understand why PR should be valued over baseball concerns, and I think the Red Sox are a lot smarter than that - which is why I attribute the mistakes to emotion, especially given that it was a highly charged situation, and apparently no one in the front office was getting any sleep.

I don't get it. So Manny pushed around the traveling secretary as a business move? I'm going to apply Occam's razor and stick with my theory Manny pushed that guy around because he's a jackass bully.

It probably is. I was just alluding to the fact that was the same basic question you couldn't get answered in a Bonds thread.

Actually, it was an A's thread, but good memory. I knew the answer that time and was just using the lawyerly tactic of asking a question that you know the answer to. When I see someone suggest blowing up a team, I usually look at Genarro's stuff to get a ballpark idea if it makes sense.

However Manny was a model citizen for the first half of the season (maybe he shoved the trainer, but that was an FO leak, the first of many).

WTF? Manny was a model citizen? Shoving someone doesn't count because the Redsox shouldn't have let it become public knowledge??????

I assume that Millar can only play 1B any more but he might be an interesting pickup for the Phils as a PH, if he could be happy in that role.

I think Millar would be happy to play for a winner, although he does still consider himself a starter.

Who's playing 3B for the Phils if Feliz is done? Mora would probably waive his no-trade to go to Philly, and he'll clear waivers easily.

Christina Kahrl at BPro has Bay still being eligible for arbitration in 2010. Yes or no? Does anyone else know?

According to Cot's, Bay's service time at the beginning of the year was 4 years, 80 days. That would mean that he will pass six years of service time after 2009, and become a free agent, if I know my transaction rules. So, looks like Kahrl is wrong. (The Red Sox could offer arbitration, but Bay would have the option of declining.)

Manny dogging plays and faking injuries did NOT play to his economic interests.

Look, you'll never find me defending those things. But the fact is, from his POV, the incentive was to make sure that the Red Sox wanted absolutely nothing more to do with him, and would send him to a team that would accept his critical condition: tear up the options. Since that is exactly what happened, it's hard to argue with success. Manny Ramirez is economically better off today than he was before he did those things. At least if you believe that he stands to have more in guaranteed money coming his way after he signs his next contract than he would have with the 2009 option ($20M). The proof isn't in the pudding. It's in the Dodgerdogs.

Just saw the Wikipedia list of Manny being Manny moments. Doesn't seem like that much over the course of a long career, unless the list is not close to complete. Maybe a lot of older events have been left out? Did he not have many Manny moments earlier in his career? Were they not as noticeable? Or is there more media scrutiny now over his every action?

Before this year, had Manny ever high fived a player during a play?

However Manny was a model citizen for the first half of the season (maybe he shoved the trainer, but that was an FO leak, the first of many).

Excuse me?

edit...not that your comment wasn't stupid enough, but...you mean he shoved a trainer, too?

As some have pointed out, departures were messy before the current regime took over (see Vaughn, Mo and Clemens, Roger.) Does Dick Bersciani still work for the team? I think he's the common thread here.

If they'd exercised the first option at the ASB, as they should have,

Why would they ever exercise one of Manny's options? Theo has clearly felt he can spend Manny's salary better elsewhere and he's felt that way for five years. And he did. Bay is a clear upgrade. Today Bay is the better hitter by EQA, likely to remain so in the future, and clearly the better defender.

And did the FO leak the story about Manny pushing down the traveling secretary in front of hundreds of people? Yep, all of Manny's bad behavior was leaked by an FO conspiracy desperate to do what? Encourage malingering and acting out before they ship him out at years end? Manny was acting out because he wanted a new contract, or both options picked up, and the FO finally got fed up.

And anyone who inputs an injury year into Zips and expects the output to be anything other than garbage would likely trade Carlos Quentin to the white sox for a minor prospect.

As I said, dirtiest owners since Charley Comiskey.

Howie Spira feels you may have forgotten someone in between.

DKDC is absolutely right. I'm disappointed that the Orioles didn't move Sherrill or any of the other vets, but the reality is that we have no idea what MacPhail was being offered. Most teams seem to view top prospects as virtually untouchable at this point, and if the best offer for Sherrill was similar in value to what the Nats received for Rauch, it's hard to fault him for standing pat. Sherrill isn't ancient and he'll be cheap and under control for several more years. Scott has been excellent, but as with Roberts, it's entirely possible that MacPhail wasn't offered anything close to a fair package of prospects for him. And supposedly Huff drew zero interest because he's only seen as a DH, and there wasn't much of a market for one (the Angels were the only possibility AFAICT, and they went for Teixiera instead).

The other issue is that the Orioles might not be as far from contention as a lot of people think. They'll have a lot of money to spend this offseason, and if they can sign a top bat (Teixiera or Dunn), a top starter (Sheets or Sabathia), and even a replacement level SS (they're way below replacement this year), they'll be in pretty good shape. Wieters will be the starter next year, and he might be a top 10 catcher immediately. Jones has looked better and better as the season has progressed, and Markakis might continue to improve.

Obviously there's a fair amount of fanboyism here, but in baseball things can change quickly.

Who's playing 3B for the Phils if Feliz is done? Mora would probably waive his no-trade to go to Philly, and he'll clear waivers easily.
Right now it's a Bruntlett/Dobbs platoon. Bruntlett is their only backup MI and they use him in the OF a bit. Dobbs seems to struggle as a starter but is excellent coming off the bench and doesn't have much of a glove for 3B either. I had forgotten about Mora -- I know that he has been slowly browning in the toaster for quite a while but has not quite reached the final destination of toastiness. A couple of questions, is he signed beyond this year and how's his defense holding up?

And on topic, Sam M. sounds pretty cogent in his analysis.

109--Quentin went undrafted in the BTF Lounge Fantasy League.

Roberts is a tough one because WARP and VORP and the like all say he's one of the most valuable players in baseball, but he's not percieved that way by the baseball community, and there's no chance in hell that he'd fetch a package like Tex got at the deadline last year.

You said it. The scuttlebutt (posted by someone who says he's George Sherrill's brother) is that MacPhail received one offer for Roberts: Andy LaRoche, one for one.

Roberts has essentially the same contract as Bay, is 11 months older, and trails him in Runs Created (63 to 75) and RARP (27.0 to 42.1), but does that difference really equate to Craig Hansen, Brandon Moss and Bryan Morris?