Cubs

Obviously, the Cubs must re-up with Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood. They also need to add an impact right fielder, now that Kosuke Fukudome is going to be part of a platoon arrangement in center. Preferably that right fielder will have strong OBP skills from the left side of the plate. Adam Dunn would work, as would Raul Ibanez. Should the Padres decline their option on Brian Giles, he'd also be a good fit. And even though he's not right-handed, Manny Ramirez would of course greatly improve the Cubs.

Not sure if they should resign Dempster. Unless they have a good reason to believe that Dempster did something different this year, they need to let him walk after this fluke year.

This is the first I've heard of a CF platoon involving Fukudome. Has anyone else reported that the Cubs are doing it, rather than speculating or suggesting? If true, we need to avoid Ibanez and Ramirez, and maybe jump in the Dunn bidding. I'd rather have Sabathia than Dunn, but I don't think the Cubs will outbid the Yankees for him.

I guess he's not a Lars Anderson fan. Also why is Burrell the best option for the Phillies in LF but not for the Dodgers, Cubs or Mets?

White Sox
The White Sox need a second baseman and a starting pitcher. At second, Orlando Hudson is the top prize, but a reunion with Ray Durham is a nifty fallback option. In the rotation, the usual suspects—Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, Randy Johnson, Oliver Perez—should be considered.

So it doesn't appear Johnson will be heading back to Arizona? Who might his other suitors include? I think he could still help a team in the back of their rotation -- including the Sox -- but would Randy be interested in heading to the South Side, or American League in general? (This isn't so much a comment on the leagues' stregths as it is comfort level. Since the Mariners sent him to Houston a decade ago, he's spent most of his time in the NL.) Whatever, I'd love to see him reach the 300-win level; I only hope his journey in those final steps doesn't resemble Early Wynn's.

It will be a cold day in baseball history, if anyone pays Adam Dunn more than $1 to protect their right field defensively.

And even though he's not right-handed, Manny Ramirez would of course greatly improve the Cubs.

?

Is Varitek shot defensively?

No, not shot. His arm is below average, but it's always been below average. He's still above average at preventing WP/PB, but he used to be better. And, of course, he's the gratast captain pitch caller in forever.

It's his bat that's shot. He can't hit a fastball anymore without guessing.

No, not shot. His arm is below average, but it's always been below average. He's still above average at preventing WP/PB, but he used to be better. And, of course, he's the gratast captain pitch caller in forever.

It's his bat that's shot. He can't hit a fastball anymore without guessing.

Thanks.

White Sox

The White Sox need a second baseman and a starting pitcher. At second, Orlando Hudson is the top prize, but a reunion with Ray Durham is a nifty fallback option. In the rotation, the usual suspects—Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, Randy Johnson, Oliver Perez—should be considered.

1. There is nothing nifty about bringing in a 36-year-old to play second base. No thanks -- I'd go with Getz and/or Nix over Durham at this point, or try to get someone like Phillips from the Reds.

2. Randy Johnson? Ugh(ly). He has the same problem as Lowe, but even moreso: he spent last year facing a bunch of crappy hitters. Baseball Prospectus says that the average hitter Johnson faced last year hit .252/.319/.388, the worst of any MLB starter. Of his 184 IP, 51 were against the two worst offenses in baseball. Another 20 were against the Rockies.

3. I don't see any reason to get rid of Vazquez when it just means having to bring in someone else -- Lowe? Burnett? Perez? -- who probably won't be any better. Yes, Burnett has a higher career ERA+, but since he became a starter in 2001, he's averaged about 156 innings pitched per year. Vazquez has averaged about 216 innings pitched per year over that same period. I'll take the slightly lower ERA+ for the 7-8 extra starts.

The article refuses to open but based on the brief remark I have severe doubts about Adam getting a hefty offer. With the general economy as backdrop Dunn is the equivalent of a high level middle manager. He has skills but to get a job he is going to have to take a step back from expectations. Only legit superstars will see legit money.

Mayonaise -

I've read the Fukudome to CF thing in a couple of other places, so it might be true. Fukudome chose the Cubs because Piniella said he wouldn't have to play CF, but maybe Fukudome has backed off on that given his poor performance last year. I think Dunn, Ramirez, or Ibanez all make sense if they put them in LF and move Soriano to RF. This assumes Soriano can handle RF.

I agree that resiging Dempster is a bad move. He has a big injury history, he's going to be expensive, and last year screams fluke. I've been reading that the Cubs have emerged as the top bidders for Peavy; that would be the end of Dempster in Chicago I think.

I would love to see Edmonds patrolling center full time for the Yankees in a train wreck sort of way. Griffey too would be good fun. Honestly, I think they have to make a run at a trade for someone legit who can play both sides of the ball. The great Yankee teams were built on solid or above average defensive players at key positions who could hit the snot out of the ball (C, SS, CF). And they have the money to do so.

I'd hate to see this as a Jay fan, but I wonder what it would take to get Vernon Wells out of Toronto. He really seemed to be back to his old self the last 2 monthes or so.

The Red Sox have a bunch of guys who would project to be between replacement and average (for a C) with a bat: not only Ross but also Kottaras and Brown, and Mark Wagner at AA. I'd just plan to go with a committee at C for next season, let Tek go and get the pick(s), and see what offers pop up during the season.

I dislike strategies like that outlined in #9. The first reason is that George Kottaras and Mark Wagner do not project as better than replacement level. Wagner projects significantly below, and Kottaras does as well once you take into account his contact problems.

The second reason is that strategies like that require the team to take on unnecessary risk. When you have unknown quantities who may well not be able to beat replacement level, throwing them at the wall to see who sticks requires sitting with a gaping, multi-win hole at catcher until you can be confident a guy hasn't stuck. If you don't pick right in the first place, you're going to get very bad performance, and your best-case scenario is averageness.

The Red Sox need to be aggressive in finding a good catcher.

I agree with Harvey for once. Dunn can get 'a' job done (power, OBP), but it's time to lower expectations financially from his end, and realistically from fans who wish him upon their team.

No, not shot. His arm is below average, but it's always been below average. He's still above average at preventing WP/PB, but he used to be better. And, of course, he's the gratast captain pitch caller in forever.

I've got Varitek at +5 defensively. As a hitter, I'm projecting .226/.330/.381, and as crappy as that looks, it's only 11 runs below average. Replacement level for a catcher is more like 30 runs below average. Varitek ain't worth Posada money, like Boras is telling people, but for one more year at least he's probably worth close to 10 million.

I have severe doubts about Adam getting a hefty offer. With the general economy as backdrop Dunn is the equivalent of a high level middle manager. He has skills but to get a job he is going to have to take a step back from expectations. Only legit superstars will see legit money.

If he's going to be cheaper than he would have been last year, I hope the A's sign him. They won't of course, but whoever does will have a good contract on their hands in a couple of years. I guess this goes for most players whose market has fallen off for reasons relating to the economy.

I've got Varitek at +5 defensively. As a hitter, I'm projecting .226/.330/.381, and as crappy as that looks, it's only 11 runs below average. Replacement level for a catcher is more like 30 runs below average.

I'm going to take the under on that projection. I'm quite convinced his decline was qualitative.

Bernie Williams's price tag has probably droppped some

I've got Varitek at +5 defensively. As a hitter, I'm projecting .226/.330/.381, and as crappy as that looks, it's only 11 runs below average. Replacement level for a catcher is more like 30 runs below average. Varitek ain't worth Posada money, like Boras is telling people, but for one more year at least he's probably worth close to 10 million.

Yeah, I've got him projected at .235/.334/.384, which would be +12 compared to a replacement level catcher over 500 PA. I've got him projected at +6 defensively too, so he still projects as a useful player.

I don't see a big market out there for him though, and I think if Boston offers him arbitration there's a decent chance he accepts it.

Cappy can still hit lefties a little bit, and a platoon might be semi-OK if no non-lopsided deal is
out there for a new Red Sox everyday catcher. The occasional (weekly?) start against a righty finess pitcher
might be slotted-in also. Theo/Tito might be able to cobble together a season's worth of
ABH( above black hole) catcher offense that way, and on the cheap too.

And I really think the pitchers like to throw to him. That means something too.

I hope the Big Unit stays in the NL. The absolutely gawky spectacle of watching him hit is worth the price of admission.

You can project whatever you want. Varitek is cooked.

teddy-

I basically agree with your post 21. My concern is whether Varitek is willing to accept a part time role. (This isn't a knock on Varitek. Basically no one in MLB with a career like Tek's is ever self-critical enough to accept a part time role.) There's a big danger in taking a star regular and making him a part-timer. I'm hopeful Tito could pull it off in the clubhouse, but it's a risk that I can understand the Sox not being willing to take.

1. There is nothing nifty about bringing in a 36-year-old to play second base. No thanks -- I'd go with Getz and/or Nix over Durham at this point, or try to get someone like Phillips from the Reds.

I don't want to see Orlando Hudson on the Sox, either. Take him out of Arizona, and he's ordinary at best.

And even though he's not right-handed, Manny Ramirez would of course greatly improve the Cubs.



?

They mean that he's right-handed, or not left-handed.

The consensus is that the Cubs' biggest need this offseason will be a lefty bat. Personally, I think they need to go after starting pitching, whether they keep Dempster or not.

I vehemently disagree that David Ross would be an acceptable full-time starter.

24-some are, maybe he will be one of them, self critical enough.

When Perry says that it is obvious that the Cubs must re-sign Dempster and Wood, well, that tells me there isn't much point to reading the rest of this article. With Carlos Marmol in house for cheap, but not for much longer, it is anything but obvious that the Cubs must sign Wood. I love Kerry Wood, but is that really the smart play for the team?

People keep talking about the Cubs filling their lefty bat need in right field. What about trading Derrek Lee and signing a lefty bat, like Adam Dunn, to play first base? I know that Lee has a no-trade, but I would think it would be worth exploring, since I'm not sure if the rest of the major leagues has noticed that he's declining big-time.

Biff is correct. Ross is a great part-time guy. He would be a fantastic player if he could play some left and first along with some catching.

As a full-time guy he will drive you nuts.

I dislike strategies like that outlined in #9. The first reason is that George Kottaras and Mark Wagner do not project as better than replacement level. Wagner projects significantly below, and Kottaras does as well once you take into account his contact problems.

The second reason is that strategies like that require the team to take on unnecessary risk. When you have unknown quantities who may well not be able to beat replacement level, throwing them at the wall to see who sticks requires sitting with a gaping, multi-win hole at catcher until you can be confident a guy hasn't stuck. If you don't pick right in the first place, you're going to get very bad performance, and your best-case scenario is averageness.

The other danger is overpaying for someone like Saltamacchia (in terms of a young stud pitcher or three), or re-signing Tek for Boras Bucks, and getting production which isn't any better than what they've got at AAA, which might then become a Lugo-like millstone both in terms of production and/or finances, blocking a better deal which may be available down the line (Minnesota suddenly deciding they can't pay Mauer-sorry Minnesota fan which got POed at me the last time I suggested that). Wagner after a lackluster AA stint probably isn't ready, but don't fall for the old fallacy that a "proven" major leaguer is automatically better than a AAA player. Platoon Kottaras and Brown (which you can do since they bat from opposite sides of the plate), and wait to buy from a position of strength, not because you "have" to for some fallacious reason like keeping up with the Yankees. That isn't really a risk at all because you can harmlessly dump them at the drop of a glove when something worthwhile does come along; you've got it backwards. And most teams would kill for a 85-95 OPS+ hitting catcher, which is what I think those guys would do in a platoon, and isn't any worse than what Tek did last year. I will wait for the ZiPs and other projections however.

Unless they have a good reason to believe that Dempster did something different this year, they need to let him walk after this fluke year.


My Cubs-fan friend said Dempster was throwing a splitter this year, or throwing it more often, or throwing it differently -- I don't remember which. But it's not good for his arm, so the friend conjectured Dempster would stop throwing it once he locked up guaranteed money.