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Saturday, September 06, 2008

FOX Sports: Perry: In Big Apple, Reyes has passed Jeter by

From the handstakingly hilaripus comments section..."I can’t believe someone pays you to trash him!!!! Again, your a knob!!”

And then there’s defense. Jeter, despite constant hosannas from the mainstream media, undeserved Gold Gloves, and the comically partisan objections of Yankee fans, simply isn’t an adequate defender. And he never has been. He’s a great player, and that in part is why people have such a hard time wrapping their heads around the idea that Jeter can’t field his position. So let’s put this another way: in his prime, Jeter was great at every aspect of the game — hitting, running the bases, being a leader, tracking fly balls, showing arm strength, making routine plays — except demonstrating range on ground balls. On this point, the numbers are in total and unflinching agreement. Don’t believe the chorus of statistics? Then use your eyes and watch Jeter, particularly when he’s moving to his left. What you’ll see is a player who has no business manning shortstop. (There’s a reason that his derisive nickname in some quarters is Derek “Past a Diving” Jeter.)

...As for Reyes, he’s much better in the field. He’s not a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, but he’s above average and figures to remain so for some time. And unlike Jeter, he’s got a first step that allows him to get to an acceptable percentage of ground balls hit into his zone. Now let’s put it all together ...

Repoz Posted: September 06, 2008 at 03:57 PM | 14 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsNY MetsNY Yankees

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   1. James SC  Posted: September 06, 2008 at 04:07 PM (#2931299)
I am sorry, is this really even debatable? If Jeter was in his prime this would be an interesting arguement to have, but at this point this isn't even debatable. Reyes is the better SS between the two now and odds are he will be going forward. Uhh duh...

The comments section was the best part, the fact that there were actually fans trashing him for "dissing" Jeter were quite touching in that "Special Olympics" kind of way.
   2. Crashburn Alley  Posted: September 06, 2008 at 04:20 PM (#2931304)
I loved this comment:

Jeter-highest post season batting avg. ever! Reyes-never even been to the post season!


2006?

And I'm fairly sure that Jeter's .309 batting average in the post-season isn't even close to being the best.

EDIT:

Also, this comment is just too ripe for a "your momma" joke:

Dayne Perry probably hasn't had sex in years.
   3. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: September 06, 2008 at 04:25 PM (#2931313)
This is the first season Reyes has been clearly better than Jeter. He was probably better in 2007 because Reyes was excellent defensively last year and that's enough to make up for the difference in offense and league quality.

Jeter's a great player and is still a top-10 shortstop in baseball this season despite his off-season with the bat because of his improved defense.
   4. jwb  Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:20 PM (#2931350)
No love for Addison Maruszak?
   5. Cowboy Popup  Posted: September 06, 2008 at 05:40 PM (#2931355)
...As for Reyes, he’s much better in the field.

Since he's talking about numbers, can anyone provide a defensive stat that shows Reyes as being better in the field this year? I know RZR and ZR favor Jeter. What's the Fielding Bible say?

Oh, and Reyes is outhitting Jeter by a fair margin, it's not neccesary to skimp on the numbers to show Reyes is better, he clearly is, but if you're going to mention defensive stats, you ought to point out that this year, they favor Jeter.
   6. Matt Waters  Posted: September 06, 2008 at 06:47 PM (#2931390)
If Jeter was in his prime this would be an interesting arguement to have


No it wouldn't... Jeter in the late nineties was way better than Reyes today. Get back to me if Reyes ever puts up a 153 OPS+.
   7. Fancy Pants Handle  Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:32 PM (#2931413)
Since he's talking about numbers, can anyone provide a defensive stat that shows Reyes as being better in the field this year? I know RZR and ZR favor Jeter.

RZR not really. Jeter has a small lead in raw RZR .842 to .834. But Reyes has a healthy lead in OOZ plays 33 in 1234 innings to 24 in 1137 innings. There's not much in it obviously, but if anything I would say it's a slight edge to Reyes.

Jeter had an astonishing (for him) start to the season defensively. But he's pretty much been regressing to his old self for a while now. I'd expect that trend to continue till the end of the season, and for Reyes to be pretty much clear by the time October rolls in.

One more thing I want to mention. Reyes has had a lot more chances than Jeter 361 to 298. Which is pretty disproportional to their number of innings. I had a quick glance through the list of SS's, and everyone with similar # of innings to Jeter is well over 300 chances, except for Ryan Theriot. This could obviously just be randon fluctuation, but it could also indicate some form of scoring bias...
   8. SG in ATL  Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:59 PM (#2931447)
RZR not really. Jeter has a small lead in raw RZR .842 to .834. But Reyes has a healthy lead in OOZ plays 33 in 1234 innings to 24 in 1137 innings. There's not much in it obviously, but if anything I would say it's a slight edge to Reyes.

Only if you make assumptions about out of zone chance distributions being normal.

Jeter had an astonishing (for him) start to the season defensively. But he's pretty much been regressing to his old self for a while now.

Maybe RZR says that, but I have Jeter's zone rating peaking at .842 this season on August 2, which is pretty far from the start of the season in my opinion.

But he's pretty much been regressing to his old self for a while now.

I'd agree with this. Since August 3rd his zone rating is .759.

This could obviously just be randon fluctuation, but it could also indicate some form of scoring bias...

Or more likely, it's just non-normal distribution of balls in play. Here's the distribution of ZR chances for MLB and the two NYs.

Pos    MLB    NYM    NYY
1B     9.4
%    10.2%    9.7%
2B    17.6%    16.4%    19.4%
3B    14.8%    14.0%    15.2%
CF    15.7%    16.1%    14.7%
LF    11.9%    12.0%    12.3%
RF    12.5%    13.0%    12.9%
SS    18.1%    18.3%    15.9%


Looks like the Yankees are seeing more chances at 2B and 3B, and fewer at short. I don't see how scoring bias plays into it.

And no, I don't think Jeter is a better defensive player than Reyes.
   9. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: September 06, 2008 at 08:06 PM (#2931458)
Reyes was truly bad defensively earlier this season but has improved considerably in the last month or so. I don't know why he was struggling but he seems to be back to normal lately.
   10. James SC  Posted: September 06, 2008 at 08:59 PM (#2931555)
Reyes was having a rough start to this season across the board, he has been much better for no apparent reason even if he did seem to turn it around right around the same time as some Randolf guy disappeared from the scene.

No it wouldn't... Jeter in the late nineties was way better than Reyes today. Get back to me if Reyes ever puts up a 153 OPS+.


I would agree right now, if we were going to have that debate it is on what I think Reyes will be over the next few years based on his growth path of his career. The end of September last year and the first 6-8 weeks of this year have hurt him considerably in this area, but if he continues the way he has been this year he will be putting up those kind of numbers as well.
   11. Vaux, A.B.D.  Posted: September 06, 2008 at 09:29 PM (#2931597)
Jeter would have to make a lot of un-scored errors for it to be scoring bias. At least, that's the only way it could be scoring bias that I can think of. He might have made 10 un-scored errors, though. When I used to follow the Yankees more closely, he made a lot of them.
   12. what the hell, just use your initials or something  Posted: September 07, 2008 at 08:06 AM (#2931681)
How would un-scored errors even enter into it? Ball in zone, play not made, hurts your ZR. Right? Whether it's scored a hit or an error doesn't matter.
   13. Fancy Pants Handle  Posted: September 07, 2008 at 08:15 AM (#2931684)
Yep, errors aren't really the point. You get biases by variations in the size of the zone, and by other variations from stadium to stadium.

Thanks to SG for the numbers by the way. It does certainly look more like random fluctuation given that data. It was something that struck me when first looking at the numbers, and I thought it would be irresponsible not to point out the possibility.
   14. Orangepeel  Posted: September 07, 2008 at 10:11 AM (#2931718)
"handstakingly hilaripus comments"

I decided to finally make an account to point this out.
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