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Monday, May 12, 2008

FOX Sports: Perry: Many surprises in the 25 Percent Awards

Lee. Perry scratches his name all over the place!

AL MVP — Cliff Lee, Indians

Before we get busy justifying this one, a few words on MVP criteria ... Some fans and voters get hung up on the inane idea that an MVP must come from a contending team. The ballot instructions specifically say that this isn’t the case, and common sense will tell you that, too. After all, dismissing the superior player because his team isn’t successful is, in essence, penalizing him because his teammates aren’t doing their jobs. The only objective stand is to give the MVP to, you know, the best player. Importing any other standard to the process is silly and illogical. Moving on ...

As you might surmise, Lee has been the best pitcher in the American League this season, and he’s also been the best overall player (thus far, it’s been a down year for individual offensive performances in the AL). Sure, position players are generally more valuable than pitchers, but on occasion that’s not the case. The 2008 season to date is just such an occasion. Consider Lee’s numbers: he’s got an RA (runs allowed per nine innings) of 1.01 (!), he’s struck out 39 against only two walks (!!), and he’s given up only one home run in 44.2 innings of work. Certainly, he’s not going to be able to keep runs off the board at such an amazing clip, but it’s quite possible that Lee’s long-awaited breakout season is upon us.

AL Cy Young — Cliff Lee, Indians

Obviously, Lee’s the choice here, for reasons stated above. Wins and losses are a terrible way to evaluate pitchers, but by any standard you’re having a dominant season when you’re on pace for more wins than runs allowed. That’s Lee in 2008.

Repoz Posted: May 12, 2008 at 11:11 PM | 20 comment(s)
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   1. Andrew Edwards Posted: May 13, 2008 at 12:22 AM (#2778634)
For anyone who thinks the comments section here is a little annoying at times, I'd invite you to peruse the comments to this article at the ESPN site. I accidentally read the first few and then couldn't stop, and now my brain hurts.
   2. Shock Posted: May 13, 2008 at 12:38 AM (#2778644)
My favorite:

[Carlos Quentin] leads the AL in home runs with a .303 avg.


...indeed!
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: May 13, 2008 at 12:44 AM (#2778649)
Chris Burke has an OPS+ of 6. And he needed a monster game yesterday (a hit, a walk) to raise it up to 6 from 2. Top that.

By the way, I noticed that Nelson Figueroa is the new name for Brian Lawrence, which was the new name for Dave Williams, which in turn was the new name for Jose Lima. I could've sworn Nelson was different, and better... I don't know, something to do with the fact that he could allow fewer hits on balls in play than Lima... sounded pretty convincing.
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: May 13, 2008 at 12:46 AM (#2778650)
While we're at it: Eric Byrnes's "performance" since he signed his 3 year, $30m extension last summer:

90 GS, 361 AB, 9 HR, 41 RBI, 30 BB, 47 K, 27 SB, 13 GIDP, .235/.307/.382 (.689 OPS)

Good move, Mr. Moorad. At this rate, we will all forget about the Russ Ortiz idiocy really really soon.
   5. Howie Menckel Posted: May 13, 2008 at 12:58 AM (#2778658)
Of course, Byrnes' XBA via Shandler this year is .291.

That post could yet prove "Bowa-worthy"
   6. NTNgod Posted: May 13, 2008 at 01:26 AM (#2778661)
Many surprises in the 25 Percent Awards

Basestealers are only 16 for 30 off Jason Kendall this season.

I think a dominating beginning by Cliff Lee would have been less shocking than that :P
   7. davoarid Posted: May 13, 2008 at 01:51 AM (#2778670)
In 39 innings, Fausto Carmona has 31 walks to 15 strikeouts. His era is 2.95.
   8. Bhaakon Posted: May 13, 2008 at 02:28 AM (#2778678)
Dude knows how to pitch out of a jam, you just can't put a price tag on that. </sarcasm>
   9. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: May 13, 2008 at 08:56 AM (#2778733)
I would think that Mariano Rivera, he of the infinite ERA+ should at least get a mention for AL Cy Young....
   10. Kyle S at work Posted: May 13, 2008 at 09:09 AM (#2778738)
So after MGL calls Cliff Lee a below-average pitcher, he has two starts of 7 IP and 9 IP with no runs allowed, 13 hits, 2 walks and 12 strikeouts. What are the odds that a below-average pitcher would do that?
   11. MSI Posted: May 13, 2008 at 11:50 AM (#2778875)
He's actually slightly above average in his career. For a starter that's useful.

Carmona is certainly due for a correction...But he only has 1 homerun!
   12. SoSH U at work Posted: May 13, 2008 at 11:59 AM (#2778883)
What are the odds that a below-average pitcher would do that?


Me too. I am wondering if MGL could let us know how many innings Lee has to throw at this kind of quality before the conclusion that something has genuinely changed can be safely reached. Surely, there has to be some number of innings at X level of performance that a slightly below or even average pitcher can't be expected to deliver.
   13. Danny Posted: May 13, 2008 at 12:00 PM (#2778885)
I would think that Mariano Rivera, he of the infinite ERA+ should at least get a mention for AL Cy Young....


He doesn't mention Soria, Ryan, Lidge, or Wagner either.
   14. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: May 13, 2008 at 12:02 PM (#2778887)
Hey, you defend your guys and I'll defend mine....
   15. AROM Posted: May 13, 2008 at 12:29 PM (#2778914)
If you kids can lay off the snark long enough to read MGL's blog, Cliff Lee has inspired him to do some research showing that pitchers who have great starts like Lee do pitch a little better than their updated Marcel projections over the rest of the year.

I don't think MGL is still calling him a below average pitcher.
   16. SoSH U at work Posted: May 13, 2008 at 12:38 PM (#2778923)
If you kids can lay off the snark long enough to read MGL's blog, Cliff Lee has inspired him to do some research showing that pitchers who have great starts like Lee do pitch a little better than their updated Marcel projections over the rest of the year.


I wasn't being snarky. I'm genuinely interested in the answer to the question I asked. I'll check out mgl's blog.
   17. Dizzypaco Posted: May 13, 2008 at 12:50 PM (#2778936)
I wasn't being snarky.

I think you should have been. If there's ever been someone who deserves snark, its MGL.

Seriously, a week or so ago, Rob Neyer comes out with a reasonable piece on why he believes Cliff Lee has changed. MGL absolutely blasts him for this, saying that Cliff Lee is a bad pitcher, that his start is nothing more than a fluke, that there's no reason to believe that Lee has changed, and that MGL's beliefs are based on "science" while Neyer's are based on nothing at all.

And somehow only two starts later (small sample size!) Lee is no longer a below average pitcher and is supposed to pitch better? What happened to the science?
   18. Jimmy P Posted: May 13, 2008 at 01:01 PM (#2778958)
and that MGL's beliefs are based on "science" while Neyer's are based on nothing at all.

This is where I think MGL went overboard. You want to say Cliff Lee is a mirage, fine, there's probably some data to back that up. To sit here and say that Neyer was just writing because his boss' told him to and hadn't ever looked at the data was a little uncalled for, especially in the tone he used.
   19. Jimmy P Posted: May 13, 2008 at 01:05 PM (#2778963)
NL Manager of the Year — Fredi Gonzalez, Marlins

Although, about 1 start a month he sends Scott Olsen out for 120+ pitches. For no appearent reason either, one game was 10-4, the other was 3-0. Olsen said that the 120 pitch start affected his next start, where he got shelled and never topped 90, so maybe Fredi should stop. Olsen's the one guy on that staff that is young with All-Star level talent, burning him out Joe Girardi style may not be the way to go.
   20. SoSH U at work Posted: May 13, 2008 at 01:10 PM (#2778973)
Although, about 1 start a month he sends Scott Olsen out for 120+ pitches. For no appearent reason either,


A probation condition?
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