FOX Sports: Perry: Twins’ surprise run built on shaky foundation

Barren von Mitterwald?...Never!

A pile of runs and a lack of defense — not your typical Twins team.

On a total level, it’s worth noting that, according to runs scored and runs allowed, the Twins’ record should be three games worse than it is. That doesn’t bode particularly well for the future because teams that over-perform relative to their run differentials tend to come back to earth. It’s partly because of the run differential that Baseball Prospectus gives the Twins just a 7.1% chance of making the postseason. For comparison’s sake, the third-place Tigers have a 15.3% chance, more than twice Minnesota’s odds.

On another level, the Twins’ seeminglyly aberrant performance in clutch situations is also worrisome. Consider: Minnesota leads the majors in batting average with runners on base and in batting average with the bases loaded. They also rank second the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position and two outs, and lead the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position by a full 27 points.

It’s the latter fact — that they’re hitting .313 with runners in scoring position — that raises eyebrows, especially considering that the Twins are batting .276 in all situations. Most often when you see such a huge disparity between those two figures, it’s a matter of luck. It’s not likely that the Twins’ extraordinary performance with runners in scoring position is going to continue.