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Monday, May 12, 2008

FOX Sports: Perry: Young backstops will stack up with past greats

(drowsy Madden-speak ahead) BAH!...These catchers today ain’t a dalrymple on the…

It so happens that right now we’re blessed with a number of catchers who meet all those requirements and then some. In fact, it’s worth pondering whether baseball is on the cusp of a new “golden age” of catchers. The 1920s and ‘30s gave us Mickey Cochrane, Bill Dickey, Gabby Hartnett and Ernie Lombardi. The ‘50s gave us Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella. The ‘70s gave us Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, Thurman Munson, and Gene Tenace. The ‘90s gave us Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza.

These days, of course, the names and styles are different, but the current era, by the time it draws to a close, may compare favorably to any other period in baseball history when it comes to excellence at the catcher position.

Brian McCann: The 24-year-old McCann has a career SLG of .496, and this season he’s slugging .540 and on pace for 83 extra-base hits. Offensively, he’s got the most upside of any active catcher. Also, if you look at Similarity Scores, which measure statistical likenesses among hitters, you’ll find that McCann’s most similar hitter through age 23 is none other than Hall of Famer Tony Lazzeri.

Geovany Soto: You saw Soto touted in this space as the Rookie of the Year favorite in the NL. He’s lived up to that and then some. His power is for real, and he’s wasted no time in adapting to the highest level. At this writing, Soto is hitting .349 AVG/.442 OBP/.651 SLG and is on target for 31 homers and 67 doubles. Obviously, he’s not likely to maintain such a pace, but he could still find himself in the NL MVP discussion this season. Soto’s the real thing.

Repoz Posted: May 12, 2008 at 08:22 AM | 114 comment(s)
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   101. Chris Dial Posted: May 12, 2008 at 10:31 PM (#2778573)
This has devolved into a stupid thread. Okay, maybe it started out that way.

I disagree. It *could* have been fine.
I said: Here's what I think MCCann will hit
You said: Here's what I think will hit, you jerk
I said: Sounds like somebody wants to bet
Then some other people began insulting me.

Don't open with a personal attack, and threads won't get so stupid.
   102. Chris Dial Posted: May 12, 2008 at 10:44 PM (#2778589)
Okay, Danny, you are on.
   103. Corn On Ty Cobb Posted: May 12, 2008 at 11:20 PM (#2778613)
I apologize for calling you a clown, Chris. I enjoy your work here and generally think you're an funny, well informed guy, if overly confrontational. The Mets fan answer to Hutch.

I do think you're more than a bit biased here because McCann happens to play for the Braves. I feel like you'd be more optimistic if he were a Met. You're right, if McCann hits .270, his OPS+ is going to be closer to 100 than 115. I do agree with you that he's not going to age well. I'll take him on my team any day, though.
   104. Chris Dial Posted: May 13, 2008 at 08:35 AM (#2778718)
I feel like you'd be more optimistic if he were a Met. You're right, if McCann hits .270, his OPS+ is going to be closer to 100 than 115. I do agree with you that he's not going to age well. I'll take him on my team any day, though.

Don't get me wrong - I think McCann is one of the better hitting catchers playing - he's just not Johnny Bench or Gene Tenace with the bat. I may be downgrading him from 110-115 to 100-105, but that's not very much. I'm not saying "McCann? He blows" He's certainly better than Schneider or Lo Duca. But I also don't think he's a true .330 hitter, which was the argument I had here with some Braves fans in 2006.
   105. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: May 13, 2008 at 04:45 PM (#2779193)
But I also don't think he's a true .330 hitter, which was the argument I had here with some Braves fans in 2006.

I unsuccessfully tried looking for this thread. I remember it going much the same way.
Braves' contingent : Mac is awesome, he is going to be a stud.
Dial : Look at minor league #s. He is a pumpkin
B' c : And you are saying noone improves at age 22-23 and takes the next step to be a great hitter.
Dial : So you are saying Mac is a TTL 330 hitter
B' c : Noone is saying he is a 330 hitter, but he can hit 300 with lot of pop
Dial : So you are saying he is a TTL 330 hitter
B' c : you are retarded
Dial : Noone is a TTL 330 hitter. he is a pumpkin. Look at his minor league record.
   106. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: May 13, 2008 at 04:51 PM (#2779203)
And as for this thread, as far as I can gather, Dial is saying Mac ia an illusion cos he is fat and slow and hacky.
Danny says he only swings at league average % of pitches outside the strike zone.
Dial says by hack, he meant low BB rate. And he is not going to be very good if he swings at so many pitches outside the strike zone. As he is fat and slow!
And then people say , oh he has above average LD rate, K's below league average. And he is 24!
Dial says Look at his minor league stats. he is going to be a 100 OPS+ hitter for his career.
cos he is fat and slow and swings at too many pitches outside the K zone.

Yea, 3rd pro season, 1 disrupted by hand and ankle injury ( he had offseason ankle surgery ).
2+ seasons in the minors. Nope, no chance he improves. Its all downhill from here.
   107. Kyle S at work Posted: May 13, 2008 at 04:55 PM (#2779207)
Chris, I'm happy to give you under 105 and take over 105. As I said last night, I'll even give you under 110 and take over 110. I don't see why I should give you under 105 and have to take over 117, given the way the conversation evolved. You first put a stake in the ground at 100; given that, I figured a 105 over/under is plenty generous. If you really think he's a true talent 100 hitter, you should be getting 60/40 or better with a 110 over under (too lazy to do the binomial now).
   108. Danny Posted: May 13, 2008 at 04:56 PM (#2779209)
Yup, looks just about the same:

Kyle S Posted: July 18, 2006 at 01:26 PM (#2103487)
I'm sorry, I didn't realize i had to defend the proposition that McCann will continue to hit .350. The reason I mentioned him at all was because of the way you brought up his minor league numbers, implying that THEY represent his true talent level. I believe he'll hit around .300/.360/.470 or so for the rest of the year, which is still well above his minor league numbers. Maybe I'm crazy.
   109. Kyle S at work Posted: May 13, 2008 at 05:02 PM (#2779218)
Okay, I'm going to see how my two year old prediction did. I bet it sucked.
   110. Kyle S at work Posted: May 13, 2008 at 05:05 PM (#2779220)
*drumroll*

Brian McCann results - 7/18/2006 - 10/2/2006

.317/.367/.610 - he even hit a home run that day.
   111. Kyle S at work Posted: May 13, 2008 at 05:21 PM (#2779230)
A lot of that old thread was an argument about the relative strength of the Braves' offense. They ended up finishing second in the league in runs scored and finished tied for third in EqA. Did anyone end up taking the bet Chris offered that the Braves wouldn't finish top 3 in that statistic?
   112. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: May 13, 2008 at 05:24 PM (#2779234)
Did anyone end up taking the bet Chris offered that the Braves wouldn't finish top 3 in that statistic?

Oh if I didn't in that thread, it was in another thread. Damn, I had totally forgotten about that.
   113. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: May 13, 2008 at 05:29 PM (#2779239)
Looking at Mac's page on Fangraph ( damn, its awesome ).
He has cut his K rate ( well below 2006 level ), while increasing BB rate ( same as 2006 ) , while maintaining the same BABIP as 2007. He has cut his O-Zone swing % too, while keeping his ISO at 2006 levels.
To me, that looks like a player who is improving, not a fluke.
   114. MM1f Posted: May 14, 2008 at 03:35 AM (#2780096)
Thanks for your input, MM1f.

Well then would you care to explain why McCann playing catcher makes him a bad bet to be good catcher, like you said?
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