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Tuesday, March 11, 2008

FOX Sports: Perry: Handicapping the Rookie of the Year races

or...Holy crap, I forgot Jim Lefebvre was a ROY!

The NL is much more complicated. In a just and meaningful universe, Reds center fielder Jay Bruce would be the heavy favorite. He’s got exceptional skills and a peerless track record, he’s playing a key defensive position, and Cincinnati provides a great hitter’s environment. However, Cincy manager Dusty Baker isn’t inclined to trust young talent, and he’s got other, veteran options in center (to wit, Ryan Freel and Corey Patterson). Worse yet, Bruce is presently sidelined with a strained quad, so he’s falling even further behind.

Similarly, Reds first baseman Joey Votto is competing against a veteran — Scott Hatteberg in this instance — so he may not get the chance he needs to mount a charge for ROY. Some of Baker’s recent comments imply that he cares neither for Votto’s lack of foot speed or patient approach at the plate. Tell us again why you’d hire Baker to manage a young roster?

...Elsewhere, keep a particular eye on Cubs catcher Geovany Soto, who might just be the favorite. You won’t see his name bandied about in most lists of ROY favorites, but he’s got a lot of factors in his favor. One, he’s a darn good hitter (he led all of Triple-A in SLG last season), two, he plays a key defensive position, and three, he’s going to be in the Chicago lineup on a regular basis. Given a full season of playing time in a home park that’s friendly to right-handed power hitters, don’t be surprised if Soto reaches the 25-homer threshold. Doing so, while manning catcher, would make him the top contender for NL ROY.

Repoz Posted: March 11, 2008 at 03:14 PM | 17 comment(s)
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   1. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: March 11, 2008 at 03:29 PM (#2710637)
Aside from Soto (and the Japanese "rookies"), what NL rookie eligibles are virtually guaranteed to get a full season of playing time? Rasmus? Maybin?
   2. Evil Twin Posted: March 11, 2008 at 03:34 PM (#2710641)
Towles is a good bet to get a lot of playing time. Is Parra a rookie?
   3. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 11, 2008 at 03:40 PM (#2710645)
In terms of ROY handicapping, give Buchholz the edge because of his sure-fire spot in the rotation.

I thought Buchholz just got bumped, is that not happening?
   4. AlouGoodbye Posted: March 11, 2008 at 03:45 PM (#2710649)
Sadly Kevin "the gamer" Frandsen is no longer eligible for this award, or he'd be a shoo-in.
   5. Watch Crispix Attacks geek out Posted: March 11, 2008 at 03:51 PM (#2710653)
Aside from Soto (and the Japanese "rookies"), what NL rookie eligibles are virtually guaranteed to get a full season of playing time?

Yes to Towles; BaseballAmerica claims that Ausmus is back this season purely in a reserve/coaching role, and that they contemplated just making him a coach.

Jair Jurrjens, probably.

Nyjer Morgan, possibly.

Franklin Morales, probably.

Keep an eye on who the Rockies choose as their 2B. Barmes and Quintanilla are not rookies...Nix and Ian Stewart are.
   6. Sparkles Peterson Posted: March 11, 2008 at 03:53 PM (#2710656)
Rasmus is looking more likely to at least start the year in Memphis. It's not that he's playing poorly (.217/.379/.565), but that there is a glut of outfielders who are playing well and for whom getting every day playing time is not as key to the organization.
   7. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 11, 2008 at 03:55 PM (#2710660)
Isn't Manny Parra a rookie? He only has 26 big league innings.

If so, and I believe he qualifies, I could easily see Parra getting a spot in the rotation due to injury and/or someone stinking it up.

So say Parra grabs a spot in mid-May, the Brewers defense is sub-par versus awful (which is not a big issue for a strikeout guy like Manny), the team scores a fair amount of runs and Parra gets 25 odd starts? That could be a 15-5 season with an ERA around 3.00.

Sounds like a ROY to me........................
   8. flournoy Posted: March 11, 2008 at 04:03 PM (#2710671)
Jair Jurrjens, probably.


Not much confidence in Mr. Hampton, I see.......
   9. Dingbat Charlie Posted: March 11, 2008 at 04:11 PM (#2710678)
15-5 season with an ERA around 3.00.

I'm rosy on Parra if he's healthy, but that would be stunning.
   10. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 11, 2008 at 04:15 PM (#2710682)
Dingbat:

Here is my reasoning which I mentioned somewhat above:

--Parra is a strikeout guy
--Parra doesn't have the need of defensive support like a Suppan/Capuano
--Parra is a legitimately fine pitcher, when healthy
--Miller Park is a decent pitcher's park if you can keep the ball in the park
--Parra is lefty and good lefties are few and far between

In that scenario with a team that can score a pitcher of quality could ring up an impressive W-L record.

My friends living out in AZ tell me Parra looks OUTSTANDING so far this spring. He has electric stuff.
   11. plink Posted: March 11, 2008 at 04:20 PM (#2710684)
--Parra is a legitimately fine pitcher, when healthy


Well, this is the key, isn't it? I don't think anyone would deny that he can pitch well, he just has to stay healthy, which he hasn't done thus far.
   12. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 11, 2008 at 04:46 PM (#2710719)
plink:

Ah, but his injury last year was a freak event. And if anything the lost time has likely spared his arm extra wear and tear.

I think he's a classic breakout candidate, Yost or no as manager..........
   13. JJ1986 Posted: March 11, 2008 at 04:51 PM (#2710725)
I predict that Jordan Schafer comes up in May, hits .400 for two months and sews up the award, though even in the end Soto has much better numbers.

I like Joba in the AL because he's already famous. That or Ellsbury.
   14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 11, 2008 at 05:14 PM (#2710747)
Hey, Harv, you hearing anything about Villanueva? Is he in the rotation? How's he look?
   15. plink Posted: March 11, 2008 at 06:11 PM (#2710783)
Ah, but his injury last year was a freak event.

Agreed, but didn't he also have injuries during each season from 04-06? (I'm having a hard time finding any info online) Don't get me wrong, I think he's the 3rd best pitcher on the team (and I'm definitely rooting for him), but it seems he's about as likely to pitch a full season as Sheets.
   16. Russlan roots for the the mediocre Mets Posted: March 11, 2008 at 06:21 PM (#2710787)
15 wins in 25 starts is really hard to do. Gallardo only won 9 of 17 starts last season.
   17. Nate Posted: March 11, 2008 at 06:55 PM (#2710801)
Parra has 46 days on the active roster, non-September, so he's not eligible for ROY.
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