This can only end well.

Low probability-of-success base stealers are the new market inefficiency.

From the headline, I assumed he had just signed a long and lucrative contract extension (c'mon, someone had to post that...)

Howie, it says with Mets, not from Mets.

If only the glowing article posted ~1 week ago about Francoeur's arm had been titled "Francoeur gets a license to kill".

[4] The Mets playing Francoeur is like one stealing "with" the other, from Mets fans, that is.

Francoeur says he never learned how to steal bases with the Braves, explaining that it wasn’t part of Atlanta’s offensive philosophy. But it is part of Manuel’s plans.
…
Francoeur has only stolen 15 bases in his five-year career—and he only has 30 major-league attempts. He also never has swiped more than six bags in a season.

Reason #768 why Jerry Manuel is a moron.

Focus on the part of Francouer's game that is the least important, well done Mets. Focusing on stolen bases for a guy with a deficient OBP is a complete waste of effort.

Met players who are threats like Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr.

Little Sarge's career high in steals is 18. (he is a good %age base-stealer) Back when he was a kid, Pagan stole a ton (62 one year) but has 41 total across the majors and minors over the last 4 years.

Now the Mets do have two great base-stealers and, OK, Beltran's legs are hurt and you probably don't want him demonstrating but I don't see how Reyes' thyroid problem keeps him from showing Francoeur what to do. David Wright ain't shabby either.

That said, presumably Manuel is thinking about Francoeur stealing 10-15, not 30. A healthy Mets team could steal a good number of bases (Bay is also a surprisingly good base-stealer) ... much in the same way that a healthy Ken Griffey could have hit 800 HR.

Yup, it's not part of the Braves' organizational philosophy to have slow people concentrate on stealing bases, or spend time teaching basestealing to dumb people whom you're trying to get to recognize the difference between a strike and a pitchout. I guess that's why the Mets have been so successful.

The Mets have generally been a good baserunning team during the Minaya era. They steal a lot of bases at a high percentage. It's one thing they have done relatively well.

I guess that's why the Mets have been so successful.

It's not like the Braves have been that successful either. Both teams have only made the playoffs once in the last 5 years.

I know the Braves had been much more successful before then but I am not sure how relevant that is.

[11]

It's not like the Braves have been that successful either. Both teams have only made the playoffs once in the last 5 years.

They haven't spent the same amount in player salaries over that time.

Of course, if the Mets don't blow their 1 NLCS appearance and two chances to go to the playoffs on the last day of the season, every Met fan feels very differently.

I foresee hilarity.

Francoeur has only stolen 15 bases in his five-year career—and he only has 30 major-league attempts.

in the immortal words of Herb Score: "I'm not good at math, but even I know that's over .500"

I foresee hilarity.

They should just get it over with; rename Citi Field into "Fred Wilpon's Chuckle Patch" and start billing it as the world's largest comedy club.

You Mets fans are going to love Frenchy's versatility. There's almost nothing he can't do poorly.

Francouer, always ready to discover new ways to make outs.

They haven't spent the same amount in player salaries over that time.

This is the Braves fan equivalent of "no fair!!"

Fair or not, you have Francoeur now. We'll call it square.

Break a leg.

[18]

They haven't spent the same amount in player salaries over that time.


This is the Braves fan equivalent of "no fair!!"

Freeballin', you should know I am a Mets fan who watched Beltran's NLCS-ending strikeout and both Game 162 losses sitting at Shea.

From 2005-2009, the Mets outspent the Braves in player salaries by over 30%. Quite frankly, deep pockets was about the only asset Mets' ownership brought to the table; they certainly don't have the management or supervisory acumen of other teams with similar payrolls / markets.

Now, after Madoff and the downturn in the real estate market, the payroll has been pared back and ownership's willingness to spend is far less than it had been. (Was another mediocre free agent starter and the dumping of Castillo's contract really too much to ask for?)

This all comes despite the team moving into a brand-new stadium heavily subsidized by you and me in taxes and increased ticket, parking and other prices.

(Was another mediocre free agent starter and the dumping of Castillo's contract really too much to ask for?)

I have to say that the near unanimous hatred of Castillo around here by Met BTFers have made me question my attitude about him. I never thought eating his contract and signing a free agent 2B was a better idea than just keeping him and signing a pitcher instead but it seems everyone else believes that.

Is Hudson - Castillo > Garland + Castillo?

He doesn't have much range but he still has good hands and gets on base.

I have to say that the near unanimous hatred of Castillo around here by Met BTFers have made me question my attitude about him.

This was in Friday's Star-Ledger

Mets' Luis Castillo trying to increase range at second base
...
By any advanced statistical measure, Castillo's range at second base has been among the worst in baseball in recent years. He ranked last among major-league second basemen in runs saved over the last three years, with -30, 11 fewer than the next closest player (Dan Uggla, -19). He was tied for the lowest plus/minus rating at his position over the same period (-28).

Castillo might not know the numbers, but he knows his range has been an issue and has been working closely with new Mets third base/infield coach Chip Hale this spring.

"Sometimes I look at the video of the last two years, sometimes I'm slow there," Castillo said Friday. "I don't react quick. But I've been working on it."

bobm,
Don't let Freeboy bother you. It's his self-appointed task to troll Mets threads and harass anyone who dares to criticize the team. I've had the good luck to make his ignore list by challenging him to present any facts whatsover in support of his opinions so it looks like you're "it".

I have to say that the near unanimous hatred of Castillo around here by Met BTFers have made me question my attitude about him. I never thought eating his contract and signing a free agent 2B was a better idea than just keeping him and signing a pitcher instead but it seems everyone else believes that.

You're not alone. Castillo should have been replaced, sure, but only after the team picked up two starters, an outfielder, a catcher, and a setup man. He was hardly the worst player on the team in 2009 and while he's a strong collapse candidate his OBP did go a long way towards making up for his defense.

Reason #768 why Jerry Manuel is a moron.

Reason #769 is

But Manuel believes it’s essential for the Mets to be baserunning threats since they play their home games at Citi Field, which isn’t hitter-friendly…

While this is sort of true, Citi was actually homer friendly last year (1.057), the thing that Francouer does fairly well, and supressed more than anything else... walks, meaning of all the Mets Francouer is probably the least likely to be negatively affected by Citi. Pushing the Mets to steal is idiotic. Francouer is never going to turn into a break even point base stealer, and pushing Reyes and Beltran early on is ludicrous, given the severity, persistence, and nature of their injuries. Encouraging your effective basestealers to steal when it's productive to do so makes sense, of course. Encouraging your team in general to steal regardless of whether given players are any good at it or can do so productively, is foolish. A park factor of 0.95 for all of one season is no call to get your slow guys running.

As for Francouer in particular stealing more bases, that's simply hilarious. He's no longer fast, doesn't get on first much, and hasn't been a break even base stealer since he was 21 and in the minors, where it's easier to swipe a base.

Could any of the Manuel fans on this site please tell us what it is he's actually good at?

Jeff Francouer is a force that gives us meaning.

Jeff Francouer is a concept by which we measure our pain.

I don't believe in Ryan Zimmerman

Freeballin', you should know I am a Mets fan who watched Beltran's NLCS-ending strikeout and both Game 162 losses sitting at Shea

Are you sure?

Focus on the part of Francouer's game that is the least important, well done Mets. Focusing on stolen bases for a guy with a deficient OBP is a complete waste of effort.

If you want Francoeur to double his total bases, you're probably more likely to get him to steal every time he gets on base than double his OBP.

Since stolen bases don't contribute to total bases, the only way that's possible is if his total bases are zero. I could buy that.

I'm pretty sure that's not how Total bases work.

[30], [31]

Don't let the "Tim Raines for HOF" boosters hear you.

Do I find it hilarious that the plan seems to be to give back some percentage of the small number of times Jeff Francouer actually gets on base, via caught stealings?

Yes. Yes I do.

Reason #768 why Jerry Manuel is a moron.

Yeah, OMG, how stoopid to ask a major league baseball player to work on developing a skill during spring training. What mor0n.

Yup, it's not part of the Braves' organizational philosophy to have slow people concentrate on stealing bases

Oh come on Mac. That is nonsense. When the Braves drafted Francouer he was a 4-star defensive back prospect who ran a 4.5 40.
He has bulked up and lost some wheels, though he isn't "slow", but it is completely stupid to suggest he was slow while in the Braves minor league system.

[34]

Reason #768 why Jerry Manuel is a moron.
Yeah, OMG, how stoopid to ask a major league baseball player to work on developing a skill during spring training. What mor0n.

The moronic part is which skill Jerry Manuel selected. How about working on plate discipline or pitch recognition? Those would be better uses of Francoeur's time than base-stealing IMO.

It should go without saying. Why waste valuable spring training time having a regular focus on a skill he certainly no longer possesses, that can only hurt the team, and even increases the possibility that Francouer gets inju...

Ok. Maybe we're being a little hasty condemning this out of hand.

The moronic part is which skill Jerry Manuel selected. How about working on plate discipline or pitch recognition? Those would be better uses of Francoeur's time than base-stealing IMO.

You're looking at this from the faulty perspective that time spent working on baserunning must be time that will take away from working on plate discipline. It simply isn't that way. If that were the case, you wouldn't let ever let Francouer leave the batters box every year in spring training. There is only so much you can work at one skill at once.

I can not believe the idea of asking to an athletic outfielder to work on base-stealing skills during spring training is controversial.
Newsflash, time spent working on base-running does not detract from time spent on fielding or hitting.

Why waste valuable spring training time having a regular focus on a skill he certainly no longer possesses,

By that logic no player would ever work at a skill they are poor at, which is obviously a bunk idea.

You're conflating basestealing and baserunning--they're not at all the same thing, as I'm sure you know. Also, Manuel is talking about Francouer stealing more bases, not going 8 for 10 instead of 5 for 10. Should Francouer work at becoming a better basestealer wrt the few bags he should be stealing? Sure--no one's arguing against that. Should Francouer work at becoming a better baserunner? Of course he should. No one is suggesting otherwise. It's the ridiculous idea that Francouer should be trying to steal significantly more often, since he simply no longer has the speed to do that, that makes no sense and is being held in contempt.

It's the ridiculous idea that Francouer should be try to steal significantly more often, since he simply doesn't have the skills to do that, that makes no sense and is being held in contempt.

Again, you're putting forth that if a player isn't good at something he should never try to improve that weakness or develop new skills. Which is stupid.

It isn't like this is asking Frank Thomas, or someone who just CAN'T RUN to work on base-stealing jumps. Francouer can run, it isn't crazy think he could figure out how to read a pitcher and take a quick first step

Francouer can run

Why do you think this? His speed score, as per Fangraphs, is well below average, 3.5.

Why do you think this? His speed score, as per Fangraphs, is well below average, 3.5.


Because he can? He is no longer "fast" but he can still move well.
Using stats to evaluate something as easily observable as speed is where the stats uber alles thing gets silly. Speed scores are great for looking at players of yore, to get an idea for their style of play but you can't seriously tell me that it should take the place of simple observation or timing for a current player
Seriously, just watch. him. run. It isn't that hard. It isn't as quick as he was at 22, but his wheels still looks solid-average.
Part of the reason, I would assume, Manuel would have singled out Francouer (as opposed to, say, Carlos Delgado) for SB improvement would be because Manuel can see that he can run. Every coach or scout has a stop watch. Every player runs a 60 in spring training. I'm sure Manuel knows what Francouer's wheels are like.
Using Speed Score instead of a simple observation/timing of speed is as ridiculous as using K-rate instead of MPH reading to talk about a pitcher's fastball.

Furthermore most of the reason his speed score is so low for someone with athleticism is because, in part, he doesn't know how to steal a base. Which is what you want him to improve...

Because he can? He is no longer "fast" but he can still move well.

I use stats b/c I haven't watched him play.

Maybe he's a lousy baserunner? Bernie Williams was really fast, but was a shitty baserunner.

Frenchy hasn't been fast since he bulked up. He did steal at a decent-but-nothing-special 69% clip in the minors, but that's back when he could run.

I'm not sure how this will end well for the Mets.

I use stats b/c I haven't watched him play.

He has been in the majors since... when again?
Seriously?
Why bother questioning someone else's evaluation of a guy you haven't even seen him play in the five years he has played MLB?

Frenchy hasn't been fast since he bulked up. He did steal at a decent-but-nothing-special 69% clip in the minors, but that's back when he could run.

Again, he is no longer "fast" but he can run solidly. If Carlos Lee can steal 15-20 bases in his 20s, so can Francouer.

And I'm not even saying he will, I'm just stunned the a manager asking a player to improve a skill that would complement his abilities is being meant with such ignorant contempt.
This is SPRING. TRAINING. This is when you do these things.

Using stats to evaluate something as easily observable as speed is where the stats uber alles thing gets silly.

I agree with this completely. That said, Jeffy Froglegs' footspeed has declined a great deal in the last few years, and trying to get him to steal now strikes me as folly.

Jeff Francouer is a the force that gives us meaning.

Fixed.

I just believe in me.
Frenchy and me.
And that's reality.

Again, you're putting forth that if a player isn't good at something he should never try to improve that weakness or develop new skills. Which is stupid.

Are you being deliberately obtuse, or is reading comprehension just not numbered among your doubtless many gifts? I wrote:

Should Francouer work at becoming a better basestealer wrt the few bags he should be stealing? Sure--no one's arguing against that. Should Francouer work at becoming a better baserunner? Of course he should. No one is suggesting otherwise.

Seriously, was it really that hard for you to understand?

Using stats to evaluate something as easily observable as speed is where the stats uber alles thing gets silly.

It's not either/or. Failing to use stats when they can usefully supplement our observations makes no sense. Failing to use our observations when those can usefully supplement statistics also makes no sense.

You might just as well have written "Using stats to evaluate something as easily observable as hitting is where the stats uber alles thing gets silly." If you're going to dismiss something as useful as speed scores just because they disagree with your observations this probably isn't the site for you.

If you think Franceour should be stealing more bases, what do you think the best case scenario is--can he steal 15 of 20? 20 of 30?

Anyone else read about Familia adding 5 MPH to his stuff this spring? Apparently, he sat at 96-98 in his last start.
Suddenly, I'm bullish on the long term outlook for this team - as long as Jerry and Omar are gone soon enough.

Someone give the man a license to walk.

Suddenly? Have you ever seen a prospect you didn't like?

I don't believe in steals.

If you're going to dismiss something as useful as speed scores just because they disagree with your observations this probably isn't the site for you.

Gosh almighty. You phrase this like you are carrying the flag of the Enlightenment. Speed scores is a "fun" stat. If you want to know how fast a guy runs, you watch how fast he runs. Done. You don't use a convoluted statistic, culled from a variety of other statistics weighted according to whim, that assigns an entirely arbitrary number to what may approximate the overall effect of running speed and technique for the great variety of tasks on a baseball field.

And the whole point of the thing is that French has not been taking advantage of his God-given (even if diminished) speed and that his speed scores are thus misleading about his natural running talent.

This conversation is highly annoying and just drips with all of the worst tendencies of statheadism. The over-literal interpretations in #39 are insane ... the article talks about French taking basestealing lessons, his admission that he doesn't know how to steal bases, and yet Omar'sBlackCloud complains that there isn't a word about improving his stolen base percentage! As if nobody had thought of the issue, and Francoeur needed lessons on how to just run towards second base for no good reason.

The season cannot start soon enough.

This conversation is highly annoying and just drips with all of the worst tendencies of statheadism. The over-literal interpretations in #39 are insane ...

According to TFA, "But it is part of Manuel’s plans. So this spring he’s told Francoeur he wants him to run more,... "

Let's try it again:

You're conflating basestealing and baserunning--they're not at all the same thing, as I'm sure you know. Also, Manuel is talking about Francouer stealing more bases, not going 8 for 10 instead of 5 for 10. Should Francouer work at becoming a better basestealer wrt the few bags he should be stealing? Sure--no one's arguing against that. Should Francouer work at becoming a better baserunner? Of course he should. No one is suggesting otherwise. It's the ridiculous idea that Francouer should be trying to steal significantly more often, since he simply no longer has the speed to do that, that makes no sense and is being held in contempt.

This is "over-literal?" Asking for even the most elementary clarification is "Insane?" You're kidding, right? Okay, I confess. my suggesting that Francouer improve at what he can rather than wasting time on something at which he'll never be useful to the ballclub is madness! What on earth could I possibly have been thinking?!?!

and yet Omar'sBlackCloud complains that there isn't a word about improving his stolen base percentage!

Exactly, because the emphasis, according to Manuel, is on stealing more bases, which is an utterly imbecilic exercise for Francouer to undertake. The break even rate for stolen bases at the current level of 4.61 runs scored per game is 81%. Does anyone with his head anywhere daylight really think that ####### Jeff Francoeur is going to start stealing bases at a clip of 82% or better? It's exactly this utterly wrongheaded horseshit emphasis and trivial nonsense that edges the club ever further from contention. Let's play some little ball because of big bad Citi Field! It's the equivalent of signing a replacement level guy like Little Sarge. It does nothing to move the club towards contention, despite Manuel's thinking that it does--and he really does. He really believes that sending Francouer thirty times is going to improve the ballclub. Let's take a poll on that one.

Joe Sheehan has it right:

While you can use stealing bases to assist in run scoring, you can't run your way into a good offense. The core elements of offense are getting on base and advancing runners on hits. Teams--more often managers--that announce plans to create more runs by stealing bases are usually saying, "we can't hit, and we hope that if we move around a lot, no one will notice." It won't work.... Stealing a lot of bases doesn't have anything to do with having a good offense.

Manuel's not saying the club can't hit, but he is saying the Mets need to tailor their offense to Citi Field. Citi Field has a one year park factor of 0.95. We really don't know yet what effect it has on offense. Manuel's response to that is to steal more bases, something that, historically, when you can't steal a high percentage of your attempts, never works and costs you runs and games.

At any rate, look at the video. It's a typical Francouer AB when he puts the ball in play. His first step is unimpressive, he doesn't accelerate particularly well, he's got that 'running in two feet of water' stride, and he's just not fast.

And no one claimed speed scores were anything other than a fun stat, but they do say something about a player, and dismissing them out of hand while offering no evidence other than claiming your eyes tell you he's fast enough, and because they don't help your conclusion, is plainly foolish.

Anyone else read about Familia adding 5 MPH to his stuff this spring? Apparently, he sat at 96-98 in his last start.
Suddenly, I'm bullish on the long term outlook for this team - as long as Jerry and Omar are gone soon enough.

I didn't read that particular article but I've been loving what Scouting the Sally League has had to say about his progress. They've got writeups on him from April, June, and December 2009 and he's looking beter and better. He has to be a Top Ten prospect at this point. Where would you rank him?