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Friday, March 14, 2008

Friar Forecast: Chris Long interview, part 2

Beware the Killer Robots!...with Chris Long, Padres’ Senior Quantitative Analyst.

FF: Khalil Greene has really struggled hitting at home in his career. Do you think there’s something in the way he puts the ball in play that causes that or is it just randomness (or something else)?

Chris Long: He has a 270 BABIP at home, and a 306 BABIP away. PETCO’s BABIP last year was 280, the rest of the NL averaged 306; in 2006 these were 280 and 303. So he’s a little unlucky there, but not much. He strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk at a high rate, but hits for power. That’s really the worst combination for PETCO. Pitchers throw more strikes, because the outcome of a BIP is likely to be less damaging. So while Khalil has been a little unlucky, it’s really the interaction of his hitting approach, the ballpark, and how pitchers pitch in PETCO.

FF: What do you think is the future of sabermetrics/statistical analysis in baseball? What are you looking forward to working on over the next 3 or 4 years?

Chris Long: More sophistication, better understanding, greater integration, wider acceptance. Then the robots kill all humans, but hopefully they’ll still play baseball. There are some absolutely amazing possibilities in the near future, certainly analytically, but also in other areas. That’s completely void of informational content, but the best I can do.

Repoz Posted: March 14, 2008 at 12:36 AM | 7 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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1. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: March 14, 2008 at 01:54 AM (#2712474)

Then the robots kill all humans, but hopefully they’ll still play baseball.

Oh, they will.

2. Walt Davis Posted: March 14, 2008 at 06:19 AM (#2712551)

He has a 270 BABIP at home, and a 306 BABIP away. PETCO’s BABIP last year was 280, the rest of the NL averaged 306; in 2006 these were 280 and 303. So he’s a little unlucky there, but not much. He strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk at a high rate, but hits for power. That’s really the worst combination for PETCO. Pitchers throw more strikes, because the outcome of a BIP is likely to be less damaging. So while Khalil has been a little unlucky, it’s really the interaction of his hitting approach, the ballpark, and how pitchers pitch in PETCO.

Or how about this ... even over 1800 BABIP, assuming the "true" PETCO BABIP is 280 and that the binomial distribution is at least a reasonable approximation, 1 stinking standard deviation is 10 points of BA. There's really no reason to even wonder whether the type of hitter Greene is impacts his BABIP in Petco since we have no reason to think he's any worse than expected.

Now, if you want to show me some players who are 3-4 SDs (at least 2) below average at home and average on the road (or vice versa), then maybe we'll take a look. Or if you want to show me that the aggregate of players who K a lot, don't walk and hit for power are killed by Petco, then maybe we'll take a look. But when you come in apparently not even realizing that you're talking about a difference that would amount to about 18 hits over 10 seasons* ... and that difference isn't even close to statistically significant ... well either expect me not to listen or to post condescending things on the internet.

* Greene has averaged about 180 BIP per season at home, 4 seasons.

3. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 14, 2008 at 07:15 AM (#2712559)

I would be very interested in hearing how a front office that has a track record of being very smart (Towers, Alderson, DePo, Long seems to be a bright guy) explains teh Jim Edmonds move. It is one thing to trade for him, seeing as how it didn't cost much talent, but another to depend on him to play CF. Was there another move that wasn't made? Do they really have some kind of data that will tell us that Edmonds will be healthy and effective defensively?

4. MB Posted: March 14, 2008 at 07:44 AM (#2712562)

Walt, I did the interview with Chris. Is your response to my question or his answer (guess it could be to both)? Either way (and thanks for it, by the way), I am far from a saber expert and was just throwing something out there that interested me a bit. In his career, Greene's hit .228/.288/.370 at home and .280/.335/.515 on the road, which is why I was interested. I believe, and I could have screwed this up, he has a .557 slgBIP (including homers) on the road and that's .377 at home. I am not sure if any of this is significant, and that's why I threw it out there. Anyway, I agree that it'd need a closer look, but there's probably a limit to what Chris wanted to give away in this little interview.

5. jwb Posted: March 14, 2008 at 11:20 AM (#2712585)

Re: Winnie Cooperstown's clip
You still don't get it, do you? He'll hit a bloop to right. That's what he does. That's all he does! You can't stop him. He'll wade through you, reach out, and slap a freaking bloop to right!

6. Bad Doctor Posted: March 14, 2008 at 01:03 PM (#2712630)

Why does PETCO, which has such a huge outfield, feature a consistently low BABIP? Or is it just that Coors, Pac Bell (whatever it is now), and BOB (whatever it is now) make their road BABIP artificially high? (No wait, it's being compared to BABIP for all the rest of the NL, not just Padres' road games.)

7. MB Posted: March 14, 2008 at 01:54 PM (#2712676)

According to MGL, Petco's outfield is actually not that big -- just slightly above average. I believe the reason for the lower BABiP is the heavy air which makes fly balls hang up in the air longer ... but I could be off there.

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Friday, March 14, 2008

Friar Forecast: Chris Long interview, part 2

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