Friar Forecast: Gettinger: What is Wrong with Brian Giles?

Damn Phlebotinum-fueled double carcass switch...right under our very noses!

So, if Giles is not chasing more pitches, and is not having a tougher time making contact with the ball, what has been his problem?  Simply, Giles is not making solid contact with the ball.  Only 12.5% of his balls in plays have been line drives.  For his career, Giles’ LD% has consistently (his LD% shows very little variation between years) hovered around 20%.  Instead, Giles is hitting a lot more grounders.  Hitting more grounders, and less line drives is significant because line drives are the type of ball in play that are most likely to go for a hits and extra bases.

While the drop in line drive percentage partially explains the lower batting average and slugging percentage, it does not tell the whole story.  Some of Giles’ struggles can be attributed to poor luck.  This season, Giles has a BABIP of 0.165.  His line drive rate suggests he should have BABIP closer to 0.245.* This implies Giles should have a batting average of 0.214 rather than 0.151. 

...Unfortunately, the Giles situation is much different from the Peavy situation.  In Peavy’s case, he was essentially the same pitcher he has always been, but with a few starts of terrible luck.  Giles’ struggles can not be entirely attributed to bad luck.  Making solid contact with the ball is a skill, and Giles has not done a good job of it this season.  Even with some regression towards his career LD%, we may still be disappointed with the results.  Giles is 38 years old.  He is not this bad.  But a precipitous drop in performance from the previous year would not be entirely unusual.  Giles will turn things around.  Just not all the way (or even close to all the way) around.