Where's the love for Scott Hairston?

Chris Young below Kouzmanoff and Greene?

Chris Young below Kouzmanoff and Greene?

None of them have any chance, so it's kinda hard to quibble. Young is 29 years old and has just 37 wins, but I guess there's always Vance and Niekro...

Giles will very likely have a better career than anyone below him on the list, but he also has virtually no shot at the HOF while Gonzalez still does.

When there are only three worth discussing, one should only list three.

There's 4 worth discussing, I guess. Peavy could get in, albeit there's a lot more he has to produce. At least he's on track.

Edmonds should be discussed, albeit as a likely negative.

Hoffman will make it eventually, since other closers are making it.

Maddux will make it, and should be first ballot. Of course, listing him on a Padres' list is ridiculously silly. He makes it as a Brave. Listing players on the end of their careers as "current Padres future HoFers" is one of the reasons that the Padres are struggling to stay out of last place.

There's 4 worth discussing, I guess. Peavy could get in, albeit there's a lot more he has to produce. At least he's on track.

Three and a half, maybe. I don't really see the point in discussing a guy who, if he were hit by a bus tomorrow, wouldn't have enough seasons to qualify for the HOF. Peavy does have a Hall of Fame-quality first 40% of a career, though.

I don't think Edmonds has much chance of being selected by the writers, but I think he's deserving. His prime from 1995-2005 (6100 PA, 141 OPS+, supposedly good D) was excellent, and he's probably been the second best CF to Griffey over the last 20+ years.

His career's a bit short and he has no black ink, which likely kills any chance he'd have.

It's a bit silly, but this is the kind of thing that's great for killing time at work.

I don't see why people here would have Edmonds in and Giles out. There just isn't much daylight between the two.

Edmonds: 7402 PA, 132 OPS+
Giles: 7065 PA, 139 OPS+

There's a defensive gap, sure, but a) Edmonds is kind of an overrated defender and b) Giles spent 300+ games in CF, and was a good corner glove the rest of the time. Since Edmonds looks pretty done right now, and Giles is still going strong, the disparity seems even odder.

The ten 2008 Texas Rangers most likely to make the HOF:

1) Michael Young, if that 3,000-hit thing happens
2) Kevin Millwood, if he puts in another fifteen or twenty 16-12 seasons
3) Josh Hamilton for sheer dreamy awesomeoness
4) Salty, if he develops into Carlton Fisk
5) Ian Kinsler, because Marcus Giles is his sixth-most similar through age 25, and Giles has a brother who is at least as good as Chick Hafey
6) Milton Bradley, is he not famous?
7) Hank Blalock, where is your save streak now Mr "All-Star" Eric Gagne?
8) Vicente Padilla, the career Hit Batters record should be good for something
9) Marlon Byrd, that arm-flappy thing they do in the stands when he bats is interesting
10) Brandon Boggs, career OPS+ 176 as of this morning

The 2008 White Sox most likely to make the HOF:
1. Frank Thomas, if he decides to retire and signs a one-day contract like football players do sometimes
2. Jim Thome
3. Tie

I don't really see the point in discussing a guy who, if he were hit by a bus tomorrow, wouldn't have enough seasons to qualify for the HOF.

I would say it is more worthwhile discussing guys who don't yet have 10 seasons under their belts than it is players who do, particularly given this list. The fates of Maddux, Hoffman, Giles and Edmonds are pretty obvious, whereas guys like Peavy, and even Gonzalez, and even even Kouz, and even even even Heath Bell, still have an opportunity to climb up there.

There is no way on God's Green Earth that either Giles or Edmonds is going into the Hall. And I have to confess that sentences like this:

Maddux will make it, and should be first ballot.

enrage me in an irrational way, because it seems to leave open the possibility of a different outcome. It's not you, it's me.

It's a stupid game, but it is kind of a fun one, to force it to run to 10.

My Red Sox list:

1. Manny Ramirez - In.
2. Curt Schilling - Probably in.
3. David Ortiz - Probably not in, but has a chance despite subpar career numbers due to stuff.
4. Josh Beckett - Doubtful, but has the postseason numbers to give him some wiggle room.
5. Jonathon Papelbon - It could happen.
6. Clay Buchholz - Generic "he hasn't had enough things go wrong with his career to rule him out yet" pick.
7. Tim Wakefield - He'll have to pitch well past Obama's second term, but stranger things have happened.
8. Daisuke Matsuzaka - Might get a bit of a boost by voters giving more credit to NPB numbers over time.
9. Jacoby Ellsbury - Odds are significantly improved if the events of Demolition Man come to pass.
10. Dustin Pedroia - .300 hitter!

Bibi - Mike Timlin should on your list.

Hmm. Mets:

1. Pedro - In.
2. David Wright - In.
3. Billy Wagner - Probably in eventually
4. Johan Santana - In if he keeps it up, but there's time left for collapse
5. Carlos Beltran - This is going to be an odd career to measure.
6. Moises Alou - Probably not in, but stranger things have happened.
7. Jose Reyes - Started really young and will rack up all kinds of career numbers if he plays long enough. Too early to bet on him, though.
8. Carlos Delgado - No real chance
9. El Duque - With credit for playing in Cuba
10. Mike Pelfrey - Only young guy on the team

How is David Wright "In" whereas Johan is "In if he keeps it up, but there's time left for collapse"?

Wright's a brilliant young player, I love watching him, but let's first see if he has a career before we crown him with laurels.

David Wright's career to this point is no better than, and perhaps not as good as Nomar Garciaparra's was to the same point in time, just to name one example. That's not a knock against Wright, just acknowledgement that players' careers sometimes derail. I don't know that Wagner is probably in - I'd bet against it. Alou won't go in.

Most teams have only one or two guys that have played 10 or more years, and are at least somewhat likely. Edmonds is going to need a good ending to his career - he'll have to pile up some impressive career numbers to make it, IMO. If he goes downhill soon, probably not.

Bibi - Mike Timlin should on your list.

Why, just to provide the name of a Red Sox player with absolutely no chance?

Atlanta:

1. Chipper -- in.
2. Tom Glavine -- in.
3. John Smoltz -- probably in, but may take a few years.
4. Tim Hudson -- needs 5-6 more strong seasons, or additional mediocre ones.
5. Mark Teixeira -- probably not enough power for a first baseman in this era, but possible.
6. Brian McCann -- 24-year-old catcher with 2+ seasons in the majors already.
7. Jair Jurrjens -- 22-year-old starting pitcher already in the majors.
8. Jeff Francoeur -- started young, but won't get in if he can't improve on his performance to date.

I don't see anyone else on the current roster with above a 0% chance.

3. John Smoltz -- probably in, but may take a few years.

Nahh, if he never throws another pitch in the majors, he's in: 210 wins, 154 saves and 3000+ Ks, together with 15-4, 2.65 ERA in 207 post-season IP.

Phillies:

1. Chase Utley -- dominates second basemen offensively. But will have to do so for another decade.
2. Jimmy Rollins -- also needs about another decade. Helped by durability, despite finally getting injured this season. And by the MVP.
3. Pat Burrell -- career OPS+ of 120 is not amazing for a LF, but he's durable too. Needs oh, let's see, about another decade.
4. Jamie Moyer -- if steroids bewilder the voters so much that they go back to voting in people based on being interesting and unique and regular-guy-ish, like sixty years ago.
5. Brett Myers -- he's been durable and started at age 21. However, after six seasons he only has 61 wins. But if he gets traded and becomes part of some sort of dynasty, then he could get a lot of wins and become a True Yankee. Who knows.
6. Cole Hamels -- injury concerns, of course.
7. Kyle Kendrick -- has 12 wins at age 23. Sure, why not.
8. Chris Coste -- see Jamie Moyer.
9. Ryan Howard -- can he hit 50 home runs a year with 200 strikeouts for ten more seasons? Or even two more seasons? Or one? What a bizarre player.
10. Tom Gordon -- like Dennis Eckersley, without the alcoholism or the stats!

All three of my top players have "sustained a Hall of Fame pace" longer than David Wright and therefore have more of a chance of getting in. Since the Hall of Fame is a career accomplishment anyway, a "Hall of Fame pace" simply means worthy of All-Star consideration every year, as long as you can keep it up for 18 years and be identified with only one or two teams instead of five or six. But it's still a slim chance. I mean, things happen.

Today is when I realized that all the Phillies' best players are around their peak instead of being past it. Win now dammit! Trade an entire minor-league franchise for Aaron Harang and someone else!

Colorado:

1. Todd Helton: Still has shot at 3,000 hits, 400 homers; Hall-worthy peak.
2. Matt Holliday: Two straight MVP-type seasons, only needs about five more.
3. Troy Tulowitzki: Great rookie season, only 23.
4. Garrett Atkins: Eight more seasons at his 2006 level should do it.
5. Chris Iannetta: The new Jorge Posada.
6. Jeff Francis: Needs about 10 more 17-win seasons.
7. Franklin Morales: Just 22 and throws 99 mph.
8. Ubaldo Jiminez: Just 24 and throws 94 mph.
9. Aaron Cook: Has a chance to be the next John Tudor, which of course wouldn't be enough for the HoF.
10. Brad Hawpe: Needs to roid up.

Burrell has virtually no chance of making the Hall of Fame, unless he gets substantially better than he is now, and plays at that level for 10 years, all of which has almost no chance of happening at his age. Utley just needs to keep going. Rollins will have a tough time even if he keeps going for a long time, but its not impossible.

Nahh, if he never throws another pitch in the majors, he's in: 210 wins, 154 saves and 3000+ Ks, together with 15-4, 2.65 ERA in 207 post-season IP.

Yeah, I phrased that poorly -- what I meant was not that it may take him a couple more years of pitching to get in, but that I don't see him being a first-ballot guy.

I don't see anyone else on the current roster with above a 0% chance.

9.) Kelly Johnson (0.5%) and
10.) Brent Lillibridge (0.05%)

Hey, why not? There are down-list picks just as suspect on every other list.

Mike Hampton is in.


EDIT: Actually, maybe 9 is Yunel Escobar. I'd forgotten about him.

Okay, Burrell has less of a HOF chance than David Wright does. But still, my opinion of whether someone is a "likely HOFer" is influenced very highly by how long they've been in the majors. Is there anyone under 30 that I would say is LIKELY to have a good enough career to go into the Hall of Fame, even presuming they don't get injured? Pujols, that's it. People go from "Great player" to "good player" all the time.

10. Mike Pelfrey - Only young guy on the team

Once again Anderson Hernandez fails to get his due.

All three of my top players have "sustained a Hall of Fame pace" longer than David Wright and therefore have more of a chance of getting in.

Utley has the second base thing going for him and his monster start to 2008, but otherwise him and Wright are really really close and what do you know...David Wright's most similar batter is Utley. Wright is Utley's second most similar batter.

How is David Wright "In" whereas Johan is "In if he keeps it up, but there's time left for collapse"?

I don't actually think Wright is in yet; that was a joke. I do think that I'd probably put him 2nd on the list still and ahead of Johan, although that's certainly premature.

6. Moises Alou - Probably not in, but stranger things have happened.

8. Carlos Delgado - No real chance

Delgado is 5 years younger, has a 10 point advantage in OPS+, has 103 more homers than Alou, and has 112 more RBI than Alou. The only thing Alou has on Delgado is batting average. Neither player is known for being a good defensive player. Delgado always puts up good counting stats. Even last year, he hit 24 homers and drove in 87. Delgado will probably end his career with 500+ homers and 1500+ RBI.

Actually, looking over Alou's numbers make me cautiously optimistic about Delgado. Alou had poor years in 2002 and 2003 as a Cub and rebounded. Obviously, that's rare, and Alou is something of freak, but Delgado's a rare player with a great deal of talent as well. And despite his poor numbers this year, Delgado looks better at the plate this year when compared to last in my opinion.

I'll try:

1- Carlos Zambrano (35%, on pace but has to keep doing it for another 8 years or so)
2- Alfonso Soriano (25%, surprisingly good HoF Monitor (75.5) already, but defensive rep doesn't help)
3- Derrek Lee (15%, needs to have an unusually long plateau/peak)
4- Aramis Ramirez (12%, same as Lee, but a bit less popular)
5- Kerry Wood (4.1%, could theoretically have an inverse-Smoltz kind of a run, and earn goodwill for coming back from what Dusty wrought)
6- Felix Pie (2.2%, needs to exceed dramatically expectations, but he's still young enough to have some upside)
7- Geovany Soto (1.6%, ditto)
8- Carlos Marmol (0.7%, needs to become a dominant closer for a lot of years)
9- Sean Marshall (0.3%, hey, it's theoretically possible)
10- Yosh Kawano (0.01%, Clubhouse Managers wing!)

Oh, and everyone gets multiplied by 1.5 if the Cubs win the World Series while they're on the team.

9. Ryan Howard -- can he hit 50 home runs a year with 200 strikeouts for ten more seasons? Or even two more seasons? Or one? What a bizarre player.

Statistically speaking, yes what a bizarre player

Anyway:
Ryan Howard 2006-08
K/uiBB:
2.5
2.8
3.0

K/PA:
0.26
0.31
0.33

Howard is just off the charts, Dunn for instance (2001-08):
k/uiBB:
2.1
1.5
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.9
1.8
1.0

K/PA:
0.26
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.25
0.28
0.26
0.20

Already one omission- let's slot Lou Pinella in at #2, and give him an 31% chance, with a special manager-only tripling if the Cubs win under his stewardship.

All three of my top players have "sustained a Hall of Fame pace" longer than David Wright and therefore have more of a chance of getting in.

Rollins and Burrell have been around longer, but Utley didn't really have a "HOF" year until 2005, which was Wright's first full season as well. Utley and Wright were separated by 4 PA in 04. So the extent of Utley "sustaining a HOF pace" longer than Wright comes down to 152 PA of an 87 OPS+ in 2003.

Utley is 3 years older than Wright, and has all of 110 more PA. If I had to pick one of them to make the HOF (and its obviously way too early for that) I would pick Wright without a doubt.

Toronto Blue Jays:

1. Roy Halladay (35%) - just grinding away with complete games. In NY/BOS/CHI/LA, he'd be a star already.
2. Scott Rolen (24%) - if he stays healthy and racks up some more gold gloves...
3. Alex Rios (15%) - he's a little late to the party, but a good power surge could help his chances
4. Vernon Wells (12%) - he needs to get it back on track to become an elite CF
5. Aaron Hill (10%) - he's quietly becoming one of the better 2B in the AL (but slumping right now)
6. A.J. Burnett (8%) - if he's healthy and consistent, he might make a dent, but he'll need a couple of 20-win seasons to get back on the radar
7. B.J. Ryan (8%) - he needs a lot of healthy 40 save seasons to have a shot
8. Shawn Marcum (5%) - he's getting better
9. Jesse Litsch (4%) - 11 wins by age 23?
10. Dustin McGowan (3%) - needs some work

Why, just to provide the name of a Red Sox player with absolutely no chance?

Mike Timlin has had a remarkably underrated career and has the 4th best HOF case on the redsox.

Here's my shot at the Twins, using only players who have already appeared with the major league club in 2008:

1. Joe Mauer - Started young and started well, premier defensive position, first overall draft pick, local hero, Baby Jesus, etc., etc. I think he's the only Twin with a non-negligible chance of making the HOF, but his durability issues and inability to develop power are starting to get worrisome.

2. Delmon Young - The only real positive is that he played regularly at 21. He has to start hitting soon.

3. Carlos Gomez - The only real positives are that he is getting a chance to play regularly at 22 and he has a unique and legitimately HOF-level skill, his speed. He needs huge amounts of development across the board to even stay in the majors, let alone excel, but at least there are some skills to build on.

4. Francisco Liriano - 2006: 22 years old, 12-3, 2.16 ERA, 144/32 K/BB, 121 IP. It's going to be a long road back. I really hope he gets there.

5. Justin Morneau - The 2006 MVP award is nice, but 27-year old 1B's with 110 HRs and 118 OPS+'s aren't exactly rare. Fred McGriff Lite?

6. Joe Nathan - Do people realize how awesome his now 4 1/2 year peak has been? Unfortunately, he was 29 at the start of his run and only has two All-Star selections to show for it. Who knows what the HOF will end up doing with closers, but I doubt Nathan ever sees the inside of the Hall without buying a ticket.

7. Boof Bonser - Nearly interchangable with...

8. Scott Baker - In fact, they score an amazing 986 on B-Ref's similarity scores. Both are 26, with roughly .500 records and slightly worse than average ERA+'s. I'll take Boof because of a higher K rate and better health thus far.

9. Jason Kubel - His minor league numbers suggested the possibility of MVP-level seasons in his future. Unfortunately, he's 26, has already had a career-altering injury, and is just now establishing himself as an ML regular.

10. Kevin Slowey - Already 24 and only has 12 major league starts to his credit and he doesn't really strike anyone out.

All three of my top players have "sustained a Hall of Fame pace" longer than David Wright

1. Chase Utley -- dominates second basemen offensively. But will have to do so for another decade.
2. Jimmy Rollins -- also needs about another decade. Helped by durability, despite finally getting injured this season. And by the MVP.
3. Pat Burrell

Let's see, from the bottom:
Burrell: Top 3 by OPS+: 146, 128, 127, bad defensive LF, now 31, top 10 BBREF comps through age 30:
# Danny Tartabull (935)
# Jeff Burroughs (929)
# Jesse Barfield (927)
# Willie Horton (926)
# Bob Allison (923)
# Dean Palmer (920)
# Roger Maris (915)
# Gil Hodges (913)
# Jack Clark (908)
# Vic Wertz (908

Not A Hall of Famer in the bunch
not on a Hall of Fame pace- period.

Rollins:
Top 3: 118, 102, 101.
(Zoilo's top 3: 115, 104, 94)
3 of Rollins' top 10 comps ARE HOFers, Sandberg, Doerr, Travis Jackson
The problem with them, and all Rollins;' comps save Ed Renteria, is that they are all better than him. Can a 100 OPS+ SS make the hall? Sure- but he's going to need a lot of longevity and for a lot of writers to drink the Rollins' gold glove kool aid.

Utley: 145, 132, 125, and as someone noted above, does not really have a counting stat advantage over Wright despite being four (4) years older.

I find it interesting that virtually every list above has vastly overestimated the chances of one or more of the players making the HOF. The only exceptions are the Braves, and possibly the Red Sox, although Schilling is borderline.

I find it interesting that virtually every list above has vastly overestimated the chances of one or more of the players making the HOF.

So far we are seeing a lot of fanboy infected lists, you'll get that from time to time, people cannot objectively view their favorite players, or the players they would like to see do well

Mike Timlin has had a remarkably underrated career and has the 4th best HOF case on the redsox.

I'll agree with the first part. As for Part II, if you're talking about qualified candidates, well you're limiting the field considerably. And even with that, I'd put Varitek and Wakefield's cases over Timlin's. Then again, I'd rather get kicked in the head than see another short reliever elected to the HOF, so I'm not the most unbiased source.

But more important - whether Mike Timlin has the fourth or fifth or sixth best HOF resume on the Red Sox right now is immaterial. His career is almost over, and he has absolutely no chance of enshrinement. Thus, Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon et al, regardless how far off their HOF worthiness, are still higher on the "most likely" list.

Which Rockies did I overrate?

1) A-rod - 100%
2) Jeter - 100%
3) Mo - 100%
4) Mussina - 40%, if he can rebound this year and learn to pitch with what he has and hang out for a year or two more, or wins a ring, he's in.
5) Posada - 25%, the shoulder injury hurts him, but if he can do what he's been doing (150 games, 120 OPS+) a couple more times, he's a borderline case, and the rings might put him over.
6) Abreu - 8%, excels in numbers the writers don't like, will definitely need to stick around for a while and rack up runs and RBIs. .300 hitter, but isn't likely to be one when he finishes. Needs some sort of surprise MVP finish or big postseason too.
7) Pettitte - 5%, I don't know, Schilling became a HOFer after age 36. It seems pretty unlikely, but he's got a lot of wins and rings already.
8) Cano - 5%, if he can get over this awful slump and bounce back to be a .300 hitter with good defense at the keystone for the next ten years or so, he'll win the gold gloves and get the All-Star and postseason appearances that will put him over the top.
9) Matsui - 5%, depends entirely on Japanese credit, he's never been great here, but he seems to have a decent body type for an old player and the DH may help him hit for a long time.
10) Melky - 3%, chose him over some old guys who will clearly never get in (Giambi, Damon (no shot at 3,000 hits IMO) and some pitchers (you know, because they're pitchers), only because he started so young that he will rack up the hit totals, he will be in CF for at least a couple more years and he's shown some very real progress (2 HRs away from career high) this year.

Wang, Joba, Damon, Giambi (depending on how steroids will be viewed, he's got a huge peak), and any of the dozen power righty arms the Yanks have might have a shot in a million.

Which Rockies did I overrate?

Matt Holliday and Garret Atkins, particularly Holliday. He's had one MVP type year, not two, and it didn't tower over the rest of the league. If he has a long career, he has a shot, but he's already 28 which will be a problem. I'd guess he'll need at least 10 more excellent years, not just five. I can name a bunch of players who were near MVP for about five years, and fell far short of the Hall.

Atkins isn't playing at a HOF level - he either needs to have a very long career, or pick up his game quite a bit. Both are possible, neither is likely.

Boy, I thought that Utley would have at least, say, 20 more career hits than Wright, since he's FOUR YEARS OLDER. Damn you Ed Wade!

As for Burrell, all I said was that he would have to play another good decade with the same rate stats. That would put him at 41 years old. It's not impossible for him to get to the HOF. For a lot of players it's going to be impossible no matter how long they play.

I'd do the Pirates, but there isn't any point; no one on the current roster is going in.

WRT the HOF Monitor: I recently read a comment by Bill James (in the Gold Mine, I think) that the HOF Monitor is no longer an accurate tool for projecting potential HOFers because the writers are no longer using the standards on which it was based. I think that's an accurate assessment.

-- MWE

I'd do the Pirates, but there isn't any point; no one on the current roster is going in.

I give Ian Snell a 3% shot, around the same as Melky Cabrera. The rest, you're right.

WRT the HOF Monitor: I recently read a comment by Bill James (in the Gold Mine, I think) that the HOF Monitor is no longer an accurate tool for projecting potential HOFers because the writers are no longer using the standards on which it was based. I think that's an accurate assessment.

That sounds about right.

Given the differing experiences of Alan Trammell and Ozzie Smith, I think we can peg the percentage of voters likely to vote for Barry Larkin at...oh, somewhere between 2% and 90%. Who has any clue what these people are thinking?

Tigers:

Hit-by-a-bus:

1) Ivan Rodriguez: shell of his former self, but he'll still go in first ballot (barring a ridiculous crowd): 111 OPS+, closing in on 300 HR, and all those Gold Gloves.

Near-lock:

2) Gary Sheffield: he'll wait a couple of years because nobody likes him, and he is short on black ink, but he has a 143 OPS+ over ~10K PA, 1500+ R, 1500+ RBI, and 482 HR and counting. If he doesn't reach 500 HR, slim possibility that he gets added to the HoM-not-HoF list (already a lock for the HoM).

Good chance:

3) Miguel Cabrera [40%]: Thanks to reaching the majors a year earlier than Wright despite being a few months younger, Cabrera arguably has the best HoF odds of anyone in the 25-and-under set (though a string of Wright GG may erase that lead).

Longshot:

4) Justin Verlander [8%]: 2006-07 are certainly HoF-caliber seasons, but like all young pitchers, he needs to add a whole bunch more before he's even in the discussion. Hopefully Dr. Morris is wrong about his shoulder.

Extreme longshots:

5) Magglio Ordonez [2%]: career numbers hindered by a late start (by HoF standards) and missing much of 2004-05; needs 2-3 more 2007-type seasons to establish a peak and then to hang around long enough to rack up some career numbers. Would get the biggest boost from a Tigers' World Series or two during his tenure, as that could add some Jim Rice / Joe Carter pixie dust to his resume.

6) Edgar Renteria [2%]: Needs to put up a few more seasons like 2007 to even enter the discussion, but he has some pretty good career totals thanks to playing full time since age 20.

7) Jeremy Bonderman [1%]: only a few months older than Verlander, but 22 wins ahead thanks to starting at age 20. No HoF-caliber seasons to date, however - best ERA+ is 112, career is 93 - but still some chance that he'll put it together and collect a sufficient peak to go with impressive career numbers.

8) Carlos Guillen [<1%]: Probably started too late, and the move to 1B won't help, but if he continues to hit like he has from 2004-07 for the next eight years, he could make the cut.

9) Placido Polanco [<1%]: See Guillen, only moreso.

No other player has a non-infinitesimal chance; I won't guess as to whether Leyland and his sub-.500 career record has a chance of making the cut, though of course a couple more pennants or WS titles would help his cause significantly.

Baltimore:

1. Nick Markakis: He'd have to step it up a notch to get there, but Jim Rice does show up in his comp list.
2. Adam Jones: Way, way too early to project; the talent is there, but will he develop?
3. everyone else: no shot

-- MWE

One thing we've learned from this thread is that the general presumption is that if someone isn't a major league regular by age 25 he has virtually no chance at the Hall of Fame, and that for "Hall of Fame level players" the chance goes exponentially up depending on early their career started.

If Chase Utley hadn't been blocked by the fact that Placido Polanco moving to third base was artificially blocked by David Bell, he'd have a much better chance.

If it depends that much on counting stats, that's one reason why the whole exercise is kind of boring.

Cardinals:
In

1. 1b Albert Pujols- Duhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
*1a. If we count manager's liklihood of making the hall, then La Russa goes here.

with a few more good years:

2. Chris Carpenter- Pujols and a Grand Canyon-like falloff from there.
3. Jason Isringhausen- Sad when a 28-year-old is
the most likely to make it.
4. Troy Glaus- Maybe if he hits 500 hrs.

Too young, but with a shot

5. Adam Wainwright- Ya know, this list would've looked a lot better last year.
6. Yadier Molina- Maybe if he keeps up the excellent defense until he's 40.
7. Rick Ankiel- Maybe if he hits 400 HRs through age 45.
8. Colby Rasmus- Yeah. A 20-year-old prospect breaks through on the list.

List-fillers

9. Kyle Lohse- because I need ten names.
10. Rico Washington- Ditto.

Has anybody done the A's yet?

If not:

1. Frank Thomas
2. Carlos Gonzales
3. Greg Smith
4. Kurt Suzuki
5. Whoever the team drafts in the first round this year.
6. Brett Anderson
7. Huston Street
8. Trevor Cahill
9. Daric Barton
10. Mark Ellis (As an executive when he leads the expansion Portland Gutterpunks to 4 championships in the span of a 12 year stint as their gm. Hell, why not?)

And yet...third best record in the AL! Those wacky A's!

And yes, Edmonds is in.

HoF voters are amazing superficial; they'll go "ooh, 375 home runs from a centerfielder" and "ooh, eight shiny gold gloves".

Not necessarily first ballot, but second at best and third at worst.

No other player has a non-infinitesimal chance; I won't guess as to whether Leyland and his sub-.500 career record has a chance of making the cut, though of course a couple more pennants or WS titles would help his cause significantly.

If Polanco has a non-infinitesmal chance, than surely Granderson has a non-zero chance of building a HOF worthy career.

If it depends that much on counting stats, that's one reason why the whole exercise is kind of boring.

Problem is, if someone says, well, Wang could have just turned into Kevin Brown and he's about to put up Brown's peak with good run support in NY, so he has a 30% chance of going to the HOF, then they sound like a fanboy. It's hard to predict and defend projections for monster peak players. And there haven't been a lot in recent history either, the two best that I can recall are Padres and were knocked out the way. I think Utley could be one of those guys, other than Pujols, he's been the best player in the league since 05 and he's old enough that he's probably going to be a peak candidate. Tex, Hamilton, and Helton are all potential guys like that too, but I think that the high offense has caused the writers to give less credit to a really good 5-8 year period like they used to with guys like Kiner and Koufax.

One thing we've learned from this thread is that the general presumption is that if someone isn't a major league regular by age 25 he has no chance at the Hall of Fame, and that for "Hall of Fame level players" the chance goes exponentially up depending on early their career started.


Would you have thought differently before this?

You sort of expect players to peak sometime in the late 20s and to start serious decline in the mid 30s or so. Players that aren't regulars until 25 don't have a very large window.

Also, players that start earlier were generally good enough to distinguish themselves despite being further removed from their peak.

If it depends that much on counting stats, that's one reason why the whole exercise is kind of boring.


Your bare minimum is ten seasons, so there's going to be a pretty substantial floor for counting stats, wouldn't you think?

Re: 43, while you are probably right about Posada's ACTUAL chances of making the hall--hell, look how long it took Gary Carter, who looks like a conensus top 5 catcher over at the current HOM voting--on the merits he should be higher. Even with mediocre defense and subpar baserunning, he is already easily one of the top 15 catchers ever in career value; look at his peak and he's higher. Granted I was not alive when he was, but I have trouble understanding how Thurman Munson's HOF case is loudly trumpeted by Yankee fans while the far more deserving Posada is almost an afterthought (well, ok, Posada's lack of eligibility might be one factor :) )

Damon is 34 and has 2135 hits. So about 144 for 6 seasons or 170 for 5 seasons. He will definitely be a candidate to hang on if he is close.

Damn you Ed Wade!

To be fair to Wade, Utley was a late bloomer, as late as age 23 he hit just .263/.329/.461 in AAA after hitting .257/.312/.422 in the FSl at age 22.
He took a great leap forward in his age 24 season in AAA: .323/.381/.517 (In the IL- terrific numbers for a 2B), hit poorly in Philly that year though: .239/.322/.373, so he started 2004 in the minors...
Wasn't all that great in 2004 either

I don't see Ed Wade as having cost Utley any significant time, maybe he could have OPS'd 100 or so as a regular in 2003/04, but pre 2003 he would almost certainly have hit at a replacement level or lower.

I think we can peg the percentage of voters likely to vote for Barry Larkin at...oh, somewhere between 2% and 90%.

I think Larkin will do very well in HOF voting, much better than Trammell, although he is probably on the bubble.

Larkin was perceived as the best SS in his league for a period of years, Trammell was not. Larkin played in nine All-Star games, starting five; Trammell played in four, with no starts. Larkin has an MVP award, Trammell does not - although Trammell does have better overall performance in MVP voting. Larkin won the Silver Slugger award nine times, Trammell three - although Trammell has four GG, Larkin 3. Both have one WS ring. Trammell was the MVP of his WS; Larkin played well in his, but played second fiddle to two dominating outings by Jose Rijo and amazing performances by Billy Hatcher and Chris Sabo. Overall, Larkin has more positives, IMO, and more importantly, more positives of the type that get the voters' attention.

-- MWE

but I have trouble understanding how Thurman Munson's HOF case is loudly trumpeted by Yankee fans while the far more deserving Posada is almost an afterthought (well, ok, Posada's lack of eligibility might be one factor :) )

Hey, I agree with you. Any time his name comes up in the HOF debate I stamp my feet loudly about him being borderline-in right now.

Damon is 34 and has 2135 hits. So about 144 for 6 seasons or 170 for 5 seasons. He will definitely be a candidate to hang on if he is close.

I don't know where he's going to go after this contract. He's a good defensive LFer without a history of power or a good walk rate and a #### arm. I think he'll struggle to get the PAs, even with his strong secondary numbers this year. I doubt he's going to get a big contract and might not get a starting job, depending on how he does in the next 1 year and five months. Regular playing time until he's 40 sounds like a stretch for Damon.

"I'd do the Pirates, but there isn't any point; no one on the current roster is going in.
"

Yeah, that's about right. It's not flat-out impossible that Snell, Cutch, or even Capps might make it, but we're talking a very low probability in all three cases.

Some random notes:

And yes, Edmonds is in.

HoF voters are amazing superficial; they'll go "ooh, 375 home runs from a centerfielder" and "ooh, eight shiny gold gloves".

Much like Dale Murphy, except without the MVP awards. And Murphy played in a time when 300+ home runs seems a lot more impressive than it does now. If Murphy didn't make it, Edmonds doesn't have a chance without piling up some very impressive career stats.

If Damon gets 3000 hits, he'll be interesting, in that virtually no one will think he deserves it, but he got 3000 hits anyway.

Cris Carpenter has pretty much no chance of making the Hall of Fame, unless he starts win 20 games a year every year for several years, which isn't going to happen.

As for Burrell, all I said was that he would have to play another good decade with the same rate stats. That would put him at 41 years old. It's not impossible for him to get to the HOF. For a lot of players it's going to be impossible no matter how long they play.

Burrell would probably need to play another two decades with the same rate stats, which would put him at 51 years old. Some other possibilities: Burrell wins multiple home run crowns; he wins multiple MVPs. They resurrect the veteran's committee and fill it completely with ex-Phillies. Other than that, Burrell's chances are pretty close to that of his teammate Pedro Feliz.

6. Moises Alou - Probably not in, but stranger things have happened.
7. Jose Reyes - Started really young and will rack up all kinds of career numbers if he plays long enough. Too early to bet on him, though.

Why do you have Alou ahead of Reyes? Nobody on earth thinks that Alou has any chance in hell. Realistically any player under 30 has a better chance than Alou - when you are talking about a 25 year old two-time All-Star, it's a joke.

Damon doesn't feel like a HOFer. It will be interesting if someone like him gets 3000 hits.

Much like Dale Murphy, except without the MVP awards. And Murphy played in a time when 300+ home runs seems a lot more impressive than it does now. If Murphy didn't make it, Edmonds doesn't have a chance without piling up some very impressive career stats.

But, on the other hand, Murphy was unlucky enough to play before ESPN's heyday where every diving catch he made was replayed a dozen times a day, artifically increasing his defensive ability to that of some sort of fleet-footed god that ran around centerfield.

Still got the Dodgers, Angels, Astros, Mariners, Marlins, Giants, Diamondbacks, Royals, Devil Rays, Brewers, Indians, Pirates, Nationals, and Reds to go.

Would also like to see a free-agent team, like Kenny Lofton and the like.

Why do you have Alou ahead of Reyes? Nobody on earth thinks that Alou has any chance in hell. Realistically any player under 30 has a better chance than Alou - when you are talking about a 25 year old two-time All-Star, it's a joke.

I didn't check any career stats and severely overrated Alou because I've heard his name thrown around for the HoF at times. I ###### up that one. He should certainly be behind Reyes and Delgado.

And Renteria's in too.

You guys are vastly overestimating the intelligence of the majority of the HoF voters. For hitters, they'll look at pretty much:

Hits
Batting average
Home Runs
RBI
SB
MVPs
Gold Gloves

Nothing else matters all that much unless the player holds a career record in it.

Craig, you're missing the most important thing of all - was the guy considered a great player or not? Kind of like the Keltner test. All star games and MVP's certainly start to get you there, but most of us could pick out who meets this criteria and who doesn't. You either need to have very impressive career stats (3000 hits, at least 500 homers, maybe more), or you need to be considered one of the best five or ten players in the game for several years. Edmonds currently fails on both criteria, which is why I don't think he'll make it without a strong kick to the end of his career.

I know the Cubs have already been done, but so what:

1) Carlos Zambrano. He's the only one I can really see doing it.
2) Carlos Marmol. Oh, to see what the future holds. I doubt it's Cooperstown, but I doubt it for 2-10.
3) Lou Piniella. They win a pennant, he's got a really good case with Cincy '90 & the 116 Mariners. They win the Series & he's a lock.
4) Len Kasper. Actually, he might have a better chance than anyone here.
5) Aramis Rameriz
6) Derrek Lee
7) Alfonso Soriano. 5-7 are guys who really don't strike me as HoF-material, but very good players.
8) Fukudome.
9) Soto
10) Wood.

Setting aside the fact that Alou is not a Hall of Famer, if he were, what cap would he wear on his plaque? I can't put together a convincing argument for any of his teams. (This is perhaps the first clue that he has no business in the Hall of Fame to begin with, but never mind that.)

The Dodgers are kind of interesting:

1. Jeff Kent - I think he's in, but a lot of people will disagree. (Most of them citing probable steroid use, I think.)
2. Andruw Jones - Obviously his case was a lot stronger two years ago. If he holds off collapse for a few years and notches up some counting totals, he still has a shot.
3. Russell Martin - He's one to watch, like Brian McCann. Catchers have weird aging patterns, so who knows where he'll go. He's off to a good start.
4. Matt Kemp - I don't think the Dodgers will block his playing time anymore. Like Martin, a good start.
5. Nomar Garciaparra - He still has nice overall numbers, but he looks very toasty. Not enough career value.
6. Brad Penny - Hard to believe that Penny is only 30. He needs to pitch strongly until he's 40 to have any chance.
7. Andre Ethier - I guess... why not?
8. James Loney - Ditto.
9. Juan Pierre - Yeah, Juan Pierre. He'll probably retire with a ~.300 average, a lot of steals, and a good hit total.
10. Andy LaRoche/Blake DeWitt - Sure...


It gets pretty hard to order the down-list guys, since it's hard to distinguish between two infinitesimal chances.

Craig, you're missing the most important thing of all - was the guy considered a great player or not? Kind of like the Keltner test. All star games and MVP's certainly start to get you there, but most of us could pick out who meets this criteria and who doesn't. You either need to have very impressive career stats (3000 hits, at least 500 homers, maybe more), or you need to be considered one of the best five or ten players in the game for several years. Edmonds currently fails on both criteria, which is why I don't think he'll make it without a strong kick to the end of his career.

That's the problem; it seems that, yes, the "is he one of the best at his position at the time" enters their mind, but if there's something overwhelming in a couple categories (in Edmonds' case, the ~370 homers from a center fielder and eight GGs) that the voters take that as proof he's one of the best in the game, without running the "best at his position" argument.

For the free agent list, besides the two big elephants in the room and Kenny Lofton, who is out there? Matt Morris?

The Dodgers are kind of interesting:

You could use the Dodgers' manager to bump one of the people at the bottom off the list.

Devil Rays:

In if he keeps up his current pace with a normal career trajectory:
1. Carl Crawford

Maybe in, but doubtful:
2. Troy Percival

Hall-Of-Fame talent:
3. Evan Longoria
4. Scott Kazmir
5. BJ Upton (he's just 23? wow)

6. 19-way-tie

To be fair to Wade, Utley was a late bloomer, as late as age 23 he hit just .263/.329/.461 in AAA after hitting .257/.312/.422 in the FSl at age 22.
He took a great leap forward in his age 24 season in AAA: .323/.381/.517 (In the IL- terrific numbers for a 2B), hit poorly in Philly that year though: .239/.322/.373, so he started 2004 in the minors...
Wasn't all that great in 2004 either

In fairness to Utley, his age 23 season was actually a big step forward: incremental improvements in batting average & OBP and a bigger jump in slugging after a double jump, all while being asked to learn a new position, and after moving from a hitter's park to a pitcher's park. That's a pretty good season.

He might not have been ready to be a star in the majors, but he was looking like a solid prospect. I would have started him in AAA again in 2003 (as the Phillies did), but not let him rot there all year. Of course, I also wouldn't have signed David Bell to a four-year contract, but that's another story...

Florida Marlins:

In if he gets hit by a bus while saving a box of puppies:
1. Luis Gonzalez

Hall Of Fame talent:
2. Hanley Ramirez

Geez. I see why nobody wanted them. (I'm leaving the ones with sizeable fanbases here, like the Angels, D-Backs, and Brewers, alone, obviously.)

For the free agent list, besides the two big elephants in the room and Kenny Lofton, who is out there? Matt Morris?

From the Cot's free agent list, there are also Sosa and Piazza. Julio Franco and David Wells will get votes too.

In if he keeps up his current pace with a normal career trajectory:
1. Carl Crawford

Carl Crawford has a chance if he gets 3000 hits. He has no chance otherwise.

My take on the Astros:

1-lance berkman- 33% - After looking at stats, better than I originally thought
2-roy oswalt- 30% - Would need to maintain established pace to age 40 without injury
3-miguel tejada- 10% - Those two 'lost' years make a huge difference
4-hunter pence- 5% - Move from CF to RF hurts his chances unless he moves back
5-carlos lee- 3% - His body type doesn't age well, plus production to date is a little less than reputation
6-jr towles- 1% - All young everyday position players have a non-zero chance until they prove otherwise
7-jose valverde - 0.5% - Would need something like 8 straight seasons like last year
8-brandon backe - 0.25% - Pitchers can return from injury and be late bloomers, still, a longshot
9-darin erstad - 0.1% - I heard he had a lot of hits one year
10-brad ausmus - 0.01% - Pretty high on the all time games caught list

Hall-Of-Fame talent:
3. Evan Longoria
4. Scott Kazmir

BJ Upton is 23 and already has one good season under his belt and a world of talent, he ought to be on this list.

Free Agents, in order of likelihood:

In:
1. Piazza

In (eventually)
2. Clemens

In (more eventually, due to the fact we're more likely to forgive steroid abusers and cheating husbands more than we are just steroid abusers)
3. Bonds
4. Sosa

Maybe in, but one last season would really help his chances as he's so close to so many round numbers
5. Lofton

Maybe in, just to pad his resume

6. Wells

Not enough stats
7. Jeff Conine
8. Marcus Giles
9. Sandy Alomar Jr.

Too young, needs to play more to pad his stats
10. Franco

BJ Upton is 23 and already has one good season under his belt and a world of talent, he ought to be on this list

Jeez; I would have pegged him at like 26 or so, he's been around so long. He's on now.

Edmonds has maybe a 10% chance of making the HOF, and that relies on him not being completely washed up. he was a great player for a good while, don't get me wrong, but for those of us outside of St. Louis who have a little perspective, he just doesn't have a "Hall of Famer" rep or profile. Weird career shape - you might call it Bondsian (with all the baggage that entails).

(To make the above paragraph perfectly clear: I think Edmonds would be a fine [though not a no-brainer] HOF selection. I have no evidence of and no reason to suspect that he used PEDs. I just don't think he'll be elected by the BBWAA.)

Matt Holliday and Garret Atkins, particularly Holliday. He's had one MVP type year, not two, and it didn't tower over the rest of the league. If he has a long career, he has a shot, but he's already 28 which will be a problem. I'd guess he'll need at least 10 more excellent years, not just five. I can name a bunch of players who were near MVP for about five years, and fell far short of the Hall.

I said he'd need five more seasons like the last two, not five total. Seven seasons in the top 15 of MVP voting basically makes him Jim Rice - not necessarily a Hall of Famer, but in the discussion.

In the Gold Mine, James gave him a 35 percent chance, which seems high to me. I'd give him more like 15-20 percent.

Still got the Dodgers, Angels, Astros, Mariners, Marlins, Giants, Diamondbacks, Royals, Devil Rays, Brewers, Indians, Pirates, Nationals, and Reds to go.

I did the Pirates, dude.

1. Ian Snell - 3% chance
2. Other young starting pitchers - 1% chance (tie) - they could always make the leap
everybody else - 0% chance

Giants:

1. Tim Lincecum -- Unique pitching style, could either keep him health or keep him injured. everyone loves him. Started career young.
2. Omar Vizquel -- I could imagine the writers going REALLY REALLY REALLY ANTI-STEROID and deciding to hate all home-run hitters for a few years. Omar Vizquel is one of the biggest star hitters of the 90's if you only include those with no power at all.
3. Matt Cain -- started career young, you never know. Not exactly racking up the wins, but hopefully by 2025 that will be less significant.
4. Jonathan Sanchez -- see Matt Cain
5. Aaron Rowand -- What if last year was for real? This year he's been just as good as he was last year.
6. Barry Zito -- It's not IMPOSSIBLE that he turns out to be worth his contract, is it? But even if he is...he would have to go back to his 2001-2003 form in order to do so.
7. Brian Wilson -- needs about 400 more saves.
8. John Bowker -- not yet old enough to be ruled out.
9. Emmanuel Burriss -- I have never heard of this guy but he appears to be only 23.
10. Dave Roberts -- just imagine that the Red Sox bandwagon continues to expand at its present rate. If these trends continue, by 2030 every single member of the Veterans Committee will either represent the interests of the Red Sox or be subject to merciless lobbying by Red Sox fans, except for the few remaining Yankee stragglers. How could they leave out the guy responsible for The Steal?

The Phils tried Utley at 3B because they didn't think he was a very good 2B. He was a lousier 3B and they moved him back to 2B and his play has steadily improved to very, very good. He's a perfect ball player as he does everything very well other than stealing bases, at which he is merely very good.
Circumstances played against him along with the Phillies fear of dumping the useful-to-toast-in-60-seconds David Bell halfway through his contract. I tend to think that Utley lost about 1/2 season by Phillies foot dragging.

Too young, needs to play more to pad his stats
10. Franco

Maybe he could catch on with one of those PCL teams.

"I did the Pirates, dude."

As did I.

It's really silly to even start talking about a guy's HOF candidacy until he's at least out of his reserve years (ie, 6+ years of MLB service).

With that in mind, Vizquel is the only current *veteran* Giant who has a halfway decent chance of making it into the HOF. And even at that, he's in the Concepcion-class of Very Good shortstops who played for a long time, not a truly historically great player.

Rowand is already 30 and has only two All Star calibur seasons under his belt (2004 and 2007)--and neither of those seasons are HOF-quality peak years. It seems very unlikely that he will be able to accumulate enough career value unless he maintains his 2007 performance well into his late 30s--not impossible, but highly unlikely.

Likewise, Zito had an excellent stretch in 2001-03, but it's not a HOF-worthy peak. If he's going to make it into the HOF, he would have to build his case on career value. He'll have to improve on his 2004-06 level of performance and pitch until he's 40 to accumulate that type of value. It was a longshot before he became a Giant, and after the past 1.25 years, it seems virtually impossible.

Lincecum and Cain are interesting to speculate, but it's not even worth discussing until they prove that they can stay healthy and effective for more than a few seasons.

I tend to think that Utley lost about 1/2 season by Phillies foot dragging.

At most.

His situation is not like Edgar Martinez, who hit .329/.434/.473 in AAA, so was sent back another year and told to try again, and then hit .363/.467/.517 and was sent down again so he could hit .345/.457/.522...

Then there's the guy who hit .316/.399/.514 in AAA at age 23, got 124 ab in 89 mlb games at age 24. was sent back to AAA and hit .317/.430/.605, got 15 ABs in 12 MLB games, was sent back to AAA and hit .331/.436/.617 was given another "shot" in the MLB and hit .258/.405/.468 in 62 AB (34 games)...

I find it interesting that virtually every list above has vastly overestimated the chances of one or more of the players making the HOF. The only exceptions are the Braves, and possibly the Red Sox, although Schilling is borderline.

You'd bet against Schilling making the HOF? At even money?

My experience is colored by going to a whole lot of Red Barons games in 2003. Utley was great for the whole season and the local press kept talking about how it was a surprise that he left spring training still in AAA, so I kept thinking he should have been up with the Phillies the whole 2003 season.

Now that I look at it, in 2002 his AAA stats were almost as good as they were in 2003 -- except for 50 points of batting average.

On the other hand, as I stated earlier, the other Red Baron who seemed to be outclassing the rest of the International League was Travis Chapman.

Then there's the guy who hit .316/.399/.514 in AAA at age 23, got 124 ab in 89 mlb games at age 24. was sent back to AAA and hit .317/.430/.605, got 15 ABs in 12 MLB games, was sent back to AAA and hit .331/.436/.617 was given another "shot" in the MLB and hit .258/.405/.468 in 62 AB (34 games)...

So are you just going to leave us hanging, or what?

2. Andruw Jones - Obviously his case was a lot stronger two years ago. If he holds off collapse for a few years and notches up some counting totals, he still has a shot.

Since turning 30, Jones has hit: .213/.306/.390 in 772 PAs.
Basically, he's already collapsed, the question is whether he has a second wind in him or not.

Quick BBREF PI nonesense
all OFs, 1961-2008, ages 29-31, 300+ PAs, 20+ HR, OPS+ between 80 and 95.
8 players (Andruw 5th by OPS+)
1: Mondesi, OPS+ 93 at age 31, rebounded to hit 113, collapsed again and was done by age 34.
2: Rob Deer, OPS+ 92 at age 30, bounced back to 144 at age 31 (110 games), collapsed again at age 32, tried comeback at 35
3: Hidalgo (gag)
4: Jacque Jones: dropped to 89 at age 29, bounced back to 98 then 108 before dropping again.
5: Andruw
6: Jerry Martin: 88 OPS+ at age 31, followed by 85 and then 96, last year as regular at age 33.
7: Joe Carter: hit .232/.290/.391, "good" for an 85 OPS+ at age 29, followed by 4 good years from ages 31-34, was a regular for three years after that despite being pretty bad- a very good model for Andruw Jones if you neutralize stats- if Carter could bounce back from .232/.290/.391 at age 30 to post consecutive OPS+ marks of 124, 119, 112 and 113, then why can't Andruw come back from
his age 30 line of .222/.311/.413? Well Carter RAKED in April of his age 31 year, Andruw so far has not.
8: Tony Armas, 85 at age 29, bounced back to hit 121 and 114 at ages 30 & 31.

None of these guys had much value after their "collapse" seasons, except Joe Carter.
However, 5 of the 7 did show some bounce back even if only for a year or two, the only exceptions were Martin (who was never really any good to begin with) and Hidalgo*.
None had as much defensive value as Jones, none came up as early as Jones and none, except Carter ever accumulated career stats remotely comparable to what Jones already has.

* There are obviously multiple Richard Hidalgos, and they take turns impersonating "Richard Hidalgo Baseball Player". One of the dopplegangers can actually hit, the others obviously cannot.

Has Sosa ever been really connected to steroids to the extent Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, etc? I don't think he has.

So are you just going to leave us hanging, or what?

OK another hint: He has over 350 professional HRs
His first year in the Japanese Central League he hit .325/.469/.677, that wasn't a fluke (like Tuffy Rhodes who one year hit .327/.421/.662 in Japan's Pacfic League)- this guy cleared 1.000 OPS 5 straight years, hit .290/.409/.561 in the 6th, then when back to the International League and hit .327/.452/.635 in 74 games- career minor league and Japanese line of .312/.429/.578 in 6600+ PAs

Odds are significantly improved if the events of Demolition Man come to pass.

In the future, all Red Sox are HoFers!

Roberto Petagine