2. Omar Vizquel -- I could imagine the writers going REALLY REALLY REALLY ANTI-STEROID and deciding to hate all home-run hitters for a few years. Omar Vizquel is one of the biggest star hitters of the 90's if you only include those with no power at all.

Plus, Joe Morgan says he should go in. That's the clincher.

One thing I think has to be taken into consideration is that the voters, at least those will be voting on guys who are 30 or so and below right now, will look a lot different then than they do now. It'll be more college types who've read Moneyball and Bill James, probably bloggers or something, hell, who knows. One thing I'm willing to bet is that it won't be the lock-in-step triple-crown-stat-loving newspapermen of today.

Has anybody done the A's yet?

If not:

1. Frank Thomas
2. Carlos Gonzales
3. Greg Smith
4. Kurt Suzuki
5. Whoever the team drafts in the first round this year.
6. Brett Anderson
7. Huston Street
8. Trevor Cahill
9. Daric Barton
10. Mark Ellis (As an executive when he leads the expansion Portland Gutterpunks to 4 championships in the span of a 12 year stint as their gm. Hell, why not?)

And yet...third best record in the AL! Those wacky A's!

Thomas is an obvious definite. After that, of current guys on the roster, the only one with a real non-zero chance would have to be Barton, who has an early start and could perhaps turn into a rich man's Mark Grace. Something like a .300+ career average, 3,000 hits, and 250 home runs from Barton would have to give him a shot. Of course, I'd give that, maybe, a 5-10% chance of happening.

I suppose maybe Street, if he just lasts a long time and racks up a lot of saves. %1 or lower on him. There's also like a .1% chance Joe Blanton lands on with a team like Boston, wins a crapton of games in his 30's and pitches adequately enough for long enough while winning a few titles that he could make it in. If Rich Harden magically became healthy or was turned into a closer and he stayed healthy there, he'd have a shot. His chances of ever being healthy are like 3% though, so his HOF chance wouldn't look pretty. Anyone else associated with the A's is a prospect. Talented, but probably 1 in 10,000 any of them puts it all together to the degree of a HOF career. Everyone else would have to be a complete 0, except maybe Ellis who gets in after managing the Gutterpunks to 4 titles and 7 pennants in 15 years before embarking on a successful 12 year career as their GM that produces 4 more titles ;-)

1. Frank Thomas
2. Carlos Gonzales
3. Greg Smith
4. Kurt Suzuki
5. Whoever the team drafts in the first round this year.
6. Brett Anderson
7. Huston Street
8. Trevor Cahill
9. Daric Barton
10. Mark Ellis


Whither Eric Chavez?

I'll hold my nose and take a stab at the M's:

1. Ichiro -- 100%. He's in if he walks away from the game today (they'll bend the ten-year rule).
2. Adrian Beltre -- 25%. Already has 223 home runs at age 29, and with Gold Glove defense at third, who knows?
3. Felix Hernandez -- 15%. Awesome skills, advantageously young debut. Would be higher, but TINSTAAPP.
4. J.J. Putz -- 5%. Maybe in the future the HoF voters will give a closer bonus.
5. Eric Bedard -- 5%. Hey, he was good last year. Maybe he'll keep doing that for like twelve more years.
6. Yuniesky Betancourt -- 1%. Flashy with the glove, and I enjoy typing his name.
7. Kenji Johjima -- 1%. Some kind of Ichiro! coattail effect?
8. Raul Ibanez -- .5%. Perhaps they'll build a Nice Guy wing someday?
9. Jeff Clement -- .5%. Really raking from the catcher's spot in a quarter-season's worth of AAA at bats means he's got a shot.
10.Wlad Balentien -- .5%. Might be good someday.

Carlos Triunfel, wait your turn.

This list would have been much more fun ten years ago--Griffey, Edgar, Randy, Alex, even Jay . . . .

Carl Crawford has a chance if he gets 3000 hits. He has no chance otherwise.

Disagree...Crawford, I believe, is the only player to raise his BA 6-straight seasons to start a career.

So this is how I see him making the HOF outside of 3,000 hits.



2025 - HOF

2025 - HOF

Cooperstown will waive the five-year requirement after Crawford and his YankMet teammates are taken hostage by Canuck loyalists during a 2019 game at the Rogers Center (so renamed after the U.S. wins the Battle of Toronto.)

Disagree...Crawford, I believe, is the only player to raise his BA 6-straight seasons to start a career.

So this is how I see him making the HOF outside of 3,000 hits.

Didn't quite work out that way for Giambi.

So this is how I see him making the HOF outside of 3,000 hits.

...
2005 - .301
2006 - .305
2007 - .315
2008 - .318
2009 - .327 ...
[10 straight seasons hitting over .330 including 7 seasons over .350]

I'm pretty sure that Crawford would get to 3,000 hits if he hits .300+ for the next 15 seasons, the last 10 of which are over .330, the last 7 of which are over .350.

Not necessarily. What if he averages 100 at-bats a season?

I never realized how unprepared Giambi was for New York. His average went up each of the seven years he was in Oakland, but it will have gone down from the previous year in six of the seven years he's been a Yankee if he doesn't raise it 86 points by the end of this season. So un-clutch. So very un-clutch.

1. Ichiro -- 100%. He's in if he walks away from the game today (they'll bend the ten-year rule).

I would imagine that if Ichiro can keep getting the same sort of counting stats each year that he's posted thus far in his MLB career for, say, another 3 to 5 years, he's in. If, on the other hand, he suddenly drops of a cliff performance wise, there's going to be a hell of a debate about his Hall worthiness.

And I don't think they'll bend the 10 year rule for him, although it's of course likely at this point he'll qualify that way in any event.

Carl Crawford is 26 and already has over 1000 hits. Among the guys on his BBRef comp list are another Crawford (Sam) who is in the HOF; HOFers Yastrzemski and Clemente; Tim Raines, who probably should be in the HOF; Sherry Magee, another talented turn-of-the-century OF who might be in Cooperstown had he played for a good team instead of for the Phillies; and Claudell Washington, the guy I actually think CC is most like in that list.

That said, I don't think Crawford is going to make the HOF unless he plays in the postseason soon. That was, to some extent, Raines's problem; he played on only one postseason team during his prime years, and by the time he was playing on winners again he was past his prime.

-- MWE

And I don't think they'll bend the 10 year rule for him, although it's of course likely at this point he'll qualify that way in any event.

You may have noticed that most of my list was tongue in cheek, and so was that remark. I don't think they'd really do that, and I agree that he probably won't need it in the end.

On the other hand, I think he'll get some kind of credit for his years in Japan, and if it were up to me, I'd credit him almost fully for all of it. The lower level of play over there is more than offset by the shorter seasons, at least where hit totals are concerned, so I consider him already in the 3000-hit club. I think he'll go well over 4000 before he's done.

Oh, and that 1998 Mariner team also had Jamie Moyer and Carlos Guillen, just to torment myself with what could have been.

You may have noticed that most of my list was tongue in cheek, and so was that remark.

My fault for not reading the rest of the list - my interest in the Mariners at present begins and ends with Ichiro...

On the other hand, I think he'll get some kind of credit for his years in Japan, and if it were up to me, I'd credit him almost fully for all of it. The lower level of play over there is more than offset by the shorter seasons, at least where hit totals are concerned, so I consider him already in the 3000-hit club. I think he'll go well over 4000 before he's done.

If the NPB numbers I've just looked up are right, he's at 2908 hits combined right now. The issue of credit for his Japanese years is going to dominate his HOF discussion if, as I said above, he drops off a cliff. Like you, I think he'll be closer to 3,000 than 2,000 MLB hits when he's done, which may well make the discussion moot.

Has anybody done the A's yet?

If not:

1. Frank Thomas
2. Carlos Gonzales
3. Greg Smith
4. Kurt Suzuki
5. Whoever the team drafts in the first round this year.
6. Brett Anderson
7. Huston Street
8. Trevor Cahill
9. Daric Barton
10. Mark Ellis (As an executive when he leads the expansion Portland Gutterpunks to 4 championships in the span of a 12 year stint as their gm. Hell, why not?)

And yet...third best record in the AL! Those wacky A's!

He's got no chance. Suede will never make the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

I'll take a stab at the Reds.

1. Griffey 100%
2. Dunn 30% If Dunn stays healthy, maybe DHs some and ends up with a crazy number of home runs he could make it. He still has to overcome the bias against low BA/high SO
3. Edwin Encarnacion 10% I mention this because Edwin's start is remarkably similar to Tony Perez's, including the errors at third base. So if the Reds win back to back World Series he's got a shot.
4. Johnny Cueto 5%
5. Edinson Volquez 5% Cueto has two years on Voltron. TINSTAAPP
6. Brandon Phillips 1% He'll need a lot of shiney 30-30 seasons.
7. Francisco Cordero <1% The recent closer inductions mean he has a chance if he can Trevor Hoffman for a decade.
8. Aaron Harang <1% I think he'll age well but he has 64 wins at age 30.
9. Jay Bruce and I have to cheat and go to minor leaguers now.
10. Homer Bailey

Long thread ... must pile up comments as I go.

I don't see why people here would have Edmonds in and Giles out.

Excellent offensive peak (for a CF) while winning the GG every year. Also surprised me that Giles is only 1 year younger (in baseball age at least, too lazy to check actual birthdays).

Utley just needs to keep going.

Sure, but he's already 29, 2B don't generally age well (who does?) and HoF has generally been stingy with 2B. He needs 9-10 seasons of full-time play to reach 2000 games which would be quite light for a 2B (Sandberg had about 2200 and he had to wait while people complained about his "short" career). And Utley may or may not deserve them, but he has no GG yet. I'm certainly not ruling it out, but seems to me he needs a Molitor-like late career to have a good shot.

The Cubs list

Call me crazy but ... Ted Lilly belongs on there somewhere. No chance of making it of course but he's on the late-blooming lefty career path (Wells, Moyer of recent vintage). And unlike those two, he's got a good K-rate which leads us to believe he'll age fairly well. Around 200 wins and about 3000 IP are not out of the question ...

Lee's an interesting case. If he's going to be a 300 hitter from here on out, he's got an outside shot at 3000 hits. He's back to his Pujols impression so far this year though I still don't think that's for real. Obviously it's a long-shot (he basically has to duplicate his counting stats from ages 32-40 as he had from 24-31) but he could end up as an Eddie Murray type. (By the way, his K-rate is down substantially this year but he's still showing power ... 1 per 7 AB vs. 1 per 4.5 for his career ... I like that!)

But ARam probably has the better shot. Only 30 and he's already near 800 RBI. Health is an obvious concern but his position could help him (though the HoF seems to hate 3B too). He'll need 500 HR I'd think but he's got a good shot at that. He's been a very good average hitter the last few years and if he can just stay on the field also has an outside shot at 3000 hits. I doubt it -- he seems more the guy who will drop some average for walks and power as he ages ... but if he increases the power, then 500 HR is a real good bet ... if he can stay on the field.

I'd put Soriano substantially behind those two. He's got fewer games played than either and is 32. Does have a shot at 500 HR and I suppose he's the type that ages well, but a 114 career OPS+ for a guy who will be mostly a corner OF (only 764 games at 2B) if he plays long enough to have a legit shot ... even his best years are borderline for a corner OF's career numbers.

2. Omar Vizquel -- I could imagine the writers going REALLY REALLY REALLY ANTI-STEROID and deciding to hate all home-run hitters for a few years. Omar Vizquel is one of the biggest star hitters of the 90's if you only include those with no power at all.

Omar's chances have little to do with steroids (though it won't hurt) and nothing to do with hitting. His chances primarily come down to this:

Ozzie Smith: 2573 games, 13 GG, 87 OPS+, 1st ballot
Omar Vizquel: 2588 games, 11 GG, 84 OPS+
Luis Aparicio: 2601 games, 9 GG, 82 OPS+, 6th ballot

Guys perceived to be great fielding SS who play forever have a pretty good track record (see also Maranville). For what it's worth, Omar has more runs, RBI and a higher BA than Ozzie and Aparicio (they have more SB). All told, Omar has a pretty good chance -- probably better than Larkin. He's certainly easily #1 on the Giants' list.

Given statheads accept Ozzie (they seem not so fond of Aparicio), the stathead anti-Omar argument basically comes down to that, despite the close GG race, Omar wasn't really nearly as good as Ozzie defensively. That's probably true but not that easy to prove (and not necessarily persuasive with HoF voters even if you could).

Carl Crawford is 26 and already has over 1000 hits. Among the guys on his BBRef comp list are another Crawford (Sam) who is in the HOF; HOFers Yastrzemski and Clemente; Tim Raines, who probably should be in the HOF; Sherry Magee, another talented turn-of-the-century OF who might be in Cooperstown had he played for a good team instead of for the Phillies; and Claudell Washington, the guy I actually think CC is most like in that list.

That said, I don't think Crawford is going to make the HOF unless he plays in the postseason soon. That was, to some extent, Raines's problem; he played on only one postseason team during his prime years, and by the time he was playing on winners again he was past his prime.

Of course Crawford has a career 103 OPS+ while those comps averaged a 122 through the same age. Barring a Lou Brock like career, Crawford stands no chance of making the HoF as a corner OF.

By the way, the guys on that list with similar OPS+s are Whitey Lockman, Claudell Washington and Clemente ... so a Clemente transformation could do it for him as well. If you look at OPS+ of 90 to 110 for OF/1B, with 800+ hits through age 25 you get:

Lloyd Waner, 108
Richie Ashburn, 107
Claudell Washington, 105
Carl Crawford, 103
Roberto Clemente, 95
Charlie Grimm, 90

OK, that's not too bad but Ashburn was a CF (a VC selection) and Waner was a VC selection who got in because his brother did. Ashburn had the 2nd highest hit total at 2574. It's too bad -- Crawford probably could play CF but he's been an LF pretty much his whole career. That's a tough set of HoF comps.

If you expand the OPS+ ceiling, you don't get another HoFer until Yaz at a 126 OPS+. You do get a player I've never heard of before though -- Dick Hoblitzel. The HoF isn't really a "lock" until you get to Eddie Murray at 136 and a number of even those higher-ranked HoFers didn't come that close to 3000 hits (Mantle, DiMaggio, Medwick, Foxx, probably Griffey).

Giving Crawford one last chance, I added the requirement of a BA>=290. That clears out some of the dead wood (and you also lose Clemente barely) but doesn't change the impression.

Since it's a wacky conversation related to the HoF, I'll ask a question I posed about four years ago, which was much discussed: Who is this generation's WTF Hall of Famer? I'm fairly sure there will be one. I think the consensus then landed on Moises Alou being the best candidate, taking into account both odds of actually making it and the WTFness if he did.

(The day Tony Perez was elected, I was riding in a car with my dad, and he responded to the radio report with "What the ####? He's not a Hall of Famer!", which always stuck with me.)

(EDIT) Just to change my vote from last time, I'll say Wakefield.

4. Johnny Cueto 5%

These are the sorts of guesses that are ridiculous. Cueto probably has a 5% chance of reaching 2000 IP (#403 all-time, that's not too shabby). If he's one of the, oh, 10 best and most durable pitchers to start his career in the 2000s, he's got a pretty good shot at 2500-3000 IP. If he's one of the 5 best and very, very durable, he's got a shot at the HoF.

Someone else put Verlander at 8%. More reasonable than Cueto at 5% but I recommend you take a look at Mussina ages 23-25. He's got less than an 8% chance at Mussina's career. Or take a look at Oswalt. Verlander's a really nice pitcher but let's see some 140-150ish ERA+, 200+ IP seasons before we even consider his HoF chances.

Even someone like Carlos Zambrano is only maybe 1/3 of the way to an HoF career -- 250 wins, 3000 Ks if you triple his numbers. That puts him basically in Mussina-land. He can afford a drop in quality (ERA+ around 115-120 is usually good enough though I don't think it will be for Mussina) but not really quantity. So he's got the talent -- can he keep it, can he stay healthy? I'd say if you're only 1/3 of the way to the (perhaps borderline) numbers, you're chances are well below 33% of making it ... at least if you're a pitcher.

(though the HoF seems to hate 3B too).

I would presume the historical problem with 2b and 3b (less so) is that for a lot of history, teams took less offense from these positions. And we all know that the Hall of Fame, when it comes to position players, is basically the Hall of Hitting Prowess and Rare Exceptions Who Fielded Historically Well at Premium Defensive Positions. 3b and 2b don't have the cachet of either one.

My WTF HoFer would be Damon or Pierre. Obviously that's if either makes it to 3000 hits and they'll be popular choices. Renteria has a pretty good shot at 3000 hits and plays a position where he's likely to keep getting playing time if healthy, so I'll make it him (though maybe a SS making 3000 hits should never be a WTFer).

What I wonder is if we'll see some power-hitting but otherwise mediocre SS who moves to 2B or somewhere (and plays about half his games there) but ends up with 500 HR. A guy who superficially looks like Ernie Banks but, in context, isn't close.

For truly WTF, I'll make Levski happy and go with Mark Reynolds. A string of 30-40 HR seasons isn't out of the question -- sort of a Vinny Castilla (with more walks) of his day. I don't think he has a chance of surviving with that K-rate but you never know.

I'm still not satisfied -- does K-Rod count as a WTF? He's got a pretty good shot at the saves record (nobody else really seems to).

Here ya go -- Francisco Cordero. "Only" 33, 181 saves -- same age, more saves than Nathan, 147 vs 148 career ERA+. Who knew? He's probably gonna need at least 450 saves ... and Cincy may not have been the best place to go ... but I have faith.

For the Indians, I'd say nobody has even a 20% chance, but there's quite a few with non-neglible chances:

1. Sabathia - great counting stats start; unique body type; will need to go to a decent team as a FA to keep racking up wins;

2. Victor Martinez - great hitter for a catcher; late start in the majors, but that can be an advantage for backstops (i.e. Posada)

3. Sizemore - power and steals, premium defensive position; low BA and high K's are the minuses

4. Hafner - late start; big time DH penalty

5. Fausto Carmona - looking good as a 24-year old starter, but a long way to go

6. Peralta - major longshot, but if he can recapture '05, he could be right back in the conversation

7-10. Lee, Asdrubal Cabrera, Franklin Gutierez, Laffey (young guys)

Angels

1) Vlad 100%

Nobody else reaches 10%, but here's what they have to do to get in:

2) Ervin Santana - Last night's game vs KC was just the beginning. He goes on to win 20 games, then in 2009 takes his game to the next level, striking out 300 and reminding some of Pedro Martinez. Not likely, but for a starting pitcher to get in he's got to win 300, or have a historically dominant peak.

3) Howie Kendrick - He'll have to put the hand and leg injuries behind him and accumulate some PA to do this. Howie returns and finishes 2008 with a .357 batting average, the first of 6 batting titles in his career. Though he hits over 20 HR in a season once, and never takes more than 46 walks in a year, Howie's .325 career average and 2,677 hits eventually get him in, thanks to his walkoff triple to win the 2013 world series.

4) John Lackey - older than Ervin, without quite as great an arm, so I can't see him moving from excellent pitcher to historically dominant. Not that Ervin will, just that he has a theoretical chance. Big John will have to make his 2008 DL trip his last, pitch 220 innings a year until his early 40's, and win 300 games.

5) Francisco Rodriguez - Though many have predicted it from watching his delivery, his arm never falls off. Assuming 700 saves actually impresses people 20 years into the future, that might be his ticket

6) Brandon Wood. Right now he's got 2 career homers. 498 to go...

7) Garret Anderson. 3000 hits might not be enough for him, with his lack of other credentials. Very unlikely to reach that either, as he looks pretty close to done right now.

8) Torii Hunter. He's been a good player. What are the odds that at age 32 he starts doing things he's never done before? Kind of like the late career blooming of Luis Gonzalez? Not likely, and even if it happened, still probably not enough for the HOF, Gonzalez isn't making it.

9) Casey Kotchman. Excellent player, but the Mark Grace/Wally Joyner type isn't going to be enough, even if he can stay healthy long enough. Needs to up his game like Rafael Palmeiro, and not get caught doing it.

10) Jered Weaver. If everything broke right for Weaver from here on out, the 99th percentile of his career might look like Bert Blyleven's. Too bad Bert's career is not enough to impress the voters.

Of course Crawford has a career 103 OPS+ while those comps averaged a 122 through the same age.

I know that, but HOF voters don't normally take OPS+ into account, especially for someone like Crawford who adds steals to the mix. My guess is that as long as Crawford continues to hit .300, ranks near the top of the league in steals, and piles up the career numbers, he'll be taken seriously as a HOF candidate.

Waner was a VC selection who got in because his brother did

Not entirely. The speedy, singles-hitting CF was not all that uncommon in Little Poison's era - Earle Combs, Jo-Jo Moore, Jo-Jo White, Ernie Orsatti - and he was widely considered at the time to be the best of the bunch. Brother Paul didn't hurt his case, true, but it's a mistake to think that Lloyd wasn't considered to be a good player in his own right.

-- MWE

As a WTF HOFer, how about Javy Vazquez? He has more Ks through age 30 than any active pitcher besides Pedro, and he leads the AL in Ks this year. He'll have to stop underperforming DIPS to get the ERA down, but he has a good chance to breeze past 3000 Ks.

As a WTF HOFer, how about Javy Vazquez?

Let me know when he passes Blyleven in career wins. He's sure not getting in on peak performance. Career best ERA+ is 139, wins is 16. Don Sutton passed those marks 3 and 7 times respectively, passed 300 wins, and the voters still made him wait awhile, because he was never considered great.