Fukudome is going to be a complete bust. Any team that hopes to get more than a fourth outfielder's production out of him next year will be severely disappointed.

I would guess that if Kosuke Fukudome wanted to get a personalized license plate with his surname, Fukudome, on it, he would be denied. The DMV would think it was meant to say, "F### You, do me." I hope no American announcers mistakenly mispronounce his name in that way, when he comes over.

Anyone care to venture a guess as to how wildly he gets overpaid?

I can't wait for Chip Caray to announce a game he's in.

Fukudome is going to be a complete bust. Any team that hopes to get more than a fourth outfielder's production out of him next year will be severely disappointed.

Agreed.

if his new team builds a stadium, can they call it the Fukudome?

No. It has to be the Fukudomedome.

Who will take him? The Giants?

edit - broken social scene and kevin drew are coming to these fine shores - nice!

terror in the ####-you dome!

His name is really going to be a boon for hecklers around the league if he arrives.

Fukudome is going to be a complete bust. Any team that hopes to get more than a fourth outfielder's production out of him next year will be severely disappointed.

Agreed.

Nice analysis, guys.

He hits for good average, walks a lot, and has decent power. Yeah, he's 30 and coming off a season cut short by injury, but what's really not to like?

Plus, he can at least notionally play center field, and he won't require draft pick compensation.

if his new team builds a stadium, can they call it the Fukudome?

Before a month ago or so, I thought that that was the name of a Japanese stadium. I'll bet that I'm not the only one.

Before a month ago or so, I thought that that was the name of a Japanese stadium.

Thinking of the Fukuoka Dome, perhaps?

Could be, CHiJ. Truth is, I don't really follow Japanese baseball that much, As I get older, I have a hard enough time keeping up with my home team, let alone the rest of the majors. I am aware of the perfecto that ended their World Series, had heard the name Yu Darvish, know that Bobby V manages there and Trey Hillman used to, and saw them play in the World Cup, but that's about it. I may have to turn in my Primer membership card.

Any team that hopes to get more than a fourth outfielder's production out of him next year will be severely disappointed.

If he can't play in MLB, then there's no position player left in Japan who can. He has the best numbers of any player in NPB over the last 4 years. When I ran his projection, his most comparables were Bobby Abreu, JD Drew, and Milton Bradley. I can see why those guys are considered disappointments, but they aren't 4th outfielders either.

Can't we get beyond Fukudome?

Any team that hopes to get more than a fourth outfielder's production out of him next year will be severely disappointed.

I dunno, levski. I think a lot of teams could use a Melky Cabrera.

Well, Fukudome REALLY cannot handle centerfield defensively.

We don't need another hero
We don't need to know the way home
All we want's a fourth outfielder
Like Fukudome

AROM, I'm sure your projections are good (and actually I'd like to see them). My WAG is that Fukudome gives you .280 batting average/.340 on base percentage with 12-15 home runs as a right/left fielder in 2008. If that happens, a team that signs him expecting great power numbers will be probably disappointed, especially if he gets a huge contract. That was my point.

How do you guys rate Japanese defense?

From rotoworld

LHP Hitoki Iwase announced Monday that he will remain in Japan rather than pursue an MLB career.

The lefty closer has 40 saves in each of the past three seasons and no doubt would have had plenty of offers given the success of Japanese relievers coming to America. "I've wanted to continue my playing career in the place where I grew up,'' Iwase said. "I made up my mind soon after I first spoke with the front office."
Source: JapanBall.com

Does anyone know if Koji Uehara is a free agent, and if he's interested in coming to the states? He was converted to a closer for the 2007 season and posted dominant numbers in that role.


[EDIT]

While we're at it, John Beamer takes a look back at the underwhelming season that Dice-K had in Boston this year...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/matsuzaka-mania/

Hideo Nomo he wasn't.

Levski, that's not too far off my projection, though I have him as getting on base a little better than that. I don't think he's a major power hitter over here, but then I haven't read anything about him claiming otherwise - I have seen speculation that he'd be a 15-20 HR guy.

My projection on Fukudome. I have the major leaguers done and today I'm going to try and make some progress on the minor leaguers.

Fukudome looks pretty good in that projection. I still don't think the Cubs should go after him unless they're going to use Pie to get a SS or corner outfielder.

So AROM, you're basically projecting him to have a better "rookie" season here than Hideki Matsui did. Given that Matsui was the considerably better player in Japan (and ironically was considered a gold glove centerfielder to boot), I find your projection just a tad on the optimistic side. Just a tad.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/matsuhi01.shtml

Unless Fukudome ends up in Colorado, I think he'll struggle to reach your projection. He might do OK with the Cubs, given their ball park and the other ballparks in the NL central, but I'd expect lower OBP and lower SLG from him. In fact, I really have a hard time seeing him with OPS+ over 100.

I don't think he's a better player than Matsui. I have him as better than Matsui's rookie year, but not as good as the four year's he's had since. Matsui just had an off year as he came over. I don't think there's anything to it as far as an "adjustment period" if that's what you're getting at. Ichiro didn't need an adjustment period. Neither did Iguchi, or Johjima. My projection is him coming over and playing to my best estimate of his ability, immediately. And because of his age, it would have him declining every year after, but I'm not doing multiyear projections.

I actually played around with multiyear projections, but I won't publish them. I hate them. I hate other people's multiyear projections, and after trying it myself, I hate mine too. I don't think they can be any more useful than knowing a player's current projection and his age.

> He might do OK with the Cubs

Fukodome v. Jacque Jones.

I have him as better than Matsui's rookie year, but not as good as the four year's he's had since. Matsui just had an off year as he came over.

That's fair.

How do Fukudome's Japanese numbers compare to Hideki Matsui'?

The DMV would think it was meant to say, "F### You, do me." I hope no American announcers mistakenly mispronounce his name in that way, when he comes over.

I hope they do. Preferably any of the Fox announcers. And maybe they can get fired for it. One can dream.

Fukudome stats in Japan

Average line .305/.397/.543

Matsui stats in Japan

Average line: .304/.413/.582

Fukudome hit over 30 home runs a year only twice in his career; Matsui averaged 33 home runs/season in his 10 year career in Japan.

I know that they keep changing the rules, but is this different than Mastuzaka? Since he's a free agent in Japan will there be a posting, or can he just come to the US and negotiate like any MLB free agent?

I know that they keep changing the rules, but is this different than Mastuzaka? Since he's a free agent in Japan will there be a posting, or can he just come to the US and negotiate like any MLB free agent?

I believe he is a free agent free to negotiate with anyone without a posting fee. Chunichi does have a four year offer on the table. Matsuzaka, unless I'm mistaken, was not a free agent until he was posted by his club.

How do Fukudome's Japanese numbers compare to Hideki Matsui'?

I ran Godzilla's last 4 seasons through the same process as I did for Fukudome - I have no idea if the relative league strength has changed since then.

Matsui:
1999: 282/362/504
2000: 294/381/525
2001: 309/404/509
2002: 310/406/547

Its a bit better than he's done in the majors, but these should be his prime years, ages 25-28. Put that together with his actual line with the Yankees, and it seems to fit.

"Fukudome hit over 30 home runs a year only twice in his career; Matsui averaged 33 home runs/season in his 10 year career in Japan."

That's actually kind of a good thing, as far as I'm concerned. With Japanese parks being as small as they are, HR power doesn't always translate as well as other skills (IIRC).

From what I can tell, Fukudome is pretty much a dead pull hitter, so the characteristics of his new home park could have a lot of impact on his line.

Matsuzaka, unless I'm mistaken, was not a free agent until he was posted by his club.

Now that you mention it, I seem to recall in one of the couple dozen Matsuzaka threads that people were saying that he could sign a one-year contract with his Japanese team and then come to the US free and clear. Or maybe it was two years because of some different rules and he wouldn't be a free agent until the season started or something.

Last year he hit 13 homers (269 AB) - 9 to right, 2 to left, 2 to center.

In 2006, it was 31 - 7 to center, 7 to left, 17 to right.

That Japanbaseballdaily site is awesome.

Screw Fukudome. The guy I want to see them bring in from japan is Hard Gay.

(he's not a baseball player, but there is an actual guy on TV who goes around acting really homosexual, and he calls himself Hard Gay. It's absolutely hilarious)

Does anyone know if Koji Uehara is a free agent, and if he's interested in coming to the states? He was converted to a closer for the 2007 season and posted dominant numbers in that role.

he was only hitting 140 km/h on the FB. It could get real ugly.

Now this is the kind of analysis I was hoping for! Nicely done, gentlemen!

Matsuzaka was never a free agent. He was under contract with Seibu and he could only negotiate with the team that made the highest bid. That's the posting system.

A Japanese free agent is a true free agent, able to sign with any team he wishes.

If you see that a guy "will be posted", that means there's a negotiation fee.

If you see that a guy is a "free agent", that means that any team can sign him.

Thanks, CFiJ.

Free agency and arbitration are only for MLB time, right? So if he signs a 4 year contract, he'll only be eligible for arbitration at the end of it, right, not free agency again? That's kind of weird for him to be a free agent now, but be restricted later. Although I guess it's the same as the Latin American players who sign when they're 18. They can sign with whoever they want for whatever contract they can get. It's just that they're younger and don't reach the majors right away.

Kosuke Fukudome is Japanese for "Geoff Jenkins"

So if he signs a 4 year contract, he'll only be eligible for arbitration at the end of it, right, not free agency again? That's kind of weird for him to be a free agent now, but be restricted later.

It's pretty standard for players coming over from Japan to have non-arb clauses in their contracts to avoid this exact issue.

It's pretty standard for players coming over from Japan to have non-arb clauses in their contracts to avoid this exact issue.

Ah, I didn't know that could be in a contract.

It's pretty standard for players coming over from Japan to have non-arb clauses in their contracts to avoid this exact issue.

Like Hideki Matsui, or Tadahito Iguchi. It's why Iguchi is not going to cost a pick.

CFiJ, how good is Yu Darvish? Any chance we'll ever see him on this side of the Pacific? He had a great season this year.