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Agreed.
edit - broken social scene and kevin drew are coming to these fine shores - nice!
Nice analysis, guys.
He hits for good average, walks a lot, and has decent power. Yeah, he's 30 and coming off a season cut short by injury, but what's really not to like?
Before a month ago or so, I thought that that was the name of a Japanese stadium. I'll bet that I'm not the only one.
Thinking of the Fukuoka Dome, perhaps?
If he can't play in MLB, then there's no position player left in Japan who can. He has the best numbers of any player in NPB over the last 4 years. When I ran his projection, his most comparables were Bobby Abreu, JD Drew, and Milton Bradley. I can see why those guys are considered disappointments, but they aren't 4th outfielders either.
I dunno, levski. I think a lot of teams could use a Melky Cabrera.
We don't need to know the way home
All we want's a fourth outfielder
Like Fukudome
LHP Hitoki Iwase announced Monday that he will remain in Japan rather than pursue an MLB career.
The lefty closer has 40 saves in each of the past three seasons and no doubt would have had plenty of offers given the success of Japanese relievers coming to America. "I've wanted to continue my playing career in the place where I grew up,'' Iwase said. "I made up my mind soon after I first spoke with the front office."
Source: JapanBall.com
Does anyone know if Koji Uehara is a free agent, and if he's interested in coming to the states? He was converted to a closer for the 2007 season and posted dominant numbers in that role.
[EDIT]
While we're at it, John Beamer takes a look back at the underwhelming season that Dice-K had in Boston this year...
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/matsuzaka-mania/
Hideo Nomo he wasn't.
My projection on Fukudome. I have the major leaguers done and today I'm going to try and make some progress on the minor leaguers.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/matsuhi01.shtml
Unless Fukudome ends up in Colorado, I think he'll struggle to reach your projection. He might do OK with the Cubs, given their ball park and the other ballparks in the NL central, but I'd expect lower OBP and lower SLG from him. In fact, I really have a hard time seeing him with OPS+ over 100.
I actually played around with multiyear projections, but I won't publish them. I hate them. I hate other people's multiyear projections, and after trying it myself, I hate mine too. I don't think they can be any more useful than knowing a player's current projection and his age.
Fukodome v. Jacque Jones.
That's fair.
I hope they do. Preferably any of the Fox announcers. And maybe they can get fired for it. One can dream.
Average line .305/.397/.543
Matsui stats in Japan
Average line: .304/.413/.582
Fukudome hit over 30 home runs a year only twice in his career; Matsui averaged 33 home runs/season in his 10 year career in Japan.
I believe he is a free agent free to negotiate with anyone without a posting fee. Chunichi does have a four year offer on the table. Matsuzaka, unless I'm mistaken, was not a free agent until he was posted by his club.
I ran Godzilla's last 4 seasons through the same process as I did for Fukudome - I have no idea if the relative league strength has changed since then.
Matsui:
1999: 282/362/504
2000: 294/381/525
2001: 309/404/509
2002: 310/406/547
Its a bit better than he's done in the majors, but these should be his prime years, ages 25-28. Put that together with his actual line with the Yankees, and it seems to fit.
That's actually kind of a good thing, as far as I'm concerned. With Japanese parks being as small as they are, HR power doesn't always translate as well as other skills (IIRC).
From what I can tell, Fukudome is pretty much a dead pull hitter, so the characteristics of his new home park could have a lot of impact on his line.
Now that you mention it, I seem to recall in one of the couple dozen Matsuzaka threads that people were saying that he could sign a one-year contract with his Japanese team and then come to the US free and clear. Or maybe it was two years because of some different rules and he wouldn't be a free agent until the season started or something.
In 2006, it was 31 - 7 to center, 7 to left, 17 to right.
That Japanbaseballdaily site is awesome.
(he's not a baseball player, but there is an actual guy on TV who goes around acting really homosexual, and he calls himself Hard Gay. It's absolutely hilarious)
Does anyone know if Koji Uehara is a free agent, and if he's interested in coming to the states? He was converted to a closer for the 2007 season and posted dominant numbers in that role.
he was only hitting 140 km/h on the FB. It could get real ugly.
Matsuzaka was never a free agent. He was under contract with Seibu and he could only negotiate with the team that made the highest bid. That's the posting system.
A Japanese free agent is a true free agent, able to sign with any team he wishes.
If you see that a guy "will be posted", that means there's a negotiation fee.
If you see that a guy is a "free agent", that means that any team can sign him.
Free agency and arbitration are only for MLB time, right? So if he signs a 4 year contract, he'll only be eligible for arbitration at the end of it, right, not free agency again? That's kind of weird for him to be a free agent now, but be restricted later. Although I guess it's the same as the Latin American players who sign when they're 18. They can sign with whoever they want for whatever contract they can get. It's just that they're younger and don't reach the majors right away.
It's pretty standard for players coming over from Japan to have non-arb clauses in their contracts to avoid this exact issue.
Ah, I didn't know that could be in a contract.
Like Hideki Matsui, or Tadahito Iguchi. It's why Iguchi is not going to cost a pick.
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